2. Falkland Islands’ office fire evacuation
IF YOU DISCOVER A FIRE:
• Operate the fire alarm by breaking the glass of the nearest
call point. Call points are located at each exit door.
• Leave the building by the nearest available Fire Exit and
proceed to the assembly point on ELIZABETH BRIDGE.
ON HEARING THE ALARM:
• The Evacuation signal is a continuous high-pitched siren.
• Close windows in your immediate vicinity.
• Leave the building by the nearest available fire exit closing
fire doors behind you.
• Proceed to the assembly area at ELIZABETH BRIDGE.
• DO NOT ATTEMPT TO USE THE LIFTS (FOR SAFETY
THESE ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR NORMAL USE WHEN
THE ALARM OPERATES).
• DO NOT STOP TO COLLECT PERSONAL
BELONGINGS.
• DO NOT RE-ENTER THE BUILDING UNTIL
INSTRUCTED BY THE EMERGENCY SERVICES
VIA THE CO-ORDINATING FIRE MARSHAL.
6th February 2014 // Page 1
3. Forward looking statements
This presentation may contain forward-looking statements and information that
both represents management's current expectations or beliefs concerning future
events and are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties.
A number of factors could cause actual results, performance or events to differ
materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements.
6th February 2014 // Page 2
4. Introduction
“...our strategy is to invest in high-quality developments whilst
maintaining balance sheet strength...”
Premier Today
Going Forward
• Robust cash flow and profitability
The Board will:
• 800 mmboe reserves and resources
• Give priority to balance sheet strength
• Production of 66 kboepd (January 2014)
• Focus investments on our highest return
projects
• Key exploration campaigns in
Indonesia, Norway and Falklands
• NAV >£5 per share (broker consensus)
6th February 2014 // Page 3
• Reduce capital exposure to the Sea Lion
project
6. Robust balance sheet
and funding position
• Current net debt of $1.45 bn
– Gearing of 41%, well within Board guidelines
• Significant headroom on financial covenants today and going forward
– Cash flow cover at 2x (covenant of <3x)
– Interest cover at 8x (covenant of >4x)
• Excellent access to debt markets
– $700 m raised in Q4 2013 on competitive terms
– Maturities extended (2017 – 2022)
– Zero drawings on existing principal bank facility
• Continuing strong market appetite from debt investors
– Anticipate attractive terms for re-financing during 2014
– Reverse enquiry from investors on MTN programme
– Initial favourable indications from export credit funding markets
6th February 2014 // Page 5
7. Significant cash flow growth
Financial Outlook
Cash Flows (Current Oil Prices)
• 2014 guidance 58-63 kboepd
– Positive start to 2014 production
– Changing mix generates higher
cash flows
• Solan, Catcher fields
– Add up to 30,000 bopd of valuable
UK barrels
– Value per barrel continues to rise
• UK production growth monetises high
value UK tax loss position
– Unlikely to pay UK CT until end of
decade
6th February 2014 // Page 6
2013
2014
Post Solan Post Catcher
8. Portfolio optionality
Prudent Financial Management
Significant Flexibility
• Planning case $85/bbl
• Current oil price $105/bbl
• Active disposal programme
• Active disposal programme continues
• Will seek partner for Sea Lion
• Will seek partner for Sea Lion
• Production base line of 75 kboepd
• Substantial capacity for:
• Future discretion on exploration and
unsanctioned projects (eg Bream)
– Debt reduction, or
• >US$1 bn covenant headroom
– Incremental investment in quality
projects
• Gearing in line with current levels
6th February 2014 // Page 7
– Enhanced shareholder
distributions, or
10. Catcher development overview
• Project Sanction
– Pre-tax IRR >20% based on $85/bbl
• Gross reserves (2P) of 92 mmboe within initial development
– Upside of 140 mmboe
• Excellent reservoir qualities
– 35% porosity and very high permeabilities
• Fully defined development scheme
– Leased Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) model
– Subsea tie-backs of the Catcher, Varadero and Burgman fields to FPSO
– Expected to produce at peak ~50,000 bopd (~6% of the entire UKCS production)
– $2.2 bn gross Capex including ~30% of allowances and contingencies
– Development drilling of 14 producing wells and 8 water injector wells commencing 2015
• First oil in 2017 and an expected life of field of 10+ years
6th February 2014 // Page 9
11. New North Sea hub
• Location: Block 28/9
• Water depth: 300 feet
• 3 fields as part of initial development
• 22 wells to be drilled
Catcher area discoveries:
• Catcher
August 2010
• Varadero
January 2011
• Burgman
March 2011
• Carnaby
June 2012
• Bonneville
April 2013
Block 28/9
Premier (Op.)
Wintershall
20.0%
Cairn Energy
6th February 2014 // Page 10
50.0%
30.0%
12. Exploration and appraisal success
Varadero
Catcher
Burgman
• All exploration and appraisal
wells encountered hydrocarbon
bearing sands:
– Tay sands in 28/9-1Z, -3, -2,
-4, -4Z, -5A, -6 and -6Z (all
fields)
– Cromarty sands in 28/9-1,
-1Y and -3 (Catcher only)
STOIIP
Oil
Reserves
RF%
Catcher
129
38.6
30
Oil
Varadero
77
21.7
28
Gas
Burgman
86
23.3
27
Catcher Area
289
83.6
29
Field
Determination
Area
Carnaby
Bonneville
Field
Licence
NB Bonneville extends further south,
map limited by HD data extent
6th February 2014 // Page 11
13. Good understanding of the rocks
Region of deposition of original
Cromarty and Tay sands
Joseph C. DeVay et al, 2000,
AAPG Memoir 72 / SEPM Special Publication No. 68
• Late Palaeocene/early Eocene turbidite sand systems
Tay
Cromarty
6th February 2014 // Page 12
• High porosity (~35%) and permeability (Darcy
permeabilities) sands deposited in Cromarty and
Tay intervals
• Post depositional re-mobilisation and injection of
sands, leading to high degree of vertical connectivity
14. Seismic will assist with well placement
Catcher Cromarty
Catcher East (Tay)
GOC
Balder
OWC
Catcher
Cromarty
Chalk
Polarcus HD seismic (far stack coloured inversion)
• Excellent quality seismic imaging at the reservoir level due to shallow depths
and simple overburden
• High quality, fine line spacing (high density) seismic was shot in 2011
• Oil-filled sands in the Tay and Cromarty have AVO response and are clearly
identifiable
6th February 2014 // Page 13
Catcher
East (Tay)
17. Reservoir depletion optimised
Oil pore volume thickness map
VI3
VP3
CTP7
CCP5
CTI1
VP4
CCP3
VI2
VI1
VP2
CCI2
VP1
CTP1
CCP6
BP2
BP1
BI3
BI2
BP4
BI1
BP3
BP5
6th February 2014 // Page 16
Producers
Injectors
• 22 well development including 14
producers and 8 injectors
• Wells target thickest oil sands to
maximise rate and recovery
• Wells positioned to allow
effective sweep
• Two phases of drilling on each
field allows:
– Optimisation of production
profile
– Learnings from drilling shorter
wells to be applied to later
longer wells
18. Rig and well systems contracts awarded
• Wells drilled over six - 4 slot templates from a
Heavy Duty Jack-Up
• Subsea well system with HP riser
• Subsea trees run from Jack-Up (similar to
Huntington development)
• Ability to workover wells with an intervention
vessel, Jack-Up or Semi-Submersible
6th February 2014 // Page 17
19. FPSO build
• Concluded a highly competitive tender process
– 3 international companies
– Re-fit versus new build
• Formal announcement of preferred bidder imminent
• 750,000 bbls oil storage
• Designed for Functional Spec
• 125,000 bpd liquids
– Oil – 60,000 bopd
– Gas – 60 mmscfd
– Sea water injection 75,000 bpd
– Future tie-ins
– Spare risers included in current design
6th February 2014 // Page 18
21. Upside – near field
discoveries and exploration
Exploration (Laverda)
• 25 mmbbls STOIIP
• Low cost tie-back to Catcher development
Catcher North (CTP2 well)
• 2-4 mmbbls reserves
• Possible subsea tie-back or
ERD from Catcher drill centre
Laverda
Catcher
North
(CTP2)
Carnaby (Burgman extension)
• Discovered August 2012 by 28/9-5A
• 28 mmbbls STOIIP
Bonneville
• Discovered April 2013 by 28/9a-6 and -6Z wells
– Drilled at >70 as a “test” for Catcher
• 30 mmbbls STOIIP
Varadero
Catcher
Burgman
Carnaby
Oil
Bonneville
Gas
Licence
Area synergies
• Capacity of the vessel could support other
area discoveries
6th February 2014 // Page 20
NB Bonneville extends further south,
map limited by HD data extent
23. Catcher tax attributes
Bare-boat Charter
• Industry-wide discussions are ongoing with HMT regarding the possible introduction of
taxation on bare-boat charter income
Small Field Allowances
• The Small Field Allowance shelters £150 m taxable profits from the Supplementary Charge
(SCT) saving tax at 32% for each qualifying field with P50 reserves <45 mmbbls
• The Catcher, Burgman and Varadero fields will separately qualify for the Small Field
Allowance, resulting in total gross allowance for the development of £450 m
Tax synergies
• Premier has CT/SCT losses and allowances of $2.4 bn at 31 December 2013
• No UK CT expected to be payable until at least 2019
6th February 2014 // Page 22
24. Major milestones
• Premier’s Board has approved the project
– Formal Sanction on completion of the contracts and receipt of
JV and Government approvals
• The FDP will be submitted to DECC next week
– Environmental Statement already submitted
• All major contracts are near to completion
– In final stages with acceptable Ts&Cs
• Targets and plans in place to deliver upside potential
– Reservoir recovery rates and future tie-backs
• Project team in place and will deliver first oil in the summer of 2017
6th February 2014 // Page 23
26. Falkland Islands
Location
• Situated on the southern part of the
South American Plate on the Falkland
Plateau
• 220km from the Falkland Islands in
the North Falkland Basin
• Water depth 450m
Mid
Atlantic
Ridge
Nazca Plate
Premier Oil
FOGL
Argos
Regulatory environment
• Petroleum legislation modelled on UK
• Falkland Islands Government is
responsible for regulation and has
advice from UK DECC, HSE, BGS
Fiscal terms
• Attractive fiscal terms:
– 26% corporation tax
– 9% royalty
South American Plate
NFB
Falkland Plateau
Falkland
Islands
SFB
Drake
Passage
Antarctic Plate
Falkland Oil and Gas
Noble Energy
Scotia Plate
Borders & Southern
Antarctic
Peninsula
Antarctic Plate
Weddell Sea
6th February 2014 // Page 25
27. Premier’s Falkland Islands portfolio
Licence PL032
• Premier 60%, operator; Rockhopper 40%
• Contains Sea Lion discovery made in 2010, extensively
appraised in 2011
• Chatham exploration prospect
Licence PL004
• Premier 36%, operator; FOGL 40%; Rockhopper 24%
• Contains Casper, Casper South, Beverley
• Exploration includes Zebedee (PL004b), Jayne East (PL004c)
and Isobel/Elaine (PL004a)
Phased Development
• Phase 1 – Sea Lion (PL032)
• Phase 2 – Satellite fields and southern extent of Sea Lion
Exploration Upside
• Four well programme scheduled for 2015
6th February 2014 // Page 26
PL032
PL004b
PL004c
PL004a
28. Sea Lion structural and
depositional setting
PL032
SL30
SL20
SL10
Casper
Casper South
Beverley
Zebedee
Jayne E
Syncline Axis
PL004b
Stratigraphically trapped in overlapping deep water lacustrine fans - younger to the south
6th February 2014 // Page 27
PL004c
30. Dataset and key reservoir
and fluid parameters
Extensive appraisal dataset
• Discovered by well 14/10-2 and appraised by 8 wells (plus 2 sidetracks to core)
• 3D data full stack reflectivity seismic (2007 and 2010, merged in 2011/12)
• Well data
– Extensive suite of high quality well data
– ~500 MDT pressures and samples from all wells (gas, oil and water)
– Extensive core inventory: 455m core
– 2 DSTs: 14/10-5 & 14/10-2; 13 Mini DST’s (IPTT): 14/10-4, 14/10-5, 14/10-6, 14/10-7, 14/10-9, 14/15-4a
Key Parameters
Oil gravity
28 API
Wax content
23% - 35%
Gas/oil ratio
270 – 420 scf/stb
Reservoir oil viscosity
Average porosity
Average permeability
5 – 6 cP
21%
160 mD
Oil-water contact
2476 mSS
Gas-oil contact (seen in Casper & Casper South fans)
2402 mSS
Discovered oil in place (with/without SL20 gas cap)
Discovered free gas in place (with/without SL20 gas cap)
6th February 2014 // Page 29
1.2 / 1.4 billion stb
1.9 / 1.6 Tscf
31. Sea Lion Phase 1 development – TLP
Offtake
Tanker
Floating Storage
& Offloading
Concept Selection Highlights
Permanent Drilling Rig
Minimal Subsea Infrastructure
Phased Development
Improved Economics
Gas Disposal Wells
6th February 2014 // Page 30
Tension Leg
Platform
32. Phase 1 reservoir development plan
• Active waterflood with multiple pore volumes of water
injection over field life (~5 bbl per bbl of oil recoverable)
• 32 development wells
– 19 producers and 11 water injectors
– 2 subsea gas injection wells
– 12 wells pre-drilled
• Recovers 293 mmstb over 25 years
• Assumes a gas cap is present
in the west
– Well scheme will be adjusted
if absent
– 60 mmbbls upside
• Surplus gas will be injected
into gas caps
6th February 2014 // Page 31
33. TLP oil producer well design
Water Injection Wells
• Inclined trajectories
• Cased and perforated
• Hydraulically fractured
• Heated water
• Conventional Gas Lift
• Downhole Wax Inhibitor
• Electrical Tubing Heating
• Horizontal up to 1500 m
• Cemented Liner
• Cased and Perforated
6th February 2014 // Page 32
34. TLP analogues
Sea Lion
(Pre-FEED)
Olympus
(MARS B)
Premier
Shell
Region
S. Atlantic
GoM
WD (ft)
1,372
3,000
Oil (mbpd)
120
100
Gas (mmscfd)
165
180
Manning Level
175-200
192
Slots
32-36
24
Date Installed
TBA
2013
Benchmark Payload (short tons)
45,000
42,200
Displacement (short tons)
118,000
109,000
Hull Weight (short tons)
28,400
35,800
300 x 300
300 x 400
Development Name
Operator
Deck Dimensions (ft)
6th February 2014 // Page 33
Other Analogue TLPs
• Snorre 1992
• Ursa 1998
• Big Foot 2014
36. TLP build
Living Quarters
Topsides Fabrication
and Integration
• U.S.
• Korea
• Singapore
• Dubai
Utility Module
Drilling Module
Process Module
Hull Fabrication
• Korea
• China
• Singapore
• Japan
6th February 2014 // Page 35
Flare Boom
Hull
Survival Craft
Support Structure
38. Operations and logistics
Exploration drilling support model
• Drilling base in Stanley from which supply boats and helicopters support the rig
• Regular freighter supplies from the UK to the drilling base
• Fortnightly charter flight from the UK for personnel on 28/28 rota
• Maximum of circa 100 people offshore
1. Pre-drilling
• Similar model to exploration drilling
• More personnel, more equipment and a bigger onshore drilling base
• Maximum of circa 120 people offshore
2. Production and TLP drilling
• Production base is a relatively small increment to the drilling base
• Maximum of circa 200 people offshore
• Premier will be Duty Holder but supported by two major contractors:
– Production operations contractor;
– Drilling operations contractor
3. Production only
• Much lower level of supply boat activity
• Normally circa 120 people offshore
• Activity peaks during planned maintenance shutdowns
• Revert to Phase 2 during infill drilling and workovers
Planning status
• Discussions underway with potential logistics providers
• Modelling of materials and personnel requirements is under way
• Working operations and logistics cost model has been developed
6th February 2014 // Page 37
39. Design phase milestones
18 month “Design” phase
• Concept Selection to the start of execution (award of the EPC contract(s))
• Award of FEED Contracts in Q2 2014
• Shortlisting of EPC bidders in Q4 2014
– Updated cost estimates available
• Q4 2014 onwards – formalised financing and farm down process
• Submit draft FDP at end 2014
• EPC tenders in Q1 2015
• Sanction in Q2 2015
6th February 2014 // Page 38
40. Phase 1 development costs
Indicative costs subject to FEED
• Surface Facilities Capex
– TLP
– Subsea and risers
– Project management and other costs
$3.5 bn
$2.4 bn
$0.45 bn
$0.65 bn
• Drilling Capex
$1.7 bn
• Total Phase 1 Capex
$5.2 bn
• Spend to first oil
$3.8 bn
• 25 year annual Opex
– Includes FSU rental and well interventions
$260m per year
All numbers are un-escalated $ 2013
6th February 2014 // Page 39
41. Economics and financing
Economics
• Discount of $6.50 to Brent is assumed to account for oil quality and transportation
• Sea Lion Phase 1 yields an IRR of around 20% at an oil price of $85/bbl (real)
Project Funding Strategy
• Corporate funding remains an option
• Given attractive terms, base case assumes construction-related project financing
for 60% of TLP cost
• Reduces pre first oil “equity” requirement to approx. $2.5 bn (gross)
– Illustratively a 30% farm down would reduce Premier’s share to
approx. $1.8 bn
6th February 2014 // Page 40
42. Phase 2 development
Phase 2
• Development of Casper, Casper South
– Plus the southern extent of Sea Lion
• Single manifold subsea tie-back to the TLP
• More detailed development studies underway
• Development plan will incorporate results from exploration
– Could change the scheme to be a second TLP
6th February 2014 // Page 41
43. Further Sea Lion scale opportunities
Lower F2 amplitude extraction
• High quality dataset
F3G amplitude extraction
• Size of exploration prize:
– 1,000 mmbbls prospective
resources
– 250 mmbbls risked
Sea Lion
fan outline
Jayne
East
Zebedee
30km
Orinoco
Elaine- Isobel
6th February 2014 // Page 42
• Four E&A wells to be complete by end
of 2015:
– Upside in Sea Lion west
flank/Chatham
– Development-changing potential in
Zebedee and Jayne East
– Large fan complex – Elaine/Isobel
area
• Rig tenders being evaluated
– Follow-up exploration and appraisal
wells possible through options
44. Zebedee – high impact near field
3D visualisation of Casper South and Zebedee sands
Fan input
• Zebedee prospect
– Onlaps the Sea Lion field
– Onlapped by the Casper South discovery
• Extends the proven SLMC (F2 sequence) play
• Gross prospective resource (F2)
– 28-46-150 mmboe (low risk)
• Multiple reservoir (F1 & F3) also targeted
• Gross prospective resource (F1, F2, F3)
– 28-165-400 mmboe
14/15-4a
Zebedee
(proposed location)
F1
F2
Casper South
discovery
Zebedee
prospect (F2 fan)
F2
Sea Lion
discovery
Casper South
discovery
F3
F3
F3
2 km
6th February 2014 // Page 43
14/15-2
45. Jayne East – high impact near field
Amplitude extraction – F2 lower fan
Jayne East
Zebedee
• Equity increased to 36%, partner equity
interests now aligned and fully funded
• Well to test five potential reservoirs levels
across the F2 and F3 sequences
– Beverly, Casper SE and Zebedee East (F2)
– Jayne East and Ida (F3)
• Gross prospective reserves:
– 14-37-87 mmboe
• Overall risk assessment –
moderate
Jayne East
(proposed location)
– Key risk: updip seal
F2
F3
6th February 2014 // Page 44
46. Isobel/Elaine – another Sea Lion?
• Equity increased to 36%, partner equity
interests now aligned and fully funded
• Stacked targets exclusively within F3 sequence
• Gross prospective resources:
– 7-44-226 mmboe
• Overall risk assessment - moderate
– Key risks: reservoir and updip seal
Single stratigraphic layer within Elaine/Isobel complex
Isobel Deep
A
PL 03
A
PL 05
B
PL 04a
B
Irene
5km
Elaine
Isobel
Isobel Deep
2 km
6th February 2014 // Page 45
51. Subsea – In-field manifolds (3-off)
• Common design for each manifold structure
• 9-slot assemblies (6x production + 3x water injection)
• Slab sided structures with piled foundations (estimated 230 tonnes)
• Fishing friendly
• Incorporates production test header c/w
subsea multiphase flow meter
• All production and water injection
piping fabricated from super duplex
Field
Production
Slots
Water Inject
Slots
Catcher
5
2
Varadero
4
3
Burgman
5
3
6th February 2014 // Page 50
52. Subsea – riser base structures (3-off)
• Similar design for each riser base tie-in structure
• Open sided (estimated weight 100 tonnes)
• Dropped object protection only (i.e. all structures
are located within FPSOs 500m safety zone so
not exposed to fishing)
• Gravity base foundations
• Include SSIVs for production,
gas lift & gas export
riser systems
6th February 2014 // Page 51
53. Subsea – bundle option
• Three similar bundle systems planned for
tie-back of the developments
• Each bundle circa 3.5km in
length, comprising a 38” outer carrier
pipe designed to house the 12”
production, 10” water injection and 4” gas
lift flow-lines plus steel tubed E/H control
and chemical injection lines
• Manifolds and riser-base tie-in structures
integrated into the bundle towheads
6th February 2014 // Page 52
54. Subsea – gas export structure
• Slope sided to resist trawl gear snagging loads and promote over trawl-ability
• Approximate weight of 110 tonnes
• Supports connection of a temporary subsea pig receiver c/w DB&B isolation
• Supports entry of a future tie-in c/w DB&B
• All valves diver / ROV actuated
6th February 2014 // Page 53