Global climate change phenomena, impacts and adaptations

1. GLOBAL CLIMATE
CHANGE: PHENOMENA,
IMPACTS & ADAPTATIONS

2. PHENOMENA

3. Introduction
• Weather
• Climate
• Climatic variability
• Climate change
• IPCC-Both Natural & Human causes
• UNFCCC-Human activities

4. 3/5/2021
Climate Change : Causes
EXTRA TERRESTIAL CAUSES
Solar output variation: H2 &He fusion
Sunspot activities: small increase of
heat(>1%) with
cycles of 11,
22,44,80 years
 Interstellar
dust
hypothesis

5. Climate Change :
Causes
ASTRONOMICAL CAUSES (EARTH
GEOMETRY)
Eccentricity of the orbit: oval to circular
Precession of equinoxes
Obliquity of the ecliptic

6. Human-Forced Climate Change
Climate changes can be human forced.
Fossil fuels
Aerosols
Land use
Livestock

7. GREENHOUSE GASES
Gas Pre-
industrial
Level
Current
Level
Increase
since
1750
Radiative
forcing
(W/m2)
Carbon
dioxide
280 ppm 384ppm 104 ppm 1.46
Methan
e
700 ppb 1,745
ppb
1,045
ppb
0.48
Nitrous
oxide
270 ppb 314 ppb 44 ppb 0.15
CFC-12 0 533 ppt 533 ppt 0.17

8. Global Atmospheric Concentration of CO2
370 ppmv
600 ppmv
600 ppmv
370 ppmv

9. Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time
100 0.0740.018
50 0.1280.026
Warmest 12 years:
1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006,
2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000
Period Rate
Years /decade
Source: IPCC, 2007

10. Glaciers are receding world-wide
Retreat of Gangotri glacier
Source: NASA/IPCC, 2007

11. IMPACTS

12. Range of Uncertainty Typical in Climate Impact Assessments

13. Physical impacts
Extreme weather
Increased evaporation
Oceans
Sea level rise
Temperature rise
Acidification
Shutdown of
thermohaline circulation

14. Vulnerability Mapping of India
Vulnerability is a
function of the
sensitivity of a system
to changes in climate,
adaptive capacity and
the degree of
exposure of the
system to climatic
hazards.

15.  Wide variation in regional productivities
 Studies indicate a loss of 10-40% in crop production
by 2100.
 Shifting of Agricultural belts and zones
 Imbalance in food trade
 Impact on Animal husbandry and fisheries
As a result
Small & marginal farmer suffers more
Unemployment
Poverty, Hunger & malnutrition
Migration
Agriculture

16. Projected Impacts of climate
Change on Indian Agriculture
 Productivity of most cereals would decrease due to
increase in temperature and decrease in water
availability (especially in Indo-Gangetic plains).
 Greater loss expected in rabi. Every 1oC increase in
temperature reduces wheat production by 4-5 million
tons. This can be reduced to 1-2 million tons only if
farmers change to timely planting.
 Reduced frequency of frost damage in Punjab
(beneficial).

17. Projected Impacts of Climate
Change on Indian Agriculture
 Considerable effect on microbes,
pathogens, and insects.
 Increasing temperature would increase
fertilizer requirement for the same
production targets; and result in higher
emissions.
 Increasing sea and river water
temperatures are likely to affect fish
breeding, migration, and harvests. Coral
reefs start declining from 2030.

18. 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1
9
8
0
-
8
1
1
9
8
2
-
8
3
1
9
8
4
-
8
5
1
9
8
6
-
8
7
1
9
8
8
-
8
9
1
9
9
0
-
9
1
1
9
9
2
-
9
3
1
9
9
4
-
9
5
1
9
9
6
-
9
7
1
9
9
8
-
9
9
2
0
0
0
-
2
0
0
1
Years
Yield
(Tons)
Declining apple yields in Himachal
due to inadequate chilling
Source: HPKVV/ICAR network

19. Rice cultivation
23%
Manure
management
5%
Emission from
soils
12%
Enteric
fermentation
59%
Crop residues
1%
Source: India’s Initial National Communication on Climate Change, 2004
Contribute of Agriculture to
Climate Change

20. India’s potential of GHG emissions from rice
Organization Methane
estimates (Tg)
EPA
(1990)
37.8
IPCC
(1995)
20.2
Mitra
(1998)
4.19
NATCOM
(2004)
4.07
IARI
(2004)
2.9
IARI
(2006)
2.18 Source:
Agrawal,2007

21. Water Resources
• Positive eustasy (sea-level rise) may contaminate
groundwater, affecting drinking water and agriculture in
coastal zones.
• Increased extreme weather means more water falls on
hardened ground unable to absorb it.
• In some areas, shrinking glaciers threaten the water
supply.
• Higher temperatures will also increase the demand for
water for the purposes of cooling and hydration.
• In the Sahel, there has been on average a 25%
decrease in annual rainfall over the past 30 years.

22. Insurance
• 35-40% of the worst catastrophes have
been climate change related.(ERM,2002)
• Insured losses increased 15 folds in real
terms since the 1960s.
• Rising insurance premium as well as costs
related to disaster relief, burden
customers, taxpayers and industries.

23. Infrastructure
• Roads, airport runways, railway lines and pipelines,
(including oil pipelines, sewers, water mains etc) may
require increased maintenance and renewal as they
become subject to greater temperature variation.
• Regions already adversely affected include areas of
permafrost, which are subject to high levels of
subsidence, resulting in buckling roads, sunken
foundations, and severely cracked runways.
• Massive investment needed for enhanced infrastructure
as well as clean technologies.

24. Migration
• IPCC estimated that 150 million environmental refugees will exist in the year
2050, mainly due to the effects of coastal flooding, shoreline erosion and
agricultural disruption.
• Some Pacific Ocean island nations, such as Tuvalu, are concerned about
the possibility of an eventual evacuation, as flood defense may become
economically inviable for them. Tuvalu already has an ad hoc agreement
with New Zealand to allow phased relocation.
• Villagers in India's North Eastern state of Meghalaya are also concerned that
rising sea levels will submerge neighbouring low-lying Bangladesh, resulting
in an influx of refugees into Meghalaya—which has few resources to handle
such a situation.

25. Vulnerability to 1m sea
level rise
Globally over
200m people
Would be
displaced.
India:- 7.1m
people.
Source:TERI,2006

26. Extreme weather-
related (floods, storms,
etc.) health effects
Health effects
Temperature-related
illness and death
Extreme weather-
related health effects
Air pollution-related
health effects
Water and food-borne
diseases
Vector borne and
rodent borne diseases
Health Effects
Temperature-related
illness and death
Air pollution-related
health effects
Human
exposures
Regional weather
changes
•Heat waves
•Extreme weather
•Temperature
•Precipitation
Regional weather
changes
•Heat waves
•Extreme weather
•Temperature
•
•Sea-level rise
Contamination
pathways
Transmission
dynamics
-
-
-
-
rodent
Microbial changes:
Contamination paths
Transmission dynamics
Water and food-borne
diseases
Vector borne and
borne diseases
Climate
Change
Climate
Change
Changes in agro-
ecosystems, hydrology
Socioeconomic and
demographic disruption
Effects of food and
water shortages
Mental, nutritional,
infectious-disease and
other effects
Health

27. Impacts of Climate Change on the Millennium Development Goals
Goal 1
Eradicate extreme
poverty & Hunger
– Damage to livelihood assets, including homes, water
supply, health, and infrastructure, can undermine
peoples’ ability to earn a living;
– Reduction of crop yields affects food security;
– Social tensions over resource
Goal 2
Achieve universal
primary
education
– Loss of livelihood assets and natural disasters
reduce opportunities for full time education,
– Malnourishment and illness reduces school
attendance
– Displacement and migration can reduce access to
education.
Goal 3
Promote gender
equality and
empower women
– Exacerbation of gender inequality as women depend
more on the natural environment for their livelihoods,
including agricultural production.
– Female headed households with few assets are
particularly affected by climate related disasters.

28. Goal 4
Reduce child mortality
– Deaths and illness due to heat-
waves, floods, droughts and
hurricanes;
– Children and pregnant women
are particularly susceptible to
vector-borne diseases and water-
borne diseases
– Reduction in the quality and
quantity of drinking water
– Natural disasters affect food
security particularly in sub-
Saharan Africa.
Goal 5
Improve Maternal Health
maternal mortality
Goal 6
Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria
and other diseases
– Water stress and warmer
conditions encourage disease;
– Households affected by AIDS
have lower livelihood assets, and
malnutrition accelerates the
negative effects of the disease.
Cont.

29. Goal 7
Ensure environmental
sustainability
– Alterations and possible
irreversible damage in the quality
and productivity of ecosystems
and natural resources;
– Decrease in biodiversity
– Alterations in ecosystem-human
interfaces and interactions
Goal 8
Develop a global
partnership for
development
– Climate change is a global issue
and a global challenge
International relations may be
strained by climate impacts.
Cont.

30. Socio-economic Impact
Assessment Methodologies
Agronomic-Economic Approach
• Agronomic models are used first to predict climate change
impacts on crop yields and the estimated yield changes are
then introduced into economic models to predict output and
price changes.
• Feasible to model CO2 fertilization effects.
• Relatively difficult to include all possible farm level adaptation
options.
Adams et al. (1990, 1999), Rosenzweig and Paryy (1994),
Kumar and Parikh (2001b)

31. Agroecological Zone Approach
Assigns crops to agroecological zones and
estimates potential crop yields. As climate
changes, the extent of agroecological zones
and the potential yields of crops assigned to
those zones changes. These acreage and
yield changes are then included in economic
models to assess socio-economic impacts.
Darwin et al. (1995, 2000), Kumar (1998), IIASA
(2002)

32. Ricardian Approach
• The approach is based on the argument that, ‘by examining
two agricultural areas that are similar in all respects except
that one has a climate on average (say) 3oC warmer than
the other, one would be able to infer the willingness to pay
in agriculture to avoid a 3oC temperature rise’.
• Uses statistical analysis of data across geographic areas to
separate climate from other factors (such as soil quality)
that explain production differences across regions and uses
the estimated statistical relationships to assess impacts of
climate change.
• Main advantage of this method is that it incorporates all
private adaptation measures.

33. ADAPTATIONS & MITIGATIONS

34. Mitigation of global warming
Energy efficiency and conservation
• The energy landscape
• Urban Planning
• Building Design
• Transport
Alternative energy sources
• Nuclear energy
• Renewable energy
• Burning Waste Methane
• Use the fossil fuels that produce the least
greenhouse gases

35. Geoengineering
• Carbon sequestration
• Seeding oceans with iron
• Solar shades
Governmental and Intergovernmental Action
• Kyoto Protocol
• Encouraging use changes
• Carbon emissions trading
• Carbon tax
• Legal action
Non-governmental approaches
• Personal choices
• Societal Controls

36. Kyoto Protocol

37. Adaptation of global warming
• Increasing the coping capacity of communities
• Education, training and public awareness
• Sustainable livelihoods practices
• Cooperative efforts
• Insurance
• Technological intervention
• Research on adaptation.

38. Cost estimates
IPCC TAR (Synthesis Report) suggested values of $78bn to $1141bn
annual mitigation costs, amounting to 0.2% to 3.5% of current world GDP .
Stern Review report
“If we do not act, the overall costs and risks of climate change will be
equivalent to losing a least 5% of global GDP each year now and forever. If
a wider range of risks and impacts is taken into account, the estimate of
damage could rise to 20% of GDP or more. While in contrast the costs of
action – reducing greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the worst impact of
climate change – can be limited to around 1% of global GDP each year”.
Criticism: Methodology
The Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research has reported that, if the
predictions relating to global warming made by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change come to fruition, climate-related factors could
cause India's GDP to decline by up to 9%.

39. Barriers to effective adaptation & mitigation
 Scientific Uncertainties
 Absence of information-base
 Inadequate S & T Inputs for Policy
Formulation
 Lack of trained manpower
 Absence of communication, awareness and
community involvement
 Inadequate co-ordination mechanism
 Inadequate Investments in S&T Capacity in
comparison with Developed countries leading to
high dependence.

40. Thank You