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Supported by AFRI Competitive Grant no. 2010-85122-20623 from USDA-NIFA




       Economics of Heat Stress:
     Implications for Management

                         Albert De Vries

                 Department of Animal Sciences
                     University of Florida
                   Gainesville, Florida, USA
                       devries@ufl.edu




                       DAIReXNET Webinar, April 9, 2012
Topics
• Cost of heat stress, value of cooling
• Improved fertility in summer
• Sexed semen mix
Dairy heat stress losses in USA
                St-Pierre et al. (2003)

•   Feed intake 
•   Milk production 
•   Reproduction 
•   Repro culling 
•   Death 
                 Average losses due to heat stress
                 • Without any heat abatement:
                   $167 per cow per year
                 • With optimal heat abatement system:
                   $100 per cow per year
Annual production and economic losses in
    6 states (minimum heat abatement)
                                                        Annual
       Dry matter                       Repro
                      Milk      Days            Deaths hours of      Loss
State   intake                        culling 
                   (lbs/cow/yr) open             (%) heat stress ($/cow/yr)
      (lbs/cow/yr)                        (%)
                                                          (%)

WI       201          403        9       0.6      0.1        9         72
CA       320          646        12      0.9      0.2       12         110
NM       370          745        23      2.2      0.5       20         168
AZ       798         1609        26      2.5      0.5       22         256
FL       1971        3975        59      8.0      1.7       49         676
TX       2196        4425        54      7.4      1.6       36         698



                                                  After St-Pierre et al. (2003)
Florida seasonal pregnancy rates 1976-2002


                          winter



            summer




                             De Vries and Risco, 2005
Florida Observation
• Many seasonal breeding herds
   – Calve in fall, breed in winter, dry in summer


• Preferably no calving in late spring/summer
   – Heat stress during calving
   – Death risk  (cows, calves)
   – Milk production , fertility 


• Getting cows pregnant in summer:
   late spring / summer calving

• How important is it to get cows pregnant in summer?
Can we improve profitability
  by improved fertility and
better insemination decisions?

      A story of calving patterns
Systems approach
• Large spreadsheet(+) with heifers and cows, lactation
  curves, fertility, feed intakes, labor, prices, etc.
• Decisions: replacement, insemination, calf raising
• Closed herd: sell surplus heifer calves + all bull calves
• Optimize profit per (milking) slot per year
• Heat stress effects on milk production, fertility, death
  risk



• This is difficult 
Relative humidity, temperature and
   temperature humidity index
        for Orlando, Florida

    max H

    max F

    THI
    min H
    min F
Seasonal herd
constraint: 1300 total cows



                              cows calved
                              heifer calves born
                              heifer calves kept
                              heifers calved
Seasonal herd
        constraint: 1300 total cows
                              Cows present


            Milk      Cows milking



Open cows
• Increase probability of conception by 10%

• For example: 40% + 0.1 * 40% = 44%
+10% Probability of conception
                   constraint: 1300 total cows
                                 Normal   +10% Prob. conception
Profit/slot/year                  $728            $767

                                              +$39/slot/year
                       heifers




                        cows
Inseminations
+10% probability of conception
 constraint: 1300 total cows




               cows




               heifers
Delayed inseminations
 +10% probability of conception
  constraint: 1300 total cows

    heifers
              cows
Calvings
+10% probability of conception
 constraint: 1300 total cows


                 cows




                 heifers
1000 milking cows constraint
Seasonal herd
      constraint: 1000 milking cows

                           Cows present

            Milk     Cows milking



Open cows
Inseminations
                +10% probability of conception
                constraint: 1000 milking cows
                                 Normal   +10% Prob. conception
Profit/milking slot/year           $587           $647

                                              +$60/slot/year

                            cows




                       heifers
Present and milking
+10% probability of conception
constraint: 1000 milking cows


     present




  milking
Delayed inseminations
   +10% probability of conception
   constraint: 1000 milking cows

       heifers




cows                 cows
Calvings
+10% probability of conception
constraint: 1000 milking cows

                        cows




                  heifers
Sexed, fresh IVF embryo transfer in
summer increases conception rates

• Summer transfer of sexed in-vitro fertilized embryos
• 200% of conventional AI summer conception rate
• 88% heifer calves
                                     Stewart et al. (2011)

•   Economics?
•   $90 per IVF-ET transfer
•   $250 sold heifer calf, $50 sold bull calf
•   Change in calving pattern
IVF-ET in summer: scenario A
conception rates and #inseminations, IVF-ET
                          All summer “breedings” with IVF-ET
                          No delayed inseminations
                          All calves sold, heifers purchased
                          1300 total cows constraint




   conception rate




    inseminations/ET
IVF-ET in summer: scenario A
        Cows calved and milking
                        All summer “breedings” with IVF-ET
                        No delayed inseminations
                        All calves sold, heifers purchased
                        1300 total cows constraint

                        Value of IVF-ET:
                        -$4 /milking slot/year
  milking
                        Normal: $779, IVF-ET: $775




  calved
IVF-ET in summer: scenario B
conception rates and #inseminations, #IVF-ET
                          Optimal summer “breedings”
                          Allow delayed inseminations
                          1000 milking cows constraint




   conception rate




 inseminations/ET
IVF-ET in summer: scenario B
          Cows calved and milking
                          Optimal summer “breedings”
                          Allow delayed inseminations
                          1000 milking cows constraint

                          Value of IVF-ET:
                          $88 /milking slot/year
milking                   Normal: $569, IVF-ET: $657




 calved
Conventional, sexed semen,
         and summer heat stress
• $20 conventional dairy semen
  – Normal fertility
  – 48% heifer calves
  – Extra heifers calves sold for $250, bull calves $50

• $35 female sexed semen
  – 80% of normal fertility
  – 88% heifer calves
  – Extra heifer calves sold for $250, bull calves $50


• What is the optimal mix?
Conventional and sexed semen mix
              constraint: 1000 milking cows




                conv. cows


               sexed heifers




Profit conventional only: $587 / milking slot / year
Profit sexed + conventional: $624 / milking slot / year (+$37)
Summary
• Cooling dairy cows pays in hot climates
• Value of improving fertility in summer depends on
  seasonality of cow performance (milk, fertility) and
  herd constraints (parlor capacity, cash flow)
• Seasonality has major implications for optimal
  insemination mix




                                            Thank you
                                            devries@ufl.edu

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The Economics of Heat Stress- Albert DeVries

  • 1. Supported by AFRI Competitive Grant no. 2010-85122-20623 from USDA-NIFA Economics of Heat Stress: Implications for Management Albert De Vries Department of Animal Sciences University of Florida Gainesville, Florida, USA devries@ufl.edu DAIReXNET Webinar, April 9, 2012
  • 2. Topics • Cost of heat stress, value of cooling • Improved fertility in summer • Sexed semen mix
  • 3. Dairy heat stress losses in USA St-Pierre et al. (2003) • Feed intake  • Milk production  • Reproduction  • Repro culling  • Death  Average losses due to heat stress • Without any heat abatement: $167 per cow per year • With optimal heat abatement system: $100 per cow per year
  • 4. Annual production and economic losses in 6 states (minimum heat abatement) Annual Dry matter Repro Milk  Days Deaths hours of Loss State intake  culling  (lbs/cow/yr) open   (%) heat stress ($/cow/yr) (lbs/cow/yr) (%) (%) WI 201 403 9 0.6 0.1 9 72 CA 320 646 12 0.9 0.2 12 110 NM 370 745 23 2.2 0.5 20 168 AZ 798 1609 26 2.5 0.5 22 256 FL 1971 3975 59 8.0 1.7 49 676 TX 2196 4425 54 7.4 1.6 36 698 After St-Pierre et al. (2003)
  • 5. Florida seasonal pregnancy rates 1976-2002 winter summer De Vries and Risco, 2005
  • 6. Florida Observation • Many seasonal breeding herds – Calve in fall, breed in winter, dry in summer • Preferably no calving in late spring/summer – Heat stress during calving – Death risk  (cows, calves) – Milk production , fertility  • Getting cows pregnant in summer:  late spring / summer calving • How important is it to get cows pregnant in summer?
  • 7. Can we improve profitability by improved fertility and better insemination decisions? A story of calving patterns
  • 8. Systems approach • Large spreadsheet(+) with heifers and cows, lactation curves, fertility, feed intakes, labor, prices, etc. • Decisions: replacement, insemination, calf raising • Closed herd: sell surplus heifer calves + all bull calves • Optimize profit per (milking) slot per year • Heat stress effects on milk production, fertility, death risk • This is difficult 
  • 9. Relative humidity, temperature and temperature humidity index for Orlando, Florida max H max F THI min H min F
  • 10. Seasonal herd constraint: 1300 total cows cows calved heifer calves born heifer calves kept heifers calved
  • 11. Seasonal herd constraint: 1300 total cows Cows present Milk Cows milking Open cows
  • 12. • Increase probability of conception by 10% • For example: 40% + 0.1 * 40% = 44%
  • 13. +10% Probability of conception constraint: 1300 total cows Normal +10% Prob. conception Profit/slot/year $728 $767 +$39/slot/year heifers cows
  • 14. Inseminations +10% probability of conception constraint: 1300 total cows cows heifers
  • 15. Delayed inseminations +10% probability of conception constraint: 1300 total cows heifers cows
  • 16. Calvings +10% probability of conception constraint: 1300 total cows cows heifers
  • 17. 1000 milking cows constraint
  • 18. Seasonal herd constraint: 1000 milking cows Cows present Milk Cows milking Open cows
  • 19. Inseminations +10% probability of conception constraint: 1000 milking cows Normal +10% Prob. conception Profit/milking slot/year $587 $647 +$60/slot/year cows heifers
  • 20. Present and milking +10% probability of conception constraint: 1000 milking cows present milking
  • 21. Delayed inseminations +10% probability of conception constraint: 1000 milking cows heifers cows cows
  • 22. Calvings +10% probability of conception constraint: 1000 milking cows cows heifers
  • 23. Sexed, fresh IVF embryo transfer in summer increases conception rates • Summer transfer of sexed in-vitro fertilized embryos • 200% of conventional AI summer conception rate • 88% heifer calves Stewart et al. (2011) • Economics? • $90 per IVF-ET transfer • $250 sold heifer calf, $50 sold bull calf • Change in calving pattern
  • 24. IVF-ET in summer: scenario A conception rates and #inseminations, IVF-ET All summer “breedings” with IVF-ET No delayed inseminations All calves sold, heifers purchased 1300 total cows constraint conception rate inseminations/ET
  • 25. IVF-ET in summer: scenario A Cows calved and milking All summer “breedings” with IVF-ET No delayed inseminations All calves sold, heifers purchased 1300 total cows constraint Value of IVF-ET: -$4 /milking slot/year milking Normal: $779, IVF-ET: $775 calved
  • 26. IVF-ET in summer: scenario B conception rates and #inseminations, #IVF-ET Optimal summer “breedings” Allow delayed inseminations 1000 milking cows constraint conception rate inseminations/ET
  • 27. IVF-ET in summer: scenario B Cows calved and milking Optimal summer “breedings” Allow delayed inseminations 1000 milking cows constraint Value of IVF-ET: $88 /milking slot/year milking Normal: $569, IVF-ET: $657 calved
  • 28. Conventional, sexed semen, and summer heat stress • $20 conventional dairy semen – Normal fertility – 48% heifer calves – Extra heifers calves sold for $250, bull calves $50 • $35 female sexed semen – 80% of normal fertility – 88% heifer calves – Extra heifer calves sold for $250, bull calves $50 • What is the optimal mix?
  • 29. Conventional and sexed semen mix constraint: 1000 milking cows conv. cows sexed heifers Profit conventional only: $587 / milking slot / year Profit sexed + conventional: $624 / milking slot / year (+$37)
  • 30. Summary • Cooling dairy cows pays in hot climates • Value of improving fertility in summer depends on seasonality of cow performance (milk, fertility) and herd constraints (parlor capacity, cash flow) • Seasonality has major implications for optimal insemination mix Thank you devries@ufl.edu