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Investec Asset Management
It wasn’t the end of the world… so now what?”
The Senate Group – 14th March 2013
Agenda

● Challenges facing low risk investors             Morkel Kincaid



● “It wasn’t the end of the world… So now what?”   Sumesh Chetty



● Questions and answers




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Developed market interest rates tell the story

Developed market short-term interest rates: UK (Clearing bank rate, 0.50%),
US (Fed funds rate, 0.25%), EU (repo rate, 0.75%)
                        6



                        5



                        4
   Interest rates (%)




                        3



                        2



                        1



                        0
                            2007




                                        2008




                                                                  2009




                                                                                         2010




                                                                                                       2011




                                                                                                                      2012
                                   UK Clearning Banks Base Rate          US Fed Funds Rate      Euro Zone Repo Rate


Source: I-Net Bridge
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A liquidity wave has driven risk assets over the short term
12-month asset class returns to end February 2013

 135                                                                                                                                                                                                                   SA Listed Property:   35.7%
 130


 125


 120                                                                                                                                                                                                                   FTSE/JSE All Share:   19.3%

 115
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       SA All Bond Index:    14.3%
 110


 105                                                                                                                                                                                                                   SA Cash               5.4%
 100


   95




                                                                                                                                                          Nov -12



                                                                                                                                                                           Dec -12
                                                                                      Jul -12
                  Mar -12




                                                         May -12




                                                                                                             Aug -12



                                                                                                                       Sep -12
        Feb -12




                                    Apr -12




                                                                   Jun -12




                                                                                                                                          Oct -12




                                                                                                                                                                                               Jan -13



                                                                                                                                                                                                             Feb -13
                   FTSE/JSE All Share !BS(J203T,E,100)             SA All Bond Index !BS(JAPI05[TP],E,100)                SA Cash !BS(STFIND[CL],E,100)                SA Listed Property !BS(J253T,E,100)




                                                2010                         2011                            2012                Q3 2012                       Q4 2012                    Jan 2013                     Feb 2013      YTD

 ALSI                                         18.98%                         2.6%                       26.7%                      7.26%                            10.34%                   3.23%                      -1.89%      1.27%
 ALBI                                         14.96%                         8.8%                       16.0%                      5.00%                            2.60%                    0.07%                      0.66%       0.73%

 SA Cash                                      6.93%                          5.7%                        5.5%                      1.36%                            1.30%                    0.43%                      0.39%       0.82%
 Listed Property                              29.62%                         8.9%                       35.9%                    10.98%                             2.75%                    0.99%                      4.64%       5.68%

Source: I-Net Bridge
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It’s been a golden decade for SA asset classes

Performance over 10 years (annualised)
 20%
                     18.7%
 18%

 16%

 14%

 12%
                                                     10.4%
 10%
                                                                                       8.2%
   8%

   6%                                                                                                                  5.5%


   4%

   2%

   0%
         Average General Equity Fund          Average Bond Fund            Average Money Market Fund       Average Foreign Equity Fund



Source: Morningstar, to 31 December 2012, based in Rands. Returns are calculated on a bid-to-bid basis, net of fees, with gross
income reinvested; indices are all gross of fees
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Driving SA bond yields to record lows

                  7.2                                                                                                9.0
                                                                                       JPMorgan GBI-EM Index (LHS)
                   7
                                                                                       R208 Govt bond (RHS)          8.5
                  6.8




                                                                                                                           R208 Government bond (%)
                  6.6
                                                                                                                     8.0
 JPM GBI-EM (%)




                  6.4

                  6.2                                                                                                7.5

                   6
                                                                                                                     7.0
                  5.8

                  5.6
                                                                                                                     6.5
                  5.4

                  5.2                                                                                                6.0
                    Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11   Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12   Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13



Source: Bloomberg as at 18 February 2013 and I-Net-Bridge
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Are income funds still relevant?
SA interest rates
Keeping cash rates negative in real terms

SA real returns
    6.0%

    5.0%

    4.0%

    3.0%

    2.0%

    1.0%

    0.0%

   -1.0%
        2000    2001    2002    2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013




Source: Investec Asset Management
Page 8 | CONFIDENTIAL
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Interest rates are expected to remain lower for longer




Source: Investec Asset Management
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The market has changed
Opportunities still exist... they're just harder to find
Opportunities exist to achieve meaningful real returns



                         Active management



    Meaningful
    real returns




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Active management over the years has been crucial
        20%
               Inflation linked bonds
        18%
               Bonds
        16%
               Cash
        14%

        12%

        10%

        8%

        6%

        4%

        2%

        0%

        -2%
                   2007         2008    2009   2010   2011   2012



Source: I-Net Bridge
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Active management
Will be crucial in a low return environment
SA fixed income team                                                         London fixed income team
● SA Duration                                                                ● Offshore Duration
● SA Credit                                                                  ● Offshore Credit
● Listed Property                                                            ● Currencies exposure
● Rand Hedge                                                                 ● EM exposure

USD/ZAR exchange rate




Source: I-Net Bridge and Investec Asset Management as at 31 December 2012.
Page 13 | CONFIDENTIAL
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Opportunities exist to achieve meaningful real returns



                         Active management



    Meaningful
                         Corporate credit
    real returns




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Corporate bonds remain the bright spot
Quality corporates offering higher yields than government bonds

Returns in excess of government bonds1                                                            ● Corporate SA has a very
                                                                                                    strong balance sheet
                                                                                                  ● Corporate bonds now offering
                                                                                                    2-3% p.a above government
                                                                                                    bonds




                                          AAA
        We only invest in                 AA
        investment grade
           instruments                    A
                                          BBB

1Creditspreads per rating band calculated as average of spreads of each bond against its companion benchmark government bond
Source: RMB as at 31 December 2012.
Page 15 | CONFIDENTIAL
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Opportunities exist to achieve meaningful real returns



                         Active management



    Meaningful
                         Corporate credit
    real returns



                         A global universe – a larger opportunity set




Page 16 | CONFIDENTIAL
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Global fixed income offers a broad opportunity set

Annual Returns in USD for different fixed income asset types – best to worst
  2000      2001     2002      2003    2004    2005     2006     2007     2008     2009    2010    2011    2012

 13.5%     I8.9%     22.0%     27.9%   23.0%   6.3%    15.2%    18.1%     13.9%    60.9%   15.7%   9.6%    18.9%
                                                                                                                   Highest   ● Returns vary
                                                                                                                   return
                                                                                                                               significantly across the
  9.2%      6.7%     11.6%     18.5%   12.1%   3.7%    10.8%    11.5%     10.1%    22.0%   15.3%   5.2%    16.8%
                                                                                                                               range of fixed income
  6.6%      4.2%     11.4%     16.9%   11.3%   3.4%     6.9%     9.0%     2.9%     16.3%   7.4%    5.0%    10.8%
                                                                                                                               opportunities
  2.0%      3.5%     I8.4%     6.3%    5.5%    3.4%     5.2%     5.4%     -4.8%    4.4%    5.8%    3.2%    2.0%

 -2.6%      3.2%     1.8%      2.3%    3.5%    2.8%     3.8%     3.4%     -5.2%    0.3%    5.2%    0.2%    1.5%
                                                                                                                   Lowest    ● We look to hold assets
 -5.3%     -3.5%     -1.0%     1.2%    1.5%    -9.2%    3.1%     2.1%     -26.6%   -3.7%   0.3%    -1.8%   0.2%
                                                                                                                   return      that suit the economic
        Emerging market debt            Investment grade corporate bond
                                                                                                                               environment and that
                                                                                                                               offer value
        Treasuries                      Cash


        Global                          High yield corporate bonds




Source: Investec Asset Management, Bloomberg BBA 1 month LIBOR, Citigroup Treasury Index, Citigroup WGBI-ex US, JP
Morgan ELMI+ in USD to 2003, JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified in USD from 2003, Merrill Lynch Global HY Index hedged
into USD, Merrill Lynch Global Corporate Index hedged into USD
Page 17 | CONFIDENTIAL
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Overall expect lower and narrower returns, but opportunities
still exist


Expected 12 month returns

Cash                        5.0%

Bonds/ILB’s                 6.8%

Corporate                   8.8%

CPI                         5.8%

Property yield              7.4%




Page 18 | CONFIDENTIAL
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Investec Asset Management
South African Funds – core range

                            Fixed Income                             Multi-Asset                     Equity




                                                                                                               Value
                                                                                                      Equity
    Expected Return




                                                                                           Managed
                                                                             Opportunity
                                                                  Cautious Managed


                                             Diversified Income
                                      Opportunity Income
                             Absolute Income
                      Money Market


                                 Low                                 Moderate                        High

                                                                     Volatility


Page 19 | CONFIDENTIAL
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SA fixed income funds
Different strategies have different objectives


Fund strategy                      Investec Fund                 Sector

Money market alternatives          Investec Absolute Income      SA Multi-Asset Income




Domestic only – Fixed Income
                                   Investec Opportunity Income   SA Multi-Asset Income
Solution




Complete - Fixed Income solution
                                   Investec Diversified Income   SA Multi-Asset Income
(incl. international)




Page 20 | CONFIDENTIAL
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Globally integrated fixed income investment team
SION 01/12/11
   We are unique to the SA market
                                                                                                         Text size 15
                                                                                                         Main W 16
                     Fixed Income & Currency Capability Leaders                       ● Globally integrated team
                                                                                                         Second W 8
                  John Stopford – Co-Head of      André Roux – Co-Head of Global
                     Global Fixed Income                  Fixed Income                ● 37 investment professionals
                                                                                                      Photo 2.2
                                                                                                         Textbox 5.8
           Multi-strategy & Developed Markets                 Emerging Markets
                                                                                      ● Average of 13 years
                                                                                                         Text size 12
                                                  Peter Eerdmans – Emerging Markets
                   John Stopford – Allocation &             Debt & Currency             investment experience
                                                                                                      Spacing 0.1
                                                                                                      Text size 12
                         Developed Credit               12 Investment Specialists
                      4 Investment Specialists                                        ● Specialist teams with 8
                                                                                                        Main W 16
                                                                                                        Second W
                                                                                                                  clear
                                                          Malcolm Charles –
                                                        Southern African Rates          accountability and
                                                        4 Investment Specialists                        Photo 1.4
                 Russell Silberston – Developed                                         responsibility Textbox 6.6
                        Rates & Currency                   Simon Howie –                                 Text size 11
                     7 Investment Specialists        South Africa & Frontier Credit
                                                        4 Investment Specialists

                                            André Roux
                                         Economic Research

                                        Thanos Papasavvas
                                Fixed Income & Currency Strategist
                                5 Fixed Income & Currency Dealers




   Page 21 | CONFIDENTIAL
   12573
Investec Absolute Income Fund
Compelling alternative to money market

Annualised performance
                                        10%
                                                  Investec Absolute Income
                                          9%      SA money market sector average
                                          8%

                                          7%

                                          6%

                                          5%

                                          4%

                                          3%

                                          2%

                                          1%

                                          0%
                                                         1 year                   3 years p.a.               5 years p.a.              Since inception*


Investec Absolute Income                                  7.1%                        7.1%                       8.6%                        8.8%
SA money market sector average                            5.4%                        5.9%                       7.7%                        8.0%




Source: Morningstar as at 31 December 2012. Returns are calculated on a bid-to-bid basis, net of fees, with gross income reinvested.
Market indices are gross of fees. Periods less than one year are not annualised.
*Inception date: 1 July 2003
Page 22 | CONFIDENTIAL
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Investec Diversified Income Fund
Complete fixed income solution

● A diversified fixed income retail fund, established in 2008

● Globally integrated approach drawing on the best investment ideas from the SA and
  London teams

● Diversified strategic allocation to multiple sources of uncorrelated fixed income returns

● Actively manages the asset allocation between cash, government bonds, inflation linked
  bonds, corporate bonds and listed property in SA and abroad

● Offshore assets are actively managed with currency hedging




Page 23 | CONFIDENTIAL
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Investec Diversified Income Fund
Complete fixed income solution for SA investors

Portfolio allocation                                                Corporate bonds:
                        Inflation-
                                       Property,                    Overweight (40%)
                         Linked
                       Bonds, 2.0%       1.0%
                                                                    Foreign Exposure (incl. Credit linked
         Corporate                                                  notes):
        Bonds, 15.0%                                  Government
                                                     Bonds, 24.0%
                                                                    Actively managed

Floating Rate                                                       Money market:
Notes, 23.0%
                                                                    NCDs = higher income yields and liquid
                                                      Money
                                                      Market
                                                                    Government bonds and Property:
                                                     (NCDs),
                           Foreign                    22.0%         Underweight
                          Exposure,
                           13.0%


Duration: 1year and 3 months
Yield: 5.8%

Source: Investec Asset Management 22 February 2013
Page 24 | CONFIDENTIAL
12573
Investec Diversified Income Fund
Complete fixed income solution for SA investors

                              12%


                              10%


                                8%


                                6%


                                4%


                                2%


                                0%
                                                    3 months                                1 year                             3 years p.a.
        Investec Diversified Income                   1.8%                                  9.6%                                  9.8%
        ALBI 1-3                                      1.3%                                  5.5%                                  6.8%
        STeFI                                         1.3%                                  5.5%                                  6.0%


Source: Morningstar as at 31 January 2013. Returns are calculated on a bid-to-bid basis, net of fees, with gross income reinvested
Inception date: 29 August 2008
Page 25 | CONFIDENTIAL
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Summary

● Challenging macroeconomic conditions prevail
        − Low / negative real returns
        − Lower and narrower returns from SA income assets


● Opportunities exist
        − Active management
        − Corporate credit
        − Global diversification


● Investec Asset Management offers a globally integrated and experienced team
  managing a complete fixed income solution




Page 26 | CONFIDENTIAL
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Biographies
                         Sumesh Chetty                       Years updated
                                                             2013
                         Portfolio Manager
                         6 years with the firm
                         11 years of industry experience




Sumesh is a portfolio manager at Investec Asset
Management with responsibility for our absolute return
strategies. He is co-portfolio manager of the Investec
Cautious Managed Fund and the Investec Absolute
Balanced Fund.
He joined the firm in 2007 from Metropolitan Asset
Managers where he managed the Metropolitan
Absolute Return Fund from 2005. Before joining
Metropolitan, Sumesh spent three years as an
investment actuary at Metropolitan Employee Benefits,
where he was responsible for managing smooth bonus
funds. Sumesh began his career at Swiss Re Life &
Health, where he spent over three years as an actuarial
specialist.
Sumesh graduated from the University of Cape Town
with a Bachelor of Business Science (Honours) degree
in Actuarial Science and a Post Graduate Diploma in
Actuarial Science. He is also a Fellow of the Institute of
Actuaries in the United Kingdom.




Page 27 | CONFIDENTIAL
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It wasn’t the
end of the world…
So what now?
Sumesh Chetty, Portfolio Manager
Agenda

● Our investment philosophy

● Challenges facing investors

● Implications for portfolio construction




Page 29 | CONFIDENTIAL
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South Africa Absolute Return team

                                        Co-Chief Investment Officers - John McNab, Domenico Ferrini

                                            Experienced Portfolio Managers – 20 managers

  Equity                                Fixed Income                        Absolute Return
  Growth: Richard Middleton             André Roux, John Stopford           Clyde Rossouw
  Value: John Biccard, Rajay            Duration: Malcolm Charles           Sumesh Chetty
  Ambekar                               High Income: Vivienne Taberer
  Active Quants: Grant Irvine-Smith     Cash: Lisa McLeod
  General: Chris Freund                 Credit: Simon Howie, Marshall
  Sector: Angelique de Rauville, Neil   Brown, Steven Loubser                                      Clyde Rossouw          Sumesh Chetty
                                                                                                   14 years with the firm 6 years Investec
  Stuart-Findlay
                                                                                                   19 years experience 11 years experience
  RI: Malcolm Gray


                                               Common research platform – 21 analysts

                                         Implementation and pre-trade compliance – 3 members

                                                          Dealing – 5 dealers

                                        Performance measurement, attribution & risk – 6 analysts




As at November 2012
Page 30 | CONFIDENTIAL
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Investec Opportunity Fund
Long term consistent outperformance

Investec Opportunity Fund relative to new sector:
South Africa Multi Asset – High Equity




Source: Morningstar as at January 2013.
Page 31 | CONFIDENTIAL
12573
Investec Opportunity and Cautious Managed Funds
A proven investment process

Risk vs Return scatterplot: 10 years to 31 December 2012

               19%
                                                              Risk-cognisant Investec Opportunity
               17%                                                                                         SA equity general sector
                                                                                                                   average

               15%

                                                                        SA AA variable equity
 Return p.a.




               13%                                                         sector average


               11%                                             Quality-centric
                                                   SA Bond sector average
               9%

                          SA Money Market sector                                                    Foreign equity general
               7%                average                                                                sector average


               5%
                     0%          2%          4%     6%        Valuation-bias
                                                                  8%           10%          12%            14%           16%
                                                         Standard Deviation p.a.




 Source: Morningstar as at 31 December 2012. Returns are calculated on a bid-to-bid basis, net of fees, with gross income
 reinvested. Market indices are gross of fees.
Page 32 | CONFIDENTIAL
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Investec Opportunity and Cautious Managed Funds
Our investment philosophy




                         Outperforming inflation with the lowest possible risk




                         Risk is defined primarily as the risk of losing money




                   Downside volatility is more detrimental than overall volatility




Page 33 | CONFIDENTIAL
12573
The rules of absolute investing

Rule number 1: Never lose money

Rule number 2: Never forget rule # 1


             Why?
                  R 100                           R 100

                           -30%            +43%

                                  R 70




                   Start          Year 1          Year 2


Page 34 | CONFIDENTIAL
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High quality opportunities with a valuation bias

● We prefer predictable cash flows over                               Brand /
                                                          Balance
  uncertainty                                 Cash Flow             Competitive Management
                                                           Sheet
                                                                    Advantage
● We only buy uncertainty if paid
  handsomely for it

● ‘Cheap’ is not ‘value’
                                                               Quality
● We prize franchise value highly

● We do not change our minds often




        Emphasis on quality and consistency to ensure long-term sustainable growth

Page 35 | CONFIDENTIAL
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It wasn’t the end of the world… So what now?


                                       We are cautiously optimistic
                                       •   Global risks still remain
                                       •   Local risks have increased
                                       •   Market sentiment appears overly bullish




                         Select opportunities can still be found

Page 36 | CONFIDENTIAL
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%




12573
                                                                                                10
                                                                                                     12
                                                                                                              14
                                                                                                                   16
                                                                                                                        18
                                                                                                                             20




                                                                                        6
                                                                                            8
                                                                              Jan-94
                                                                              Jun-94
                                                                              Nov-94
                                                                              Apr-95
                                                                              Sep-95
                                                                              Feb-96




        Page 37 | CONFIDENTIAL
                                                                               Jul-96
                                                                              Dec-96
                                                                              May-97
                                                                              Oct-97
                                                                              Mar-98




                                 Source: I-Net Bridge, to 31 December 2012.
                                                                              Aug-98
                                                                              Jan-99
                                                                                                                                                                                 Limited potential returns




                                                                              Jun-99
                                                                              Nov-99
                                                                              Apr-00
                                                                              Sep-00
                                                                              Feb-01
                                                                               Jul-01
                                                                              Dec-01
                                                                                                                                                                                                             Bond yields at historic lows




                                                                              May-02
                                                                                                                                  Yield on the generic 10 year government bond




                                                                              Oct-02
                                                                              Mar-03
                                                                              Aug-03
                                                                              Jan-04
                                                                              Jun-04
                                                                              Nov-04
                                                                              Apr-05
                                                                              Sep-05
                                                                              Feb-06
                                                                               Jul-06
                                                                              Dec-06
                                                                              May-07
                                                                              Oct-07
                                                                              Mar-08
                                                                              Aug-08
                                                                              Jan-09
                                                                              Jun-09
                                                                              Nov-09
                                                                              Apr-10
                                                                              Sep-10
                                                                              Feb-11
                                                                               Jul-11
                                                                              Dec-11
                                                                              May-12
                                                                              Oct-12
Low short term rates resulting in negative real returns




Source: Investec Asset Management
Page 38 | CONFIDENTIAL
12573
Investec Cautious Managed Fund
Putting your cash to work – the search for real income

Inflation-linked bonds as an alternative to cash
120

118

116

114

112

110

108

106

104

102

100
                          Mar-12



                                   Apr-12



                                            May-12




                                                                 Jul-12
                 Feb-12




                                                                                             Oct-12
        Jan-12




                                                      Jun-12




                                                                           Aug-12



                                                                                    Sep-12




                                                                                                      Nov-12



                                                                                                               Dec-12
                                            Inflation-linked bonds        Cash




Source: I-Net Bridge; Investec Asset Management to 31 December 2012.
Page 39 | CONFIDENTIAL
12573
Building a better bond portfolio
Our best Inflation Linked Bond

British American Tobacco PLC

  •     Global tobacco manufacturer with dominant position in
        many international markets
  •     35% ROE and Operating Margins of 35%
  •     Global Drive Brands (Dunhill, Pall Mall, Kent, Lucky
        Strike) – the key drivers of growth
  •     On-going share buybacks
  •     Dividend Yield of 3.8%
  •     FCF yield of 4.8%                        Earnings per share growth of 12% p.a.
                                                 Dividends per share growth of 14% p.a.




Page 40 | CONFIDENTIAL
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                                                                  0.5
                                                                                         0.7
                                                                                                  0.9
                                                                                                        1.1
                                                                                                              1.3
                                                                                                                                                    1.7



                                                                                                                    1.5
                                                         Jan-03
                                                         Apr-03
                                                         Jul-03
                                                         Oct-03




                                 Source: I-Net Bridge.
                                                         Jan-04




        Page 41 | CONFIDENTIAL
                                                         Apr-04
                                                         Jul-04
                                                         Oct-04
                                                         Jan-05
                                                         Apr-05
                                                         Jul-05
                                                         Oct-05
                                                                                                                                                          Resources relative to Industrials




                                                         Jan-06
                                                         Apr-06
                                                         Jul-06
                                                         Oct-06
                                                         Jan-07
                                                         Apr-07
                                                         Jul-07
                                                                                                                          relative to industrials
                                                                                                                          Resources expensive




                                                         Oct-07
                                                         Jan-08
                                                         Apr-08
                                                         Jul-08
                                                         Oct-08
                                                         Jan-09
                                                         Apr-09
                                                         Jul-09
                                                         Oct-09
                                                         Jan-10
                                                         Apr-10
                                                         Jul-10
                                                         Oct-10
                                                         Jan-11
                                                         Apr-11
                                                         Jul-11
                                                         Oct-11
                                                                          Resources cheap




                                                         Jan-12
                                                                        relative to industrials




                                                         Apr-12
                                                         Jul-12
                                                                                                                                                                                              Stretched valuations in select parts of the SA equity market




                                                         Oct-12
                                                         Jan-13
Bottom-up stock selection

Historic PE and subsequent real total returns



                              Investec Opportunity Fund



                                                ALSI




Source: I-Net Bridge.
Page 42 | CONFIDENTIAL
12573
Investec Opportunity Fund
Quality companies, reasonable valuations

Top 10 holdings as % of fund
Company                                                     %
Assore                                                     5.7
British American Tobacco                                   3.9
Sasol                                                      3.5
MTN Group                                                  3.2
Newgold Issuer                                             3.2
Tiger Brands                                               3.0
Impala Platinum Holdings                                   2.6
Steinhoff International Holdings                           2.5
Santam                                                     2.0
Richemont                                                  1.7
Total                                                     31.3




Source: I-Net Bridge and Investec Asset Management as at 31 December 2012
Page 43 | CONFIDENTIAL
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Associated Ore
A great asset in our portfolio, held for 8 years

  2.5
                 Assore’s profits have grown
                 faster than Anglos by 20% p.a.
                 But you still only pay 10 times
    2
                 earnings!


  1.5                                           EPS T12M
                                                (ASR/AGL)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Anglo shares outstanding have grown 6X
                                                Last Px (ASR/AGL)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Before buying back shares in 2007
    1




  0.5




    0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        No change in Assore since 1950
        2000/06/01
                     2001/02/01
                                  2001/10/01
                                               2002/06/01
                                                            2003/02/01
                                                                         2003/10/01
                                                                                      2004/06/01
                                                                                                   2005/02/01
                                                                                                                2005/10/01
                                                                                                                             2006/06/01
                                                                                                                                          2007/02/01
                                                                                                                                                       2007/10/01
                                                                                                                                                                    2008/06/01
                                                                                                                                                                                 2009/02/01
                                                                                                                                                                                              2009/10/01
                                                                                                                                                                                                           2010/06/01
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2011/02/01
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2011/10/01
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2012/06/01




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               11                                            11




Source: I-Net Bridge
Page 44 | CONFIDENTIAL
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                                             "Cash costs+sustaining capex" (R/5PGE+Au oz)




                                                  2,000
                                                          4,000
                                                                  6,000
                                                                          8,000
                                                                                  10,000
                                                                                                      12,000
                                                                                                               14,000




                                             0
                                   Mimosa
                                    Two rivers
                                  Platinum Mile




        Page 45 | CONFIDENTIAL
                                    Zimplats
                                   Mototolo
                                  West tailings
                                  Modikwa
                                    Marula
                                                                                           R10,500/ounce




                                    Impala



                                 Boschkoppie

                                 Mogalakwena
                                                                                                                                                                          Platinum industry cost curves




                                  Amandelbult
                                                                                                                        Impala Platinum is our preferred platinum stock




                                     Kroondal
                                    Union



                                   Lonmin



                                   Northam


                                  Rustenburg

                                  Marikana
                                   CTRP
SA specific risks have been on the rise

•       Labour unrest
                                   9.5



•       Rating agency downgrades   9.0


•       Rand depreciation
                                   8.5

•       Political uncertainty
•       Risk of foreign outflows
                                   8.0



                                   7.5



                                   7.0




                                                                                               May-12
                                                                                                        May-12
                                                                                      Apr-12
                                                           Feb-12
                                                                    Mar-12
                                                                             Mar-12




                                                                                                                          Jul-12
                                                                                                                                   Jul-12




                                                                                                                                                              Oct-12
                                                                                                                                                                       Oct-12
                                                                                                                                            Aug-12
                                                                                                                                                     Sep-12




                                                                                                                                                                                Nov-12
                                                                                                                                                                                         Dec-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Dec-12
                                         Jan-12
                                                  Jan-12




                                                                                                                 Jun-12




                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jan-13
Source: I-Net Bridge.
Page 46 | CONFIDENTIAL
12573
Offshore Equity
High quality global franchises at attractive valuations

Top 10

Name                                                                   Weight   PE     FCF Yield   DY    EM % Sales
Nestlé (Nescafe, Maggi ,Nesquik)                                       5.6%     16.6      4.5      3.7      41%

Japan Tobacco (Camel, Winston, Mild Seven, B&H)                        5.1%     13.4     11.4      3.0      28%

Samsung Electronics (Samsung)                                          4.8%     8.2       4.8      0.6      75%

Imperial Tobacco Group (Davidoff, Gauloises, West)                     4.8%     11.1      5.8      4.9      40%

Microsoft Corp (Windows, Office, Xbox, Bing)                           4.5%     8.8      11.7      3.5      13%

Reckitt Benckiser Group (Nurofen, Finish, Vanish, Dettol, Strepsils)   4.4%     12.5      6.6      3.4      35%

Unilever (Axe, Knor, Blue Band, Lipton, Dove, Lux, Flora, Omo)         4.4%     17.2      5.4      3.4      55%

Anheuser-busch Inbev ( Budweiser, Beck's, Stella Artois )              4.3%     17.4      7.7      2.6      56%

International Business Machines (IBM)                                  4.1%     11.7      6.8      1.8      21%

Coach (Coach)                                                          4.0%     14.1      6.6      2.1      13%

Total/Average                                                          46.0%    13.1      7.1      2.9     37.7%




Source: Investec Asset Management to 31 December 2012.
Page 47 | CONFIDENTIAL
12573
Nestlé – the quintessential franchise stock

Nestle has outperformed the market through multiple                                EM is adding 1bn new emerging market consumers by
cycles due to compounding and steadily increasing                                  2020
exposure to EM
                           Share price: source of
                                                       1973 - 2012
                           return                                                                      7 000                                                  50
                                                                                                       6 000                                                  45
                           Business (profit) growth      8.1%                                                                                                 40
5,000                                                                                                  5 000
                           Valuation uplift              2.7%                                                                                                 35




                                                                                                                                                                   % of sales
                                                                                      Population (m)
                                                                                                       4 000                                                  30
                           CAGR %                        13.1%                                                                                                25
                                                                                                       3 000                                                  20
                                                                                                       2 000                                                  15
                                                                                                                                                              10
                                                                                                       1 000
Log scale




                                                                                                                                                              5
            500                                                                                           0                                                   0
                                                                                                               2000      2005       2010        2015   2020
                                                                                                                      % of Nestle Sales
                                                                                                                      EM Population (Million)
                                                                                                                      Develop Market Population(Million)

            50
                                                                 Apr-06
                                                                 Apr-07
                                                                 Apr-08
                                                                 Apr-09
                                                                 Apr-10
                                          Feb-97
                                          Feb-98
                                          Feb-99

                                                      Mar-01
                                                      Mar-02
                                                      Mar-03
                                                      Mar-04
                           Feb-96




                                          Feb-00




                                                      Mar-05




                                                                          May-11
                                                                          May-12
                  Jan-90

                           Jan-92
                           Jan-93
                           Jan-94
                  Jan-91




                           Jan-95




                     MSCI World          Nestle



 Source: DataStream, company data, Investec Asset Management, USD Total Return Index
 This is not a buy or sell recommendation for any particular stock
Page 48 | CONFIDENTIAL
12573
Investec Cautious Managed Fund
Income generation and real returns at lower volatility



                                 Commodities -
                                                                                  ●   High quality stocks to provide real
                        Offshore -  gold                            SA Equities       capital growth in volatile markets
                           cash     4.5%                                              with lower levels of risk
                          3.5%
                                                       Domestic -
                                                          cash
        Domestic -                                       29.4%                    ●   Preferred asset class
         equities
          18.7%
                                                                     Offshore     ●   High quality global franchises on
                                                                     Equities         attractive valuations



                                                                                  ●   Uncorrelated returns – provides
                                                                       Gold           protection in uncertain markets

           Offshore -
            equities
             18.9%                               Domestic -
                                                                     SA Fixed     ●   Bonds and ILBs provide a superior
                                                   bonds
                                                                                      return to cash which yields a
                                                   25.0%
                                                                      interest        negative real return




Source: Investec Asset Management as at 31 December 2012
Page 49 | CONFIDENTIAL
12573
Investec Opportunity Fund
Long term real wealth creation

Investec Opportunity Fund

                                                                           ●   High quality stocks to provide real
                Domestic -
              property, 0.7%
                                                             SA Equities       capital growth in volatile markets
       Offshore -                               Domestic -                     with lower levels of risk
      bonds, 2.6%                                equities,
   Offshore -                                     41.6%
  cash, 3.1%
                                                                           ●   Preferred asset class
 Commodities -                                                Offshore     ●   High quality global franchises on
  Gold, 3.2%
                                                              Equities         attractive valuations
 Domestic -
bonds, 14.9%

                                                                           ●   Uncorrelated returns – provides
                                                                Gold           protection in uncertain markets


          Domestic -
         cash , 15.8%
                                           Offshore -
                                                              SA Fixed     ●   Bonds and ILBs provide a superior
                                            equities,
                                             18.1%
                                                                               return to cash which yields a
                                                               interest        negative real return




Source: Investec Asset Management as at 31 December 2012
Page 50 | CONFIDENTIAL
12573
Superior long-term returns
A focus on risk, quality and valuation


                                                 19%

                                                                                                               Investec Opportunity
      Risk                                       17%                                                                                         SA equity general sector
                                                                                                                                                     average
    cognisant
                                                 15%

                                                                                                          SA AA variable equity
                                   Return p.a.




                                                 13%                                                         sector average


         Quality                                 11%
         centric
                                                                                     SA Bond sector average
                                                 9%

                                                            SA Money Market sector                                                    Foreign equity general
                                                 7%                average                                                                sector average
        Valuation
          bias                                   5%
                                                       0%          2%          4%     6%            8%           10%          12%            14%           16%
                                                                                           Standard Deviation p.a.




Source: Morningstar as at 31 December 2012.
Page 51 | CONFIDENTIAL
12573
Investec Asset Management
International Funds – Core Range

                      Global Fixed Income                       Global Multi-Asset                         Global Equity


                                                                                              Global Strategic Equity (USD)



                                                                                                           Worldwide Equity Feeder (ZAR)
    Expected Return




                                                                                                           Global Equity (USD)
                                                                                              Global Equity FoF (ZAR)
                                                                                              Global Franchise (USD)
                                                                           Global Strategic Managed Feeder (ZAR)
                                                                           Global Strategic Managed (USD)




                                   Global Opportunity Income FoF (ZAR)
                      Money Market (USD, EUR, GBP)




                             Low                                    Moderate                                   High

                                                                    Volatility


Page 52 | CONFIDENTIAL
12573
Investec GSF Global Franchise Fund

● Highly differentiated 'global franchise' philosophy
● Concentrated portfolio and not benchmark constrained
● Low historic correlation with traditional benchmarks
● Record of long-term outperformance:
        − participating meaningfully in up markets
        − with smaller draw-downs in down markets
        − lower than average absolute volatility

● Managed by a globally integrated investment team based in London and Cape
  Town


   We seek to invest in companies with business models which can provide some
                           certainty in uncertain markets

Page 53 | CONFIDENTIAL
12573
Investec GSF Global Franchise Fund
Performance track record

Annual performance in USD                                                                                       Cumulative performance in USD
        40%                               36.1%                                                                     40%
                                                  30.0%                                                                                                                                               28.8
        30%                                                                                                         30%
                                                                                    14.7% 16.1%
                                                                                                                    20%
        20%                                                  11.8%
               5.9%
                                                                     7.4%                                           10%
        10%                                               5.9%                                    5.3%                                                                                                0.3
                      3.9%                                                                               4.6%
                                                                                                                    0%
         0%
                                                                                                                   -10%
        -10%                                                                -5.9%
                                                                                                                   -20%
        -20%                                                                                                       -30%
        -30%                                                                                                       -40%
        -40%                 -32.6%                                                                                -50%
        -50%                     -40.7%                                                                            -60%
               2007 (Apr)      2008         2009           2010       2011            2012    2013 (YTD)              Apr 07   Jan 08       Oct 08   Jul 09   Mar 10   Dec 10   Sep 11   Jun 12   Feb 13

                 Investec GSF Global Franchise A Acc                                                                            Investec GSF Global Franchise A Acc
                 MSCI AC World NR (MSCI World NR pre 1/10/11)                                                                   MSCI AC World NR (MSCI World NR pre 1/10/11)



                                                                                                                                                                                         Since inception
                                                                       1 month                3 months             YTD             1 year             3 years p.a.      5 years p.a.          p.a.*
Investec GSF Global Franchise A Acc                                         1.2%                  5.2%             5.3%            13.6%                 11.6%              5.6%              5.0%
MSCI AC World NR (MSCI World NR pre 1/10/11)                                0.0%                  7.0%             4.6%            9.3%                   9.5%              1.4%              0.4%
Relative performance                                                        1.2%                  -1.8%            0.7%            4.4%                   2.1%              4.2%              4.6%
Quartile ranking                                                              1                     3               2                   1                     1                 1                 1

Past Performance figures are not audited and should not be taken as a guide to the future
Source: Lipper, dates to 28 February 2013, NAV based, (inclusive of all annual management fees but excluding any initial charges),
gross income reinvested, in USD
*Inception date: 10 April 2007
Page 54 | CONFIDENTIAL
12573
Thank you
www.investecassetmanagement.com
Disclaimer
This document or any of its content may not be in whole or in part, be copied, modified, distributed, retransmitted, redistributed, or released to any
third party. The user represents and warrants that it will not use or permit the use of the document or any of its content for any purpose other than
authorised internal use and warrants that it will not, without the prior written consent of Investec Asset Management, directly or indirectly redistribute,
or knowingly facilitate redistribution of, all or any portion of the document.
All information and opinions provided are of a general nature and are not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or
entity. We are not acting and do not purport to act in any way as an advisor or in a fiduciary capacity. No one should act upon such information or
opinion without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of a particular situation. We endeavour to provide accurate and timely
information but we make no representation or warranty, express or implied, with respect to the correctness, accuracy or completeness of the
information and opinions. We do not undertake to update, modify or amend the information on a frequent basis or to advise any person if such
information subsequently becomes inaccurate. Any representation or opinion is provided for information purposes only.
Investec Asset Management will not be held liable or responsible for any direct or consequential loss or damage suffered by any party as a result of
that party acting on or failing to act on the basis of the information provided by or omitted from this document. This document may not be amended,
reproduced, distributed or published without the prior written consent of Investec Asset Management.
In the event that specific collective investment schemes in securities (unit trusts) are mentioned please refer to the relevant fact sheet in order to
obtain all the necessary information in regard to that unit trust.
Collective Investment Schemes in Securities (CIS) are generally medium to long term investments. The value of participatory interests may go down
as well as up and past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. CIS are traded at ruling prices and can engage in borrowing and scrip
lending. A schedule of charges, fees and adviser fees is available on request from the manager. Additional adviser fees may be paid and if so, are
subject to the relevant FAIS disclosure requirements. Forward pricing is used. The scheme trustee is FirstRand Bank Ltd (011) 371 2111.
Certain Investec Asset Management funds are offered as long-term insurance policies issued by Investec Assurance Limited, a registered insurer in
terms of the Long-term Insurance Act.
Investec Asset Management is an authorised financial services provider.




Page 56 | CONFIDENTIAL
12573

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“It wasn’t the end of the world…so what now?” – Investec

  • 1. Investec Asset Management It wasn’t the end of the world… so now what?” The Senate Group – 14th March 2013
  • 2. Agenda ● Challenges facing low risk investors Morkel Kincaid ● “It wasn’t the end of the world… So now what?” Sumesh Chetty ● Questions and answers Page 2 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 3. Developed market interest rates tell the story Developed market short-term interest rates: UK (Clearing bank rate, 0.50%), US (Fed funds rate, 0.25%), EU (repo rate, 0.75%) 6 5 4 Interest rates (%) 3 2 1 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 UK Clearning Banks Base Rate US Fed Funds Rate Euro Zone Repo Rate Source: I-Net Bridge Page 3 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 4. A liquidity wave has driven risk assets over the short term 12-month asset class returns to end February 2013 135 SA Listed Property: 35.7% 130 125 120 FTSE/JSE All Share: 19.3% 115 SA All Bond Index: 14.3% 110 105 SA Cash 5.4% 100 95 Nov -12 Dec -12 Jul -12 Mar -12 May -12 Aug -12 Sep -12 Feb -12 Apr -12 Jun -12 Oct -12 Jan -13 Feb -13 FTSE/JSE All Share !BS(J203T,E,100) SA All Bond Index !BS(JAPI05[TP],E,100) SA Cash !BS(STFIND[CL],E,100) SA Listed Property !BS(J253T,E,100) 2010 2011 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 YTD ALSI 18.98% 2.6% 26.7% 7.26% 10.34% 3.23% -1.89% 1.27% ALBI 14.96% 8.8% 16.0% 5.00% 2.60% 0.07% 0.66% 0.73% SA Cash 6.93% 5.7% 5.5% 1.36% 1.30% 0.43% 0.39% 0.82% Listed Property 29.62% 8.9% 35.9% 10.98% 2.75% 0.99% 4.64% 5.68% Source: I-Net Bridge Page 4 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 5. It’s been a golden decade for SA asset classes Performance over 10 years (annualised) 20% 18.7% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10.4% 10% 8.2% 8% 6% 5.5% 4% 2% 0% Average General Equity Fund Average Bond Fund Average Money Market Fund Average Foreign Equity Fund Source: Morningstar, to 31 December 2012, based in Rands. Returns are calculated on a bid-to-bid basis, net of fees, with gross income reinvested; indices are all gross of fees Page 5 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 6. Driving SA bond yields to record lows 7.2 9.0 JPMorgan GBI-EM Index (LHS) 7 R208 Govt bond (RHS) 8.5 6.8 R208 Government bond (%) 6.6 8.0 JPM GBI-EM (%) 6.4 6.2 7.5 6 7.0 5.8 5.6 6.5 5.4 5.2 6.0 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Source: Bloomberg as at 18 February 2013 and I-Net-Bridge Page 6 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 7. Are income funds still relevant?
  • 8. SA interest rates Keeping cash rates negative in real terms SA real returns 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Investec Asset Management Page 8 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 9. Interest rates are expected to remain lower for longer Source: Investec Asset Management Page 9 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 10. The market has changed Opportunities still exist... they're just harder to find
  • 11. Opportunities exist to achieve meaningful real returns Active management Meaningful real returns Page 11 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 12. Active management over the years has been crucial 20% Inflation linked bonds 18% Bonds 16% Cash 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: I-Net Bridge Page 12 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 13. Active management Will be crucial in a low return environment SA fixed income team London fixed income team ● SA Duration ● Offshore Duration ● SA Credit ● Offshore Credit ● Listed Property ● Currencies exposure ● Rand Hedge ● EM exposure USD/ZAR exchange rate Source: I-Net Bridge and Investec Asset Management as at 31 December 2012. Page 13 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 14. Opportunities exist to achieve meaningful real returns Active management Meaningful Corporate credit real returns Page 14 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 15. Corporate bonds remain the bright spot Quality corporates offering higher yields than government bonds Returns in excess of government bonds1 ● Corporate SA has a very strong balance sheet ● Corporate bonds now offering 2-3% p.a above government bonds AAA We only invest in AA investment grade instruments A BBB 1Creditspreads per rating band calculated as average of spreads of each bond against its companion benchmark government bond Source: RMB as at 31 December 2012. Page 15 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 16. Opportunities exist to achieve meaningful real returns Active management Meaningful Corporate credit real returns A global universe – a larger opportunity set Page 16 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 17. Global fixed income offers a broad opportunity set Annual Returns in USD for different fixed income asset types – best to worst 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 13.5% I8.9% 22.0% 27.9% 23.0% 6.3% 15.2% 18.1% 13.9% 60.9% 15.7% 9.6% 18.9% Highest ● Returns vary return significantly across the 9.2% 6.7% 11.6% 18.5% 12.1% 3.7% 10.8% 11.5% 10.1% 22.0% 15.3% 5.2% 16.8% range of fixed income 6.6% 4.2% 11.4% 16.9% 11.3% 3.4% 6.9% 9.0% 2.9% 16.3% 7.4% 5.0% 10.8% opportunities 2.0% 3.5% I8.4% 6.3% 5.5% 3.4% 5.2% 5.4% -4.8% 4.4% 5.8% 3.2% 2.0% -2.6% 3.2% 1.8% 2.3% 3.5% 2.8% 3.8% 3.4% -5.2% 0.3% 5.2% 0.2% 1.5% Lowest ● We look to hold assets -5.3% -3.5% -1.0% 1.2% 1.5% -9.2% 3.1% 2.1% -26.6% -3.7% 0.3% -1.8% 0.2% return that suit the economic Emerging market debt Investment grade corporate bond environment and that offer value Treasuries Cash Global High yield corporate bonds Source: Investec Asset Management, Bloomberg BBA 1 month LIBOR, Citigroup Treasury Index, Citigroup WGBI-ex US, JP Morgan ELMI+ in USD to 2003, JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified in USD from 2003, Merrill Lynch Global HY Index hedged into USD, Merrill Lynch Global Corporate Index hedged into USD Page 17 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 18. Overall expect lower and narrower returns, but opportunities still exist Expected 12 month returns Cash 5.0% Bonds/ILB’s 6.8% Corporate 8.8% CPI 5.8% Property yield 7.4% Page 18 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 19. Investec Asset Management South African Funds – core range Fixed Income Multi-Asset Equity Value Equity Expected Return Managed Opportunity Cautious Managed Diversified Income Opportunity Income Absolute Income Money Market Low Moderate High Volatility Page 19 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 20. SA fixed income funds Different strategies have different objectives Fund strategy Investec Fund Sector Money market alternatives Investec Absolute Income SA Multi-Asset Income Domestic only – Fixed Income Investec Opportunity Income SA Multi-Asset Income Solution Complete - Fixed Income solution Investec Diversified Income SA Multi-Asset Income (incl. international) Page 20 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 21. Globally integrated fixed income investment team SION 01/12/11 We are unique to the SA market Text size 15 Main W 16 Fixed Income & Currency Capability Leaders ● Globally integrated team Second W 8 John Stopford – Co-Head of André Roux – Co-Head of Global Global Fixed Income Fixed Income ● 37 investment professionals Photo 2.2 Textbox 5.8 Multi-strategy & Developed Markets Emerging Markets ● Average of 13 years Text size 12 Peter Eerdmans – Emerging Markets John Stopford – Allocation & Debt & Currency investment experience Spacing 0.1 Text size 12 Developed Credit 12 Investment Specialists 4 Investment Specialists ● Specialist teams with 8 Main W 16 Second W clear Malcolm Charles – Southern African Rates accountability and 4 Investment Specialists Photo 1.4 Russell Silberston – Developed responsibility Textbox 6.6 Rates & Currency Simon Howie – Text size 11 7 Investment Specialists South Africa & Frontier Credit 4 Investment Specialists André Roux Economic Research Thanos Papasavvas Fixed Income & Currency Strategist 5 Fixed Income & Currency Dealers Page 21 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 22. Investec Absolute Income Fund Compelling alternative to money market Annualised performance 10% Investec Absolute Income 9% SA money market sector average 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1 year 3 years p.a. 5 years p.a. Since inception* Investec Absolute Income 7.1% 7.1% 8.6% 8.8% SA money market sector average 5.4% 5.9% 7.7% 8.0% Source: Morningstar as at 31 December 2012. Returns are calculated on a bid-to-bid basis, net of fees, with gross income reinvested. Market indices are gross of fees. Periods less than one year are not annualised. *Inception date: 1 July 2003 Page 22 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 23. Investec Diversified Income Fund Complete fixed income solution ● A diversified fixed income retail fund, established in 2008 ● Globally integrated approach drawing on the best investment ideas from the SA and London teams ● Diversified strategic allocation to multiple sources of uncorrelated fixed income returns ● Actively manages the asset allocation between cash, government bonds, inflation linked bonds, corporate bonds and listed property in SA and abroad ● Offshore assets are actively managed with currency hedging Page 23 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 24. Investec Diversified Income Fund Complete fixed income solution for SA investors Portfolio allocation Corporate bonds: Inflation- Property, Overweight (40%) Linked Bonds, 2.0% 1.0% Foreign Exposure (incl. Credit linked Corporate notes): Bonds, 15.0% Government Bonds, 24.0% Actively managed Floating Rate Money market: Notes, 23.0% NCDs = higher income yields and liquid Money Market Government bonds and Property: (NCDs), Foreign 22.0% Underweight Exposure, 13.0% Duration: 1year and 3 months Yield: 5.8% Source: Investec Asset Management 22 February 2013 Page 24 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 25. Investec Diversified Income Fund Complete fixed income solution for SA investors 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 3 months 1 year 3 years p.a. Investec Diversified Income 1.8% 9.6% 9.8% ALBI 1-3 1.3% 5.5% 6.8% STeFI 1.3% 5.5% 6.0% Source: Morningstar as at 31 January 2013. Returns are calculated on a bid-to-bid basis, net of fees, with gross income reinvested Inception date: 29 August 2008 Page 25 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 26. Summary ● Challenging macroeconomic conditions prevail − Low / negative real returns − Lower and narrower returns from SA income assets ● Opportunities exist − Active management − Corporate credit − Global diversification ● Investec Asset Management offers a globally integrated and experienced team managing a complete fixed income solution Page 26 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 27. Biographies Sumesh Chetty Years updated 2013 Portfolio Manager 6 years with the firm 11 years of industry experience Sumesh is a portfolio manager at Investec Asset Management with responsibility for our absolute return strategies. He is co-portfolio manager of the Investec Cautious Managed Fund and the Investec Absolute Balanced Fund. He joined the firm in 2007 from Metropolitan Asset Managers where he managed the Metropolitan Absolute Return Fund from 2005. Before joining Metropolitan, Sumesh spent three years as an investment actuary at Metropolitan Employee Benefits, where he was responsible for managing smooth bonus funds. Sumesh began his career at Swiss Re Life & Health, where he spent over three years as an actuarial specialist. Sumesh graduated from the University of Cape Town with a Bachelor of Business Science (Honours) degree in Actuarial Science and a Post Graduate Diploma in Actuarial Science. He is also a Fellow of the Institute of Actuaries in the United Kingdom. Page 27 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 28. It wasn’t the end of the world… So what now? Sumesh Chetty, Portfolio Manager
  • 29. Agenda ● Our investment philosophy ● Challenges facing investors ● Implications for portfolio construction Page 29 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 30. South Africa Absolute Return team Co-Chief Investment Officers - John McNab, Domenico Ferrini Experienced Portfolio Managers – 20 managers Equity Fixed Income Absolute Return Growth: Richard Middleton André Roux, John Stopford Clyde Rossouw Value: John Biccard, Rajay Duration: Malcolm Charles Sumesh Chetty Ambekar High Income: Vivienne Taberer Active Quants: Grant Irvine-Smith Cash: Lisa McLeod General: Chris Freund Credit: Simon Howie, Marshall Sector: Angelique de Rauville, Neil Brown, Steven Loubser Clyde Rossouw Sumesh Chetty 14 years with the firm 6 years Investec Stuart-Findlay 19 years experience 11 years experience RI: Malcolm Gray Common research platform – 21 analysts Implementation and pre-trade compliance – 3 members Dealing – 5 dealers Performance measurement, attribution & risk – 6 analysts As at November 2012 Page 30 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 31. Investec Opportunity Fund Long term consistent outperformance Investec Opportunity Fund relative to new sector: South Africa Multi Asset – High Equity Source: Morningstar as at January 2013. Page 31 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 32. Investec Opportunity and Cautious Managed Funds A proven investment process Risk vs Return scatterplot: 10 years to 31 December 2012 19% Risk-cognisant Investec Opportunity 17% SA equity general sector average 15% SA AA variable equity Return p.a. 13% sector average 11% Quality-centric SA Bond sector average 9% SA Money Market sector Foreign equity general 7% average sector average 5% 0% 2% 4% 6% Valuation-bias 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Standard Deviation p.a. Source: Morningstar as at 31 December 2012. Returns are calculated on a bid-to-bid basis, net of fees, with gross income reinvested. Market indices are gross of fees. Page 32 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 33. Investec Opportunity and Cautious Managed Funds Our investment philosophy Outperforming inflation with the lowest possible risk Risk is defined primarily as the risk of losing money Downside volatility is more detrimental than overall volatility Page 33 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 34. The rules of absolute investing Rule number 1: Never lose money Rule number 2: Never forget rule # 1 Why? R 100 R 100 -30% +43% R 70 Start Year 1 Year 2 Page 34 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 35. High quality opportunities with a valuation bias ● We prefer predictable cash flows over Brand / Balance uncertainty Cash Flow Competitive Management Sheet Advantage ● We only buy uncertainty if paid handsomely for it ● ‘Cheap’ is not ‘value’ Quality ● We prize franchise value highly ● We do not change our minds often Emphasis on quality and consistency to ensure long-term sustainable growth Page 35 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 36. It wasn’t the end of the world… So what now? We are cautiously optimistic • Global risks still remain • Local risks have increased • Market sentiment appears overly bullish Select opportunities can still be found Page 36 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 37. % 12573 10 12 14 16 18 20 6 8 Jan-94 Jun-94 Nov-94 Apr-95 Sep-95 Feb-96 Page 37 | CONFIDENTIAL Jul-96 Dec-96 May-97 Oct-97 Mar-98 Source: I-Net Bridge, to 31 December 2012. Aug-98 Jan-99 Limited potential returns Jun-99 Nov-99 Apr-00 Sep-00 Feb-01 Jul-01 Dec-01 Bond yields at historic lows May-02 Yield on the generic 10 year government bond Oct-02 Mar-03 Aug-03 Jan-04 Jun-04 Nov-04 Apr-05 Sep-05 Feb-06 Jul-06 Dec-06 May-07 Oct-07 Mar-08 Aug-08 Jan-09 Jun-09 Nov-09 Apr-10 Sep-10 Feb-11 Jul-11 Dec-11 May-12 Oct-12
  • 38. Low short term rates resulting in negative real returns Source: Investec Asset Management Page 38 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 39. Investec Cautious Managed Fund Putting your cash to work – the search for real income Inflation-linked bonds as an alternative to cash 120 118 116 114 112 110 108 106 104 102 100 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jul-12 Feb-12 Oct-12 Jan-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Inflation-linked bonds Cash Source: I-Net Bridge; Investec Asset Management to 31 December 2012. Page 39 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 40. Building a better bond portfolio Our best Inflation Linked Bond British American Tobacco PLC • Global tobacco manufacturer with dominant position in many international markets • 35% ROE and Operating Margins of 35% • Global Drive Brands (Dunhill, Pall Mall, Kent, Lucky Strike) – the key drivers of growth • On-going share buybacks • Dividend Yield of 3.8% • FCF yield of 4.8% Earnings per share growth of 12% p.a. Dividends per share growth of 14% p.a. Page 40 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 41. 12573 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.5 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Source: I-Net Bridge. Jan-04 Page 41 | CONFIDENTIAL Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Resources relative to Industrials Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 relative to industrials Resources expensive Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Resources cheap Jan-12 relative to industrials Apr-12 Jul-12 Stretched valuations in select parts of the SA equity market Oct-12 Jan-13
  • 42. Bottom-up stock selection Historic PE and subsequent real total returns Investec Opportunity Fund ALSI Source: I-Net Bridge. Page 42 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 43. Investec Opportunity Fund Quality companies, reasonable valuations Top 10 holdings as % of fund Company % Assore 5.7 British American Tobacco 3.9 Sasol 3.5 MTN Group 3.2 Newgold Issuer 3.2 Tiger Brands 3.0 Impala Platinum Holdings 2.6 Steinhoff International Holdings 2.5 Santam 2.0 Richemont 1.7 Total 31.3 Source: I-Net Bridge and Investec Asset Management as at 31 December 2012 Page 43 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 44. Associated Ore A great asset in our portfolio, held for 8 years 2.5 Assore’s profits have grown faster than Anglos by 20% p.a. But you still only pay 10 times 2 earnings! 1.5 EPS T12M (ASR/AGL) Anglo shares outstanding have grown 6X Last Px (ASR/AGL) Before buying back shares in 2007 1 0.5 0 No change in Assore since 1950 2000/06/01 2001/02/01 2001/10/01 2002/06/01 2003/02/01 2003/10/01 2004/06/01 2005/02/01 2005/10/01 2006/06/01 2007/02/01 2007/10/01 2008/06/01 2009/02/01 2009/10/01 2010/06/01 2011/02/01 2011/10/01 2012/06/01 11 11 Source: I-Net Bridge Page 44 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 45. 12573 "Cash costs+sustaining capex" (R/5PGE+Au oz) 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 0 Mimosa Two rivers Platinum Mile Page 45 | CONFIDENTIAL Zimplats Mototolo West tailings Modikwa Marula R10,500/ounce Impala Boschkoppie Mogalakwena Platinum industry cost curves Amandelbult Impala Platinum is our preferred platinum stock Kroondal Union Lonmin Northam Rustenburg Marikana CTRP
  • 46. SA specific risks have been on the rise • Labour unrest 9.5 • Rating agency downgrades 9.0 • Rand depreciation 8.5 • Political uncertainty • Risk of foreign outflows 8.0 7.5 7.0 May-12 May-12 Apr-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Mar-12 Jul-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Oct-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Dec-12 Jan-12 Jan-12 Jun-12 Jan-13 Source: I-Net Bridge. Page 46 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 47. Offshore Equity High quality global franchises at attractive valuations Top 10 Name Weight PE FCF Yield DY EM % Sales Nestlé (Nescafe, Maggi ,Nesquik) 5.6% 16.6 4.5 3.7 41% Japan Tobacco (Camel, Winston, Mild Seven, B&H) 5.1% 13.4 11.4 3.0 28% Samsung Electronics (Samsung) 4.8% 8.2 4.8 0.6 75% Imperial Tobacco Group (Davidoff, Gauloises, West) 4.8% 11.1 5.8 4.9 40% Microsoft Corp (Windows, Office, Xbox, Bing) 4.5% 8.8 11.7 3.5 13% Reckitt Benckiser Group (Nurofen, Finish, Vanish, Dettol, Strepsils) 4.4% 12.5 6.6 3.4 35% Unilever (Axe, Knor, Blue Band, Lipton, Dove, Lux, Flora, Omo) 4.4% 17.2 5.4 3.4 55% Anheuser-busch Inbev ( Budweiser, Beck's, Stella Artois ) 4.3% 17.4 7.7 2.6 56% International Business Machines (IBM) 4.1% 11.7 6.8 1.8 21% Coach (Coach) 4.0% 14.1 6.6 2.1 13% Total/Average 46.0% 13.1 7.1 2.9 37.7% Source: Investec Asset Management to 31 December 2012. Page 47 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 48. Nestlé – the quintessential franchise stock Nestle has outperformed the market through multiple EM is adding 1bn new emerging market consumers by cycles due to compounding and steadily increasing 2020 exposure to EM Share price: source of 1973 - 2012 return 7 000 50 6 000 45 Business (profit) growth 8.1% 40 5,000 5 000 Valuation uplift 2.7% 35 % of sales Population (m) 4 000 30 CAGR % 13.1% 25 3 000 20 2 000 15 10 1 000 Log scale 5 500 0 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 % of Nestle Sales EM Population (Million) Develop Market Population(Million) 50 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Feb-97 Feb-98 Feb-99 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Feb-96 Feb-00 Mar-05 May-11 May-12 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-91 Jan-95 MSCI World Nestle Source: DataStream, company data, Investec Asset Management, USD Total Return Index This is not a buy or sell recommendation for any particular stock Page 48 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 49. Investec Cautious Managed Fund Income generation and real returns at lower volatility Commodities - ● High quality stocks to provide real Offshore - gold SA Equities capital growth in volatile markets cash 4.5% with lower levels of risk 3.5% Domestic - cash Domestic - 29.4% ● Preferred asset class equities 18.7% Offshore ● High quality global franchises on Equities attractive valuations ● Uncorrelated returns – provides Gold protection in uncertain markets Offshore - equities 18.9% Domestic - SA Fixed ● Bonds and ILBs provide a superior bonds return to cash which yields a 25.0% interest negative real return Source: Investec Asset Management as at 31 December 2012 Page 49 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 50. Investec Opportunity Fund Long term real wealth creation Investec Opportunity Fund ● High quality stocks to provide real Domestic - property, 0.7% SA Equities capital growth in volatile markets Offshore - Domestic - with lower levels of risk bonds, 2.6% equities, Offshore - 41.6% cash, 3.1% ● Preferred asset class Commodities - Offshore ● High quality global franchises on Gold, 3.2% Equities attractive valuations Domestic - bonds, 14.9% ● Uncorrelated returns – provides Gold protection in uncertain markets Domestic - cash , 15.8% Offshore - SA Fixed ● Bonds and ILBs provide a superior equities, 18.1% return to cash which yields a interest negative real return Source: Investec Asset Management as at 31 December 2012 Page 50 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 51. Superior long-term returns A focus on risk, quality and valuation 19% Investec Opportunity Risk 17% SA equity general sector average cognisant 15% SA AA variable equity Return p.a. 13% sector average Quality 11% centric SA Bond sector average 9% SA Money Market sector Foreign equity general 7% average sector average Valuation bias 5% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Standard Deviation p.a. Source: Morningstar as at 31 December 2012. Page 51 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 52. Investec Asset Management International Funds – Core Range Global Fixed Income Global Multi-Asset Global Equity Global Strategic Equity (USD) Worldwide Equity Feeder (ZAR) Expected Return Global Equity (USD) Global Equity FoF (ZAR) Global Franchise (USD) Global Strategic Managed Feeder (ZAR) Global Strategic Managed (USD) Global Opportunity Income FoF (ZAR) Money Market (USD, EUR, GBP) Low Moderate High Volatility Page 52 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 53. Investec GSF Global Franchise Fund ● Highly differentiated 'global franchise' philosophy ● Concentrated portfolio and not benchmark constrained ● Low historic correlation with traditional benchmarks ● Record of long-term outperformance: − participating meaningfully in up markets − with smaller draw-downs in down markets − lower than average absolute volatility ● Managed by a globally integrated investment team based in London and Cape Town We seek to invest in companies with business models which can provide some certainty in uncertain markets Page 53 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 54. Investec GSF Global Franchise Fund Performance track record Annual performance in USD Cumulative performance in USD 40% 36.1% 40% 30.0% 28.8 30% 30% 14.7% 16.1% 20% 20% 11.8% 5.9% 7.4% 10% 10% 5.9% 5.3% 0.3 3.9% 4.6% 0% 0% -10% -10% -5.9% -20% -20% -30% -30% -40% -40% -32.6% -50% -50% -40.7% -60% 2007 (Apr) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (YTD) Apr 07 Jan 08 Oct 08 Jul 09 Mar 10 Dec 10 Sep 11 Jun 12 Feb 13 Investec GSF Global Franchise A Acc Investec GSF Global Franchise A Acc MSCI AC World NR (MSCI World NR pre 1/10/11) MSCI AC World NR (MSCI World NR pre 1/10/11) Since inception 1 month 3 months YTD 1 year 3 years p.a. 5 years p.a. p.a.* Investec GSF Global Franchise A Acc 1.2% 5.2% 5.3% 13.6% 11.6% 5.6% 5.0% MSCI AC World NR (MSCI World NR pre 1/10/11) 0.0% 7.0% 4.6% 9.3% 9.5% 1.4% 0.4% Relative performance 1.2% -1.8% 0.7% 4.4% 2.1% 4.2% 4.6% Quartile ranking 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 Past Performance figures are not audited and should not be taken as a guide to the future Source: Lipper, dates to 28 February 2013, NAV based, (inclusive of all annual management fees but excluding any initial charges), gross income reinvested, in USD *Inception date: 10 April 2007 Page 54 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573
  • 56. Disclaimer This document or any of its content may not be in whole or in part, be copied, modified, distributed, retransmitted, redistributed, or released to any third party. The user represents and warrants that it will not use or permit the use of the document or any of its content for any purpose other than authorised internal use and warrants that it will not, without the prior written consent of Investec Asset Management, directly or indirectly redistribute, or knowingly facilitate redistribution of, all or any portion of the document. All information and opinions provided are of a general nature and are not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. We are not acting and do not purport to act in any way as an advisor or in a fiduciary capacity. No one should act upon such information or opinion without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of a particular situation. We endeavour to provide accurate and timely information but we make no representation or warranty, express or implied, with respect to the correctness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions. We do not undertake to update, modify or amend the information on a frequent basis or to advise any person if such information subsequently becomes inaccurate. Any representation or opinion is provided for information purposes only. Investec Asset Management will not be held liable or responsible for any direct or consequential loss or damage suffered by any party as a result of that party acting on or failing to act on the basis of the information provided by or omitted from this document. This document may not be amended, reproduced, distributed or published without the prior written consent of Investec Asset Management. In the event that specific collective investment schemes in securities (unit trusts) are mentioned please refer to the relevant fact sheet in order to obtain all the necessary information in regard to that unit trust. Collective Investment Schemes in Securities (CIS) are generally medium to long term investments. The value of participatory interests may go down as well as up and past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. CIS are traded at ruling prices and can engage in borrowing and scrip lending. A schedule of charges, fees and adviser fees is available on request from the manager. Additional adviser fees may be paid and if so, are subject to the relevant FAIS disclosure requirements. Forward pricing is used. The scheme trustee is FirstRand Bank Ltd (011) 371 2111. Certain Investec Asset Management funds are offered as long-term insurance policies issued by Investec Assurance Limited, a registered insurer in terms of the Long-term Insurance Act. Investec Asset Management is an authorised financial services provider. Page 56 | CONFIDENTIAL 12573