Advertising in the time of a plague - Part 2 (ENG)

“Advertising in the time of plague. Part II. | 100 predictions: what the future holds.
Difficult to see.
Always in motion
is the future.
“
Words spoken by Master Yoda to Luke Skywalker in the ﬁfth episode of “Star Wars”, regarding the anticipation of their friends being in danger.

Intro.
Photo by Joe Kibria on Unsplash
We present our second report. Released during the long
awaited period of restarting the economy and the mysterious
“new normal” - reality different from the one we were used to.
How much will it differ, what will it look like, what will change
and what will remain as we know it?
At the beginning of the pandemic we wanted to show how to
communicate in these new circumstances. Now we will aim
to describe what is ahead of us and how to get ready for it.
We hope that our report, prepared in collaboration with DDB
China and DDB Prague, will help you at least a bit in these
uncertain times.
The DDB Warsaw Team
More info on what we do in the time of the pandemic can be found here:
ddb.pl/antycovid.
Advertising in the times of a plague. Part II. | 100 predictions: what the future holds.

How’s business and economy doing?
1.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
1.
Part one:
Current situation.
Part two:
Getting ready for
the uncertain
times ahead.
How have the past weeks affected us?
Action framework. Update.
100 predictions for the world.
Brands’ response to changes.
Tools to get ready for the new reality.
What’s ahead of us? Scenarios.
Executive summary.
Plan.
Photo by Zoltan Tasi on Unsplash
2.
In collaboration with DDB Prague.
Advertising in the time of plague. Part II. | 100 predictions: what the future holds.
In collaboration with DDB China.

Executive summary.
This is not the end though. Now it’s time to learn how to live with the pandemic.
The number of cases is not dropping, so most likely the virus will stay with us for longer.
We will need to learn how to live in the new circumstances until the pandemic is fully
under control.
Changes will be necessary.
The biggest challenge now is adapting business to the changing reality, securing it for
the uncertain times and pandemic recurrence.
The starting point at work - understanding what’s ahead of us.
It is crucial to consider what is ahead of us. How the world will change and what the New
Normal will look like.
There are two stages of pandemic behind us.
The stage of Shock, caused by its outbreak, and the stage of Adaptation, when we got
used to the new reality.
We are facing a turning point.
The economy is getting back to life and ﬁnancial matters are becoming the main concern
for Poles, who recently have grown more and more accustomed to the pandemic.
Society.
#1.
Politics.
#2
World.
#3
That is why we present 100 predictions for the new times.
We have prepared scenarios for possible changes. These are only a starting point for
developing actions which will adapt business to the new reality. We divided them into
6 categories, focusing on 6 essential operating areas of a company.
Marketing.
#6
Economy.
#4
Business.
#5

The ﬁrst
report.
You can read it here.
Photo: graphicgoogle.com

1.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
1.
Executive summary.
2.
Part one:
The current
situation.

Photo by Adrien Delforge on Unsplash
How have the past
weeks affected us?
1.

When the restrictions were introduced, we moved to a state of in-home
hibernation.
This common feeling is confirmed e.g. by data on changes in terms of work
mode happening over the past couple of months. According to SW Research
around 60% of us were shifted to full or partial home office. We have been
working remotely.
It can be confirmed by the chart presented to the right, prepared based on
Google data from our phones. It shows how much time spent at work has
decreased. Even though the data shown might not be representative for the
whole population, they sure confirm the significance of changes in our lives,
introduced along with the restrictions in Poland.
It is worth mentioning here that every third of us can’t enjoy the “luxury” of
home office and has been working in an unchanged manner.
We're through
two months of
isolation
39%
Remote work
21%
Mixed mode
(sometimes remotely,
sometimes workplace)
7%
Workplace
(even though I could work
remotely)
33%
Workplace
(no choice)
Source:
Research “Poles’ Mood Barometer , part 2” conducted on 15-17.04.2020 by SW RESEARCH on representative sample of Poles
12.04. Easter
11.03. closed schools,
museums, cinemas etc.
14.03. PM announces the state
of epidemiological threat
10-23.02.winter break in
some regions
% change in amount of time spent in the workplace compared to the baseline value
*Baseline values calculated based on 6 weeks data 01-02.2020. Data based on information gathered from phones
allowing Google to collect information about location, might not be representative for the whole population.
Chart: Stanisław Dudzik, source:
Feb Mar Apr
Chart: Stanisław Dudzik, source:
Chart: Stanisław Dudzik, source:Chart: Stanisław Dudzik, source:

Within a few days Covid-19 turned our lives upside down.
A growing number of cases in the country and general fear caused Poles to
follow the guidelines set up to decrease the risk of infection. According to the
research conducted by the Institute of Psychology at the Polish Academy of
Sciences, vast majority of us (80-87% of Poles, depending on the matter)
have confirmed that they follow the recommendations: avoid crowded places,
try to stay at home, maintain social distance and pay more attention to
hygiene.
Even such a symbolic matter as greeting others has undergone a common
transformation: only 6% of respondents declared they hadn’t changed their
behaviour.
What is important, this significant discipline among Poles is confirmed by the
previously mentioned study conducted by SW Research, in which matters
related to safety remain at a comparably high level.
Completely
new lifestyle.
Source:
Research conducted by Institute of Psychology at Polish Academy of Sciences, on 23-24 March 2020; representative sample of Poles.
.
87%
avoid public gatherings
85%
stay at home as much as
possible
85%
keep over 1 meter
distance in relations with
others
81%
greet without shaking
hands
80%
pay more attention to
hygiene out of home

Life revolves around home.
The lockdown obviously has made us focus on activities available at home.
What is interesting, as time is passing by, the way we spend our time has
changed within some of the activities.
When comparing the ﬁrst wave of the SW Research study (beginning of April)
and the third one (beginning of May) we can see that we spend less time with
our families, and more on our interests and hobbies.
How do we
spend this time?
What do you do in your free
time during isolation?
Source:
Research “Poles’ Mood Barometer , part 3” conducted 29.04-4.05.2020 by SW Research; representative sample of Poles
I spend time on my hobbies
I play on the computer/game console
I read press
I learn new things, new skills
I play board games
I remodel my apartment, fix things
I meditate, pray
I go through albums / family memorabilia
I don’t do anything, I’m bored
I surf the Internet
I watch movies / shows
I listen to music
I clean up
I cook
I read books, e-books
I follow the news
I talk with my loved ones via communicators
I spend time with my family, partner, kids
I work out

It’s a difficult
experience for
all of us.
The list of our hardships, although improving slowly, is still very long.
Since the beginning, Poles have been regarding isolation as extremely
difficult. According to the study conducted by SW Research, 85% of us
experience hardships of lockdown, and within the past month the proportion
of those who don’t perceive their current situation as burdensome increased
only slightly.
The same studies show that routine and boredom are most difficult (42%).
On the other hand, the next complaints: limited freedom, reduced contact
with nature and family show a downward trend, which can result from
loosening some of the restrictions. At the same time, dissatisfaction with not
being able to plan our holiday increases.
Very burdensome Not too burdensome Not at all
burdensome
30% 55% 16%
What is most burdensome to you when it comes to staying at home all the time?
To what extent staying home during pandemic is burdensome to you?
Source:
Boredom, each day is the same
My freedom is limited
Limited contact with nature
No face to face contact with my loved ones
I’m forced to cancel holiday plans
I feel unwell because of lockdown
I can’t participate in cultural events
It’s more difficult to do sports
Loneliness
It’s difficult to juggle work/remote school with everyday duties at home
No time, space only for myself
Bad relations with other household members
Bad living conditions
Other

Source:
study conducted by Open Research 31.03-3.04.2020 representative sample of Poles
As much as 65% of Poles experience negative emotions.
Among the emotions most often mentioned by respondents are sadness,
understood as a general feeling of overwhelm and helplessness. Other
emotions are: fear (17%), indifference (27%) and anger (15%).
Interestingly, women seem to be more negative towards the new situation,
more often being worried about their families, health and jobs. Some
differences can also be seen taking into account respondents’ income levels.
The higher the income, the less proportion of negative emotions and higher
indifference.
The morale
is low. How do Poles feel in the current situation of pandemic and quarantaine?
MEN WOMEN
Positive emotions
those who feel good
focus their energy on
taking care of their
family, positive thinking,
appreciate the free time
Neutral emotions
more often presented
by men who don’t want
to be carried away by
emotions and adjust to
the current situation.
Negative emotions
mostly it’s sadness,
respondents feel down,
this emotion can
become stronger if
lockdown continues.

We are worried mainly about health related issues and financial difficulties.
Studies conducted by SW Research show that our top worries are those
related to the consequences of the pandemic: price increase, the fact that we
or someone from our family can get sick, global crisis, inefficiency of the
healthcare system, losing our jobs and income reduction.
Times of
anxiety.
What do you worry about the most in terms of the coronavirus pandemic?
Source:
Price increase
That my loved ones will get infected
Global financial crisis
Healthcare system problems - full hospitals etc.
That I will get infected
Job loss
Decreased income
Riots, strikes
Significant food shortage, empty shelves in stores
No access to medication
Health problems caused by isolation
Paralysis of key institutions and industries
Mental problems, mental breakdown
Losing liquidity of my company
Other
I have no worries related to the pandemic

We are less afraid and cautious. We are getting used to the situation.
After two months of isolation it is apparent that there’s no way to keep the
whole nation fully alert and obedient in terms of sanitary discipline. Having
avoided the “Italian scenario”, we felt more conﬁdent, slowly learning how to
deal with it. Although the number of cases in Poland remains high, we seem
to be less afraid of the virus.
This is also visible when comparing the results of the SW Research study
from the beginnings of April and May. We are less afraid that we will get sick
(42%->32%) or that our relatives will (61%->50%), we are also less worried
about the eﬃciency of the healthcare system (50%->40%).
As a result, our behaviour has also changed. We don’t avoid leaving the house
that much (72%->66%) and we follow the news on the pandemic less often
(53%->40%).
We are not that
afraid anymore. 40%
I follow the news
-13%
66%
I don’t leave the
house unless
necessary
-6%
32%
I’m worried I’ll get
sick
-10%
50%
I’m worried my
relatives will get
sick
-11%
Source:
Interest in time

Some of us have already experienced financial issues, that is why resuming
work is the top priority for Poles.
In a study conducted for mBank, 80% of respondents admitted that the
currents situation poses a big or average threat to their finances. It is a direct
effect of the change in their professional situation, which is visible in the
study conducted by SW Research at the beginning of May. Every fourth
respondent mentions the suspension of extra spendings in their companies
(raises, bonuses), and every fifth indicated introducing obligatory days off and
income reduction. 15% of respondents stated their workplace has been
temporarily closed.
Unfortunately many companies have decided to go with the most drastic
measures. Every tenth respondent declared their company has started laying
people off, 3% mentioned that the salaries are suspended. One in three
respondents said that the crisis caused by the coronavirus has not changed
their situation.
Obviously it affects the household budgets of Poles. According to the GfK
study, in the case of our financial situation getting worse, 68% of us will first
reduce spendings, and 42% will look for an additional job. Only 10% of Poles
don’t expect significant financial problems in the upcoming future.
Let’s talk money.
Source:
study “Poles’ Mood Barometer, part 3” conducted on 29.04-4.05.2020 by SW Research; representative sample of Poles;
study conducted by Maison&Partners for mBank 17-20.04.2020 representative sample of Poles;
study conducted by GfK Polska 20-23.03.2020 representative sample of Poles;
Looking for an additional job / income source
Reducing spendings
Individual strategies of supporting the household budget
Liquidation of investments
Government aid
Selling off durable goods
Borrowing money from
family/friends
Bank loan
Not paying loan instalments
Loan from loan agencies
Not paying rent, bills etc.
Other
I don’t expect problems in the nearest
future
Base: all respondents
Answers don’t sum up to 100%
Max. 3 answers

The Consumer Confidence Barometer, developed by GfK, shows a drastic
drop among Polish consumers, to an unprecedented low level.
After only a few weeks of isolation, the index decreased by 28,7 p.p.
comparing to the previous month, reaching the lowest value (-27,7) in the
history of the tracking conducted by GfK since May 2001.
This result was caused by the decrease of all of its components. The most
severe drop can be seen when it comes to: the evaluation of future household
situation (drop by 40,1 p.p., from 4,2 to -35,9) and anticipated future
economic situation of the country (decrease by 66 p.p., from -4,3 to -70,3).
Given the above, the changes in the evaluation of current household situation
(drop by 8 p.p., from 6,1 to -1,9) and particularly the propensity to buy
(decrease by 0,9 p.p., from -1,9 do -2,8) seem relatively minor. This gives hope
for improving general confidence in the future, once the economy is reopened
and the situation stabilized.
In a nutshell:
low consumer
confidence.
Source:
Consumer confidence study conducted on behalf of the EU by GfK Poland 3-8.04 on representative sample of Poles
Global financial
crisisJoining EU
Pandemic

Conclusion:
We are getting used to the pandemic. With restrictions
being loosened, we are becoming less afraid and less
cautious.
Poles are experiencing the crisis already, the consumer
conﬁdence has reached the lowest level in history.

Photo by Makenna Entrikin on Unsplash
How’s business and
the economy doing?
2.

Economic indexes show that Polish economy hit the brakes.
In April the PMI index which measures the economic activity in the
manufacturing sector fell to 31.9 - a record low since June 1998. The
eurozone PMI equaled 33.6 in the same period.
In terms of PMI the 50-mark separates growth from contraction. Numbers
below the 50th-mark indicate economic downturn. PMI is a measure of the
prevailing direction of economic trends in manufacturing. It works by
compiling data from purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. This
data is used to assess industry conditions and provides an insight into the
possible future economic situation.
The ﬁrst data
regarding the
economy.
Source:
IHS Markit, data for April 2020.

April sentiment in all sectors of the economy was negative.
If we look at the situation of individual sectors, none was on the positive side.
However, a huge disparity can be observed between those who experienced
the slowdown the least - and thus are only slightly pessimistic - and those for
whom April brought a real breakdown.
Negative
sentiment in the
business sector.
Source:
Ignacy Morawski, SpotData.pl based on GUS study, tinyurl.com/spotdatapl
pharmaceutical production
subscription programs
insurance
data and information service activities
scientific research
renting and leasing
telecommunication
manufacture of paper and paper products
finance excl. insurance
IT
production of chemical products
food production
legal and accounting activities
investigation activities
publishing
production of rubber and plastic articles
employment activities
manufacture of computer, electronic, optical products
manufacture of electrical equipment
manufacture of glass products
manufacture of other transport equipment
wholesale trade
manufacture of machinery and equipment
manufacture of metals
human health and social work activities
architectural services
construction
manufacture of metal products
retail trade
manufacture of textiles
refineries
land transport and via pipelines
advertising and market research
production of wood components
audiovisual production
automotive manufacturing
education
production of clothing
production of furniture
culture and entertainment
tourism
General business climate
indicator in April 2020
(source: SpotData, GUS)

April data shows scale of the decline in individual sectors.
The results in March, when sales dropped 9% compared to last year, were
already far from optimistic. Yet, the main reasons for the decline - common
isolation and shopping restrictions - were introduced only in the second part
of the month, together with the state of epidemiological threat being
announced by the government.
The real outcome of the pandemic could be noticed only in April which was
the first “full“ month of the plague in Poland. According to data for April 2020
published by the General Statistical Office (GUS) the retail sales dynamics in
constant prices decreased 22.9% compared to last year.
Comparing the numbers for March and April, one can notice the fear and
preparation effect. Even though in March the “pharmaceutical, cosmetic and
orthopedic” as well as “food, beverages, tobacco” industries grew 8.8% and
2.5% respectively, in April each of them sank ca. 15%. Worth noticing is
certainly the 27.7% increase in retail sales over the Internet as a significant
part of the industry went online.
Thanks to gradual easing of the lockdown, May should bring a slight
recovery.
Everyone’s losing.
Source:
GUS, Retail sales dynamics in April 2020
Retail sales (constant prices)
- the same period year to year = 100
Retail sales in April 2020 by company’s activity type (constant prices)
- the same period year to year = 100
motor
vehicles,
motorcycles
gas, solid and
liquid fuels
food,
beverages,
tobacco
pharmaceutical,
cosmetic,
orthopedic
furniture,
household
appliances
textiles,
clothing,
shoes
press, books,
other sales in
specialized
stores
other
Total 77,1

Things aren’t looking good on the labor market but there’s light at the end of
the tunnel.
According to GUS data for April, which was the ﬁrst entire month when
restrictions obliged, the employment rate in companies fell 2.1% year to year.
That means roughly 150.000 lost jobs. Since the beginning of the epidemic in
Poland it’s been almost 190.000 jobs lost in total.* According to experts from
Pekao Bank the employment drop in April is nearly the same as the one
experienced during the entire ﬁnancial crisis in the years 2008-2009.
There’s also positive news coming from the job market. As noted by experts
of the Polish Economic Institute, entering the stage of restarting the economy
brings about changes in the situation. Their research shows that the
percentage of companies planning on downsizing has declined. At the end of
March it was 28%, while in the middle of May - only 8%. Another optimistic
news is lower inclination of employers towards salary reduction - the
tendency that also decreased in the quoted period. Currently 66% of
employers plan on sustaining the present salary level which means a 30%
better result compared to the end of March.
*It doesn’t mean the number of people who lost their jobs. In its data GUS includes employees sent on leaves too.
Historical rise of
unemployment.
Source:
Research conducted by the Polish Economic Institute and the Polish Development Fund, May 2020, tinyurl.com/PIEpraca;
Gazeta.pl based on data from GUS, May 2020, tinyurl.com/pracaGazeta
Planned changes of headcount. Comparison in time.
Employment decline
in April
Proportion of
companies planning on
further downsizing
Proportion of
companies planning on
sustaining the current
salary level
-2,1% 8% 66%
Micro Small Medium Large
We are not planning
changes
We will increase
the number of
employees
We will limit the
number of
employees
Wave I Wave II Wave III Wave IV
Source: PEI & PDF IV wave (12-14.05.2020); PEI & PDF III wave (28-30.04.2020); PEI & PDF II wave (15-17.04.2020);
PEI & PDF I wave (1-3.04.2020).

Along with further restrictions being eased, the decline in sales level has
slowed down.
As pointed by a study conducted by the Polish Economic Institute, the middle
of May was the time when rising trend in declared income fall was impeded.
While at the end of April it was 67%, in the middle of May it equaled only 49%.
As experts from the Institute suggest, this happened mostly due to the
improved situation of micro- and small enterprises. And that was possible
thanks to gradual restarting of the economy.
Gradual
comeback
of optimism.
Source:
Research conducted by the Polish Economic Institute and the Polish Development Fund, May 2020, tinyurl.com/PIEpraca
Company sales level - comparison in time
Source: PEI & PDF IV wave (12-14.05.2020); PEI & PDF III wave
(28-30.04.2020); PEI & PDF II wave(15-17.04.2020); PEI & PDF I wave
(1-3.04.2020).
Increase No changes Drop

GfK analysts came up with 4 possible scenarios for Polish retail trade based
on their data on Poles’ spending power. Each forecast takes into
consideration assumptions on the duration of potential lockdown and the
amount of time required to reach the pre-pandemic sales level.
Depending on the scenario and region of Poland, retail spending decline
caused by the pandemic can decline from 8.3% to 23.7%. Going back to the
pre-pandemic level might happen at best at the end of 2020, while in the
worst case scenario it could happen even in December 2021.
Scenarios for
the level of
consumption.
Source:
GfK “Purchasing Power”, April 2020, tinyurl.com/GfKraport
Estimated spending
decline in the
upcoming months
#1
(most optimistic)
#2
#3
#4
(most pessimistic)
Scenario
Lockdown
duration
(months)
Going back to
pre-pandemic sales
level
8,3-14,2%
10,7-17,7%
11,7-19,3%
14,4-23,7%
2
2
2
2 + 2
second wave in Fall
XII 2020
V 2021
XII 2021
XII 2021

The pandemic is
here to stay.
Source:
Wyborcza.pl, “UJ Scientists: The number of infected with COVID-19 without symptoms is higher than previously believed”,
tinyurl.com/WyborczaKrakow1na50
CNN.com; “11 new asymptomatic cases reported in China come from Wuhan”, tinyurl.com/WuhanCNN11m;
Polityka.pl, “Polowirus. What does the Polish Covid-19 simulation tell us?”, tinyurl.com/modelePolityka
We need to be prepared that the pandemic won't end soon.
Study conducted by scientists from Jagiellonian University Medical College
and from the Małopolska Center of Biotechnology in collaboration with
Diagnostyka show that currently in Cracow 1 in 50 people has developed
coronavirus antibodies. It means the virus is already spread across our
society.
The Chinese example provides evidence, that even though the pandemic has
been contracted many weeks ago, new outbreaks of infection might still
occur. In the middle of May, Wuhan authorities announced they would test all
11 million residents of the city.
It proves that COVID-19 will stay with us for longer. According to Polish
forecasting models the recovery will assume a pulsating dynamic, which
means periods of relief will be intermittent with restrictions introduced e.g.
on local level where outbreaks occur. The whole situation will probably last
until a vaccine or cure has been found.

Conclusions:
In recent months all industries suffered ﬁnancially and the
situation of employees exacerbated along with that of companies.
Restarting the economy brought optimism to the private sector.
However, economic data suggest a crisis is on its way.
The number of infections is not falling. We will be functioning
in the pandemic reality and we will learn to cope with it.

1.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
1.
Executive summary.
2.
Part two:
Getting ready for the
uncertain times ahead.

3.
Action framework.
Update.
Photo by Alex Motoc on Unsplash

Two stages of the pandemic, which we described in the ﬁrst report, are already behind us. The Shock Stage (caused by its outbreak) and Adaptation Stage
(long isolation). Currently, with the loosening restrictions and the economy slowly reopening, it’s time to face the question: what happens now?
Originally, we optimistically anticipated, that based on the effectiveness of China's efforts in ﬁghting the virus, and the fact that restrictions were introduced in
Poland so quickly, we would combat Coronavirus in no time. We were expecting the Rebirth stage to start at the beginning of May - celebrating the quick win
over COVID-19 and our regained freedom. However, the prolonged pandemic and restrictions, along with the large scale of economic damage forced us to
revise our assumptions. The third phase will look differently from what we originally anticipated.
Unfortunately, the virus and the new reality we found ourselves in will stay with us longer, and we will have to learn how to deal with it. As a consequence,
there won’t be a clear rebound period, but a gradual recovery from the crisis, with possible new waves, until the pandemic is fully under control.
Photo by Claudio Schwarz on Unsplash

Action framework #2.
Pandemic.
What to change in the business to be
essential in the new reality?
How to launch new services /
products during a quarantine?
How to conduct stable business in unstable
times of the pandemic? Keeping the
operational potential, which will allow to
resume work in the New World. Adjusting
and making the business more flexible in
case of the recurrence of pandemic growth.
Is our offer still relevant given the changes
caused by the crisis?
Early stages of the pandemic. People are
adapting to the new situation.
Short (possibly III-V 2020) Long (V 2020 up to 1 year - 2 years) Very long (possibly 1 year - 2 years+)
Time
horizon
Stage
Challenges
Quick response to changes and people’s
new needs. Help and involvement.
Getting closer to consumers; solidarity;
efficient operation; abandoning the role
of a brand/salesperson; communication
presence if possible.
Revising the strategy and action model.
Adjusting business to new rules and needs,
securing it in case of pandemic growth
recurrence, re-building traffic in stores,
undertaking actions to activate business.
Implementation of action strategies based
on new needs, business reconstruction.
Keeping track of changes in the market and
consumer behavior, changing the offer and
functioning of business, which leads to its
reconstruction.
Activities
Reducing potential damage to the
brand and building closeness.
Getting through the pandemic in the best
condition possible.
Become a leader in the new reality.Goal
stage II: Adaptationstage I: Shock stage III: Living with the pandemic stage IV: A new world
Building brand image and potential
sales during lockdown.
A sudden change in the reality of
business; new restrictions for
people.
How to act in this dynamic situation?
The pandemic is underway. People are
getting used to the new circumstances.
Adapting the business to the new
reality.
Changing the offer to make life easier in
the reality of the pandemic; following the
market situation; planning next steps;
carefully building the brand image.
* The proposed division is merely a theoretical model, which will not apply
to all brands and categories at all times. Consider alternative versions,
depending on the character of your industry.
reopening of the economy
A gradual release of economic and social life, excluding
some areas. Possible recurrence of pandemic growth and
restrictions.
After the immunization of society and / or vaccination,
gradual stabilization of the situation and a return to normality,
which may be different from that previously known.

Photo by Jeffrey Grospe on Unsplash
What’s ahead of us?
Scenarios.
4.

Countries will get over the pandemic at different points and their economies
will recover at a different pace. Both because of the course of the pandemic,
as well as the size of the economic crisis exacted by it.
According to EU preliminary data, the eurozone GDP in the ﬁrst quarter fell by
3.3% compared to the ﬁrst quarter of 2019, and in the entire EU - by 2,7%.
These are the biggest drops since the peak of the economic crisis in 2009.
The European Commission predicts that GDP of the entire EU will decrease
by 7,4% this year, while some countries will be hit stronger: Italy -9,7%, Spain
-9,4%, France -8,2%, Germany -6,5%. Poland, according to the EC, will perform
best in EU. More on this topic can be found on the next slide.
The impact will be
spread over time.
Source:
Gazeta.pl, “Poland a pink island on the red map of recession”, tinyurl.com/zagranicznePredykcje

Current year underwater. Looking towards 2021 with hope.
Polish GDP in 2020 Q1 exceeded prior forecasts with 1.9% growth year to
year. However, for the next quarters and the entire year recession is forecast.
As for now the government estimates a drop in GDP by 3.4% in 2020.
Less optimistic forecasts were laid down by non-government organizations,
i.e. Polish Economic Institute: -4% in the best case scenario, International
Monetary Fund: -4.6% in 2020 and +4.2% in 2021 as well as European
Commission: -4.3% and +4.1% respectively.
Polish Economic Institute has prepared a worst case scenario too, which
assumes a second, stronger wave of the pandemic in the Fall. In this case
GDP could drop even by 7.5%.
It’s worth mentioning, however, that all estimates are highly speculative at
this point and these forecasts may become obsolete once the
epidemiological, economic or ﬁnancial situation of Poles changes.
Forecast for
Poland.
Source:
Business Insider, “Biggest drop of economy in 22 years. GDP data surprised the economists”, tinyurl.com/predykcjeQ1;
Polish Economical Institute, Macroeconomic Monthly, April 2020, tinyurl.com/scenariuszePIE;
Gazeta.pl, “Poland - a pink island on a red map of recession”, tinyurl.com/zagranicznePredykcje
Economic growth in Poland in the years 2008-2019 and 2020
(different scenarios, in %)
Pre-pandemic scenario
First scenario
Second scenario
Source: Polish Economical Institute’s calculation

Scenarios
for recovery.
McKinsey & Company economists presented nine possible scenarios for
economies in their “COVID-19: Implications for business” publication.
The path that a given country will go depends on two variables: the way the
virus will be spreading and the public-health response as well as the inﬂuence
of the virus on the economy and actions taken by the authorities.
It is hard to predict clearly which way Poland will go. It depends on too many
factors. However, we encourage you to analyse possible scenarios and
assess which path we are currently on.
Source:
McKinsey Global Institute, “COVID-19: Implications for business”, May 2020, tinyurl.com/McKinseyScenariusze

Conclusion:
Different countries will recover at a different pace and their
economies will experience hardships to a varied degree.
According to European Comission’s forecasts, Poland will
cope with the crisis relatively well suffering the smallest
GDP loss in EU in 2020.

5.
100 predictions for
the world.
Photo by Manuel on Unsplash
In collaboration
with DDB China.

100 predictions
for the world.
Photo by Mathilda Khoo on Unsplash
We present possible scenarios for the future. They aim to show a spectrum
of probable changes - which can occur in the near future or which are
already happening.
Unfortunately, we don’t have a crystal ball so we are not able to define exactly
what’s ahead of us. The proposed predictions can, but definitely don’t have to
come to fruition. Whether they do depends on many factors, and only time
will tell the way the world is going to turn out.
However, the analysis of these predictions and evaluation of their probability
can be a valuable starting point for planning next steps and adjusting to the
changing world.
We believe that analysing the possible changes, their update, calibration to a
specific category and probability assessment according to the most recent
knowledge can help to overcome the crisis in a more effective way.

➔ We divided our predictions into six categories: society, politics, world, economy, business, marketing.
➔ The publication includes not only “big” predictions, but also trends, countertrends, as well as new needs and changes of consumer behaviour.
➔ Some changes are already happening, other can occur in the future.
➔ Suggested predictions might be contradicting, complementary and also derive from one another. One or many can occur at the same time and they can also be contradicting (i.e. in
particular consumer categories or market categories).
➔ We encourage you to analyse and assess their probability.
Society
#1.
Predictions 01-47
Marketing
#6
Predictions 95-102
Politics
#2
Predictions 48-54
World
#3
Predictions 55-65
Economy
#4
Predictions 66-77
Business
#5
Predictions 78-94

Collaboration
with DDB China.
Reklama w czasach zarazy. Część II. | 100 predykcji, czyli co przyniesie przyszłość.
Photo by 丁亦然 on Unsplash
China is ahead of us in terms of the pandemic stage and ﬁghting its impact.
Even though the market conditions are different than in Europe, their
experience can be of great value to us. That is why we asked our colleagues
from DDB China to evaluate our hypothesis.
The predictions considered by the DDB China team as most probable are
highlighted on each of the following slides.

Society.
#1...
Predictions 01-47.
Photo by Grégoire Hervé-Bazin on Unsplash

Antibacterial gels and liquids will
stay with us for long, masks will
become an indispensable part of
our daily outﬁts.
Widespread concern about the
future on many levels, including
ﬁnances, health and stability of
the state.
02.
Avoiding others for fear of
infection.
Increased
distrust and
aversion to other
people.
Society.
#1...
Safety.
01.
Maintaining the habit of social
distancing. A new way of
functioning in public spaces.
Desocialization.
04.
Widespread use
of anti-virus
protection.
03.
Increased sense
of threat and
uncertainty.

Society.
#1...
Safety.
Increased awareness of the
negative human impact.
06.
Both at the level of intensiﬁed
personal care, as well as support
for systemic solutions.
Increased
importance of
healthcare.*
05.
Home = sanctuary and shelter.
“Sterile” space, where we don’t let
others in.
Homecentric.
07.
Greater concern
for our planet.*
Indicated by DDB China*

Society.
#1...
Social mobility.
Which are usually crowded and
make us more exposed to
infection.
Migration of city residents to the
countryside to ﬁnd freedom (own
space), safety (lower density) and
cheaper accommodation.
Short-term - migration of those who
lost their jobs. Long-term - migration
of townspeople.
09.
Seeking work and safety.
Migration to
countries less
affected by the
virus.
08.
Reduction of international travel,
holiday plans associated with it
(now only domestic) and business
trips.
Lower social
mobility.*
11.
Avoiding public
means of
transport.
10.
De-urbanisation.

Negative attitude towards those
who show off their ﬁnancial
status.
Particular groups getting rich
quickly, especially those for whom
the pandemic has been a golden
time for business.
13.
Increased poverty level and
decreased aﬄuence of the middle
class, wealthy people getting
richer.
Increase in
social inequality.
Society.
#1...
Economic situation.
12.
With extra emphasis on
ex-workers of those categories
which are hit strongest by the
pandemic crisis.
Long-term high
unemployment.
15.
Dislike of the
wealthy.
14.
“New
millionaires.”

Society.
#1...
Economic situation.
Lower consumption level,
increased need for saving.
Reducing expenses to bare
minimum.
17
It will be more diﬃcult for the
younger generation to enter the
labor market and become
independent.
Lost generation.
16.
Crash of the real estate market - it
will be more diﬃcult to get a bank
loan, buy for cash etc.
Owning your
apartment is a
luxury.
19.
Anti-consumerism.
18.
Cutting down on
extra spendings.

Increase in social exclusion of
those without internet access and
seniors.
22.
Stronger digital
divide.
Society.
#1...
Economic situation.
The need to reduce expenses and
tighter budgets will prolong the
life cycle of products we already
own.
Offers which allow savings or at
least seem as such will gain in
signiﬁcance.
21.
Less
waste.
20.
Promotions and
special offers
count.

Using quarantine to learn new
skills, often related to changing
career path resulting from job
loss.
Popularization of solutions
enabling remote gatherings.
As a safe alternative to going out.
Consequence of shutting down or
limiting the functioning of clubs
and pubs.
24.
Fewer meetings with others,
missing our loved ones.
Too few social
contacts.
Society.
#1...
Free time.
23.
More free time, room for hobbies.
Too much time.
27.
Time for
self-development.
26.
Video contact
> face to face
contact.*
25.
The renaissance
of house parties.

Safer solution as an alternative to
regular sport events.
Solutions ﬁlling the gap after
cancelled concerts, theater plays,
screenings, visits to the museum.
29.
Change in ways of spending time -
more “couch” solutions.
Increased
demand for
digital
entertainment.
Society.
#1...
Free time.
28.
Higher popularity of solutions
allowing for individual trainings
(cycling, jogging accessories), at
home workout (mats, lifting
weights etc.) as a substitute for
gym and group sport activities.
Individual
work out.
31.
Increase of
e-sports.*
30.
New online
events.*

Maintaining mutual help and
support, so common in the time
of the pandemic.
Appreciating regained freedom
and need to enjoy life again,
including treating ourselves with
small “rewards” to compensate
the diﬃcult times of the
pandemic.
Avoiding restrictions, common
longing for freedom and normal
life.
33.
Cumulation of negative news and
events, being tired with the topic.
Feeling
overwhelmed.
Society.
#1...
Dealing with the pandemic.
32.
“Being bored” with the topic;
decreased level of fear and
caution.
Getting used to
the pandemic.
36.
Increased unity
and solidarity.
35.
Need for blowing
off steam.*
34.
Seeking
normality.

As a reaction to misunderstanding
of the situation and feeling
helpless.
38.
Appreciation of healthcare
professionals and experts who
helped us overcome the
pandemic.
Increasing role
of experts and
authority ﬁgures.
Society.
#1...
Dealing with the pandemic.
37.
An effect of long-term isolation
and higher than usual amount of
time spent together.
Higher rate of
divorces and
breakups.
39.
Conspiracy
theories gaining
popularity.

Effect of long-term isolation,
particularly affecting seniors.
Among others: rise of anxiety,
more cases of depression or
insomnia.
41.
As a result of the lockdown, the
monotony of life, reduced social
interactions.
Apathy.
Society.
#1...
Health.
40.
Lockdown, closed sport centers,
fewer activities will negatively
affect our ﬁtness form.
Time of being in
bad shape.
43.
Common
solitude.
42.
More mental
problems.

Effect of long-term isolation.
Maternity leave as a “good way” to
wait out the turbulence on the
labor market.
Result of the pandemic - fear for
the future and safety.
45.
Long-term increase of caution and
attention to health, particularly of
our loved ones.
Paying more
attention to
health.*
Society.
#1...
Health.
44.
Putting diagnostics on hold will
cause a spike in diagnosis and
diseases in the nearest future.
Coronavirus is
not the only
disease.
47.
Higher birth rate.
46.
Decline in birth
rate.

Politics.
#2...
Predictions 48-54.
Photo by Hello I'm Nik on Unsplash

Stronger control over the society
justified by higher good.
Social consent to limit democratic
control mechanisms for the sake
of more efficient pandemic fight.
49.
Lower trust in politicians and
institutions as an effect of poor
preparation for the pandemic and
limited freedom.
Distrust of the
state.
Politics.
#2...
48.
Their position might become
stronger in countries which
efficiently overcome the
pandemic. Those who fail will be
removed from power.
A test for
politicians.
51
Increase in
citizen tracking
solutions.
50.
Accepting
authoritarianism.

More aid from the state: minimal
wages, universal health coverage,
additional benefits.
53.
Foreign equals danger.
Intensification of
nationalistic
attitudes
Politics.
#2...
52.
As a solution to potential future
crisis such as the pandemic.
More powerful
state.
54.
Intensification of
left-wing
doctrines.

Photo by Clément Falize on Unsplash
World.
#3...
Predictions 55-65.

Long-term EU border restoration.
Detailed monitoring of people
entering the territory of each
country.
Intensiﬁcation of anti-EU attitudes
among citizens of the European
community.
56.
Stronger cooperation between
countries in order to better cope
with economic crisis and
consequences of the pandemic.
United countries.
World.
#3...
55.
Gulf between nations, declined
cooperation levels (e.g. within
EU).
National egoism.
58.
Restored
borders.
57.
Anti-EU.

Changes in the model of
international cooperation, moving
towards business and economic
independence.
60.
Stronger position of China as the
leader of world economy.
New balance of
power.
World.
#3...
59.
Focus on location, decrease in
international trade and
international cooperation.
Deglobalisation.
61.
Ostracism of
China.

Outbreak of economic warfare
and even military conﬂicts.
Threat for those affected most by
the pandemic and economically
vulnerable.
63.
Economic destabilization of
countries.
Prolonged
economic crisis.*
World.
#3...
62.
Increase in economic inequalities
between countries.
Two-speed
countries.
65.
Escalation of
tensions between
countries.
64.
Bankruptcy of
countries.

Photo by Junior Skumbag on Unsplash
Economy.
#4...
Predictions 66-77.

Shutting down companies unable
to do business for a longer period
of time and reopening them
post-crisis (e.g. travel agencies,
airlines, HoReCa).
Reducing spendings to absolute
minimum.
67.
Attempts to ﬁll budget gaps by
taxing big companies and aﬄuent
segments of the society.
Increase of
taxes.
Economy.
#4...
66.
Reduction of expenditure on
infrastructure and
development-oriented
investments.
Decline in
investment.*
69.
Reset of the
most affected
industries.
68.
Prolonged drop
in consumption.

Resulting from the need for safety
and reducing spendings (e.g.
scooter instead of public
transport).
Loss of conﬁdence in the idea of
sharing and co-using objects as
possible sources of infection.
71.
Response to lower purchasing
power of consumers.
Price decrease
of products and
services.
Economy.
#4...
70.
The desire to make up for losses
and new costs results in
increased spendings on anti-covid
protection and safety measures.
Price increase of
products and
services.
73.
Increase in
sharing
economy.
72.
Decline of
sharing
economy.

Struggle for survival.
Human needs in the center of
attention, less focus on proﬁt.
75.
Supporting local and domestic
business as an element of
assisting national economy.
Expansion of
economic
patriotism.*
Economy.
#4...
74.
As a result of tighter budgets.
Recession in
demand for
luxury goods.
77.
The comeback of
wild capitalism
from the 90s.
76.
More humanistic
economy.

Business.
#5...
Predictions 78-94.
Photo by Nick Bolton on Unsplash

Transfering production in order to
become independent of foreign
suppliers, development of local
businesses.
79.
As the most vulnerable to the
course of the pandemic in
different countries.
Drop in
international
trade.*
Operational.
78.
As a response to vulnerabilities
caused by restrictions in different
countries.
Stabilising and
securing supply
chains.
80.
Delocation of
production.
#5...
Business
In order to both reduce costs now
as well as to rebuild businesses in
the future.
81.
Increased
importance of
outsourcing.

New brands entering, e.g. 4F
sewing facemasks.
83.
Business
Restrictions will limit business
activities until the pandemic has
been overcome.
Long-term
decline in scale
of business
activity.
Operational.
82.
In case of new outbreaks,
restrictions in private sector
possible again.
Shutdown
/ activity
reduction.
84.
Growth of particular
categories and
emergence of new
ones.
#5...

Emergence of solutions that
reduce human contact and lower
expenditures in various areas of
the private sector.
Progress necessary to survive.
Introducing solutions that proved
successful in other industries.
Maintaining high sanitary
requirements for a long time, also
after the pandemic is over.
86.
Due to remote work and lower
headcount.
Lower demand
for oﬃce space.
Business
#5...
New way of functioning.
85.
Remote work, which has proven to
be successful during the
pandemic, has now become more
universal (long-term source of
savings for companies).
Home
oﬃce.
89.
Digitalization
speeding up.
88.
Pressure of
innovation.
87.
Sterility of the
workplace /
POS.*

Private sector growing
independent of “human
unreliability”. Rise in significance
of AI and automation.
Reduced number of offline stores
which became unprofitable as a
way of cutting costs and looking
for savings.
The process of switching from
offline to online will accelerate.
91.
Reduced significance of POS in
sales.
Decrease in
offline activity.
Business
#5...
New way of functioning.
90.
Growing need for services and
products that one can access
remotely, reducing contact with
others.
Everything
-delivery.
94.
Decreased
significance of
human factor.
93.
Fewer POS.
92.
Long-term
growth of
e-commerce.

Marketing.
#6...
Predictions 95-102.
Photo by Adrian Swancar on Unsplash

Thanks to higher ﬂexibility and
lower costs compared to TV.
96.
Particular industries which
experienced the crisis the hardest,
are withdrawing from media
communication.
Fewer TV
commercials,
higher
viewership.
Marketing
#6...
95.
Lack of permanent, long-term
plans. Need for ﬂexible acting in
response to the epidemiological
situation.
Real time
planning.
98.
All-out decrease
of OOH and
press.
97.
Growing role of
digital / social
/ mobile.*

Reducing costs which are not
crucial for functioning of
a company, e.g. CSR, sponsoring.
Response to consumer
expectations in terms of offering
aid. Acknowledging brands that
got involved in social matters
during the pandemic.
100.
Allowing for building relations
with brands without the risk of
contact with other people.
Non-contact
brand
experience.
Marketing
#6...
99.
Taking care of employees as a
vital part of company’s activities
affecting how consumers
perceive the brand.
Growing
signiﬁcance
of employer
branding.
102.
Cutting
unnecessary
costs.
101.
Growing
signiﬁcance
of CSR.

Photo by André Reis on Unsplash
6.
Brands’ response
to changes.

Brands’ efforts aimed at adjusting to the new reality and challenges posed
by the pandemic can already be observed.
This chapter brings together examples of brand activities that sure outreach
communication itself. They are designed to adapt companies to new
circumstances, the “New world”.
It often means changing the way companies operate. Actions taken by them
are oftentimes borrowed from other categories where they had previously
proven successful. In numerous cases brands are somewhat forced to
innovate, which in a longer term might alter or improve their business,
bringing in freshness and modernization
What has changed or will change?
Prediction, change, new need or trend, which might
inﬂuence directly or indirectly the brand’s business.
What is the outlook for the brand?
What does it mean for the enterprise? What challenges
and opportunities lie ahead?
What solution has been introduced?
What type of actions were taken in order to address
changes to come.
Pandemic as
a catalyst for
innovation.
Case studies scheme

Ikea
Poland.
Change:
Desocialization. Avoiding others.
Outlook for the brand (challenges & opportunities):
Possible sales drop in oﬄine stores.
Solution:
Ikea parcel lockers.
Making it possible to collect orders without visiting stores.
IKEA customers in Warsaw will collect their
orders from parcel lockers.

Allegro.
Change:
Increase in e-commerce.
Opportunity to change long-term shopping habits.
Solution:
Allegro Smart.
Making the Allegro marketplace even more competitive by
extending free delivery period for 3 months since the beginning
of the pandemic.
Allegro Smart free delivery extended.

Mastercard.
Change:
Long-term decline in the scale of business
activities.
A B2B brand helps itself by helping its partners.
Solution:
Aid package for clients.
Numerous relief solutions for partners aimed at helping them to
survive in the market.
Mastercard offering a helping hand
to business owners.

Biedronka.
Change:
Everything-delivery.
Need to adjust to the delivery trend in the category.
Solution:
Online deliveries in Glovo app.
A pilot version of an e-commerce solution in cooperation
with a partner - supplier.
Biedronka teams up with Glovo to enable
mobile shopping, even on Sundays.

Empik.
Change:
Digitalization speeding up.
Increased need for digital entertainment.
Opportunity for an effective launch of a new
product.
Solution:
Empik Music.
New streaming platform tailored for Polish users.
Empik is introducing a new streaming platform
to the market.

Porsche.
Change:
Increased distrust and aversion to other people.
Decrease in dealership visits and in-person
interactions with the brand.
Solution:
Porsche’s virtual services.
Enabling services that are typical for car dealerships, but providing them
online, i.e. virtual car presentations or e-meeting with a consultant.
Experience Porsche in its purest form.
Porsche’s virtual services.

Polish Airlines
LOT.
Change:
Lower social mobility.
Suspended services.
No passenger flights.
Solution:
Partial shift in business type.
Adjusting consumer planes to ones fit for cargo operations.
LOT is removing passenger seats from
their Dreamliner planes. Switching to
cargo flights is helping make up for
losses during the pandemic.

VOX Furniture.
Change:
Contactless brand experience.
Decline in oﬄine traﬃc.
Risk of drop in sales
(especially in the case of people who do not use e-commerce to buy
furniture).
Solution:
Virtual furniture showroom
Representing a real point of sales and allowing customers to get familiar
with the brand’s offer.
Interior design, shopping, consulting advisors - with Vox’s
virtual showroom you can decorate your dream home.

Zdroﬁt gym
centers.
Change:
Individual sports.
Suspended services.
Risk of losing clients who will terminate their contracts.
Solution:
Online workout platform.
An inhome substitute for gym.
Online workout platform.
We created
the biggest online workout platform
in Poland.

Orlen.
Change:
Desocialization. Avoiding other people. Digitalization
speeding up.
Opportunity for an effective launch of a new product.
Solution:
Orlen Pay.
An app allowing to pay without entering the store.
In-app online payments at Orlen Petrol
Stations, not only for gas. You don’t even
have to go inside.

Wisła Kraków.
Change:
Lock down.
The risk of decline in anticipated income.
Solution:
Club shares issue.
Wisła Kraków engages their fans offering for the second time the
opportunity to support the club by purchasing shares.
Wisła Kraków issues shares for fans to
purchase.

mBank.
Change:
Desocialization. Avoiding other people.
Opportunity to recruit sensitive clients.
Solution:
Online handling of mortgage.
mBank introduced a possibility to use an advanced bank product with
minimal contact with a bank advisor.
mBank offers an online mortgage.

7.
Tools to get ready
for the new reality.
Photo by Serhat Beyazkaya on Unsplash
In collaboration
with DDB Prague.

How to work on
solutions?
Exploration.
step 1.
Framing.
step 2.
Generating ideas.
step 3.
Implementation.
step 4.
Indicating problems and changes that
the brand is facing in the time of the
pandemic.
Deﬁning what the changes mean for the
brand, the challenges that need to be
considered.
Coming up with solutions and actions
which will help the brand address its
problems.
Putting new ideas in place.

Toolbox.
Predictions, even the most spot on, are only the
beginning.
They are only a starting point to deﬁning possible
actions which will adjust business to the new reality.
That is why we present a workshop tool, created by our
colleagues from DDB Prague, which will help you in
generating solutions to get through the uncertain times
ahead of us.
The following slides show three selected workshop
boards, which will help you step by step to work out
actions for your brands.
Full publication by DDB Prague is available here.

Exploration.
step 1...
1
2 Prioritization.
Allocate your predictions on the canva,
depending on their importance, on the
probability and signiﬁcance axes.
Generating predictions.
Which changes can have impact on your
brand? Social, political, global, economic,
business, communication changes. Write
down as many as you can.
Selecting key changes affecting
your brand.

Framing.
step 2...
1
2 Turning it into a challenge.
Define the challenge precisely. It will
allow you to find a more effective
solution.
Defining the problem that the brand
is facing.
How is the change affecting your brand?
What does it mean for the brand?
Transforming problems into
clear challenges.

Generating
ideas.
step 3...
1
2 Choose the best.
Evaluate your ideas by dividing them into
four categories taking into account their
potential impact and required effort.
Brainstorm.
Based on the challenges, generate ideas
which address them. As many as
possible.
Looking for solutions which
have the biggest potential.

Online workshop
space.
To compliment the proposed workshop canvases, we recommend a web
application called Mural, a tool to conduct fully functional online workshops.
It will help you to work out together - though apart - the best solutions for
your brands. We also strongly recommend reading the complete presentation
created by our colleagues from Prague - it contains more tools which will
allow you to conduct your own workshop. You can ﬁnd it here.
www.mural.co

Stay safe and
good luck!
Photo by engin akyurt on Unsplash
More info on what we do during the pandemic: ddb.pl/antycovid
Any questions? Contact us:
marcin.trzepla@ddb.pl / jakub.eichelberger@ddb.pl

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