By Lee Schipper, Project Scientist, Global Metropolitan Studies, University of California, Berkeley, and Senior Research Engineer, Precourt Energy Efficiency Center, Stanford University. Presented at the World Resources Institute. January 22, 2010.

1. Fuel Economy or Fools Economy: Lessons and Lemons in the Race to Decarb Work Funded by EMBARQ and WRI at Global Metropolitan Studies 2008-2009 Lee Schipper, Ph.D. Global Metropolitan Studies, Univ. of California, Berkeley CA 94707 USA Also Senior Project Engineer Precourt Institute for Energy Efficiency Stanford University

4. Transport- CO2 Wedges: Avoid and Shift, but also Improve/Mitigate A void CO2-Intensive Development: Singapore Land Use Planning, Congestion Pricing S hift and Strengthen: Mexico City Metrobus I mprove and Mitigate: True Low Carbon Fuels I mprove and Mitigate: Efficient Vehicles

5. . Real Automobile Fuel Economy – All Fuels When the Rubber Hits The Road in MPG Schipper 201? (TRB 2008; submitted to Trans. Policy) Diesel and LPG converted to equivalent gasoline on an energy content basis . Source, L Schipper, based on official national data The Proposed US Standards from 2016 are shown in green

7. Per Capita Travel and GDP 1970-2007 Are We At a Plateau? Millard-Ball and Schipper TRB 2010

10. Dieselization in Europe: Where are the Savings? Relative to Gasoline, Diesel Shows Little Energy or CO2 Savings Moreover, Driving Distances Larger Where to put the Prius? PHEV? BEV? (Schipper and Fulton TRR 2009) Source:` official national data

13. Car Use, Fuel Intensity vs. Fuel Price, 1998 Source IEA- See also Johansson and Schipper 1997 JTEP (JS) JS (1997)- Overall Price elasticity of car fuel close to -1: Mostly Fuel Economy, 0.3 VKT, -0.1 ownership

14. Fuel Consumption - Curb Weight For MY2005 Vehicles Source Prof. John Heywood, MIT 10 1/13/10 Fuel economy (mpg) 50 40 30 25 20 15 10 12 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Curb weight (kg) Fuel consumption (L/100km) Fuel economy (mpg) 50 40 30 25 20 15 10 12 50 40 30 25 20 15 10 12 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Curb weight (kg) Fuel consumption (L/100km)

16. Electric Cars: EEV’s*? Plug In Hybrid: When to gas, when to charge? *”Elsewhere Emissions Vehicles” The CO2 and Oil Impact of EEV‘s Not a Simple Matter of Calculation

18. Vehicle size/power Vehicle technology and fuels Improving Car Fuel Economy/CO 2 Getting The Right Balance (original S Winkleman/CCAP) Vehicle Use, Traffic Can be covered by F.E. Standards Not Covered by Standards

22. . Trends in New Vehicle Fuel Economy Test and “On Road”: Where is C4C? MPG data from ORNL Data book; C4C from US DOT. Test reduced 20% to “on road”

23. Car Use and Car Age in 2001 – Older Means Less Driving (Relationships Have Held for 30 Years) Source:` official national data

34. [email_address] ; mrmeter@stanford.edu The Ultimate Clunker? – Absorbs its own CO2 but Does not Fix Transport Policy Thank You

35. “ Efficiency” Improving Everywhere

36. Efficiency Only Feeding Pep Zip (power/weight) and Weight Look the Same