1. The Population Trends That Are
Reshaping Michigan
Reynolds Farley
Population Studies Center
Institute for Social Research
University of Michigan
renf@umich.edu
Observations prepared for a conference organized by:
GOVERNING and the American Association of Retired Persons
Lansing, Michigan
June 6, 2012

2. Michigan’s Slow Population Growth
in Recent Decades
Low Fertility
 Net loss of population in exchange with
other states
 Relatively few immigrants from abroad
 Michigan loses the economic stimulus of
population growth
 Michigan loses political influence

3. FIGURE 1. Percent Change by Decade for Michigan’s Population and
for the Nation’s Population, 1860 to 2010
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Michigan Rest of the USA

4. FIGURE 2. Michigan’s Share of the Nation’s Total Population, 1850 to 2010
5%
4.4%
4.2% 4.3% 4.1%
3.9% 4.0%
4% 3.7%
3.5% 3.5%
3.3% 3.2% 3.2% 3.3%
3.0% 3.1%
3% 2.8%
2.0%
2%
1%
0%
60
80
90
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
00
10
50
70
00
10
18
18
18
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
18
18
19
19

5. FIGURE 3. Number of Congressional Seats Apportioned to Michigan
after Each Census, 1850 to 2010
20 19 19
NUMBER OF CONGRESSIONAL SEATS
18 18
18 17 17
16
16 15
14
14 13 13
12 12
12 11
10 9
8
6
6
4
4
2
0
50
60
80
90
10
30
40
70
90
70
00
20
50
60
80
00
10
18
18
18
19
19
19
18
18
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20

6. MAP 1. Percent Change in Population of Michigan Counties, 2000 to 2011
Keweenaw
Keweenaw
Houghton
Houghton
Baraga
Ontonagon
Marquette Luce
Gogebic Alger Chippewa
Iron Schoolcraft
Mackinac
Dickinson Chippewa
Delta
Menominee
Emmet
Cheboygan
Presque Isle
Charlevoix
Montmorency
Antrim Otsego Alpena
Leelanau
Benzie Kalkaska Crawford Oscoda Alcona
Grand Traverse
Legend Ogemaw Iosco
Manistee Wexford Missaukee
Roscommon
-2.6% and Below (Population Decline) Arenac
Mason Lake Osceola Clare Gladwin
Huron
0% to -2.5% (Very Slow Loss) Bay
Oceana Mecosta Isabella Midland
Newaygo
1% to 2.5% (Very Slow Growth) Tuscola Sanilac
Montcalm Saginaw
Muskegon Gratiot
2.6% to 11.0% (Moderate Grow th) Lapeer
Kent Genesee St. Clair
Ottawa Ionia ClintonShiawassee
Over 11% (Grew Faster than the Nation)
Oakland Macomb
Allegan Barry Eaton Ingham Livingston
Van Buren
Kalamazoo Calhoun Jackson Washtenaw Wayne
Berrien Cass St. Joseph Branch Hillsdale Lenawee Monroe

7. FIGURE 4. Population Change in Michigan Metropolitan Areas, 2000 to 2010
Holland-Grand Haven 10.7%
Ann Arbor 6.8%
Grand Rapids 4.5%
Monroe 4.2%
Kalamazoo 3.7%
Lansing 3.6%
Jackson 1.2%
Battle Creek -1.3%
Bay City -2.2%
Flint -2.4%
Niles-Benton Harbor -3.5%
Detroit -3.5%
Saginaw -4.7%
Non-metropolitan Michigan 0.4%
United States, Except Michigan 10.1%
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

8. TABLE 1. State Births Per 1,000 Women Ages 15 to 44 in 2010
State Births per 1,000 Women
States with Highest Birth Rates
Utah 92
Alaska 83
Montana 82
Mississippi 81
Nevada 80
Big Ten/Northwest Territory States
Iowa 74
Total United States 72
Illinois 69
Wisconsin 67
Minnesota 67
Ohio 66
Indiana 65
Michigan 67
States with the Lowest Birth Rates
Massachusetts 57
West Virginia 57
Delaware 56
District of Columbia 56
Vermont 51

9. TABLE 2. State Age-Adjusted Death Rates Per 100,000 in 2009
Deaths per
State 100,000
States with Lowest Death Rates
Hawaii 620
Minnesota 652
California 652
Arizona 653
New York 666
Big Ten/Northwest Territory States
Wisconsin 709
Iowa 725
Total United States 741
Illinois 743
Michigan 786
Ohio 814
Indiana 816
States with Highest Death Rates
Louisiana 888
Kentucky 898
Alabama 920
Mississippi 926
West Virginia 902

10. FIGURE 5. Natural Increase (Births minus Deaths) and Net Internal Migration,
Annual Estimates, 1980 to 2010
100
Natural Increase 75
(Population Gain) 50
25
0
THOUSANDS
-25
-50
Net Internal Migration -75
(Population Loss) -100
-125
-150
-175
1980
1983
1984
1985
1986
1989
1991
1992
1994
1995
1997
1998
2000
2002
2003
2006
2007
2008
2009
1981
1982
1987
1988
1990
1993
1996
2099
2001
2004
2005
10
19

11. FIGURE 6. Median Age of the Population of “Oldest” States, Northwest Territory or
Big Ten States, and “Youngest” States, Census 2010
OLDEST STATES
M aine 42.7
Vermont 41.5
West Virginia 41.3
New Hampshire 41.1
Florida 40.7
NORTHWEST TERRITORY OR BIG TEN STATES
Pennsylvania 40.1
M ichigan 38.9
Ohio 38.8
Wisconsin 38.5
Iowa 38.1
Minnesota 37.4
Total United States 37.2
Indiana 37
Illinois 36.6
YOUNGEST STATES
Idaho 34.6
District of Columbia 33.8
Alaska 33.8
Texas 33.6
Utah 29.2
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
AGE IN YEARS

12. MAP 2. Percent Age 65 and Over in the Counties of Michigan and in
Comparison to the Nation, Census 2010
Keweenaw
Keweenaw
Houghton
Houghton
Ontonagon Baraga
Marquette Luce
Gogebic Alger
Chippewa
Iron Schoolcraft Mackinac
Dickinson Chippewa
Delta
Menominee
Emmet
Cheboygan
Presque Isle
Charlevoix
Montmorency
Antrim Otsego Alpena
Legend Leelanau
Benzie Kalkaska Crawford Oscoda Alcona
Michigan_Counties Grand Traverse
Manistee Wexford Missaukee Ogemaw Iosco
Age 65 and Over.AGE_65_PLU Roscommon
Arenac
Less than 12% (Younger) Mason Lake Osceola Clare Gladwin
Huron
Bay
13.9% to 12.1% (Close to National Average) Oceana Mecosta Isabella Midland
Newaygo
Tuscola Sanilac
Montcalm
14.0% to 17.0% (Somewhat Older) Muskegon Gratiot Saginaw
Lapeer
17.1% to 23.9% (Older) Ottawa
Kent
Ionia
Genesee
ClintonShiawassee St. Clair
Over 24% (Much Older) Oakland Macomb
Allegan Barry Eaton Ingham Livingston
Van Buren
Kalamazoo Calhoun Jackson Washtenaw Wayne
Berrien Cass St. Joseph Branch Hillsdale Lenawee Monroe

13. MAP 3. Natural Decrease Counties in Michigan―Counties with More
Deaths than Births, July 2010 to June 2011
Keweenaw
Keweenaw
Houghton
Houghton
Ontonagon Baraga
Marquette Luce
Gogebic Alger
Chippewa
Iron Schoolcraft Mackinac
Dickinson Chippewa
Delta
Menominee
Emmet
Cheboygan
Presque Isle
Charlevoix
Montmorency
Antrim Otsego Alpena
Leelanau
Benzie Kalkaska Crawford Oscoda Alcona
Grand Traverse
Manistee Wexford Missaukee Ogemaw Iosco
Roscommon
Arenac
Mason Lake Osceola Clare Gladwin
Huron
Bay
Oceana Mecosta Isabella Midland
Newaygo
Tuscola Sanilac
Montcalm Saginaw
Muskegon Gratiot
Counties shown in red report more Ottawa
Kent
Ionia
Genesee
ClintonShiawassee
Lapeer
St. Clair
deaths than births. Oakland Macomb
Allegan Barry Eaton Ingham Livingston
Van Buren
Kalamazoo Calhoun Jackson Washtenaw Wayne
Berrien Cass St. Joseph Branch Hillsdale Lenawee Monroe

14. FIGURE 7. Michigan’s Population by Age in 2009 and Projected Population in 2030
(in Thousands)
85+
Michigan, 2009 Michigan, 2030
80-84 Total Population: 9,996,000 Total Population: 10,692,000
75-79 Median Age: 37.6 years Median Age: 40.2 years
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
1,000 800 600 400 200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000
POPULATION (000)

15. FIGURE 7. Number of Jobs Each Month from January 2000 to March 2011
in Michigan and the Rest of the United States (in thousands)
140,000
Total United States, Except Michigan
NUMBER OF JOBS (000)
135,000
130,000
125,000
120,000
115,000
110,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
4,800
Michigan
NUMBER OF JOBS (000)
4,600
4,400
4,200
4,000
3,800
3,600
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

16. FIGURE 8. Employment Change by Industry in Michigan and Rest of the United States,
2000 to 2010, and Percent of Employment in Major Industrial Sectors, 2010
RETAIL TRADE
18.7% Michigan -4.7%
Rest of U.S. 13.8%
27.7%
DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING
12.7% -37.1%
6.5% -21.6%
MEDICAL AND HEALTH SERVICES
11.9% Michigan 19.0%
10.6% Rest of U.S. 30.6%
PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC AND MANAGEMENT SERVICES
9.9% -4.6%
11.3% 14.8%
ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY EDUCATION
5.9% -11.4%
6.2% 11.7%
FINANCE, INSURANCE AND REAL ESTATE
0.0%
5.7%
5.6%
6.4%
CONSTRUCTION
4.7% -30.5%
6.2% -0.7%
REPAIR AND PERSONAL SERVICES
4.2% 11.8%
4.7% -4.7%
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION
4.0% -0.2%
5.2% 16.4%
POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION
4.0% 26.0%
3.5% 29.8%
NON-DURABLE MANUFACTURING
3.7% -29.3%
4.1% -20.4%
TRANSPORTATION AND WAREHOUSING
3.3% -15.8%
4.2% -0.1%
SOCIAL SERVICES
13.6%
3.0%
3.0% 38.0%
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
100% -10.8%
100% 7.7%
-40% -20% 0% 20% 40%

17. FIGURE 9. Economic Status of Persons Living in Michigan and Elsewhere in the
United States: Per Capita Income for Residents 21 and Over, Median
Household Income and Poverty Rate, 1950 to 2008
MICHIGAN ELSEWHERE IN UNITED STATES
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008
1980 1980
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
$15,358 $32,338 $34,574 $35,084 $13,982 $28,851 $34,750 $38,370
PER CAPITA INCOME
$23,273 $33,555 $40,333 $21,186 $30,846 $39,099
COMFORTABLE MIDDLE CLASS NEAR POOR IMPOVERISHED
(Incomes 500% or more (Incomes 300% to 499% (Incomes 100% to 199% (Incomes below
of the poverty line) of the poverty line) of the poverty line) the poverty line)

18. FIGURE 10. Job Growth Rates for States from January 2011 to April 2012
(Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Survey of Employers)
STATES WITH HIGHEST RATES OF
NEW JOB GROWTH
Utah 3.2%
Oklahoma 3.0%
Louisiana 3.0%
Texas 2.9%
North Dakota 0.1%
NORTHWEST TERRITORY OR TRADITIONAL
BIG TEN STATES
Indiana 2.2%
Michigan 1.8%
Minnesota 1.5%
Ohio 1.4%
Iowa 1.4%
Total United State 1.4%
Illinois 0.8%
STATES WITH NO NET JOB GROWTH OR
A LOSS OF JOBS
Mississippi 0.0%
Maine 0.0%
Rhode Island -0.2%
New Hampshite -0.2%
Wisconsin -0.4%
-1% -1% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4%

19. FIGURE 8. Index of Labor Productivity in Manufacturing for the Nation, 1990 to 2011:
Number of Workers Needed in Years Past to Achieve Output of 100
Workers in 2011
240
220
NUMBER OF WORKERS
200
180
160
140
120
100
94
95
98
03
06
07
90
91
99
02
11
92
00
04
09
3
96
97
01
05
08
10
9
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
19
20

20. FIGURE 9. Population of Michigan Age 65 and Over, 1990 to 2030
2,200
2,000
1,800
MILLIONS
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
94
00
06
12
18
24
28
30
96
02
04
10
0
92
98
08
14
16
20
22
26
9
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
20
20
20
20
19
19
20
20
20
20

21. FIGURE 10. Percent Change in Employment in Michigan Metropolitan Areas, the
Remainder of Michigan, and the Rest of the United States, 2000 to 2010
Ann Arbor 1.9%
Benton Harbor -11.9%
Detroit -10.6%
Flint -23.8%
Grand Rapids-Muskegon -1.8%
Jackson -7.9%
Kalamazoo-Battle Creek -7.9%
Lansing-East Lansing -6.3%
Saginaw-Bay City-Midland -11.0%
Remainder of Michigan -7.2%
Total State of Michigan -10.8%
Remainder of United States 9.1%
-30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

22. FIGURE 11. Per Capita Income, 2000 to 2010, for Persons Aged 21 and Percent Change
in Constant Dollar Per Capita Income, 2000 to 2010, for Most Prosperous
States, Big Ten States, and Least Prosperous States
Percent Change
MOST PROSPEROUS STATES in Decade
District of Columbia $55,973 4.7%
Connecticut $51,205 -8.9%
New Jersey $48,163 -6.4%
Maryland $47,483 -2.3%
Massachusetts $46,393 -4.6%
NORTHWEST TERRITORY OR "BIG TEN" STATES
Minnesota $39,490 -7.5%
Illinois $37,829 -11.3%
Pennsylvania $35,283 -5.9%
Wisconsin $34,852 -11.0%
Iowa $33,882 -5.6%
Ohio $32,821 -14.4%
Michigan $32,509 -20.6%
Indiana $31,882 -15.6%
LEAST PROSPEROUS STATES
Idaho $30,161 -12.4%
Kentucky $29,426 -10.0%
Arkansas $28,474 --8.3%
West Virginia $27,569 -5.3%
Mississippi $26,842 -10.8%
Total United States $35,832 -15.6%
$25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000 $50,000 $55,000 $60,000