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The Relationship of Cognitive, Personality, and Academic
Measures to Anesthesiology Resident Clinical Performance
David L. Reich, MD*, Suzan Uysal, PhD*, Carol A. Bodian, DrPH‡, Suzanne Gabriele, MA*,
Mary Hibbard, PhD†, Wayne Gordon, PhD†, Martin Sliwinki, PhD†, and Richard D. Kayne, MD*
Departments of *Anesthesiology, †Rehabilitation Medicine, and ‡Biomathematical Sciences, The Mount Sinai School of
Medicine, New York, New York




       Cognitive skills (including vigilance), personality fac-        these were subjected to a multivariate test (Mantel-
       tors, and standardized academic test performance may            Haenszel). Cognitive variables predicting poor clinical
       be associated with clinical competence in anesthesiol-          performance were difficulty performing a rapid mental
       ogy to varying degrees. Sixty-seven anesthesiology res-         arithmetic test requiring divided attention and com-
       idents in training at one center between 1993 and 1995          mission errors during complex visual target detection.
       were administered the modified Vigil (For Thought,              Personality variables predicting poor clinical perfor-
       Ltd., Nashua, NH), the Paced Auditory Serial Addition           mance were introversion and flexibility. A predictive
       Test, the California Personality Inventory, the State-          academic variable was poor anesthesia knowledge as
       Trait Anxiety Inventory, and five standardized aca-             measured by using two different tests during the first
       demic performance tests. The clinical performance of            month of training. There were varying levels of inde-
       anesthesiology residents was rated on a quarterly basis         pendence among these variables. Implications: Early
       by a clinical competence committee. A growth curve              academic test performance and certain cognitive and
       model indicated that there was significant variability in       personality tests were associated with the clinical per-
       clinical competence at the start of residency and a statis-     formance of anesthesiology residents. The predictive
       tically significant improvement over time, and that the         value of these findings should be confirmed in a pro-
       relative ranking of the residents remained stable over          spective, multicenter study.
       the course of training. Of 46 potential variables, 7 were
       associated (P Ͻ 0.10) with poor clinical performance;                                (Anesth Analg 1999;88:1092–1100)




S
       election and evaluation of resident candidates in               sustain focused attention (vigilance), divide attention,
       many disciplines of medicine has traditionally                  and process information rapidly may also be associated
       been based on academic criteria, such as United                 with clinical competence. Vigilance (as assessed by mea-
States Medical Licensing Examination scores and medi-                  suring the reaction times to simulated abnormal intra-
cal school grades. Although academic test scores can                   operative physiological data) is of significance in anes-
serve as predictors of academic achievement, they may                  thesia competency, particularly with regard to the
be less useful in predicting actual clinical performance               avoidance of critical incidents (6).
(1,2). Several studies have reported that specific person-               We hypothesized that cognitive, personality, and
ality attributes are associated with clinical performance              academic variables would be predictors of clinical per-
and have suggested that personality inventories may be                 formance during anesthesiology residency.
useful in selecting candidates for residency training pro-
grams (3–5). Another personality variable, trait-anxiety
(the tendency to respond to a wide range of situations as              Methods
dangerous or threatening), and the cognitive abilities to
                                                                       The study protocol was approved by the institutional
                                                                       review board of the Mount Sinai School of Medicine.
  This work was supported by an educational research grant from        All residents in the anesthesiology residency program
the Foundation for Anesthesiology Education and Research.
  Presented in part at the annual meeting of the American Society      at The Mount Sinai School of Medicine between 1993
of Anesthesiologists, San Francisco, CA, October 1994.                 and 1995 were asked to participate in the study; only
  Accepted for publication February 5, 1999.                           the data from residents who gave written, informed
  Address correspondence and reprint requests to David L. Reich, MD,   consent to participate were used. Of the 113 residents,
The Mount Sinai School of Medicine, One Gustave L. Levy Pl., Box
1010, New York, NY 10029. Address e-mail to david reich@smtplink       67 (59%) consented to participate in the study. Over
.mssm.edu.                                                             the 3 yr during which the study was conducted, 40

                                                                                       ©1999 by the International Anesthesia Research Society
1092    Anesth Analg 1999;88:1092–1100                                                                                          0003-2999/99
ANESTH ANALG                                                          ECONOMICS AND HEALTH SYSTEMS RESEARCH   REICH ET AL.   1093
1999;88:1092–1100                                                                      PREDICTIVE EVALUATION OF RESIDENTS




                                                                         two-letter sequences embedded in visual noise. Stim-
                                                                         uli were presented for 85 ms, separated by an 850-ms
                                                                         interstimulus interval. To better simulate the divided
                                                                         attention demands present in operating rooms (ORs),
                                                                         this task was modified according to the methodology
                                                                         of Solberg and Mateer (unpublished data) to include
                                                                         an auditory signal detection task consisting of an au-
                                                                         dio tape recording of ventilator disconnect alarms in-
                                                                         terspersed among normal OR background noise.
                                                                         Thus, both auditory and visual signal detection tasks
                                                                         were presented simultaneously. Errors of omission
                                                                         and commission were recorded for both visual and
                                                                         auditory attention tasks. Sustained and divided atten-
                                                                         tion were also measured using the Paced Auditory
                                                                         Serial Addition Test (PASAT) (8), in which subjects
Figure 1. The computerized daily evaluation system display of the        add pairs of random digits presented via an audio
criteria for evaluating an anesthesiology resident in the domain of      tape, such that each digit is added to the one imme-
essential character attributes.                                          diately preceding it. The test consists of four series of
                                                                         50 digits, and the rate of digit presentation increases
Table 1. Demographic Characteristics of Anesthesiology
                                                                         across series. In this study, the first three rates of
Resident Study Sample
                                                                         presentation were administered. In addition to the
            Gender                                                       ability to sustain and divide attention, the PASAT
              M                                    70.1                  requires rapid information processing.
              F                                    29.9                     Residents’ academic performance was recorded for
            Race
              Caucasian                            74.6                  the following five examinations:
              Non-Caucasian                        25.4
            Medical school
                                                                           1. Anesthesia Knowledge Test 1 Pretest (Metrics
              American                             85.1                       Associates, Inc., Chelmsford, MA) (first week of
              International                        14.9                       training)
                                                                           2. Anesthesia Knowledge Test 1 Posttest (Metrics
  Values are expressed as percentages.
                                                                              Associates) (first month of training)
                                                                           3. Anesthesia Knowledge Test 6 (Metrics Associ-
first-year residents entered. During the first year of the                    ates) (after 6 mo of training)
study, 13 second-year and 14 third-year residents also                     4. ABA-ASA In-Training Examination (Joint Coun-
entered the study. All test results were coded to pre-                        cil on In-Training Examinations, Park Ridge, IL)
serve participant confidentiality. Demographic char-                          (first month of training)
acteristics (age, race, gender, and United States versus                   5. ABA-ASA In-Training Examination (Joint Coun-
international medical graduate status) were recorded.                         cil on In-Training Examinations) (after 13 mo of
   Psychological tests were administered during the                           training)
first 6 mo of residency training using four published                       The members of the clinical competence committee
instruments with demonstrated validity and reliabil-                     and the residents were not blinded to the results of
ity. Both residents and clinical competence commit-                      these examinations.
tee members were blinded to the psychological test                          Clinical performance for anesthesiology residents
results.                                                                 was evaluated using the five criteria defined by the
   Personality was assessed using the California Per-                    American Board of Anesthesiology: essential character
sonality Inventory (CPI), which consists of 462 items                    attributes, acquired character skills, clinical skills,
comprising 23 personality scales. Trait-anxiety was                      judgment, and knowledge (9). All residents were rated
measured using a 20-item scale of the State-Trait Anx-                   on a scale of 1–5 of increasing competence (Fig. 1). At
iety Inventory (7).                                                      The Mount Sinai School of Medicine, the daily perfor-
   The Vigil (For Thought, Ltd., Nashua, NH), a con-                     mance of anesthesiology residents was rated by at-
tinuous performance test, was used to measure sus-                       tending anesthesiologists using a computerized eval-
tained focused attention. It is a visual signal detection                uation system. Using the same criteria, the clinical
task that requires subjects to observe a computer                        competence of anesthesiology residents rotating at af-
screen for an extended period of time (approximately                     filiate hospitals was assessed manually on a monthly
8 min) and to respond rapidly to simple, single-letter                   basis by attending physicians who had worked with
targets or to complex targets consisting of specific                     those residents. Both the computerized and manual
1094       ECONOMICS AND HEALTH SYSTEMS RESEARCH                REICH ET AL.                                                            ANESTH ANALG
           PREDICTIVE EVALUATION OF RESIDENTS                                                                                           1999;88:1092–1100




Table 2. Significance Levels for Associations Among Selected Predictor Variables
                         PASAT3               Vigil-Co             CPI-V1             CPI-V2              CPI-FX              AKT-1              ITE-1

   PASAT3                  1.00
   Vigil-Co                0.05                 1.00
   CPI-V1                  0.09                 0.82                1.00
   CPI-V2                  0.90                 0.26                0.30                1.00
   CPI-FX                  0.82                 0.20                0.71               Ͻ0.01               1.00
   AKT-1                   0.80                 0.91                0.19                0.17               0.68                 1.00
   ITE-1                   0.93                 0.57                0.59                0.44               0.61               Ͻ0.01               1.00

    PASAT3 ϭ third trial of the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test, Vigil-Co ϭ commission errors during complex visual target detection on the Vigil (For
Thought Ltd., Nashua, NH), CPI-V1 ϭ California Personality Inventory Introversion/Extroversion Scale, CPI-V2 ϭ California Personality Inventory Norm-
Favoring/Norm-Doubting Scale, CPI-Fx ϭ California Personality Inventory Flexibility Scale, AKT-1 ϭ Anesthesia Knowledge Test 1 (administered during the
first week of training), ITE-1 ϭ ABA-ASA In-Training Examination (administered during the first month of training).



Table 3. Independent Contribution of PASAT3 to Predict                         evaluation systems provided attending anesthesiolo-
Poor Clinical Outcome                                                          gists the opportunity to make written comments. All
                                                                               evaluations over 3-mo intervals were presented to the
                     Low commission         High commission
                          errors                 errors
                                                                               15–20 members of the clinical competence committee.
                      (Vigil-Co Յ5)          (Vigil-Co Ͼ5)         P ϭ 0.05    At quarterly meetings, the committee members used
PASAT3 Յ30                 42.9                   75.0
                                                                               these daily and monthly evaluations to arrive at con-
PASAT3 30–40               10.0                   60.0                         sensus evaluation scores for each resident in the five
PASAT3 Ͼ40                 14.3                    0.0                         domains of clinical competence.
                                                                                  Clinical competence data from the subset of subjects
                       Extroversion           Introversion
                      (CPI-V1 Յ50)           (CPI-V1 Ͼ50)          P ϭ 0.04
                                                                               entering the study as first-year residents were ana-
                                                                               lyzed using growth curve methods (10) to determine
PASAT3 Յ30                33.3                    80.0
                                                                               the pattern of changes in clinical competence scores
PASAT3 30–40              18.2                    50.0
PASAT3 Ͼ40                10.5                    25.0
                                                                               over the course of the residency. The demographic
                                                                               variables were evaluated for all subjects by using ei-
                     Norm-doubting           Norm-favoring                     ther ␹2 or Wilcoxon analyses to determine whether
                      (CPI-V2 Յ50)           (CPI-V2 Ͼ50)          P ϭ 0.01
                                                                               these variables predicted status at baseline or change
PASAT3 Յ30                66.7                    40.0                         over time.
PASAT3 30–40              40.0                    20.0                            Residents were classified as having poor clinical
PASAT3 Ͼ40                16.7                     9.1
                                                                               performance if they left the program for poor perfor-
                        Inflexible              Flexible                       mance or were in the lowest 25th percentile for Ͼ50%
                      (CPI-Fx Յ50)            (CPI-Fx Ͼ50)         P ϭ 0.01    of their evaluations. All other residents were classified
PASAT3 Յ30                25.0                    71.4                         as having good clinical performance. The cognitive,
PASAT3 30–40              20.0                    40.0                         personality, and academic tests produced 46 different
PASAT3 Ͼ40                 0                      21.4                         scores for each resident. Each of the scores was di-
                                                                               vided into quartiles, and the outcomes were examined
                      Poor academic          Good academic
                        knowledge              knowledge
                                                                               for suggestions of appropriate categories for the sta-
                       (AKT-1 Յ50)            (AKT-1 Ͼ50)          P ϭ 0.02    tistical analyses. On this basis, scores were grouped
PASAT3 Յ30                44.4                   100.0
                                                                               into two or three categories, and ␹2 tests of association
PASAT3 30–40              40.0                     0.0                         or of trend were used to identify which of these meas-
PASAT3 Ͼ40                17.6                     0.0                         ures showed evidence of association with poor clinical
                                                                               performance. A value of P Ͻ 0.10 was the criterion
                      Poor academic          Good academic
                       knowledge              knowledge
                                                                               used for this screening process.
                       (ITE-1 Յ15)            (ITE-1 Ͼ15)          P ϭ 0.01

PASAT3 Յ30                57.1                    50.0
PASAT3 30–40              25.0                    25.0                         Results
PASAT3 Ͼ40                23.1                     0.0
                                                                               The correlations among the five clinical competence
    Values are presented as the percentage of subjects meeting the given       domains (essential character attributes, acquired char-
criteria.
    PASAT3 ϭ third trial of the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test, Vigil-    acter skills, knowledge, judgment, and clinical skills)
Co ϭ commission errors during complex visual target detection on the Vigil     were statistically significant at every 3-mo assessment.
(For Thought Ltd., Nashua, NH), CPI-V1 ϭ California Personality Inventory
Introversion/Extroversion Scale, CPI-V2 ϭ California Personality Inventory     For example, at the 3-mo assessment, the range of
Norm-Favoring/Norm-Doubting Scale, CPI-Fx ϭ California Personality In-         correlation coefficients among all pairs of clinical com-
ventory Flexibility Scale, AKT-1 ϭ Anesthesia Knowledge Test 1 (adminis-
tered during the first week of training), ITE-1 ϭ ABA-ASA In-Training
                                                                               petence variables was 0.51– 0.94 (all P Ͻ 0.001). This
Examination (administered during the first month of training).                 indicates that very little additional information would
ANESTH ANALG                                                               ECONOMICS AND HEALTH SYSTEMS RESEARCH   REICH ET AL.                     1095
1999;88:1092–1100                                                                           PREDICTIVE EVALUATION OF RESIDENTS




Table 4. Independent Contribution of Vigil-Co to Predict Poor Clinical Outcome
                               Poor mental arithmetic              Moderate mental arithmetic              Good mental arithmetic
                                  (PASAT3 Յ30)                         (PASAT3 30–40)                         (PASAT3 Ͼ40)                    P ϭ 0.08

   Vigil-Co Յ5                          42.9                                  10.0                                  14.3
   Vigil-Co Ͼ5                          75.0                                  60.0                                   0.0


                                    Extroversion                          Introversion
                                   (CPI-V1 Յ50)                          (CPI-V1 Ͼ50)                                                         P ϭ 0.01

   Vigil-Co Յ5                          10.7                                  40.0
   Vigil-Co Ͼ5                          42.9                                 100.0


                                  Norm-doubting                          Norm-favoring
                                   (CPI-V2 Յ50)                          (CPI-V2 Ͼ50)                                                         P ϭ 0.00

   Vigil-Co Յ5                          31.6                                   5.3
   Vigil-Co Ͼ5                          66.7                                  57.1


                                     Inflexible                             Flexible
                                   (CPI-Fx Յ50)                           (CPI-Fx Ͼ50)                                                        P ϭ 0.03

   Vigil-Co Յ5                           5.0                                  33.3
   Vigil-Co Ͼ5                          66.7                                  57.1


                             Poor academic knowledge                Good academic knowledge
                                   (AKT-1 Յ50)                            (AKT-1 Ͼ50)                                                         P ϭ 0.02

   Vigil-Co Յ5                          25.9                                   0.0
   Vigil-Co Ͼ5                          50.0                                  66.7


                             Poor academic knowledge                Good academic knowledge
                                    (ITE-1 Յ15)                           (ITE-1 Ͼ15)                                                         P ϭ 0.02

   Vigil-Co Յ5                          29.4                                   9.5
   Vigil-Co Ͼ5                          50.0                                  60.0

    Values are expressed as percentages.
    PASAT3 ϭ third trial of the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test, Vigil-Co ϭ commission errors during complex visual target detection on the Vigil (For
Thought Ltd., Nashua, NH), CPI-V1 ϭ California Personality Inventory Introversion/Extroversion Scale, CPI-V2 ϭ California Personality Inventory Norm-
Favoring/Norm-Doubting Scale, CPI-Fx ϭ California Personality Inventory Flexibility Scale, AKT-1 ϭ Anesthesia Knowledge Test 1 (administered during the
first week of training), ITE-1 ϭ ABA-ASA In-Training Examination (administered during the first month of training).



be obtained by analyzing these domains separately.                                 Of the 67 participating residents, 3 (4%) left the
Therefore, the remainder of the results were derived                            program due to poor clinical performance, and 4 left
from analyses of the mean of the five domain scores.                            the program for other reasons. Of the 67 participating
   A growth curve model was fit to the clinical com-                            residents who completed the residency program, 18
petence rating scores to model status at baseline and                           (27%) were classified as having poor clinical perfor-
improvement over the course of residency. This anal-                            mance based on their clinical competence ratings,
ysis was limited to the subset of subjects who entered                          yielding a total of 21 residents (31%) who met the
the study as first-year residents. The results from the                         criteria for poor clinical performance.
model indicate that the mean rating at the start of                                The demographic characteristics of the study sam-
residency (intercept) was 3.4 and that there was a                              ple are presented in Table 1. The sample was pre-
slight but statistically significant improvement over                           dominantly male, Caucasian, and American medical
time (slope 0.017/month; P Ͻ 0.01). Analysis of the                             school graduates. The median age was 28 yr. Age,
random effects showed significant individual differ-                            gender, race, and graduate status did not predict poor
ences in the intercept (z ϭ 4.41, P Ͻ 0.01), which                              clinical performance (P Ͼ 0.40).
indicates that there was significant variability among                             Of the 46 cognitive, personality, and academic vari-
the first-year residents at the start of residency. The                         ables, 7 met our criterion (P Ͻ 0.10) for a univariate
residents’ scores improved at an equivalent rate over                           predictor variable. The predictive cognitive variables
the course of the residency, as indicated by a random                           were low score on the third and most challenging trial
effect for slopes that was not statistically significant                        of the PASAT (PASAT3) and high number of commis-
(z ϭ 0.91, P ϭ 0.36). Thus, the relative ranking of the                         sion errors during complex visual target detection on
residents as reflected in the clinical competence rat-                          the Vigil (Vigil-Co). The personality variables that
ings was stable over time. Clinical competence ratings                          predicted poor clinical outcome were high CPI
at baseline also did not predict rate of change (z Ͻ 1).                        Introversion/Extroversion Scale score (CPI-V1), low
1096     ECONOMICS AND HEALTH SYSTEMS RESEARCH                  REICH ET AL.                                                            ANESTH ANALG
         PREDICTIVE EVALUATION OF RESIDENTS                                                                                             1999;88:1092–1100




Table 5. Independent Contribution of CPI-V1 to Predict Poor Clinical Outcome
                               Poor mental arithmetic              Moderate mental arithmetic              Good mental arithmetic
                                  (PASAT3 Յ30)                         (PASAT3 30–40)                         (PASAT3 Ͼ40)                    P ϭ 0.04

   CPI-V1 Յ50                           33.3                                  18.2                                  10.5
   CPI-V1 Ͼ50                           80.0                                  50.0                                  25.0


                              Low commission errors                  High commission errors
                                  (Vigil-Co Յ5)                          (Vigil-Co Ͼ5)                                                        P ϭ 0.01

   CPI-V1 Յ50                           10.7                                  42.9
   CPI-V1 Ͼ50                           40.0                                 100.0


                                  Norm-doubting                          Norm-favoring
                                   (CPI-V2 Յ50)                          (CPI-V2 Ͼ50)                                                         P ϭ 0.01

   CPI-V1 Յ50                           18.7                                  21.4
   CPI-V1 Ͼ50                           80.0                                  30.0


                                     Inflexible                             Flexible
                                   (CPI-Fx Յ50)                           (CPI-Fx Ͼ50)                                                        P ϭ 0.00

   CPI-V1 Յ50                           13.6                                  27.3
   CPI-V1 Ͼ50                           27.3                                  88.9


                             Poor academic knowledge                Good academic knowledge
                                   (AKT-1 Յ50)                            (AKT-1 Ͼ50)                                                         P ϭ 0.01

   CPI-V1 Յ50                           23.1                                  15.4
   CPI-V1 Ͼ50                           73.3                                   0.0


                             Poor academic knowledge                Good academic knowledge
                                    (ITE-1 Յ15)                           (ITE-1 Ͼ15)                                                         P ϭ 0.01

   CPI-V1 Յ50                           30.0                                   9.1
   CPI-V1 Ͼ50                           63.6                                  44.4

    Values are expressed as percentages.
    PASAT3 ϭ third trial of the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test, Vigil-Co ϭ commission errors during complex visual target detection on the Vigil (For
Thought Ltd., Nashua, NH), CPI-V1 ϭ California Personality Inventory Introversion/Extroversion Scale, CPI-V2 ϭ California Personality Inventory Norm-
Favoring/Norm-Doubting Scale, CPI-Fx ϭ California Personality Inventory Flexibility Scale, AKT-1 ϭ Anesthesia Knowledge Test 1 (administered during the
first week of training), ITE-1 ϭ ABA-ASA In-Training Examination (administered during the first month of training).



CPI Norm-Favoring/Norm-Doubting Scale score                                     results demonstrate that the PASAT3 contributes ad-
(CPI-V2), and high CPI Flexibility Scale score (CPI-Fx).                        ditional information after controlling for the influence
Academic knowledge variables that predicted poor                                of each of the six other predictor variables. The pro-
performance were low scores on the Anesthesia                                   portion of residents who ultimately demonstrated
Knowledge Test 1 administered during the first week                             poor clinical performance decreased as the PASAT3
of training (AKT-1), and the ABA-ASA In-Training                                score increased. This trend was observed for residents
Examination administered during the first month of                              with low and with high Vigil-Co scores, although the
training (ITE-1).                                                               overall level of poor performance differed in the two
   Several of these variables were associated with each                         subgroups. Table 4 shows the comparable analysis of
other, and this association reached statistical signifi-                        the independent contribution of Vigil-Co. Five of six
cance in three instances (Table 2). Based on this and                           Mantel-Haenszel tests are statistically significant. This
the relatively small sample size, we believed that these                        analysis demonstrates that both low scores on PA-
data did not lend themselves to picking one “best”                              SAT3 and high rates of commission errors on the
combination of independent predictors, as in a multi-                           Vigil-Co (score Ͼ5) are independent predictors of
variate regression analysis. Instead, these data are pre-                       poor clinical performance.
sented in the form of contingency tables that allowed                              The independent contribution of high CPI-V1
tests of the independence of association among each of                          scores in predicting poor performance is shown
the seven univariate predictor variables. The Mantel-                           in Table 5. The statistically significant Mantel-
Haenszel test was used to test for statistical signifi-                         Haenszel tests demonstrate that CPI-V1 contributes
cance. These data are presented in Tables 3–9.                                  additional information after controlling for the in-
   The independent contribution of PASAT3 to pre-                               fluence of the six other predictor variables. In con-
dicting poor performance is demonstrated in Table 3,                            trast, the CPI-V2 was not a strong independent pre-
in which the statistically significant Mantel-Haenszel                          dictor in this sample; none of the Mantel-Haenszel
ANESTH ANALG                                                               ECONOMICS AND HEALTH SYSTEMS RESEARCH   REICH ET AL.                     1097
1999;88:1092–1100                                                                           PREDICTIVE EVALUATION OF RESIDENTS




Table 6. Independent Contribution of CPI-V2 to Predict Poor Clinical Outcome
                               Poor mental arithmetic              Moderate mental arithmetic              Good mental arithmetic
                                  (PASAT3 Յ30)                         (PASAT3 30–40)                         (PASAT3 Ͼ40)                    P ϭ 0.21

   CPI-V2 Յ50                           66.7                                  40.0                                  16.7
   CPI-V2 Ͼ50                           40.0                                  20.0                                   9.1


                              Low commission errors                  High commission errors
                                  (Vigil-Co Յ5)                          (Vigil-Co Ͼ5)                                                        P ϭ 0.06

   CPI-V2 Յ50                           31.6                                  66.7
   CPI-V2 Ͼ50                            5.3                                  57.1


                                    Extroversion                          Introversion
                                   (CPI-V1 Յ50)                          (CPI-V1 Ͼ50)                                                         P ϭ 0.20

   CPI-V2 Յ50                           18.8                                  80.0
   CPI-V2 Ͼ50                           21.4                                  30.0


                                     Inflexible                             Flexible
                                   (CPI-Fx Յ50)                           (CPI-Fx Ͼ50)                                                        P ϭ 0.49

   CPI-V2 Յ50                           28.6                                  47.4
   CPI-V2 Ͼ50                           15.4                                  41.7


                             Poor academic knowledge                Good academic knowledge
                                   (AKT-1 Յ50)                            (AKT-1 Ͼ50)                                                         P ϭ 0.33

   CPI-V2 Յ50                           52.4                                   0.0
   CPI-V2 Ͼ50                           30.0                                  18.2


                             Poor academic knowledge                Good academic knowledge
                                    (ITE-1 Յ15)                           (ITE-1 Ͼ15)                                                         P ϭ 0.12

   CPI-V2 Յ50                           54.6                                  28.6
   CPI-V2 Ͼ50                           35.0                                  11.8

    Values are expressed as percentages.
    PASAT3 ϭ third trial of the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test, Vigil-Co ϭ commission errors during complex visual target detection on the Vigil (For
Thought Ltd., Nashua, NH), CPI-V1 ϭ California Personality Inventory Introversion/Extroversion Scale, CPI-V2 ϭ California Personality Inventory Norm-
Favoring/Norm-Doubting Scale, CPI-Fx ϭ California Personality Inventory Flexibility Scale, AKT-1 ϭ Anesthesia Knowledge Test 1 (administered during the
first week of training), ITE-1 ϭ ABA-ASA In-Training Examination (administered during the first month of training).


tests reached statistical significance (Table 6). High                          (Vigil-Co) and poor performance on a test of rapid
CPI-Fx scores seem to convey moderate indepen-                                  mental arithmetic (PASAT3) were both independent
dent prediction of poor performance, which reached                              predictors of poor clinical performance. The excessive
or approached statistical significance in all six                               errors of commission indicate that the subjects dem-
Mantel-Haenszel tests (Table 7).                                                onstrated impulsive behavior in a test situation that
  The AKT-1 and ITE-1 test results are presented in                             required vigilance. Specifically, the impulsive subjects
Tables 8 and 9. These tests were independent of per-                            had trouble discriminating targets from background
sonality variables, but not of the cognitive tests, as                          noise. This test is analogous to the OR environment, in
reflected by the Mantel-Haenszel tests.                                         which an impulsive resident would be expected to
                                                                                have difficulty discriminating pertinent clinical abnor-
                                                                                malities from artifactual or distracting data. The rapid
Discussion                                                                      mental arithmetic ability could be described as the
Psychological factors are associated with clinical com-                         ability to “think on one’s feet.” Slow speed of mental
petence in residency training programs(3–5). In this                            processing and difficulty ignoring irrelevant informa-
study, we examined cognitive, personality, and aca-                             tion are undesirable characteristics in an anesthesiol-
demic knowledge test scores in anesthesiology resi-                             ogist that may be detected by this test.
dents and investigated their relationship to clinical                              In the personality domain, the independent predic-
competence over the course of training. Several meas-                           tors of poor performance were introversion and high
ures were independent predictors of poor clinical per-                          flexibility. Introverted individuals, as defined by the
formance, as defined by poor clinical competence rat-                           CPI-V1, are described as reticent, shy, reserved, and
ings or discontinuation from the residency program                              reluctant to initiate or take decisive social action (as
for poor clinical performance.                                                  opposed to outgoing, confident, talkative individuals
   In the cognitive domain, excessive errors of commis-                         with social poise and presence). Highly flexible indi-
sion on a test of sustained and divided attention                               viduals (as defined by the CPI-Fx) are described as
1098     ECONOMICS AND HEALTH SYSTEMS RESEARCH                  REICH ET AL.                                                            ANESTH ANALG
         PREDICTIVE EVALUATION OF RESIDENTS                                                                                             1999;88:1092–1100




Table 7. Independent Contribution of CPI-Fx to Predict Poor Clinical Outcome
                               Poor mental arithmetic              Moderate mental arithmetic             Good mental arithmetic
                                  (PASAT3 Յ30)                         (PASAT3 30–40)                        (PASAT3 Ͼ40)                     P ϭ 0.03

   CPI-Fx Յ50                           25.0                                  20.0                                  0.0
   CPI-Fx Ͼ50                           71.4                                  40.0                                 21.4


                              Low commission errors                  High commission errors
                                  (Vigil-Co Յ5)                          (Vigil-Co Ͼ5)                                                        P ϭ 0.08

   CPI-Fx Յ50                            5.0                                  66.7
   CPI-Fx Ͼ50                           33.3                                  57.1


                                    Extroversion                          Introversion
                                   (CPI-V1 Յ50)                          (CPI-V1 Ͼ50)                                                         P ϭ 0.01

   CPI-Fx Յ50                           13.6                                  27.3
   CPI-Fx Ͼ50                           27.3                                  88.9


                                  Norm-doubting                          Norm-favoring
                                   (CPI-V2 Յ50)                          (CPI-V2 Ͼ50)                                                         P ϭ 0.06

   CPI-Fx Յ50                           28.6                                  15.4
   CPI-Fx Ͼ50                           47.4                                  41.7


                             Poor academic knowledge               Good academic knowledge
                                   (AKT-1 Յ50)                           (AKT-1 Ͼ50)                                                          P ϭ 0.04

   CPI-Fx Յ50                           27.8                                   0.0
   CPI-Fx Ͼ50                           52.2                                  25.5


                             Poor academic knowledge               Good academic knowledge
                                    (ITE-1 Յ15)                          (ITE-1 Ͼ15)                                                          P ϭ 0.04

   CPI-Fx Յ50                           33.3                                   5.9
   CPI-Fx Ͼ50                           50.0                                  35.7

    Values are expressed as percentages.
    PASAT3 ϭ third trial of the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test, Vigil-Co ϭ commission errors during complex visual target detection on the Vigil (For
Thought Ltd., Nashua, NH), CPI-V1 ϭ California Personality Inventory Introversion/Extroversion Scale, CPI-V2 ϭ California Personality Inventory Norm-
Favoring/Norm-Doubting Scale, CPI-Fx ϭ California Personality Inventory Flexibility Scale, AKT-1 ϭ Anesthesia Knowledge Test 1 (administered during the
first week of training), ITE-1 ϭ ABA-ASA In-Training Examination (administered during the first month of training).


those who like change and variety, are easily bored by                          implies that the relative ranking of the residents by the
routine, and may be impatient and erratic (as opposed                           faculty tended not to change over the course of the
to stubborn, rigid, steady-paced individuals who like                           residency and that the faculty perceived that nearly all
an organized life). The potential disadvantages of cer-                         residents improved at nearly equal rates over time.
tain of these personality characteristics in an anesthe-                        We also observed a statistically significant correlation
siologist are self-evident. In contrast to our expecta-                         among the scores in the five domains of clinical com-
tions, anxiety was not a predictor of poor clinical                             petence. This implies that the faculty usually made
performance.                                                                    summary judgments of the residents’ performances
   In the academic domain, only the tests administered                          and did not differentiate, to any significant degree,
within the first month of initiation of anesthesiology                          among performances in the different domains. Never-
residency (AKT-1 and ITE-1) were mildly predictive of                           theless, the clinical competence committee did dis-
poor clinical performance. They were independent of                             criminate among the five evaluation domains for cer-
the personality variables, but not of the cognitive vari-                       tain residents. Another limitation of the evaluation
ables. The predictive value of the academic tests may                           process is that the evaluators were aware of previous
reflect the individual’s level of preparedness for anes-                        assessments of the residents’ performances.
thesiology training. Specifically, those who had stud-                             This is the first study to examine the relationship
ied anesthesiology-related facts in advance and who                             between the cognitive abilities (sustained and divided
were generally good test-takers performed better in                             attention, rapid information processing) and clinical
the residency. It may also reflect a difference in the                          performance of anesthesiology residents. Previous
motivation of the individuals to learn anesthesiology-                          studies have investigated the relationship between
specific facts.                                                                 personality attributes (CPI) and clinical performance
   The pattern of the clinical competence ratings was                           of anesthesiology residents (4,5) and have identified
notable in that residents’ scores began at different                            independence, empathy, socialization, well-being, and
levels but tended to improve equally over time. This                            achievement via conformance as attributes that have
ANESTH ANALG                                                               ECONOMICS AND HEALTH SYSTEMS RESEARCH   REICH ET AL.                     1099
1999;88:1092–1100                                                                           PREDICTIVE EVALUATION OF RESIDENTS




Table 8. Independent Contribution of AKT-1 to Predict Poor Clinical Outcome
                              Poor mental arithmetic               Moderate mental arithmetic             Good mental arithmetic
                                 (PASAT3 Յ30)                          (PASAT3 30–40)                        (PASAT3 Ͼ40)                     P ϭ 0.29

   AKT-1 Յ50                           44.4                                   40                                   17.6
   AKT-1 Ͼ50                          100                                       0                                   0


                              Low commission errors                  High commission errors
                                  (Vigil-Co Յ5)                          (Vigil-Co Ͼ5)                                                        P ϭ 0.21

   AKT-1 Յ50                           25.9                                   50
   AKT-1 Ͼ50                            0                                     66.7


                                   Extroversion                           Introversion
                                  (CPI-V1 Յ50)                           (CPI-V1 Ͼ50)                                                         P ϭ 0.08

   AKT-1 Յ50                           23.1                                   73.3
   AKT-1 Ͼ50                           15.4                                    0.0


                                 Norm-doubting                           Norm-favoring
                                  (CPI-V2 Յ50)                           (CPI-V2 Ͼ50)                                                         P ϭ 0.06

   AKT-1 Յ50                           52.4                                  30.0
   AKT-1 Ͼ50                            0.0                                  18.18


                                     Inflexible                             Flexible
                                   (CPI-Fx Յ50)                           (CPI-Fx Ͼ50)                                                        P ϭ 0.04

   AKT-1 Յ50                           27.8                                   52.2
   AKT-1 Ͼ50                            0.0                                   25.0


                             Poor academic knowledge               Good academic knowledge
                                    (ITE-1 Յ15)                          (ITE-1 Ͼ15)                                                          P ϭ 0.21

   AKT-1 Յ50                           40.7                                   35.7
   AKT-1 Ͼ50                          100.0                                    6.7

    Values are expressed as percentages.
    PASAT3 ϭ third trial of the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test, Vigil-Co ϭ commission errors during complex visual target detection on the Vigil (For
Thought Ltd., Nashua, NH), CPI-V1 ϭ California Personality Inventory Introversion/Extroversion Scale, CPI-V2 ϭ California Personality Inventory Norm-
Favoring/Norm-Doubting Scale, CPI-Fx ϭ California Personality Inventory Flexibility Scale, AKT-1 ϭ Anesthesia Knowledge Test 1 (administered during the
first week of training), ITE-1 ϭ ABA-ASA In-Training Examination (administered during the first month of training).


statistically significant positive correlations with resi-                         may not relate to clinical practice after residency. The
dency performance. Although those authors reported                                 study is further limited by the incomplete enrollment
a moderate predictive effect, none of the correlation                              of anesthesiology residents. The group that declined
coefficients were Ͼ0.30, which indicates that a mini-                              to participate in the study may have had demo-
mal amount of variance (r2 Յ 0.09) was attributable to                             graphic, cognitive, personality, or academic character-
each of these individual factors. In contrast, in the                              istics that differed from the study group—a selection
current study, we examined the independent associa-                                bias. The data from nonparticipating residents are not
tion of cognitive, personality, and academic measures                              available to make such comparisons. Furthermore,
with poor clinical performance.                                                    this was a single-center study. It is therefore unknown
   There are several limitations of our methodology.                               whether the results of this study would be similar at
Although based on a standard system and consistent                                 other institutions.
over time, the clinical competence ratings are subjec-                                This was a longitudinal study of predictors of anes-
tive. Because the performance of individual residents                              thesiology residency performance at one institution.
was ranked relative to the performance of the entire                               Many statistical tests were performed. Despite this and
group and was not based on an absolute standard of                                 other limitations, the data suggest that some cognitive,
minimal competency, the high rate of poor perfor-                                  personality, and academic measures are associated with
mance is a consequence of the operational definition                               clinical competence in a sample of anesthesiology resi-
used for this study. The clinical competence ratings                               dents. The ability of these measures to predict individual
cannot be validated against a more objective measure                               resident’s clinical performance should be confirmed in a
because none exists. The clinical competence ratings                               prospective, multicenter study.
are also limited in that they are a global evaluation of
clinical performance and do not allow discrimination                               We gratefully acknowledge the assistance of Dr. Michelle Marks
between OR and non-OR performance. Furthermore,                                    with the original design and implementation of this study.
clinical competence ratings made during residency
1100     ECONOMICS AND HEALTH SYSTEMS RESEARCH                  REICH ET AL.                                                            ANESTH ANALG
         PREDICTIVE EVALUATION OF RESIDENTS                                                                                             1999;88:1092–1100




Table 9. Independent Contribution of ITE-1 to Predict Poor Clinical Outcome
                              Poor mental arithmetic               Moderate mental arithmetic             Good mental arithmetic
                                 (PASAT3 Յ30)                          (PASAT3 30–40)                        (PASAT3 Ͼ40)                     P ϭ 0.29

   ITE-1 Յ15                           57.1                                   25.0                                 23.1
   ITE-1 Ͼ15                           50.0                                   25.0                                  0


                             Low commission errors                  High commission errors
                                 (Vigil-Co Յ5)                          (Vigil-Co Ͼ5)                                                         P ϭ 0.28

   ITE-1 Յ15                           29.4                                   50.0
   ITE-1 Ͼ15                            9.5                                   60.0


                                   Extroversion                           Introversion
                                  (CPI-V1 Յ50)                           (CPI-V1 Ͼ50)                                                         P ϭ 0.07

   ITE-1 Յ15                           30.0                                   63.6
   ITE-1 Ͼ15                            9.1                                   44.4


                                 Norm-doubting                          Norm-favoring
                                  (CPI-V2 Յ50)                          (CPI-V2 Ͼ50)                                                          P ϭ 0.04

   ITE-1 Յ15                           54.6                                   35.0
   ITE-1 Ͼ15                           28.6                                   11.8


                                    Inflexible                             Flexible
                                  (CPI-Fx Յ50)                           (CPI-Fx Ͼ50)                                                         P ϭ 0.07

   ITE-1 Յ15                           33.3                                   50.0
   ITE-1 Ͼ15                            5.9                                   35.7


                            Poor academic knowledge                Good academic knowledge
                                  (AKT-1 Յ50)                            (AKT-1 Ͼ50)                                                          P ϭ 0.38

   ITE-1 Յ15                           40.7                                  100.0
   ITE-1 Ͼ15                           35.7                                    6.7

    Values are expressed as percentages.
    PASAT3 ϭ third trial of the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test, Vigil-Co ϭ commission errors during complex visual target detection on the Vigil (For
Thought Ltd., Nashua, NH), CPI-V1 ϭ California Personality Inventory Introversion/Extroversion Scale, CPI-V2 ϭ California Personality Inventory Norm-
Favoring/Norm-Doubting Scale, CPI-Fx ϭ California Personality Inventory Flexibility Scale, AKT-1 ϭ Anesthesia Knowledge Test 1 (administered during the
first week of training), ITE-1 ϭ ABA-ASA In-Training Examination (administered during the first month of training).


                                                                                  6. Loeb RG. A measure of intraoperative attention to monitor
References                                                                           displays. Anesth Analg 1993;76:337– 41.
 1. Price PB, Taylor CW, Richards JM, Jacobsen TL. Measurement                    7. Spielberger CD. State-Trait Anxiety Inventory. Palo Alto, CA:
    of physician performance. J Med Educ 1964;39:203–11.                             Consulting Psychologists Press, 1970.
 2. Wingard JR, Williamson JW. Grades as predictors of physician’s                8. Gronwall D. Paced auditory serial addition task: a measure of
    career performance: an evaluative literature review. J Med Educ                  recovery from concussion. Percept Motor Skills 1977;44:367–73.
    1973;48:312–22.                                                               9. American Board of Anesthesiology. Defining competence in
 3. Keck JW, Arnold L, Willoughby L, Calkins V. Efficacy of                          anesthesiology. Hartford, CT: American Board of Anesthesiol-
    cognitive/noncognitive measures in predicting resident-                          ogy, 1993.
    physician performance. J Med Educ 1979;54:759 – 65.
                                                                                 10. Bryk AS, Raudenbush SW. Hierarchical linear models. New-
 4. McDonald JS, Lingam RP, Gupta B, et al. Psychologic testing as
                                                                                     bury Park, CA: Sage Publications, 1992.
    an aid to selection of residents in anesthesiology. Anesth Analg
    1994;78:542–7.
 5. Gough HG, Bradley P, McDonald JS. Performance of residents
    in anesthesiology as related to measures of personality and
    interests. Psychol Rep 1991;3:979 –94.

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  • 1. The Relationship of Cognitive, Personality, and Academic Measures to Anesthesiology Resident Clinical Performance David L. Reich, MD*, Suzan Uysal, PhD*, Carol A. Bodian, DrPH‡, Suzanne Gabriele, MA*, Mary Hibbard, PhD†, Wayne Gordon, PhD†, Martin Sliwinki, PhD†, and Richard D. Kayne, MD* Departments of *Anesthesiology, †Rehabilitation Medicine, and ‡Biomathematical Sciences, The Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York, New York Cognitive skills (including vigilance), personality fac- these were subjected to a multivariate test (Mantel- tors, and standardized academic test performance may Haenszel). Cognitive variables predicting poor clinical be associated with clinical competence in anesthesiol- performance were difficulty performing a rapid mental ogy to varying degrees. Sixty-seven anesthesiology res- arithmetic test requiring divided attention and com- idents in training at one center between 1993 and 1995 mission errors during complex visual target detection. were administered the modified Vigil (For Thought, Personality variables predicting poor clinical perfor- Ltd., Nashua, NH), the Paced Auditory Serial Addition mance were introversion and flexibility. A predictive Test, the California Personality Inventory, the State- academic variable was poor anesthesia knowledge as Trait Anxiety Inventory, and five standardized aca- measured by using two different tests during the first demic performance tests. The clinical performance of month of training. There were varying levels of inde- anesthesiology residents was rated on a quarterly basis pendence among these variables. Implications: Early by a clinical competence committee. A growth curve academic test performance and certain cognitive and model indicated that there was significant variability in personality tests were associated with the clinical per- clinical competence at the start of residency and a statis- formance of anesthesiology residents. The predictive tically significant improvement over time, and that the value of these findings should be confirmed in a pro- relative ranking of the residents remained stable over spective, multicenter study. the course of training. Of 46 potential variables, 7 were associated (P Ͻ 0.10) with poor clinical performance; (Anesth Analg 1999;88:1092–1100) S election and evaluation of resident candidates in sustain focused attention (vigilance), divide attention, many disciplines of medicine has traditionally and process information rapidly may also be associated been based on academic criteria, such as United with clinical competence. Vigilance (as assessed by mea- States Medical Licensing Examination scores and medi- suring the reaction times to simulated abnormal intra- cal school grades. Although academic test scores can operative physiological data) is of significance in anes- serve as predictors of academic achievement, they may thesia competency, particularly with regard to the be less useful in predicting actual clinical performance avoidance of critical incidents (6). (1,2). Several studies have reported that specific person- We hypothesized that cognitive, personality, and ality attributes are associated with clinical performance academic variables would be predictors of clinical per- and have suggested that personality inventories may be formance during anesthesiology residency. useful in selecting candidates for residency training pro- grams (3–5). Another personality variable, trait-anxiety (the tendency to respond to a wide range of situations as Methods dangerous or threatening), and the cognitive abilities to The study protocol was approved by the institutional review board of the Mount Sinai School of Medicine. This work was supported by an educational research grant from All residents in the anesthesiology residency program the Foundation for Anesthesiology Education and Research. Presented in part at the annual meeting of the American Society at The Mount Sinai School of Medicine between 1993 of Anesthesiologists, San Francisco, CA, October 1994. and 1995 were asked to participate in the study; only Accepted for publication February 5, 1999. the data from residents who gave written, informed Address correspondence and reprint requests to David L. Reich, MD, consent to participate were used. Of the 113 residents, The Mount Sinai School of Medicine, One Gustave L. Levy Pl., Box 1010, New York, NY 10029. Address e-mail to david reich@smtplink 67 (59%) consented to participate in the study. Over .mssm.edu. the 3 yr during which the study was conducted, 40 ©1999 by the International Anesthesia Research Society 1092 Anesth Analg 1999;88:1092–1100 0003-2999/99
  • 2. ANESTH ANALG ECONOMICS AND HEALTH SYSTEMS RESEARCH REICH ET AL. 1093 1999;88:1092–1100 PREDICTIVE EVALUATION OF RESIDENTS two-letter sequences embedded in visual noise. Stim- uli were presented for 85 ms, separated by an 850-ms interstimulus interval. To better simulate the divided attention demands present in operating rooms (ORs), this task was modified according to the methodology of Solberg and Mateer (unpublished data) to include an auditory signal detection task consisting of an au- dio tape recording of ventilator disconnect alarms in- terspersed among normal OR background noise. Thus, both auditory and visual signal detection tasks were presented simultaneously. Errors of omission and commission were recorded for both visual and auditory attention tasks. Sustained and divided atten- tion were also measured using the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test (PASAT) (8), in which subjects Figure 1. The computerized daily evaluation system display of the add pairs of random digits presented via an audio criteria for evaluating an anesthesiology resident in the domain of tape, such that each digit is added to the one imme- essential character attributes. diately preceding it. The test consists of four series of 50 digits, and the rate of digit presentation increases Table 1. Demographic Characteristics of Anesthesiology across series. In this study, the first three rates of Resident Study Sample presentation were administered. In addition to the Gender ability to sustain and divide attention, the PASAT M 70.1 requires rapid information processing. F 29.9 Residents’ academic performance was recorded for Race Caucasian 74.6 the following five examinations: Non-Caucasian 25.4 Medical school 1. Anesthesia Knowledge Test 1 Pretest (Metrics American 85.1 Associates, Inc., Chelmsford, MA) (first week of International 14.9 training) 2. Anesthesia Knowledge Test 1 Posttest (Metrics Values are expressed as percentages. Associates) (first month of training) 3. Anesthesia Knowledge Test 6 (Metrics Associ- first-year residents entered. During the first year of the ates) (after 6 mo of training) study, 13 second-year and 14 third-year residents also 4. ABA-ASA In-Training Examination (Joint Coun- entered the study. All test results were coded to pre- cil on In-Training Examinations, Park Ridge, IL) serve participant confidentiality. Demographic char- (first month of training) acteristics (age, race, gender, and United States versus 5. ABA-ASA In-Training Examination (Joint Coun- international medical graduate status) were recorded. cil on In-Training Examinations) (after 13 mo of Psychological tests were administered during the training) first 6 mo of residency training using four published The members of the clinical competence committee instruments with demonstrated validity and reliabil- and the residents were not blinded to the results of ity. Both residents and clinical competence commit- these examinations. tee members were blinded to the psychological test Clinical performance for anesthesiology residents results. was evaluated using the five criteria defined by the Personality was assessed using the California Per- American Board of Anesthesiology: essential character sonality Inventory (CPI), which consists of 462 items attributes, acquired character skills, clinical skills, comprising 23 personality scales. Trait-anxiety was judgment, and knowledge (9). All residents were rated measured using a 20-item scale of the State-Trait Anx- on a scale of 1–5 of increasing competence (Fig. 1). At iety Inventory (7). The Mount Sinai School of Medicine, the daily perfor- The Vigil (For Thought, Ltd., Nashua, NH), a con- mance of anesthesiology residents was rated by at- tinuous performance test, was used to measure sus- tending anesthesiologists using a computerized eval- tained focused attention. It is a visual signal detection uation system. Using the same criteria, the clinical task that requires subjects to observe a computer competence of anesthesiology residents rotating at af- screen for an extended period of time (approximately filiate hospitals was assessed manually on a monthly 8 min) and to respond rapidly to simple, single-letter basis by attending physicians who had worked with targets or to complex targets consisting of specific those residents. Both the computerized and manual
  • 3. 1094 ECONOMICS AND HEALTH SYSTEMS RESEARCH REICH ET AL. ANESTH ANALG PREDICTIVE EVALUATION OF RESIDENTS 1999;88:1092–1100 Table 2. Significance Levels for Associations Among Selected Predictor Variables PASAT3 Vigil-Co CPI-V1 CPI-V2 CPI-FX AKT-1 ITE-1 PASAT3 1.00 Vigil-Co 0.05 1.00 CPI-V1 0.09 0.82 1.00 CPI-V2 0.90 0.26 0.30 1.00 CPI-FX 0.82 0.20 0.71 Ͻ0.01 1.00 AKT-1 0.80 0.91 0.19 0.17 0.68 1.00 ITE-1 0.93 0.57 0.59 0.44 0.61 Ͻ0.01 1.00 PASAT3 ϭ third trial of the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test, Vigil-Co ϭ commission errors during complex visual target detection on the Vigil (For Thought Ltd., Nashua, NH), CPI-V1 ϭ California Personality Inventory Introversion/Extroversion Scale, CPI-V2 ϭ California Personality Inventory Norm- Favoring/Norm-Doubting Scale, CPI-Fx ϭ California Personality Inventory Flexibility Scale, AKT-1 ϭ Anesthesia Knowledge Test 1 (administered during the first week of training), ITE-1 ϭ ABA-ASA In-Training Examination (administered during the first month of training). Table 3. Independent Contribution of PASAT3 to Predict evaluation systems provided attending anesthesiolo- Poor Clinical Outcome gists the opportunity to make written comments. All evaluations over 3-mo intervals were presented to the Low commission High commission errors errors 15–20 members of the clinical competence committee. (Vigil-Co Յ5) (Vigil-Co Ͼ5) P ϭ 0.05 At quarterly meetings, the committee members used PASAT3 Յ30 42.9 75.0 these daily and monthly evaluations to arrive at con- PASAT3 30–40 10.0 60.0 sensus evaluation scores for each resident in the five PASAT3 Ͼ40 14.3 0.0 domains of clinical competence. Clinical competence data from the subset of subjects Extroversion Introversion (CPI-V1 Յ50) (CPI-V1 Ͼ50) P ϭ 0.04 entering the study as first-year residents were ana- lyzed using growth curve methods (10) to determine PASAT3 Յ30 33.3 80.0 the pattern of changes in clinical competence scores PASAT3 30–40 18.2 50.0 PASAT3 Ͼ40 10.5 25.0 over the course of the residency. The demographic variables were evaluated for all subjects by using ei- Norm-doubting Norm-favoring ther ␹2 or Wilcoxon analyses to determine whether (CPI-V2 Յ50) (CPI-V2 Ͼ50) P ϭ 0.01 these variables predicted status at baseline or change PASAT3 Յ30 66.7 40.0 over time. PASAT3 30–40 40.0 20.0 Residents were classified as having poor clinical PASAT3 Ͼ40 16.7 9.1 performance if they left the program for poor perfor- Inflexible Flexible mance or were in the lowest 25th percentile for Ͼ50% (CPI-Fx Յ50) (CPI-Fx Ͼ50) P ϭ 0.01 of their evaluations. All other residents were classified PASAT3 Յ30 25.0 71.4 as having good clinical performance. The cognitive, PASAT3 30–40 20.0 40.0 personality, and academic tests produced 46 different PASAT3 Ͼ40 0 21.4 scores for each resident. Each of the scores was di- vided into quartiles, and the outcomes were examined Poor academic Good academic knowledge knowledge for suggestions of appropriate categories for the sta- (AKT-1 Յ50) (AKT-1 Ͼ50) P ϭ 0.02 tistical analyses. On this basis, scores were grouped PASAT3 Յ30 44.4 100.0 into two or three categories, and ␹2 tests of association PASAT3 30–40 40.0 0.0 or of trend were used to identify which of these meas- PASAT3 Ͼ40 17.6 0.0 ures showed evidence of association with poor clinical performance. A value of P Ͻ 0.10 was the criterion Poor academic Good academic knowledge knowledge used for this screening process. (ITE-1 Յ15) (ITE-1 Ͼ15) P ϭ 0.01 PASAT3 Յ30 57.1 50.0 PASAT3 30–40 25.0 25.0 Results PASAT3 Ͼ40 23.1 0.0 The correlations among the five clinical competence Values are presented as the percentage of subjects meeting the given domains (essential character attributes, acquired char- criteria. PASAT3 ϭ third trial of the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test, Vigil- acter skills, knowledge, judgment, and clinical skills) Co ϭ commission errors during complex visual target detection on the Vigil were statistically significant at every 3-mo assessment. (For Thought Ltd., Nashua, NH), CPI-V1 ϭ California Personality Inventory Introversion/Extroversion Scale, CPI-V2 ϭ California Personality Inventory For example, at the 3-mo assessment, the range of Norm-Favoring/Norm-Doubting Scale, CPI-Fx ϭ California Personality In- correlation coefficients among all pairs of clinical com- ventory Flexibility Scale, AKT-1 ϭ Anesthesia Knowledge Test 1 (adminis- tered during the first week of training), ITE-1 ϭ ABA-ASA In-Training petence variables was 0.51– 0.94 (all P Ͻ 0.001). This Examination (administered during the first month of training). indicates that very little additional information would
  • 4. ANESTH ANALG ECONOMICS AND HEALTH SYSTEMS RESEARCH REICH ET AL. 1095 1999;88:1092–1100 PREDICTIVE EVALUATION OF RESIDENTS Table 4. Independent Contribution of Vigil-Co to Predict Poor Clinical Outcome Poor mental arithmetic Moderate mental arithmetic Good mental arithmetic (PASAT3 Յ30) (PASAT3 30–40) (PASAT3 Ͼ40) P ϭ 0.08 Vigil-Co Յ5 42.9 10.0 14.3 Vigil-Co Ͼ5 75.0 60.0 0.0 Extroversion Introversion (CPI-V1 Յ50) (CPI-V1 Ͼ50) P ϭ 0.01 Vigil-Co Յ5 10.7 40.0 Vigil-Co Ͼ5 42.9 100.0 Norm-doubting Norm-favoring (CPI-V2 Յ50) (CPI-V2 Ͼ50) P ϭ 0.00 Vigil-Co Յ5 31.6 5.3 Vigil-Co Ͼ5 66.7 57.1 Inflexible Flexible (CPI-Fx Յ50) (CPI-Fx Ͼ50) P ϭ 0.03 Vigil-Co Յ5 5.0 33.3 Vigil-Co Ͼ5 66.7 57.1 Poor academic knowledge Good academic knowledge (AKT-1 Յ50) (AKT-1 Ͼ50) P ϭ 0.02 Vigil-Co Յ5 25.9 0.0 Vigil-Co Ͼ5 50.0 66.7 Poor academic knowledge Good academic knowledge (ITE-1 Յ15) (ITE-1 Ͼ15) P ϭ 0.02 Vigil-Co Յ5 29.4 9.5 Vigil-Co Ͼ5 50.0 60.0 Values are expressed as percentages. PASAT3 ϭ third trial of the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test, Vigil-Co ϭ commission errors during complex visual target detection on the Vigil (For Thought Ltd., Nashua, NH), CPI-V1 ϭ California Personality Inventory Introversion/Extroversion Scale, CPI-V2 ϭ California Personality Inventory Norm- Favoring/Norm-Doubting Scale, CPI-Fx ϭ California Personality Inventory Flexibility Scale, AKT-1 ϭ Anesthesia Knowledge Test 1 (administered during the first week of training), ITE-1 ϭ ABA-ASA In-Training Examination (administered during the first month of training). be obtained by analyzing these domains separately. Of the 67 participating residents, 3 (4%) left the Therefore, the remainder of the results were derived program due to poor clinical performance, and 4 left from analyses of the mean of the five domain scores. the program for other reasons. Of the 67 participating A growth curve model was fit to the clinical com- residents who completed the residency program, 18 petence rating scores to model status at baseline and (27%) were classified as having poor clinical perfor- improvement over the course of residency. This anal- mance based on their clinical competence ratings, ysis was limited to the subset of subjects who entered yielding a total of 21 residents (31%) who met the the study as first-year residents. The results from the criteria for poor clinical performance. model indicate that the mean rating at the start of The demographic characteristics of the study sam- residency (intercept) was 3.4 and that there was a ple are presented in Table 1. The sample was pre- slight but statistically significant improvement over dominantly male, Caucasian, and American medical time (slope 0.017/month; P Ͻ 0.01). Analysis of the school graduates. The median age was 28 yr. Age, random effects showed significant individual differ- gender, race, and graduate status did not predict poor ences in the intercept (z ϭ 4.41, P Ͻ 0.01), which clinical performance (P Ͼ 0.40). indicates that there was significant variability among Of the 46 cognitive, personality, and academic vari- the first-year residents at the start of residency. The ables, 7 met our criterion (P Ͻ 0.10) for a univariate residents’ scores improved at an equivalent rate over predictor variable. The predictive cognitive variables the course of the residency, as indicated by a random were low score on the third and most challenging trial effect for slopes that was not statistically significant of the PASAT (PASAT3) and high number of commis- (z ϭ 0.91, P ϭ 0.36). Thus, the relative ranking of the sion errors during complex visual target detection on residents as reflected in the clinical competence rat- the Vigil (Vigil-Co). The personality variables that ings was stable over time. Clinical competence ratings predicted poor clinical outcome were high CPI at baseline also did not predict rate of change (z Ͻ 1). Introversion/Extroversion Scale score (CPI-V1), low
  • 5. 1096 ECONOMICS AND HEALTH SYSTEMS RESEARCH REICH ET AL. ANESTH ANALG PREDICTIVE EVALUATION OF RESIDENTS 1999;88:1092–1100 Table 5. Independent Contribution of CPI-V1 to Predict Poor Clinical Outcome Poor mental arithmetic Moderate mental arithmetic Good mental arithmetic (PASAT3 Յ30) (PASAT3 30–40) (PASAT3 Ͼ40) P ϭ 0.04 CPI-V1 Յ50 33.3 18.2 10.5 CPI-V1 Ͼ50 80.0 50.0 25.0 Low commission errors High commission errors (Vigil-Co Յ5) (Vigil-Co Ͼ5) P ϭ 0.01 CPI-V1 Յ50 10.7 42.9 CPI-V1 Ͼ50 40.0 100.0 Norm-doubting Norm-favoring (CPI-V2 Յ50) (CPI-V2 Ͼ50) P ϭ 0.01 CPI-V1 Յ50 18.7 21.4 CPI-V1 Ͼ50 80.0 30.0 Inflexible Flexible (CPI-Fx Յ50) (CPI-Fx Ͼ50) P ϭ 0.00 CPI-V1 Յ50 13.6 27.3 CPI-V1 Ͼ50 27.3 88.9 Poor academic knowledge Good academic knowledge (AKT-1 Յ50) (AKT-1 Ͼ50) P ϭ 0.01 CPI-V1 Յ50 23.1 15.4 CPI-V1 Ͼ50 73.3 0.0 Poor academic knowledge Good academic knowledge (ITE-1 Յ15) (ITE-1 Ͼ15) P ϭ 0.01 CPI-V1 Յ50 30.0 9.1 CPI-V1 Ͼ50 63.6 44.4 Values are expressed as percentages. PASAT3 ϭ third trial of the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test, Vigil-Co ϭ commission errors during complex visual target detection on the Vigil (For Thought Ltd., Nashua, NH), CPI-V1 ϭ California Personality Inventory Introversion/Extroversion Scale, CPI-V2 ϭ California Personality Inventory Norm- Favoring/Norm-Doubting Scale, CPI-Fx ϭ California Personality Inventory Flexibility Scale, AKT-1 ϭ Anesthesia Knowledge Test 1 (administered during the first week of training), ITE-1 ϭ ABA-ASA In-Training Examination (administered during the first month of training). CPI Norm-Favoring/Norm-Doubting Scale score results demonstrate that the PASAT3 contributes ad- (CPI-V2), and high CPI Flexibility Scale score (CPI-Fx). ditional information after controlling for the influence Academic knowledge variables that predicted poor of each of the six other predictor variables. The pro- performance were low scores on the Anesthesia portion of residents who ultimately demonstrated Knowledge Test 1 administered during the first week poor clinical performance decreased as the PASAT3 of training (AKT-1), and the ABA-ASA In-Training score increased. This trend was observed for residents Examination administered during the first month of with low and with high Vigil-Co scores, although the training (ITE-1). overall level of poor performance differed in the two Several of these variables were associated with each subgroups. Table 4 shows the comparable analysis of other, and this association reached statistical signifi- the independent contribution of Vigil-Co. Five of six cance in three instances (Table 2). Based on this and Mantel-Haenszel tests are statistically significant. This the relatively small sample size, we believed that these analysis demonstrates that both low scores on PA- data did not lend themselves to picking one “best” SAT3 and high rates of commission errors on the combination of independent predictors, as in a multi- Vigil-Co (score Ͼ5) are independent predictors of variate regression analysis. Instead, these data are pre- poor clinical performance. sented in the form of contingency tables that allowed The independent contribution of high CPI-V1 tests of the independence of association among each of scores in predicting poor performance is shown the seven univariate predictor variables. The Mantel- in Table 5. The statistically significant Mantel- Haenszel test was used to test for statistical signifi- Haenszel tests demonstrate that CPI-V1 contributes cance. These data are presented in Tables 3–9. additional information after controlling for the in- The independent contribution of PASAT3 to pre- fluence of the six other predictor variables. In con- dicting poor performance is demonstrated in Table 3, trast, the CPI-V2 was not a strong independent pre- in which the statistically significant Mantel-Haenszel dictor in this sample; none of the Mantel-Haenszel
  • 6. ANESTH ANALG ECONOMICS AND HEALTH SYSTEMS RESEARCH REICH ET AL. 1097 1999;88:1092–1100 PREDICTIVE EVALUATION OF RESIDENTS Table 6. Independent Contribution of CPI-V2 to Predict Poor Clinical Outcome Poor mental arithmetic Moderate mental arithmetic Good mental arithmetic (PASAT3 Յ30) (PASAT3 30–40) (PASAT3 Ͼ40) P ϭ 0.21 CPI-V2 Յ50 66.7 40.0 16.7 CPI-V2 Ͼ50 40.0 20.0 9.1 Low commission errors High commission errors (Vigil-Co Յ5) (Vigil-Co Ͼ5) P ϭ 0.06 CPI-V2 Յ50 31.6 66.7 CPI-V2 Ͼ50 5.3 57.1 Extroversion Introversion (CPI-V1 Յ50) (CPI-V1 Ͼ50) P ϭ 0.20 CPI-V2 Յ50 18.8 80.0 CPI-V2 Ͼ50 21.4 30.0 Inflexible Flexible (CPI-Fx Յ50) (CPI-Fx Ͼ50) P ϭ 0.49 CPI-V2 Յ50 28.6 47.4 CPI-V2 Ͼ50 15.4 41.7 Poor academic knowledge Good academic knowledge (AKT-1 Յ50) (AKT-1 Ͼ50) P ϭ 0.33 CPI-V2 Յ50 52.4 0.0 CPI-V2 Ͼ50 30.0 18.2 Poor academic knowledge Good academic knowledge (ITE-1 Յ15) (ITE-1 Ͼ15) P ϭ 0.12 CPI-V2 Յ50 54.6 28.6 CPI-V2 Ͼ50 35.0 11.8 Values are expressed as percentages. PASAT3 ϭ third trial of the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test, Vigil-Co ϭ commission errors during complex visual target detection on the Vigil (For Thought Ltd., Nashua, NH), CPI-V1 ϭ California Personality Inventory Introversion/Extroversion Scale, CPI-V2 ϭ California Personality Inventory Norm- Favoring/Norm-Doubting Scale, CPI-Fx ϭ California Personality Inventory Flexibility Scale, AKT-1 ϭ Anesthesia Knowledge Test 1 (administered during the first week of training), ITE-1 ϭ ABA-ASA In-Training Examination (administered during the first month of training). tests reached statistical significance (Table 6). High (Vigil-Co) and poor performance on a test of rapid CPI-Fx scores seem to convey moderate indepen- mental arithmetic (PASAT3) were both independent dent prediction of poor performance, which reached predictors of poor clinical performance. The excessive or approached statistical significance in all six errors of commission indicate that the subjects dem- Mantel-Haenszel tests (Table 7). onstrated impulsive behavior in a test situation that The AKT-1 and ITE-1 test results are presented in required vigilance. Specifically, the impulsive subjects Tables 8 and 9. These tests were independent of per- had trouble discriminating targets from background sonality variables, but not of the cognitive tests, as noise. This test is analogous to the OR environment, in reflected by the Mantel-Haenszel tests. which an impulsive resident would be expected to have difficulty discriminating pertinent clinical abnor- malities from artifactual or distracting data. The rapid Discussion mental arithmetic ability could be described as the Psychological factors are associated with clinical com- ability to “think on one’s feet.” Slow speed of mental petence in residency training programs(3–5). In this processing and difficulty ignoring irrelevant informa- study, we examined cognitive, personality, and aca- tion are undesirable characteristics in an anesthesiol- demic knowledge test scores in anesthesiology resi- ogist that may be detected by this test. dents and investigated their relationship to clinical In the personality domain, the independent predic- competence over the course of training. Several meas- tors of poor performance were introversion and high ures were independent predictors of poor clinical per- flexibility. Introverted individuals, as defined by the formance, as defined by poor clinical competence rat- CPI-V1, are described as reticent, shy, reserved, and ings or discontinuation from the residency program reluctant to initiate or take decisive social action (as for poor clinical performance. opposed to outgoing, confident, talkative individuals In the cognitive domain, excessive errors of commis- with social poise and presence). Highly flexible indi- sion on a test of sustained and divided attention viduals (as defined by the CPI-Fx) are described as
  • 7. 1098 ECONOMICS AND HEALTH SYSTEMS RESEARCH REICH ET AL. ANESTH ANALG PREDICTIVE EVALUATION OF RESIDENTS 1999;88:1092–1100 Table 7. Independent Contribution of CPI-Fx to Predict Poor Clinical Outcome Poor mental arithmetic Moderate mental arithmetic Good mental arithmetic (PASAT3 Յ30) (PASAT3 30–40) (PASAT3 Ͼ40) P ϭ 0.03 CPI-Fx Յ50 25.0 20.0 0.0 CPI-Fx Ͼ50 71.4 40.0 21.4 Low commission errors High commission errors (Vigil-Co Յ5) (Vigil-Co Ͼ5) P ϭ 0.08 CPI-Fx Յ50 5.0 66.7 CPI-Fx Ͼ50 33.3 57.1 Extroversion Introversion (CPI-V1 Յ50) (CPI-V1 Ͼ50) P ϭ 0.01 CPI-Fx Յ50 13.6 27.3 CPI-Fx Ͼ50 27.3 88.9 Norm-doubting Norm-favoring (CPI-V2 Յ50) (CPI-V2 Ͼ50) P ϭ 0.06 CPI-Fx Յ50 28.6 15.4 CPI-Fx Ͼ50 47.4 41.7 Poor academic knowledge Good academic knowledge (AKT-1 Յ50) (AKT-1 Ͼ50) P ϭ 0.04 CPI-Fx Յ50 27.8 0.0 CPI-Fx Ͼ50 52.2 25.5 Poor academic knowledge Good academic knowledge (ITE-1 Յ15) (ITE-1 Ͼ15) P ϭ 0.04 CPI-Fx Յ50 33.3 5.9 CPI-Fx Ͼ50 50.0 35.7 Values are expressed as percentages. PASAT3 ϭ third trial of the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test, Vigil-Co ϭ commission errors during complex visual target detection on the Vigil (For Thought Ltd., Nashua, NH), CPI-V1 ϭ California Personality Inventory Introversion/Extroversion Scale, CPI-V2 ϭ California Personality Inventory Norm- Favoring/Norm-Doubting Scale, CPI-Fx ϭ California Personality Inventory Flexibility Scale, AKT-1 ϭ Anesthesia Knowledge Test 1 (administered during the first week of training), ITE-1 ϭ ABA-ASA In-Training Examination (administered during the first month of training). those who like change and variety, are easily bored by implies that the relative ranking of the residents by the routine, and may be impatient and erratic (as opposed faculty tended not to change over the course of the to stubborn, rigid, steady-paced individuals who like residency and that the faculty perceived that nearly all an organized life). The potential disadvantages of cer- residents improved at nearly equal rates over time. tain of these personality characteristics in an anesthe- We also observed a statistically significant correlation siologist are self-evident. In contrast to our expecta- among the scores in the five domains of clinical com- tions, anxiety was not a predictor of poor clinical petence. This implies that the faculty usually made performance. summary judgments of the residents’ performances In the academic domain, only the tests administered and did not differentiate, to any significant degree, within the first month of initiation of anesthesiology among performances in the different domains. Never- residency (AKT-1 and ITE-1) were mildly predictive of theless, the clinical competence committee did dis- poor clinical performance. They were independent of criminate among the five evaluation domains for cer- the personality variables, but not of the cognitive vari- tain residents. Another limitation of the evaluation ables. The predictive value of the academic tests may process is that the evaluators were aware of previous reflect the individual’s level of preparedness for anes- assessments of the residents’ performances. thesiology training. Specifically, those who had stud- This is the first study to examine the relationship ied anesthesiology-related facts in advance and who between the cognitive abilities (sustained and divided were generally good test-takers performed better in attention, rapid information processing) and clinical the residency. It may also reflect a difference in the performance of anesthesiology residents. Previous motivation of the individuals to learn anesthesiology- studies have investigated the relationship between specific facts. personality attributes (CPI) and clinical performance The pattern of the clinical competence ratings was of anesthesiology residents (4,5) and have identified notable in that residents’ scores began at different independence, empathy, socialization, well-being, and levels but tended to improve equally over time. This achievement via conformance as attributes that have
  • 8. ANESTH ANALG ECONOMICS AND HEALTH SYSTEMS RESEARCH REICH ET AL. 1099 1999;88:1092–1100 PREDICTIVE EVALUATION OF RESIDENTS Table 8. Independent Contribution of AKT-1 to Predict Poor Clinical Outcome Poor mental arithmetic Moderate mental arithmetic Good mental arithmetic (PASAT3 Յ30) (PASAT3 30–40) (PASAT3 Ͼ40) P ϭ 0.29 AKT-1 Յ50 44.4 40 17.6 AKT-1 Ͼ50 100 0 0 Low commission errors High commission errors (Vigil-Co Յ5) (Vigil-Co Ͼ5) P ϭ 0.21 AKT-1 Յ50 25.9 50 AKT-1 Ͼ50 0 66.7 Extroversion Introversion (CPI-V1 Յ50) (CPI-V1 Ͼ50) P ϭ 0.08 AKT-1 Յ50 23.1 73.3 AKT-1 Ͼ50 15.4 0.0 Norm-doubting Norm-favoring (CPI-V2 Յ50) (CPI-V2 Ͼ50) P ϭ 0.06 AKT-1 Յ50 52.4 30.0 AKT-1 Ͼ50 0.0 18.18 Inflexible Flexible (CPI-Fx Յ50) (CPI-Fx Ͼ50) P ϭ 0.04 AKT-1 Յ50 27.8 52.2 AKT-1 Ͼ50 0.0 25.0 Poor academic knowledge Good academic knowledge (ITE-1 Յ15) (ITE-1 Ͼ15) P ϭ 0.21 AKT-1 Յ50 40.7 35.7 AKT-1 Ͼ50 100.0 6.7 Values are expressed as percentages. PASAT3 ϭ third trial of the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test, Vigil-Co ϭ commission errors during complex visual target detection on the Vigil (For Thought Ltd., Nashua, NH), CPI-V1 ϭ California Personality Inventory Introversion/Extroversion Scale, CPI-V2 ϭ California Personality Inventory Norm- Favoring/Norm-Doubting Scale, CPI-Fx ϭ California Personality Inventory Flexibility Scale, AKT-1 ϭ Anesthesia Knowledge Test 1 (administered during the first week of training), ITE-1 ϭ ABA-ASA In-Training Examination (administered during the first month of training). statistically significant positive correlations with resi- may not relate to clinical practice after residency. The dency performance. Although those authors reported study is further limited by the incomplete enrollment a moderate predictive effect, none of the correlation of anesthesiology residents. The group that declined coefficients were Ͼ0.30, which indicates that a mini- to participate in the study may have had demo- mal amount of variance (r2 Յ 0.09) was attributable to graphic, cognitive, personality, or academic character- each of these individual factors. In contrast, in the istics that differed from the study group—a selection current study, we examined the independent associa- bias. The data from nonparticipating residents are not tion of cognitive, personality, and academic measures available to make such comparisons. Furthermore, with poor clinical performance. this was a single-center study. It is therefore unknown There are several limitations of our methodology. whether the results of this study would be similar at Although based on a standard system and consistent other institutions. over time, the clinical competence ratings are subjec- This was a longitudinal study of predictors of anes- tive. Because the performance of individual residents thesiology residency performance at one institution. was ranked relative to the performance of the entire Many statistical tests were performed. Despite this and group and was not based on an absolute standard of other limitations, the data suggest that some cognitive, minimal competency, the high rate of poor perfor- personality, and academic measures are associated with mance is a consequence of the operational definition clinical competence in a sample of anesthesiology resi- used for this study. The clinical competence ratings dents. The ability of these measures to predict individual cannot be validated against a more objective measure resident’s clinical performance should be confirmed in a because none exists. The clinical competence ratings prospective, multicenter study. are also limited in that they are a global evaluation of clinical performance and do not allow discrimination We gratefully acknowledge the assistance of Dr. Michelle Marks between OR and non-OR performance. Furthermore, with the original design and implementation of this study. clinical competence ratings made during residency
  • 9. 1100 ECONOMICS AND HEALTH SYSTEMS RESEARCH REICH ET AL. ANESTH ANALG PREDICTIVE EVALUATION OF RESIDENTS 1999;88:1092–1100 Table 9. Independent Contribution of ITE-1 to Predict Poor Clinical Outcome Poor mental arithmetic Moderate mental arithmetic Good mental arithmetic (PASAT3 Յ30) (PASAT3 30–40) (PASAT3 Ͼ40) P ϭ 0.29 ITE-1 Յ15 57.1 25.0 23.1 ITE-1 Ͼ15 50.0 25.0 0 Low commission errors High commission errors (Vigil-Co Յ5) (Vigil-Co Ͼ5) P ϭ 0.28 ITE-1 Յ15 29.4 50.0 ITE-1 Ͼ15 9.5 60.0 Extroversion Introversion (CPI-V1 Յ50) (CPI-V1 Ͼ50) P ϭ 0.07 ITE-1 Յ15 30.0 63.6 ITE-1 Ͼ15 9.1 44.4 Norm-doubting Norm-favoring (CPI-V2 Յ50) (CPI-V2 Ͼ50) P ϭ 0.04 ITE-1 Յ15 54.6 35.0 ITE-1 Ͼ15 28.6 11.8 Inflexible Flexible (CPI-Fx Յ50) (CPI-Fx Ͼ50) P ϭ 0.07 ITE-1 Յ15 33.3 50.0 ITE-1 Ͼ15 5.9 35.7 Poor academic knowledge Good academic knowledge (AKT-1 Յ50) (AKT-1 Ͼ50) P ϭ 0.38 ITE-1 Յ15 40.7 100.0 ITE-1 Ͼ15 35.7 6.7 Values are expressed as percentages. PASAT3 ϭ third trial of the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test, Vigil-Co ϭ commission errors during complex visual target detection on the Vigil (For Thought Ltd., Nashua, NH), CPI-V1 ϭ California Personality Inventory Introversion/Extroversion Scale, CPI-V2 ϭ California Personality Inventory Norm- Favoring/Norm-Doubting Scale, CPI-Fx ϭ California Personality Inventory Flexibility Scale, AKT-1 ϭ Anesthesia Knowledge Test 1 (administered during the first week of training), ITE-1 ϭ ABA-ASA In-Training Examination (administered during the first month of training). 6. Loeb RG. A measure of intraoperative attention to monitor References displays. Anesth Analg 1993;76:337– 41. 1. Price PB, Taylor CW, Richards JM, Jacobsen TL. Measurement 7. Spielberger CD. State-Trait Anxiety Inventory. Palo Alto, CA: of physician performance. J Med Educ 1964;39:203–11. Consulting Psychologists Press, 1970. 2. Wingard JR, Williamson JW. Grades as predictors of physician’s 8. Gronwall D. Paced auditory serial addition task: a measure of career performance: an evaluative literature review. J Med Educ recovery from concussion. Percept Motor Skills 1977;44:367–73. 1973;48:312–22. 9. American Board of Anesthesiology. Defining competence in 3. Keck JW, Arnold L, Willoughby L, Calkins V. Efficacy of anesthesiology. Hartford, CT: American Board of Anesthesiol- cognitive/noncognitive measures in predicting resident- ogy, 1993. physician performance. J Med Educ 1979;54:759 – 65. 10. Bryk AS, Raudenbush SW. Hierarchical linear models. New- 4. McDonald JS, Lingam RP, Gupta B, et al. Psychologic testing as bury Park, CA: Sage Publications, 1992. an aid to selection of residents in anesthesiology. Anesth Analg 1994;78:542–7. 5. Gough HG, Bradley P, McDonald JS. Performance of residents in anesthesiology as related to measures of personality and interests. Psychol Rep 1991;3:979 –94.