Weitere ähnliche Inhalte Ähnlich wie The future of the business landscape: What's in store for companies? (20) Mehr von Deloitte United States (20) Kürzlich hochgeladen (20) The future of the business landscape: What's in store for companies?1. The Future of the Business Landscape: What's in Store for Companies?
John Hagel, Director, Deloitte Consulting LLP
Tamara Samoylova, Senior Manager, Deloitte Services LP 2. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Driving forces for fragmentation
Business landscape of the future
Potential roles for Fortune 500 companies
Question and answer
Contents 3. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
“There's something happening here, what it is ain't exactly clear”
–Buffalo Springfield 4. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Fragmentation to individual providers
Neither one gives institutions much comfort
There are two dominant perspectives
“Micro-Work”
VS.
Concentration where only the largest survive
Our perspective: Both outcomes will co-exist and reinforce each other.
“Winner Takes All” 5. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Large companies or smaller companies seeking to grow rapidly will need to understand these three questions:
•Which parts of the economy are fragmenting?
•Which parts of the economy are concentrating?
•How will various ecosystem players interact?
Corporate growth will come from certain areas
Understanding the trends is essential
Understanding the trends could help companies focus in the areas of the economy best suited for growth. 7. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Etsy is an online marketplace for independent sellers
Let’s begin with a case study
• 30M+ members
• Projected $1B in sales for 2013
• 1.5B+ page views per month
• 1M+ new members each month
900,000 independent
shops
Makers, DIYers,
small businesses
Sellers in 150+
countries
8. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Etsy is an example of fragmentation and concentration
What exactly is happening?
Fragmentation
•Increasing number of smaller players addressing diverse consumer needs
•Competing on specialization, personalization, and customization
•Examples: Food trucks
•Consolidating number of large-scale players that are tightly focused on single business activity or function
•Competing on scale and scope
•Examples: Logistics operators
Symbiotic & Reinforcing
Concentration
Economy 9. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Concentrated players emerge to support fragmentation
Three forces are driving fragmentation
Advances in technology
Shifts in choices and values
Public policy liberalization
Fragmentation
Exponential improvements in core digital infrastructure reduce barriers to entry and participation.
General trend toward public policy liberalization makes it easier to start and manage business at any scale.
Individuals’ desire for autonomy in professional life makes it less likely to participate in larger companies. 10. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Back to our story…
• 30M+ members
• Projected $1B in sales for 2013
• 1.5B+ page views per month
• 1M+ new members each month
Fragmentation
Concentration
Symbiotic &
Reinforcing
900,000 independent
shops
Makers, DIYers,
small businesses
Sellers in 150+
countries
11. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Quirky is a web platform that crowdsources inventions
Another case study
Platform
Quirky inventors
Platform
•Quirky operates on a web platformthat crowdsources inventions.
•GE’s vast intellectual property (and manufacturing capabilities) also represents a platform.
•Inventors are fragmented players that leverage the resources of GE’s and Quirky’s platforms.
Quirky
General Electric 12. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
3D printing allows individuals to rapidly prototype ideas
One more example 14. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
•Provide the physical infrastructure, digital aggregation, and mass agent capability
•Tightly focused on single business activity or function
Concentrated players will compete on scale and scope
Scale, scope operators will concentrate
Infrastructure providers
Manufacturing
Logistics
Digital tech infra.
Facilities mgmt.
Back office
Aggregation platforms
Social
Content
Data
Broker/market
Finance
Agent businesses
Consumer
Talent
…
…
…
Risk management
Scale & Scope Operators 15. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Niche players will compete on personalization
Niche operators will fragment
Niche operators
• Serve diverse
consumer needs
and provide
personalized,
localized services
and opportunities
• Compete on
specialization and
customization
• Focus on product
development and
commercialization
• Supported by
scale & scope
Operators
Domain
Experts
Mom &
Pop
Makers
Individual
Consumer Creator
Coders
Investors
Artists
Infrastructure
providers
Manufacturing
Logistics
Digital tech infra.
Facilities mgmt.
Back office
Aggregation
platforms
Social
Content
Data
Broker/market
Finance
Agent
businesses
Consumer
Talent
…
…
…
Risk management
16. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
•Mobilizers are orchestrators among platforms and operators that provide learning opportunities and facilitate collaboration.
Mobilizers will facilitate learning and collaboration
Mobilizers will bring ecosystem together
Mobilizers
Flash orgs
Creation spaces
Communities of action
Open source
Process networks
Infrastructure standard setter
…
Mobilizers
Infrastructure providers
Manufacturing
Logistics
Digital tech infra.
Facilities mgmt.
Back office
Aggregation platforms
Social
Content
Data
Broker/market
Finance
Agent businesses
Consumer
Talent
…
…
…
Risk management
Domain Experts
Mom & Pop
Makers
Individual
Consumer
Creator
Coders
Investors
Artists 17. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Focusing on a particular role will enable rapid learning
Focused players will interact
Domain
Experts
Mom &
Pop
Makers
Individual
Consumer Creator
Coders
Angels
Artists
Infrastructure
providers
Manufacturing
Logistics
Digital tech infra.
Facilities mgmt.
Back office
Aggregation
platforms
Social
Content
Data
Broker/market
Finance
Agent
businesses
Consumer
Talent
…
…
…
Risk management
Mobilizers
Flash orgs
Creation spaces
Communities of
action
Open source
Process
networks
Infrastructure
standard setter
…
19. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Focusing around scale & scope roles will enable growth
Fortune 500 companies will need to focus
Product business
Platform
Infrastructure
Agent
•Provide scale intensive, high-volume, routine processing activities as an outsource service.
•Aggregate resources and vendors, and connect them with appropriate users or customers.
•Provide specific recommendations based on full understanding of each customer. 20. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Embraced fragmented players could help IKEA amplify innovation
IKEA could become a platform
From making products…
…to embracing ecosystem 21. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
1.Understand and embrace fragmentation.
2.DO NOT compete with the fragmented players.
3.Focus around scale and scope roles.
4.Re-position products/services as platforms to accommodate more fragmented players and expand value offered to customers.
5.Connect and collaborate with mobilizers.
But Fortune 500 “winners” will have same characteristics
Transformation speed is industry-specific 22. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Do not rely solely on forecasts, look for signals
Future may be closer than we think
Source: American Heritage Magazine —http://www.americanheritage.com/articles/magazine/it/2007/3/2007_3_8.html, quoted by Vinod Khosla, Khosla Ventures April 2009
Many forecasts are often based on linear projections and thus are often wrong in the exponential world.
Forecast
Actual
Analyst forecast for the U.S. mobile subscribers (1980 => 2000)
> 0.9M
> 109M 23. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
http://dupress.com/articles/heros-journey-landscape-future/
A hero’s journey through the landscape of the future
The forces of the Big Shift are driving both
fragmentation and consolidation, fundamentally
changing the nature of the relationships among
businesses. 24. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
John Hageljhagel@deloitte.com
Tamara Samoylovatsamoylova@deloitte.com
Contact info 25. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
This presentation contains general information only and Deloitte is not, by means of this presentation, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services. This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services, nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business. Before making any decision or taking any action that may affect your business, you should consult a qualified professional advisor. Deloitte shall not be responsible for any loss sustained by any person who relies on this presentation. 26. About DeloitteDeloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee, and its network of member firms, each of which is a legally separate and independent entity. Please see www.deloitte.com/aboutfor a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited and its member firms. Please see www.deloitte.com/us/aboutfor a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte LLP and its subsidiaries. Certain services may not be availabletoattest clients under the rules and regulations of public accounting. Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited