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Rand Fishkin | Founder & CEO
Building Influence
As web marketing undergoes its biggest shift in a decade,
how we influence audiences needs to evolve.
Bit.ly/sparkinfluence2019
Influencer Marketing
Discover all the sources that influence your audience.
Do marketing (of all kinds) in those places.
2012
Influencer Marketing
Pay half naked people on Instagram
to post a photo with your product.
2019
Why is Influencer Marketing Getting All the Attention?
ViaGoogleTrends
And So Much Investment?
ChartviaMediaKix
*EstimateviaMozcirca2018
For comparison, SEO spend globally is ~$20-30B*
IMO, Data Like This Creates Irrational Bias
ViaPew
Instead of “Where are *our* customers?”,
Too many marketers ask “Which platform’s biggest?”
Potential Sources of Influence:
Podcasts
Events
Mainstream Media
Trade Journals
Whitepapers
Radio
Television
Guerilla Marketing
Branded Publications
Blogs
Twitter
YouTube Channels
Industry Reports
Facebook GroupsWeb Searches
Email Newsletters
Consumer Review Pubs
Instagram
Where “Influencer Marketing” is Done:
Podcasts
Events
Mainstream Media
Trade Journals
Whitepapers
Radio
Television
Guerilla Marketing
Branded Publications
Blogs
Twitter
YouTube Channels
Industry Reports
Facebook GroupsWeb Searches
Email Newsletters
Consumer Review Pubs
Instagram
ViaPew, Journalism.org,eMarketer,Statista
Reality Check: Attention & Influence Happen Everywhere
• Desktop devices average ~800
distinct pages viewed per
month
• Mobile devices averaged ~300
distinct pages viewed per
month
• Slight decrease in mobile
browser pageviews over time
(possibly cannibalized by apps)
• In March 2019, users viewed
2,350 unique pages on desktop
and 680 unique pages on
mobile (monthly counts in the
graph count multiple visits to
the same URL per month as 1)
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
Jan-16
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Avg.#ofPageViews
Average Distinct Pages Viewed Per Device by Month
Mobile Desktop
Despite the Growth of Apps & Domination of Big Tech
Monopolies, the Web Remains a Vibrant, Diverse Ecosystem
Where Should We Do Influence Marketing?
Wherever Our Audience Engages.
The Major Shifts Impacting
Search, Social,
Content, & Advertising
And How Marketers Can Best React
Search
SearchLove Boston 2019 - Rand Fishkin - Building Influence in 2019
Here’s Why That Should Scare
Web Creators…
Google Needs Growth, & It’s Not Coming From
New Searchers (at least in developed countries)
-
5,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
15,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
25,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
35,000,000,000
40,000,000,000
Jan-16
Feb-16
M
ar-16
A
pr-16
M
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Jun
-16
Jul-16
A
ug
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Sep-16
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Jan-17
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Jun
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Jan-19
Feb-19
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U.S. Searches by Month (web browsers only)
Google Desktop Google Images Desktop Google Mobile Google Images Mobile
3 Theories of Plateauing Search Demand
2: Voice search and mobile apps are cannibalizing queries
(e.g.GoogleHome,GoogleAssistant,andtheirSearchApp)
1: Google’s getting better at solving searches the first time
(sosearchersdon’tneedtoperformmorequeries)
3: Alternatives to Google are taking market share
(e.g.Facebook,Instagram,DuckDuckGo,YouTube,andAmazon)
Theory 1: Google’s Removing the Need for Multiple
Queries on the Same Topic(s)
They Do This Through Web Result Replacements…
Content Scraping that Precludes a Click-Through
Giving Their Own Properties Preferential Treatment
And More Telepathic, Direct-to-the-Answer Results.
Theory 2: Voice Search & Mobile Apps Are
Cannibalizing Queries
ViaPerficientDigital’s2019Surveyof1,719people
ViaHigherVisibility’s2018Survey
of2,017SmartphoneOwners
Unfortunately, we don’t yet have real data, just
surveys (which, historically, are poor representations
of how people actually behave).
Theory 3: Alternatives to Google Are Taking Market Share
-
10,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
40,000,000,000
50,000,000,000
60,000,000,000
Jan-16
Feb-16
M
ar-16
Apr-16
M
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Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
M
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Apr-17
M
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Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
M
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Apr-18
M
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Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
M
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Desktop Share of Searches by Month
Google Google Images Google Maps YouTube Bing Yahoo Facebook
Amazon Twitter Pinterest DuckDuckGo AOL Ask Wikipedia
ViaJumpshot’sclickstreampanelof10mm+devicesintheUS,browserdataonly(noapps)
-
500,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
Jan-16
M
ar-16M
ay-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
N
ov-16
Jan-17
M
ar-17M
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Jul-17
Sep-17
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Jan-18
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Jul-18
Sep-18
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Jan-19
M
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Search Volumes by Month Under 2.5B
Bing Yahoo Facebook Amazon
Twitter Pinterest DuckDuckGo AOL
Ask Wikipedia
-
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
350,000,000
Jan-16
M
ar-16M
ay-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
N
ov-16
Jan-17
M
ar-17M
ay-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
N
ov-17
Jan-18
M
ar-18M
ay-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
N
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Jan-19
M
ar-19
Search Volumes by Month Under 350M
Twitter Pinterest DuckDuckGo AOL Ask Wikipedia
ViaJumpshot’sclickstreampanelof10mm+devicesintheUS,browserdataonly(noapps)
Amazon’s Searched ~1/30th as Much as Google, But…
50,000
500,000
5,000,000
50,000 500,000 5,000,000
GOOGLESEARCHES
AMAZON SEARCHES
Search Volumes for Top 1K Branded and Nonbranded Amazon Keywords on Google and Amazon (2018)
Nonbranded Terms Branded Terms Nonbranded Avg Branded Avg
nintendo switch
laptop
headphones
kindle
ps4
bluetooth headphones
prime video
external hard drive
paper towels
iPhone 7 case
cbd oil
water bottle
iPhone charger
food
lingerie
dog
iPhone xr
adidas
aa batteries
roku
mens socks
monitor
christmas
audible
sheets
What About Search on Instagram?
-
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
Jan
-16
M
ar-16
M
ay-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
N
ov-16
Jan
-17
M
ar-17
M
ay-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
N
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Jan
-18
M
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M
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Jul-18
Sep-18
N
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Jan
-19
M
ar-19
Instagram Hashtag Clicks by Month (Desktop)
IG’s grown ~2.5X on desktop (at a time when desktop overall
shrank). Still <0.1% of Google’s desktop search volume.
3 Theories of Plateauing Search Demand
2: Voice search and mobile apps are cannibalizing queries
(e.g.GoogleHome,GoogleAssistant,andtheirSearchApp)
1: Google’s getting better at solving searches the first time
(sosearchersdon’tneedtoperformmorequeries)
3: Alternatives to Google are taking market share
(e.g.Facebook,Instagram,DuckDuckGo,YouTube,andAmazon)
These two are probably happening.
The third, not so much.
What’s Google Doing to
Grow Ad Revenue?
#1: Larger numbers
of more subtle ads
#2: More kinds of ads
Google’s Desktop
CTRs March 2019 (US):
Paid: 6.1%
Organic: 65.3%
Zero Click
Searches: 34.7%
*Note:Sumsaregreaterthan100%assomesearchersclickmultipleresultsperquery
Google’s Mobile CTRs March 2019 (US):
*Note:Sumsaregreaterthan100%assomesearchersclickmultipleresultsperquery
Paid: 9.5%
Organic: 38.4%
Zero Click
Searches: 61.6%
How Do These Changes Affect Searcher Behavior?
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
Jan-16
M
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M
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Jul-16
Sep-16
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Jan-17
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Jul-17
Sep-17
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M
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Jan-19
M
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Desktop Organic CTR, Paid CTR, and Zero Click Searches (2016-2019)
Desktop Organic Clickthroughs Desktop Paid Clicks Desktop Zero Clicks
Desktop Zero-Click Searches
Up ~12% in 3 Years
On Mobile, Those Effects Are Magnified
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19
Mobile Organic CTR, Paid CTR, and Zero-Click Searches (2016-2019)
Mobile Clickthroughs Mobile Paid Clicks Mobile Zero Clicks
Mobile Zero-Click Searches
Up ~20% in 3 Years
Google’s 2019 ABCs:
Biasing Visibility & Clicks to Paid Results
Answering Queries in SERPs & Sending Out Less Traffic
Competing Directly with Publishers
(andrankingtheirownpropertiesaheadofanyoneelse’s)
How Can Search Marketers
React?
Control Your Brand with On-SERP SEO
ID sites that rank in
your space, & build
profiles on them
Claim Your Panels
Leverage the
Rich Snippets
Google Offers
When KWs Show
Aggregated Answers,
Influence the Publishers
Below to Get Listed
To Get Into These…
Get Mentioned + Listed In These
Double Down on Branded Demand Creation
e.g. Elvie’s #FreeTheFeed
campaign got Londoners
searching and sharing to
create brand awareness
(and bias future
searches/clicks)
If Other Sites Can Rank,
But You Can’t (Yet);
Use Barnacle SEO
Every one of these sites
enables user-submitted
or guest editorial
contributions
Shift SEO-Focused Content to KWs
Google Is Less Likely to Cannibalize
ViaAhrefs
40%+ of all searches get <100
searches per month. The long
tail is still a gold mine for SEO.
500-30,000+ searches/month,
and hyper-competitive
ViaKeywordExplorer
But scroll down, and the long
tail still looks mighty attractive
ViaKeywordExplorer
Use CTR % Estimates in Your KW Research
This metric uses clickstream data
to estimate the % of searchers
who’ll click on the standard, non-
paid, organic SERPs
Social
Social Followers’ Engagement Rates
Have Fallen to Near-Zero
ViaRivalIQ2019
IMO: 10,000 Instagram Followers < 100 Emails
ViaRivalIQ2019
Social
Follower
Email
Address
Avg
Engagement/
Post or Email
Ability to
Retarget?
Reach on
Other
Platforms
Ability to Get
Audience
Data
Direct
Outreach
Possible?
20.81%*
* Via Mailchimp
Yes,Anywhere Yup. Tons. Yes.
1.73%*
Onlyonthat
Network
Nope. Onlywhatthe
networkgivesyou.
No.
* Via RivalIQ
Social’s Traffic is Still Paltry Compared to Search
Via
Google.com
Oct 2016
Facebook.com
Reddit.com
YouTube.com
Imgur.com
Bing.com
Wikipedia.org
Gained/Lost
59.2%
6.5%
5.4%
4.5%
2.2%
2.2%
1.4%
Yahoo.com 6.0%
-1.4%
-1.3%
-2.0%
+0.3%
-1.2%
+1.5%
-0.1%
-1.7%
Amazon.com 1.3% +0.1%
Top Traffic Referrers Feb 2018
57.8%
5.2%
3.4%
4.8%
1.0%
3.7%
1.3%
4.3%
1.4%
Though It’s Sending a Little More Traffic Than Before
Mostly, That’s FB Groups, Pinterest, & Instagram
Instagram Has Always Prevented Outlinking
Now They May Be Targeting the “Link in Bio”
Via AgoraPulse
AgoraPulse’sexperimentfounda34% decrease inavg.reachwhenapost
containedthephrase“linkinbio”orsimilar.
YouTube Cuts Off Descriptions to Avoid
Making Links Visible in the Default View
On Mobile… They
Hide Them Entirely
Twitter & LinkedIn Bias Against Posts with Links
Via
MarginallyCoherent
And All of Them Push Content
that Engages > Content That’s
“Shared”
Crazy high impressions…
Relatively few retweets?
The tweets that engage
people ON Twitter >
high metric tweets that
contain links L
How Can Social Marketers
React?
Engagement Streaks Rule Social
Happy Dance!
Sad Trombone.
Social Algorithms Are Designed to:
Engage
Addict
Retain
Does this content attract users,
generate likes/shares, & hold their
attention?
Do users who see this content
stay on our platform and keep
engaging?
Do users who’ve consumed this
content return to our platform
again & again?
When I have a low engagement
post, my next post has a harder
time reaching a big audience.
When a post gets high
engagement, FB boosts the reach
of my next post (unless it starts to
show poor engagement)
In this way, Facebook (& Twitter,
Instagram, LinkedIn, etc) reward high
engagement streaks and makes
accounts w/ low engagement invisible.
To benefit from
this system, use a
formula like this:
High engagement,
non-promotional post
High engagement,
non-promotional post
Promotion w/ CTA
High engagement,
non-promotional post
These earn brand
exposure & new
followers
High engagement,
non-promotional post
To benefit from
this system, use a
formula like this:
High engagement,
non-promotional post
High engagement,
non-promotional post
Promotion w/ CTA
High engagement,
non-promotional post
These capitalize on
your algorithmic
reputation for high
engagement, &
earn direct traffic
High engagement,
non-promotional post
To Build Brand on
Social, We Need:
2) Contentthatisobviously
connectedtothebrand
1) Contentthatearnshigh
engagement&amplification
3) Contentthatcreatesemotional
resonance(bestdonethrough
compellingstories)
Use Latent vs. Active Links to Your Site
That’s what I’m
talking ‘bout!
That’s not so
bad, either J
Content + Social = Awareness
Awareness + Awesomeness = Conversion
Content
For 15 Years, Content Marketing
Worked Great Like This…
Content
Flywheel
2001-2016
KW Research +
Industry Intuition
Publish
Content
Promote via
Social Channels
Push to email +
RSS subscribers
Earn Links +
Amplification
Grow social, email,
RSS, & WoM channels
Grow Authority &
Brand Recognition
Earn Search &
Referral Traffic
Rank Higher, Get
More Traffic
But, in 2019, Four Forces Work Against This Model
#2 Targeting keywords with “good, unique content” no
longer clears the high bar for earning rankings or shares
#1 Demands for monetization and growth have pushed
tech monopolies to become publishers’ competitors
#3 Amplifiers are more skeptical and jaded than ever
before, and rarely spread commercial content
#4 Traffic quantity correlates less & less with conversions
How Can Marketers
React?
Successful Content Targets Topics that Resonate
with Amplifiers, Not Just Customers
What Your
Customers Care
About
What Influential
Publications &
People Your
Customers Listen
To Care About
Topics with
high potential
reach
The Most Visited Piece the NYT Ever Published?
Dialect Quiz Map via NY Times
Grabs you fast, then
demands engagement
Plays to the psychological
desire for categorizing
oneself & others
Creates a viral loop
(through sharing & seeing
friends’ answers)
What Makes Content Rank in 2019?
#2 Effectively uses the words, phrases, & concepts Google
associates w/ the query topic (and nails basic KW-matching, too)
#1 Hosted on a domain + subdomain that’s earned a large
number of diverse, high quality links AND had relatively strong
performance in solving searchers’ queries
#3 Earns links, shares, traffic, and engagement to the page itself
#4 Can answer the simplest parts of searcher intent w/o a click
Hosted on the Right Domain & Subdomain
Powerful, long-running
sites with loads of links,
engagement, traffic, and
other positive signals
Effectively, Accurately, & Comprehensively Covers the Topic
Use the right words, cover the
facts, be accurate, & you rank
Via The Economist
Earns Links, Shares, Traffic, & Engagement
Both the “state-by-
state guide,” AND the
“hottest breweries right
now” lists earn top
spots thanks to links,
shares, traffic, &
engagement
Can Answer (Simplest Parts of) the Query Without a Click
Can Answer (Simplest Parts of) the Query Without a Click
Outranks the official Moz
docs, in part because they
offer the answer in a
SERP-ready snippet
Content as Product
When creating
content products, ask:
What unique value does this
deliver (that no one else does)?
Why will publications and people
amplify/link to this?
How does this create competitive
advantage with barriers to entry?
Explore by Site inside Keyword Explorer
Content Doesn’t Have to Be Conversion Focused!
Visitor
Content that Converts them
to Take Action Right Now
Visitor
Content that Creates a
Positive, Memorable
Brand Experience
7-20XEventual
Conversion
Not the
Only W
ay!
Content → Email Subscriber → Conversion
“A visitor who reaches us via search is 1/19th as likely
to subscribe as one who comes in from a
newsletter; a reader coming in from Facebook is
1/12th; and a reader coming in from Twitter is 1/6th.”
-Nicholas Thompson, Editor in Chief
Via Wired
VS.
Visitor
Email
Subscriber
Conversion
~2% ~10%
Visitor Conversion
~0.2%
W
rong!
Visitor Conversion
+
Visitor
Email
Subscriber
Conversion
~0.2%
~2% ~10%
These are additive,
not competitive!
Advertising
The Late Adopters Are Finally Crossing the
Digital Marketing Chasm
Via Geoffrey Moore
These players have lots of $$$,
entrenched brands, & are used to
overpaying for untrackable advertising
Venture Dollars Are Also Flooding Ad Markets
Via PWC/MoneyTree
Investment Dollars Aren’t Seeking Profits…
Just Growth
Via Statista
Ad Bids in Many Sectors Go Far Above
What’s Profitable
Thus, Ad Costs Go Up, While ROI Trends Down
Via BusinessInsider
And Ad Tracking Getting Much Harder
Which Will Reinforce Large Quantities of “Dumb
Money” > More Trackable Advertising
The concept of a 90-day look back
window is a wrap. Retargeting beyond 7
days is dead. Effectively, for a sales cycle of
any realistic length, the whole concept of
attribution outside of last click is over.
Via iPullRank
Influencer Marketing is Even Harder to Track
Via Linqia
And Accountability is a Massive Issue
Via TheDrum
“I do campaigns for brands on a weekly
basis and less than half ever come back for
metrics; less than 50% ever want to know
what’s happened. That makes me think it’s
PRs playing a numbers game and once a
campaign has gone no one is really
interested.”
How Can Advertisers
React?
The Most Followed Account(s) that Match a Keyword Search
Traditional Influencer Marketing Seeks Out:
The Most-Reachable Account(s) that Match a Keyword Search
OR
But That’s Not Really What We Want…
Targeting on Audience Size > Audience Match
4mm followers
Followed by 19% of
profiles that frequently
talk about “supercars”
What You Really Want: People & Publications Your Audience
Engages With Most
Small overall following, but reaches
exactly who we want to reach!
How?
Nooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!
Surveys & Interviews!
First: Organic + Brand; Then: Ads + CRO
If you’re not yet known, liked,
& trusted, ad ROI sucks.
Via Wordstream
New to a market?
This happens.
Known & loved?
Welcome to Profitville.
How to Win at Digital Advertising in 2019
Step 2: Earn brand exposure through organic, social,
content, SEO, events, & targeted brand marketing
Step 3: Get >1 organic visit (or a social engagement)
Step 4: Pay to advertise where your audience engages to
those who already know+like you
Step 1: Interview, survey, or use profile data to discover
where your audiences engage (and with whom/what)
Influence
Let’s Evolve How We Create
Ready?
Rand Fishkin | Founder & CEO
Thank You!
Bit.ly/sparkinfluence2019

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SearchLove Boston 2019 - Rand Fishkin - Building Influence in 2019

  • 1. Rand Fishkin | Founder & CEO Building Influence As web marketing undergoes its biggest shift in a decade, how we influence audiences needs to evolve.
  • 3. Influencer Marketing Discover all the sources that influence your audience. Do marketing (of all kinds) in those places. 2012
  • 4. Influencer Marketing Pay half naked people on Instagram to post a photo with your product. 2019
  • 5. Why is Influencer Marketing Getting All the Attention? ViaGoogleTrends
  • 6. And So Much Investment? ChartviaMediaKix *EstimateviaMozcirca2018 For comparison, SEO spend globally is ~$20-30B*
  • 7. IMO, Data Like This Creates Irrational Bias ViaPew Instead of “Where are *our* customers?”, Too many marketers ask “Which platform’s biggest?”
  • 8. Potential Sources of Influence: Podcasts Events Mainstream Media Trade Journals Whitepapers Radio Television Guerilla Marketing Branded Publications Blogs Twitter YouTube Channels Industry Reports Facebook GroupsWeb Searches Email Newsletters Consumer Review Pubs Instagram
  • 9. Where “Influencer Marketing” is Done: Podcasts Events Mainstream Media Trade Journals Whitepapers Radio Television Guerilla Marketing Branded Publications Blogs Twitter YouTube Channels Industry Reports Facebook GroupsWeb Searches Email Newsletters Consumer Review Pubs Instagram
  • 10. ViaPew, Journalism.org,eMarketer,Statista Reality Check: Attention & Influence Happen Everywhere
  • 11. • Desktop devices average ~800 distinct pages viewed per month • Mobile devices averaged ~300 distinct pages viewed per month • Slight decrease in mobile browser pageviews over time (possibly cannibalized by apps) • In March 2019, users viewed 2,350 unique pages on desktop and 680 unique pages on mobile (monthly counts in the graph count multiple visits to the same URL per month as 1) 0 150 300 450 600 750 900 Jan-16 M ar-16 M ay-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 N ov-16 Jan-17 M ar-17 M ay-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 N ov-17 Jan-18 M ar-18 M ay-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 N ov-18 Jan-19 M ar-19 Avg.#ofPageViews Average Distinct Pages Viewed Per Device by Month Mobile Desktop Despite the Growth of Apps & Domination of Big Tech Monopolies, the Web Remains a Vibrant, Diverse Ecosystem
  • 12. Where Should We Do Influence Marketing? Wherever Our Audience Engages.
  • 13. The Major Shifts Impacting Search, Social, Content, & Advertising And How Marketers Can Best React
  • 16. Here’s Why That Should Scare Web Creators…
  • 17. Google Needs Growth, & It’s Not Coming From New Searchers (at least in developed countries) - 5,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 15,000,000,000 20,000,000,000 25,000,000,000 30,000,000,000 35,000,000,000 40,000,000,000 Jan-16 Feb-16 M ar-16 A pr-16 M ay-16 Jun -16 Jul-16 A ug -16 Sep-16 O ct-16 N ov-16 D ec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 M ar-17 A pr-17 M ay-17 Jun -17 Jul-17 A ug -17 Sep-17 O ct-17 N ov-17 D ec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 M ar-18 A pr-18 M ay-18 Jun -18 Jul-18 A ug -18 Sep-18 O ct-18 N ov-18 D ec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 M ar-19 U.S. Searches by Month (web browsers only) Google Desktop Google Images Desktop Google Mobile Google Images Mobile
  • 18. 3 Theories of Plateauing Search Demand 2: Voice search and mobile apps are cannibalizing queries (e.g.GoogleHome,GoogleAssistant,andtheirSearchApp) 1: Google’s getting better at solving searches the first time (sosearchersdon’tneedtoperformmorequeries) 3: Alternatives to Google are taking market share (e.g.Facebook,Instagram,DuckDuckGo,YouTube,andAmazon)
  • 19. Theory 1: Google’s Removing the Need for Multiple Queries on the Same Topic(s)
  • 20. They Do This Through Web Result Replacements…
  • 21. Content Scraping that Precludes a Click-Through
  • 22. Giving Their Own Properties Preferential Treatment
  • 23. And More Telepathic, Direct-to-the-Answer Results.
  • 24. Theory 2: Voice Search & Mobile Apps Are Cannibalizing Queries ViaPerficientDigital’s2019Surveyof1,719people
  • 25. ViaHigherVisibility’s2018Survey of2,017SmartphoneOwners Unfortunately, we don’t yet have real data, just surveys (which, historically, are poor representations of how people actually behave).
  • 26. Theory 3: Alternatives to Google Are Taking Market Share - 10,000,000,000 20,000,000,000 30,000,000,000 40,000,000,000 50,000,000,000 60,000,000,000 Jan-16 Feb-16 M ar-16 Apr-16 M ay-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 M ar-17 Apr-17 M ay-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 M ar-18 Apr-18 M ay-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 M ar-19 Desktop Share of Searches by Month Google Google Images Google Maps YouTube Bing Yahoo Facebook Amazon Twitter Pinterest DuckDuckGo AOL Ask Wikipedia ViaJumpshot’sclickstreampanelof10mm+devicesintheUS,browserdataonly(noapps)
  • 27. - 500,000,000 1,000,000,000 1,500,000,000 2,000,000,000 2,500,000,000 Jan-16 M ar-16M ay-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 N ov-16 Jan-17 M ar-17M ay-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 N ov-17 Jan-18 M ar-18M ay-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 N ov-18 Jan-19 M ar-19 Search Volumes by Month Under 2.5B Bing Yahoo Facebook Amazon Twitter Pinterest DuckDuckGo AOL Ask Wikipedia - 50,000,000 100,000,000 150,000,000 200,000,000 250,000,000 300,000,000 350,000,000 Jan-16 M ar-16M ay-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 N ov-16 Jan-17 M ar-17M ay-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 N ov-17 Jan-18 M ar-18M ay-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 N ov-18 Jan-19 M ar-19 Search Volumes by Month Under 350M Twitter Pinterest DuckDuckGo AOL Ask Wikipedia ViaJumpshot’sclickstreampanelof10mm+devicesintheUS,browserdataonly(noapps)
  • 28. Amazon’s Searched ~1/30th as Much as Google, But… 50,000 500,000 5,000,000 50,000 500,000 5,000,000 GOOGLESEARCHES AMAZON SEARCHES Search Volumes for Top 1K Branded and Nonbranded Amazon Keywords on Google and Amazon (2018) Nonbranded Terms Branded Terms Nonbranded Avg Branded Avg nintendo switch laptop headphones kindle ps4 bluetooth headphones prime video external hard drive paper towels iPhone 7 case cbd oil water bottle iPhone charger food lingerie dog iPhone xr adidas aa batteries roku mens socks monitor christmas audible sheets
  • 29. What About Search on Instagram? - 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 Jan -16 M ar-16 M ay-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 N ov-16 Jan -17 M ar-17 M ay-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 N ov-17 Jan -18 M ar-18 M ay-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 N ov-18 Jan -19 M ar-19 Instagram Hashtag Clicks by Month (Desktop) IG’s grown ~2.5X on desktop (at a time when desktop overall shrank). Still <0.1% of Google’s desktop search volume.
  • 30. 3 Theories of Plateauing Search Demand 2: Voice search and mobile apps are cannibalizing queries (e.g.GoogleHome,GoogleAssistant,andtheirSearchApp) 1: Google’s getting better at solving searches the first time (sosearchersdon’tneedtoperformmorequeries) 3: Alternatives to Google are taking market share (e.g.Facebook,Instagram,DuckDuckGo,YouTube,andAmazon) These two are probably happening. The third, not so much.
  • 31. What’s Google Doing to Grow Ad Revenue? #1: Larger numbers of more subtle ads #2: More kinds of ads
  • 32. Google’s Desktop CTRs March 2019 (US): Paid: 6.1% Organic: 65.3% Zero Click Searches: 34.7% *Note:Sumsaregreaterthan100%assomesearchersclickmultipleresultsperquery
  • 33. Google’s Mobile CTRs March 2019 (US): *Note:Sumsaregreaterthan100%assomesearchersclickmultipleresultsperquery Paid: 9.5% Organic: 38.4% Zero Click Searches: 61.6%
  • 34. How Do These Changes Affect Searcher Behavior? 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% Jan-16 M ar-16 M ay-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 N ov-16 Jan-17 M ar-17 M ay-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 N ov-17 Jan-18 M ar-18 M ay-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 N ov-18 Jan-19 M ar-19 Desktop Organic CTR, Paid CTR, and Zero Click Searches (2016-2019) Desktop Organic Clickthroughs Desktop Paid Clicks Desktop Zero Clicks Desktop Zero-Click Searches Up ~12% in 3 Years
  • 35. On Mobile, Those Effects Are Magnified 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 Mobile Organic CTR, Paid CTR, and Zero-Click Searches (2016-2019) Mobile Clickthroughs Mobile Paid Clicks Mobile Zero Clicks Mobile Zero-Click Searches Up ~20% in 3 Years
  • 36. Google’s 2019 ABCs: Biasing Visibility & Clicks to Paid Results Answering Queries in SERPs & Sending Out Less Traffic Competing Directly with Publishers (andrankingtheirownpropertiesaheadofanyoneelse’s)
  • 37. How Can Search Marketers React?
  • 38. Control Your Brand with On-SERP SEO ID sites that rank in your space, & build profiles on them Claim Your Panels Leverage the Rich Snippets Google Offers
  • 39. When KWs Show Aggregated Answers, Influence the Publishers Below to Get Listed To Get Into These… Get Mentioned + Listed In These
  • 40. Double Down on Branded Demand Creation
  • 41. e.g. Elvie’s #FreeTheFeed campaign got Londoners searching and sharing to create brand awareness (and bias future searches/clicks)
  • 42. If Other Sites Can Rank, But You Can’t (Yet); Use Barnacle SEO Every one of these sites enables user-submitted or guest editorial contributions
  • 43. Shift SEO-Focused Content to KWs Google Is Less Likely to Cannibalize ViaAhrefs 40%+ of all searches get <100 searches per month. The long tail is still a gold mine for SEO.
  • 45. But scroll down, and the long tail still looks mighty attractive ViaKeywordExplorer
  • 46. Use CTR % Estimates in Your KW Research This metric uses clickstream data to estimate the % of searchers who’ll click on the standard, non- paid, organic SERPs
  • 48. Social Followers’ Engagement Rates Have Fallen to Near-Zero ViaRivalIQ2019
  • 49. IMO: 10,000 Instagram Followers < 100 Emails ViaRivalIQ2019
  • 50. Social Follower Email Address Avg Engagement/ Post or Email Ability to Retarget? Reach on Other Platforms Ability to Get Audience Data Direct Outreach Possible? 20.81%* * Via Mailchimp Yes,Anywhere Yup. Tons. Yes. 1.73%* Onlyonthat Network Nope. Onlywhatthe networkgivesyou. No. * Via RivalIQ
  • 51. Social’s Traffic is Still Paltry Compared to Search Via Google.com Oct 2016 Facebook.com Reddit.com YouTube.com Imgur.com Bing.com Wikipedia.org Gained/Lost 59.2% 6.5% 5.4% 4.5% 2.2% 2.2% 1.4% Yahoo.com 6.0% -1.4% -1.3% -2.0% +0.3% -1.2% +1.5% -0.1% -1.7% Amazon.com 1.3% +0.1% Top Traffic Referrers Feb 2018 57.8% 5.2% 3.4% 4.8% 1.0% 3.7% 1.3% 4.3% 1.4%
  • 52. Though It’s Sending a Little More Traffic Than Before
  • 53. Mostly, That’s FB Groups, Pinterest, & Instagram
  • 54. Instagram Has Always Prevented Outlinking
  • 55. Now They May Be Targeting the “Link in Bio” Via AgoraPulse AgoraPulse’sexperimentfounda34% decrease inavg.reachwhenapost containedthephrase“linkinbio”orsimilar.
  • 56. YouTube Cuts Off Descriptions to Avoid Making Links Visible in the Default View
  • 57. On Mobile… They Hide Them Entirely
  • 58. Twitter & LinkedIn Bias Against Posts with Links Via MarginallyCoherent
  • 59. And All of Them Push Content that Engages > Content That’s “Shared” Crazy high impressions… Relatively few retweets?
  • 60. The tweets that engage people ON Twitter > high metric tweets that contain links L
  • 61. How Can Social Marketers React?
  • 62. Engagement Streaks Rule Social Happy Dance! Sad Trombone.
  • 63. Social Algorithms Are Designed to: Engage Addict Retain Does this content attract users, generate likes/shares, & hold their attention? Do users who see this content stay on our platform and keep engaging? Do users who’ve consumed this content return to our platform again & again?
  • 64. When I have a low engagement post, my next post has a harder time reaching a big audience.
  • 65. When a post gets high engagement, FB boosts the reach of my next post (unless it starts to show poor engagement)
  • 66. In this way, Facebook (& Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn, etc) reward high engagement streaks and makes accounts w/ low engagement invisible.
  • 67. To benefit from this system, use a formula like this: High engagement, non-promotional post High engagement, non-promotional post Promotion w/ CTA High engagement, non-promotional post These earn brand exposure & new followers High engagement, non-promotional post
  • 68. To benefit from this system, use a formula like this: High engagement, non-promotional post High engagement, non-promotional post Promotion w/ CTA High engagement, non-promotional post These capitalize on your algorithmic reputation for high engagement, & earn direct traffic High engagement, non-promotional post
  • 69. To Build Brand on Social, We Need: 2) Contentthatisobviously connectedtothebrand 1) Contentthatearnshigh engagement&amplification 3) Contentthatcreatesemotional resonance(bestdonethrough compellingstories)
  • 70. Use Latent vs. Active Links to Your Site That’s what I’m talking ‘bout! That’s not so bad, either J
  • 71. Content + Social = Awareness Awareness + Awesomeness = Conversion
  • 73. For 15 Years, Content Marketing Worked Great Like This…
  • 74. Content Flywheel 2001-2016 KW Research + Industry Intuition Publish Content Promote via Social Channels Push to email + RSS subscribers Earn Links + Amplification Grow social, email, RSS, & WoM channels Grow Authority & Brand Recognition Earn Search & Referral Traffic Rank Higher, Get More Traffic
  • 75. But, in 2019, Four Forces Work Against This Model #2 Targeting keywords with “good, unique content” no longer clears the high bar for earning rankings or shares #1 Demands for monetization and growth have pushed tech monopolies to become publishers’ competitors #3 Amplifiers are more skeptical and jaded than ever before, and rarely spread commercial content #4 Traffic quantity correlates less & less with conversions
  • 77. Successful Content Targets Topics that Resonate with Amplifiers, Not Just Customers What Your Customers Care About What Influential Publications & People Your Customers Listen To Care About Topics with high potential reach
  • 78. The Most Visited Piece the NYT Ever Published? Dialect Quiz Map via NY Times Grabs you fast, then demands engagement Plays to the psychological desire for categorizing oneself & others Creates a viral loop (through sharing & seeing friends’ answers)
  • 79. What Makes Content Rank in 2019? #2 Effectively uses the words, phrases, & concepts Google associates w/ the query topic (and nails basic KW-matching, too) #1 Hosted on a domain + subdomain that’s earned a large number of diverse, high quality links AND had relatively strong performance in solving searchers’ queries #3 Earns links, shares, traffic, and engagement to the page itself #4 Can answer the simplest parts of searcher intent w/o a click
  • 80. Hosted on the Right Domain & Subdomain Powerful, long-running sites with loads of links, engagement, traffic, and other positive signals
  • 81. Effectively, Accurately, & Comprehensively Covers the Topic Use the right words, cover the facts, be accurate, & you rank Via The Economist
  • 82. Earns Links, Shares, Traffic, & Engagement Both the “state-by- state guide,” AND the “hottest breweries right now” lists earn top spots thanks to links, shares, traffic, & engagement
  • 83. Can Answer (Simplest Parts of) the Query Without a Click
  • 84. Can Answer (Simplest Parts of) the Query Without a Click Outranks the official Moz docs, in part because they offer the answer in a SERP-ready snippet
  • 85. Content as Product When creating content products, ask: What unique value does this deliver (that no one else does)? Why will publications and people amplify/link to this? How does this create competitive advantage with barriers to entry? Explore by Site inside Keyword Explorer
  • 86. Content Doesn’t Have to Be Conversion Focused! Visitor Content that Converts them to Take Action Right Now Visitor Content that Creates a Positive, Memorable Brand Experience 7-20XEventual Conversion Not the Only W ay!
  • 87. Content → Email Subscriber → Conversion “A visitor who reaches us via search is 1/19th as likely to subscribe as one who comes in from a newsletter; a reader coming in from Facebook is 1/12th; and a reader coming in from Twitter is 1/6th.” -Nicholas Thompson, Editor in Chief Via Wired
  • 91. The Late Adopters Are Finally Crossing the Digital Marketing Chasm Via Geoffrey Moore These players have lots of $$$, entrenched brands, & are used to overpaying for untrackable advertising
  • 92. Venture Dollars Are Also Flooding Ad Markets Via PWC/MoneyTree
  • 93. Investment Dollars Aren’t Seeking Profits… Just Growth Via Statista
  • 94. Ad Bids in Many Sectors Go Far Above What’s Profitable
  • 95. Thus, Ad Costs Go Up, While ROI Trends Down Via BusinessInsider
  • 96. And Ad Tracking Getting Much Harder Which Will Reinforce Large Quantities of “Dumb Money” > More Trackable Advertising The concept of a 90-day look back window is a wrap. Retargeting beyond 7 days is dead. Effectively, for a sales cycle of any realistic length, the whole concept of attribution outside of last click is over. Via iPullRank
  • 97. Influencer Marketing is Even Harder to Track Via Linqia
  • 98. And Accountability is a Massive Issue Via TheDrum “I do campaigns for brands on a weekly basis and less than half ever come back for metrics; less than 50% ever want to know what’s happened. That makes me think it’s PRs playing a numbers game and once a campaign has gone no one is really interested.”
  • 100. The Most Followed Account(s) that Match a Keyword Search Traditional Influencer Marketing Seeks Out: The Most-Reachable Account(s) that Match a Keyword Search OR But That’s Not Really What We Want…
  • 101. Targeting on Audience Size > Audience Match 4mm followers Followed by 19% of profiles that frequently talk about “supercars”
  • 102. What You Really Want: People & Publications Your Audience Engages With Most Small overall following, but reaches exactly who we want to reach!
  • 105. First: Organic + Brand; Then: Ads + CRO If you’re not yet known, liked, & trusted, ad ROI sucks.
  • 106. Via Wordstream New to a market? This happens. Known & loved? Welcome to Profitville.
  • 107. How to Win at Digital Advertising in 2019 Step 2: Earn brand exposure through organic, social, content, SEO, events, & targeted brand marketing Step 3: Get >1 organic visit (or a social engagement) Step 4: Pay to advertise where your audience engages to those who already know+like you Step 1: Interview, survey, or use profile data to discover where your audiences engage (and with whom/what)
  • 108. Influence Let’s Evolve How We Create Ready?
  • 109. Rand Fishkin | Founder & CEO Thank You! Bit.ly/sparkinfluence2019