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Social media and military suicide
- 1. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES Long-term, near-term, and imminent social media “signatures” of emerging suicide death among military personnel Craig J. Bryan, PsyD, ABPP Sungchoon Sinclair, MS AnnaBelle O. Bryan, BSPH Jonathan E. Butner, PhD National Center for Veterans Studies & The University of Utah
- 2. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES Background • Previous NCVS/PERSEREC/Northrop Grumman research collaboration supports the utility of social media data to predict which military personnel will die by suicide • In addition to knowing who will die by suicide, knowing when suicide will occur is key • Little is known about emergent suicide risk because traditional analytic methods do not consider nonlinear change processes or model interactions among multiple changing variables over time • Dynamical systems models may uncover previously unrecognized patterns
- 3. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES What is Dynamic System Theory (DST)? • Assumes emergence; i.e., the many constituent parts interact to form complex relationships that cannot easily be deduced from the individual parts • Emergence articulates that variability in an outcome(s) is a function of three things: stable temporal patterns, the ability to move between these stable patterns, and perturbations due to the fact that social systems are quite large and we are only examining part of the system when we choose an outcome(s) to describe it • Depicting models where forms of change are treated as the outcome(s) are able to simultaneously depict temporal patterns and the stability of those patterns under an assumption of constant perturbations. We can then characterize the system through the set of these patterns and how/when the system moves between them, essentially mapping out emergence both descriptively and inferentially
- 4. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES Procedures • Analyses were restricted to participants based on the following rules: – Posts made by the user – Posts within 365 days of death – Posts preceding or on the date of death – Posts appearing in chronological order – Weighted difference between posts to account for varying lengths of time between posts
- 5. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES Data Analysis • Multilevel actor-partner interdependence model (APIM) data structure – Separate intercepts for each of five cluster variables: trigger, cognition, emotion, physiology, behavior – Separate models run for different time frames centered at 182, 90, 30, 7, and 1 day prior to death
- 6. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES 6 months 3 months 1 month 1 week Day of death Suicide Control Trigger Phys Beh Emot Cog Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot
- 7. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES 6 months 3 months 1 month 1 week Day of death Suicide Control Trigger Phys Beh Emot Cog Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot
- 8. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES Simulations The effect of change in triggers on subsequent cognition posts
- 9. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES Simulations The effect of change in triggers on subsequent emotion posts
- 10. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES 6 months 3 months 1 month 1 week Day of death Suicide Control Trigger Phys Beh Emot Cog Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot
- 11. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES Simulations The effect of change in cognition on subsequent emotion posts
- 12. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES 6 months 3 months 1 month 1 week Day of death Suicide Control Trigger Phys Beh Emot Cog Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot Trigger Phys Beh Cog Emot
- 13. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES Simulations The effect of change in behavior on subsequent cognition posts
- 14. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES Conclusion/Summary
- 15. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES Summary • Results of the analysis explain an estimated 45 percent of the variance in death • Suicides and controls show different patterns of coordination among the five domains • “Signatures” of emerging suicide death: – Overall: Triggers driving change in emotion and cognition – Three months before suicide: Coupling of physiological domain with cognitive and emotional domains disappears – One month before suicide: Coupling of behavior with cognition emerges (increased behaviors drive less change in cognition) – One week to one day before suicide: Coupling of behavior with cognition strengthens
- 16. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES Case Examples
- 17. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES Case 839 29 12/6/2011 Chilling with my baby!!!! 30 12/7/2011 Sweet dream My Baby, I love you, Always and Forever!!!!!! 31 12/8/2011 My Baby just left and Im a total mess right now, I miss her so much already!!!! 32 12/9/2011 Has officially decided that I FLIPPIN’ HATE goin’ to bed and waking up with out MY Baby!!!! Slept like shit last night without her!!! Miss her so much!!!! 33 12/9/2011 I know right??? 34 12/9/2011 I am an always have been my own worst enemy an possibly just fukked up the BEST thing that ever happened to me!!!!! 35 12/9/2011 P Always & Forever 36 12/9/2011 Always & Forever 37 12/9/2011 [link to song lyrics] 38 12/9/2011 FUK IT!!!! 39 12/10/2011 So do not have enough alcohol for the night 12/11/2011 Case 839 dies of self-inflicted gunshot wound
- 18. NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES www.veterans.utah.edu @vetstudies / Veterans Studies Questions Craig Bryan craig.bryan@Utah.edu
Hinweis der Redaktion
- We decided to focus the current analyses on only those posts that were generated by the user themselves so we could model the emergence of suicide risk based solely on the information provided by the participants themselves. In order to focus on the 12 months immediately preceding death, we excluded those data points with dates that occurred more than 365 days before the date of death. We also excluded posts with dates after the date of death to eliminate the influence of grief/memorializing from others. We sorted the data into chronological order, and excluded any data points that violated this temporal sequence. Because posts could occur over variable lengths of time, we weighted the difference between multiple time points. Of note, the results from the weighted analyses were similar to those obtained from unweighted analyses (i.e., ignoring the variable length of time between concurrent posts), suggesting consistency in findings regardless of how time is treated.
- In the suicide group there is a consistent coupling of triggers with emotion and cognition that is often missing among controls. When a coupling relationship occurs among controls, the direction of the arrow flows from emotion to trigger, suggesting that more intense negative emotions lead to change in triggers. In the suicide group, however, the coupling relationship flows most consistently from triggers to emotion and cognition, suggesting that more severe triggers lead to change in emotions and cognition. Seeing a directional arrow flowing from triggers to cognition and emotion may serve as a signal for a suicide trajectory at all time points.
- There is also a consistent coupling among physiology, emotion, and cognition in the suicide group. A similar coupling is observed in the suicide group only when we are more than three months out from the suicide. This means that up until 3 months prior to death, suicide cases look fairly similar to controls in this way. The loss of this coupling relationship between the 3 and 1 month pre-death point may serve as an early signal for suicide.
- During the month immediately preceding death, we see the emergence of an antiphase coupling relationship between behavior and cognition in the suicide group. The arrow flows from behavior to cognition, which suggests that more maladaptive behavioral patterns leads to stabilization of the cognitive domain. This type of coupling is absent in the control group during the same time frame. Where a coupling between behavior and cognition does exist in the control group 6 and 3 months prior to death, the direction of the arrow is reversed and the relationship is in phase vs. antiphase. This suggests that negative cognitions lead to negative behaviors in the control group. The emergence of the antiphase coupling of behavior and cognition may serve as a near-term warning sign for suicide whereas the in-phase coupling of cognition and behavior may serve as a signature for the control group.