Analyze Flight Delay Data with Spark ML

David Taieb
STSM - IBM Cloud Data Services
Developer advocate
david_taieb@us.ibm.com
HANDS-ON SESSION:
DEVELOPING ANALYTIC APPLICATIONS
USING APACHE SPARK™ AND PYTHON

Part 1: Flight Delay Predict with Spark ML
PyCon 2016, Portland

©2016 IBM Corpora6on

Agenda
•  Pre-requisite steps to be completed before
the session
•  Flight Predict app descrip6on and architecture
•  Train the models in the Notebook
•  Accuracy Analysis and models reﬁnement
•  Deploy and run the models


Sign up for Bluemix
•  Access IBM Bluemix website on hMps://console.ng.bluemix.net
•  Click on Get Started for Free
•  Complete the form and click Create account
•  Look for confirma6on email and click on confirm you account link
Sign up for flightstats


Sign up for a free trial at Flightstats.com
•  Sign up at hMps://developer.flightstats.com/signup
•  Fill out the form and monitor email for confirma6on link (access to APIs may
take up to 24 hours)
•  Once access is granted go to
hMps://developer.flightstats.com/admin/applica6ons to view appId and
appKey (you will need them in the simple-data-pipe tool to create training
sets.
•  Op6onal: get familiar with the various flightstats apis:
–  hMps://developer.flightstats.com/api-docs/scheduledFlights/v1
–  hMps://developer.flightstats.com/api-docs/airports/v1

How to find your app id and key


Where to find the FlightStats app id and app key
APP ID
APP Key
Prepare your bluemix space


Create a new space on Bluemix
In prepara6on for running the project, we create a new space on Bluemix
Create a Spark Instance
Op6onal: You can skip this step if you already have a
space with Spark instance that you would like to reuse


Create a Spark Instance


Create New Spark Instance


Flight App Project Description
•  Use case
–  Flight delays are a common disturbance during business trips
–  Being able to predict how likely a flight will be delayed can remove uncertainty and enable
users to plan around it.
–  Idea: Weather data can be a good explanatory variable for building predic6ve models
•  ImplementaSon
–  Combine flight sta6s6cs from flightstats.com (System of records) with weather data from
IBM Insight for Weather (System of opera6ons) to build a training, test and blind set
–  Use Spark MLLib to train predic6ve models and cross validate them
–  Create a custom card for Google Now that will automa6cally no6fy user of impending
flight delay
–  Propose alterna6ng flight routes (e.g. Freebird)
Get/Build/Analyze


Get/Build/Analyze methodology


Flight Predict App Architecture
Weather
Simple Data
Pipes
Airports
Flight Schedules
Flight Status
Metadata
Training
Set
Test
Set
Blind
Set
Custom Connector
run every 24 hours
Notebook


Flow Diagram
Data
Acquisi6on
Data
Prepara6on
Data Annota6on
(Ground Truth)
Model
Training
•  Cleansing
•  Shaping
•  Enrichment
Model Tes6ng
Training
Set
Test
Set
Blind
Set
Iterative
Cross-Validation
Evaluate Performance and optimize model
Train Model
•  Itera6ve in Nature: we are never done!
•  We will be using this diagram as a roadmap throughout this course
Deploy and
Run Model


Get the data and build the training/test/blind sets
In this step we’ll use Simple Data Pipes open source project to acquire data from
Flightstats, combine it with Weather data from IBM Insight for Weather and save
the data sets into a NoSQL Cloudant Database.
Data
Acquisi6on
Data
Prepara6on
Data Annota6on
(Ground Truth)
Model
Training
•  Cleansing
•  Shaping
•  Enrichment
Model Tes6ng
Training
Set
Test
Set
Blind
Set
Iterative
Cross-Validation
Train Model
Deploy and
Run Model


Acquiring the data
•  In the next sec6on, we show how to acquire the training data by
using the simple-data-pipe tool and flight predict connector.
•  The flight predict connector combine historical flight data from
flightstats.com with weather data from IBM Insight for Weather
•  If you want to skip these steps, you can use the already built
dataset by using the following creden6als:
–  cloudantHost: dtaieb.cloudant.com
–  cloudantUserName: weenesserliffircedinvers
–  cloudantPassword: 72a5c4f939a9e2578698029d2bb041d775d088b5
Deploy simple-data-pipe


Deploy simple-data-pipe with flightstats connector
•  Go to hMps://github.com/ibm-cds-labs/simple-data-pipe
•  Click on Deploy to Bluemix buMon
Click buMon will take you to Bluemix


Complete simple-data-pipe deployment
Add Weather service


Add an instance of IBM Weather Service on Bluemix
•  Return to the applica6on dashboard
•  Weather service is required by the
ﬂight predict connector and must be
installed before
•  From app dashboard, click on Add a
service or API


Create an instance of IBM Weather Service on Bluemix
Search for Weather
Make sure to select
“premium plan” to have
enough authorized API calls


Checkpoint: simple data pipe app dashboard
•  Verify that your app is correctly bound to the right services
Weather Service used to enrich
ﬂight records with weather
observa6ons
Cloudant Service used
to store training, test
and blind data sets
You’ll need to click on this buMon
for the step on the next page It is recommended to increase
the app memory to 1GB


Install flight predict connector
•  Click Edit Code buMon, edit package.json to add flight predict module:
– "simple-data-pipe-connector-flightstats":"git://github.com/ibm-cds-labs/simple-data-pipe-connector-flightstats.git"
add flight predict module to dependencies
Save your changes
don’t forget to add comma in the line before to keep json valid


Install flight predict connector
•  Click File/Save to save your changes
Redeploy simple data pipe


Redeploy simple data pipe app
•  Use live edit Editor to redeploy the app
Verify your sdp install


Verify connector install
•  In this step, we verify that the ﬂight predict connector is correctly installed through the UI
Fight connector correctly installed
Create new ﬂightstats pipe


Create a new FlightStats pipe
•  Follow each screen to create and conﬁgure a new pipe
Run the pipe


Run the pipe
•  Skip over the schedule tab
•  In the ac6vity tab, click on Run Now to start the pipe
Explore the data set
Click Run Now
Then open the log to monitor the ac6vity


Explore the data sets
•  In this step, we take a moment to explore the diﬀerent data sets that have been created by the
simple data pipe tool
•  From bluemix dashboard, click on the cloudant service 6le, then on the Launch buMon
•  From the Cloudant dashboard, open the training database
•  Open a document to look at the data structure
Build the test set


Run the pipe again to build the test set
Train the models


Train the Models
•  In the previous sec6on we have created the training data and we are now ready to train the models.
•  Steps in this sec6on:
–  Create an IPython Notebook
–  Load the data sets from the Cloudant database into a Spark Cluster
–  Explore the data and train the machine learning models
Data
Acquisi6on
Data
Prepara6on
Data Annota6on
(Ground Truth)
Model
Training
•  Cleansing
•  Shaping
•  Enrichment
Model Tes6ng
Training
Set
Test
Set
Blind
Set
Iterative
Cross-Validation
Train Model
Deploy and
Run Model
Create IPython Notebook


Create a new IPython Notebook


Notebook tour


Notebook tour: Notebook Info


Notebook tour: Environment


Notebook tour: Sharing
`


Before we start building the app…
•  You can op6onally follow this tutorial from
Github by using a fully built notebook:
– hMps://github.com/ibm-cds-labs/simple-data-
pipe-connector-ﬂightstats/blob/master/
notebook/Flight%20Predict%20PyCon
%202016.ipynb


Optional: use prebuilt notebook
Import required Python packages
• Create notebook from URL
• Use hMps://github.com/ibm-cds-labs/simple-data-pipe-connector-ﬂightstats/
raw/master/notebook/Flight%20Predict%20PyCon%202016.ipynb


Using Python Packages
•  Write code inline within cells
•  Encapsulate helper APIs within Python package
•  2 ways of using helper Python packages
–  egg distribu6on package: pip install from PyPi server or file server
(e.g. Github)
•  Persistent install across sessions
•  Recommended in Produc6on
–  SparkContext.addPyFile
•  Easy addi6on of a python module file
•  Support mul6ple module files via zip format
•  Recommended during development where frequent code changes occur
Manage egg packages


Flight Predict Python Package on Github
Setup script for installing Python Package
Flight Predict Python library


Method 1: Install Flight Predict Package
•  Use pip to Install Flight Predict package
•  Recommended alterna6ve: build egg distribu6on package and deploy in PyPi


Manage Python packages
•  Check status
•  Uninstall package
Install packages via sc.addPyFile method


Method 2: Install py modules via sc.addPyFile
•  addPyFile install individual py modules and make them available to all executor
processes
•  Works with modules in zipped ﬁles
Module containing apis for training the models
Module containing apis for running the models
Conﬁgure creden6als for various services


Setup credentials and Import required python modules
In this step, we import python modules that will be needed throughout the notebook
and setup creden6als to various services.
How to get creden6als for Cloudant and Weather
Creden6al for Cloudant NoSQL Service
Creden6als for Weather Service


Get Credentials for Cloudant
From the app dashboard, click on Environment Variables from the les sidebar


Get Credentials for Weather
Load training set from Cloudant


Load training set in Spark SQL DataFrame
…
In this step, we use the cloudant-spark connector (hMps://github.com/cloudant-labs/spark-cloudant)
to load data into Spark
Make sure to change
the db name to match
the one created for
your training set by
your ac6vity (open the
Cloudant dashboard to
ﬁnd the name)


Loading data: Behind the scene
Use Spark SQL connector to load data into a DataFrame
connector id
Op6ons
Cache data for op6mized reuse
Create temp SQL Table
ScaMer Plot Visualiza6on


Scatter plot visualization


Visualization api
Create an RDD of LabeledPoint


Transform into an RDD of LabeledPoint
Use Spark SQL connector to load data into a DataFrame


loadLabeledDataRDD api
Train Machine Learning Models


Machine Learning Algorithms
ConSnuous Output Discrete Output
Supervised Learning
(require Ground-Truth)
•  Regression
- Linear
- Ridge
- Lasso
- Isotonic
•  Decision Tree
•  RandomForest
•  GradientBoostedTree
• Classiﬁca6on
- Logis6c Regression
- SVM
- NaiveBayes
• Decision Tree
• RandomForest
• GradientBoostedTree
• K-NN (available as add-on spark package)
Unsupervised Learning
(no Ground-Truth data required)
•  Clustering
- KMeans
- Gaussian Mixture
•  Dimensionality Reduc6on
- PCA
- SVD
•  FP-Growth
Train Logis6c Regression Model


Train Logistic Regression Model
Train Naïve Bayes Models


Train NaiveBayes Model
Train decision Tree Model


Train Decision Tree Model
Train Random Forest Model


Train Random Forest Model
Accuracy Analysis


Naïve Bayes vs Decision Tree
•  Probabilis6c: compute the probability
of a data instance to be in a speciﬁc
class
•  Assume that each feature (variable) is
independent from the others
•  Performance depends on the predic6ve
nature of the features (non predic6ve
features will aﬀect the accuracy)
•  Works well with low amount of training
data. Doesn’t need all the possibili6es
•  Doesn’t work with categorical features.
• Non-Probabilistic: partition the data into
subsets that best describe the variable
• The deeper the tree, the better the model
fits the data
• Watch out for overfiting: need to prune
the tree
• Can handle categorical or continuous
features
• No need for input to be scaled or
standardized: Set you features and go!
• Requires a lot of data covering all
possibilities


Accuracy Analysis of the Machine Learning Models
In this sec6on, we will perform accuracy analysis on the test data. We will start by
compu6ng the accuracy metrics for each model, including the confusion matrix. We
will then use histogram chart to understand the data distribu6on and reﬁne how to
classes are computed.
Data
Acquisi6on
Data
Prepara6on
Data Annota6on
(Ground Truth)
Model
Training
•  Cleansing
•  Shaping
•  Enrichment
Model Tes6ng
Training
Set
Test
Set
Blind
Set
Iterative
Cross-Validation
Train Model
Deploy and
Run Model


Load Test data
Make sure to change
the db name to match
the one created for
your test set by your
ac6vity (open the
Cloudant dashboard to
ﬁnd the name)


Accuracy Metrics


Confusion Matrix


Accuracy metrics API
Output HTML
Display results HTML in Notebook Cell
Compute Metrics from labeled and predic6on data
Get the confusion matrix and build html table


Understand the distribution of your data with Histograms


Training Handler class
•  Provide ﬂexibility and extensibility to the
applica6on
•  Provide a fail fast and try something else
mechanism
•  Enable user to easily customize classes of data
based on how data is distributed
•  Enable user to easily add training features


Default Training Handler class
Return descrip6on for each classes
Return total number of classes: Default is 5
Re-classify a record: default uses
s.classiﬁca6on ﬁeld in Json record
Extra features Names to be added. None by default
Extra features to be added. Array must match the
one returned by customTrainingFeaturesNames


Customize Training Handler
Provide new classiﬁca6on and add day of departure as a new feature
Inherit from defaultTrainingHandler
Add day of the week using a technique
called dummy coding


Re-train the models


Re-compute accuracy
Models 1
Models 2
BeMer accuracy for NaiveBayes
and Logis6c Regression
Worse for DecisionTree and
RandomForest


Deploy and Run the models
In the last sec6on, we will simulate deployment and running of the models
through the notebook by calling APIs from the run package.
Data
Acquisi6on
Data
Prepara6on
Data Annota6on
(Ground Truth)
Model
Training
•  Cleansing
•  Shaping
•  Enrichment
Model Tes6ng
Training
Set
Test
Set
Blind
Set
Iterative
Cross-Validation
Train Model
Deploy and
Run Models


Run the predictive model


runModel API


Get Weather Predictions


Show prediction results


Resource
•  hMps://developer.ibm.com/clouddataservices/
•  hMps://github.com/ibm-cds-labs/simple-data-pipe
•  hMps://github.com/ibm-cds-labs/pipes-connector-ﬂightstats
•  hMp://spark.apache.org/docs/latest/mllib-guide.html
•  hMps://console.ng.bluemix.net/data/analy6cs/


Thank You

Analyze Flight Delay Data with Spark ML

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