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A Brief History of 

Data-Drivenness
@fabianstelzer
Data-Driven Decisions
800 BC - Pythia
Divination-Driven
Decisions
Divination < Interpretation > Decision
Divination < Interpretation > Decision
manual-opaque
manual
800 BC
I Ching
Divination < Interpretation > Decision
systematic manual
Divination < Interpretation > Decision
Bogus manual
Information < Interpretation > Decision
800 AD - Al Kindi
1670s - Leibniz
Instrumentum Arithmeticum
0
1
"A Brief History of Data-Drivenness", Fabian Stelzer
Should I really do this?
PROS CONS
“Moral Algebra”
1770s - Ben Franklin
Qualitative —> Quantitative
Information < Interpretation > Decision
systematic-quantitativeempirical-manual
Information < Interpretation > Decision
Probability Theory

Heuristics
Decision Frameworks
NPV
…
"A Brief History of Data-Drivenness", Fabian Stelzer
*Builds rational
machines.*
*Shows humans
aren’t rational*
1950s - Herbert Simon
“Increase decision quality with data”
1970s - IBM
1. inconclusive impact on decision quality
2. interesting impact on shrinking decisional effort
DSSs - did they work?
;-)
“Productivity
Paradox”, 1987
“You can see the computer age everywhere
but in the productivity statistics.” - Robert Solow
DSS vs Big Data
Big Data + Machine Learning = 

Decisive AI?
AI-automation of most/many
decisions to minimize ‘human
factor’?
Will Larry Page fire himself when an AI
would be the better CEO?
59
75
Visual Excitingness
Visual Clarity
3s
Qualitatative —> Quantitative
eyequant.com
@fabianstelzer
@eyequant
THX!

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