The latest report by Colliers Research “India Residential Property Market Overview – Q3 2016" is out and ready for download. Q3 2016 noted the launch of nearly 25,000 new residential units across the top six cities taking the YTD 2016 total to approximately 67,000 units. New launches across the major cities remained more or less at par with the previous quarter with the western cities Mumbai (28%) and Pune (23%) dominating the new launches pie followed by NCR (23%) Bengaluru (17%) and Chennai (9%) in the primary market. We are approaching a favourable period for the residential market in India as the government and developers are working together to solve the prolonged issue of delayed project deliveries and inventory overhang. We expect the festive season to help increase sales velocity. However, buyer interest is likely to remain towards affordable and mid-end housing projects in the subsequent quarters as well.
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Contents
India | Transaction volume set to
improve ............................................3
Mumbai | QOQ increase in launches
indicate a positive outlook .................4
Gurgaon | Sentiment to remain
cautious .............................................6
NOIDA | Developers seeking
alternative funding options .................8
Bengaluru | Steady demand amidst
cautious buyer sentiment .................10
Chennai | End-user demand revival in
the offing .........................................12
Pune | Residential market aims to
comeback ........................................14
3. Colliers Quarterly Q3 2016
INDIA | RESIDENTIAL
02 November 2016
Transaction
volume set to
improve
Surabhi Arora | Senior Associate Director | India
The residential market appears to be coming out of the
cycle of “low confidence, low investment”. Several
factors such as the strong office market that indicate
robust employment scenario, the festive
season and lowering interest rates are likely to
support housing market in coming months. We expect
residential market to witness growth in most cities.
Forecast at a glance
Demand
Demand shall continue to veer towards
the affordable and mid-end segment
establishments
Supply
Supply infusion expected in the form of
new launches due to the upcoming
festive season
Capital Values
Should largely remain stable across
major cities in India
Rental Rate
Likely to remain stable across micro
markets in most cities
Construction
Government initiatives shall start taking
effect and speed up the delayed
projects
Marginal increase in new launches;
select cities witness revival
Number of new residential launches recorded for Q3
2016 in the top six cities in India (Bengaluru, Chennai,
Pune, Mumbai, Noida and Gurgaon) were a little less
than 25,000 units making it about 67,000 so far for the
year 2016. Residential market in the western cities
bounced back and recorded maximum number of
launches in Mumbai and Pune with 28% and 23% share
of the total unit launches in Q3 2016, respectively. They
were followed by Bengaluru (17%), Noida (16%),
Chennai (9%) and Gurgaon (7%). After almost three
quarters, the Gurgaon and Noida residential market
witnessed several new launches this quarter in the wake
of upcoming festive season.
As we entered into the festive season, developers
continued to offer discounts, flexible payment plans and
other incentives such as free parking and gold coins to
promote sales. Although buyers have maintained a
cautious approach, the number of enquiries have
increased amidst improved sentiments owing to RERA
and the upcoming festive season. However, buyer
interest remained towards affordable and mid-end
housing projects and we expect the trend to continue in
subsequent quarters as well.
We are approaching a favourable period for the
residential market in India as the government and
developers are working together to solve the prolonged
issue of inventory overhang. The governments in most
cities are expediting the implemention of RERA. Several
courts have passed rulings in the favour of buyers
enforcing accountability on developers with respect to
delayed possessions in cities like Noida, Gurgaon and
Mumbai. Developers experiencing cash crunch are
looking for alternative methods of funding and private
equity investments to complete delayed developments or
refund buyers. As per our opinion, the India residential
market, which is currently, end user driven has caught
an eye of several institutional investors that are looking
to buy stakes in cities like Noida, Pune and Mumbai. We
can see signs of recovery in the residential market
leading to an assertive scenario for buyers and
developers alike going forward.
4. Colliers Quarterly Q3 2016
MUMBAI | RESIDENTIAL
02 November 2016
QOQ increase in
launches indicate
a positive outlook
Uttara Nilawar | Manager | Mumbai
A marked increase in the number of new launches
denotes a favourable outlook for the Mumbai
residential market. With several redevelopment
projects on the cards, we expect upcoming launches
to fill in the gaps in mid-end housing demand.
Forecast at a glance
Demand
High demand for mid-end affordable
housing should prevail
Supply
Developers who have held off to take
advantage of the festive season shall
launch new projects soon
Capital Values
Overall stable outlook; however, large
ticket sized apartments may witness a
marginal decline
Rental Rate
Rentals for high end properties shall
decline marginally due to restricted
budget of corporates and MNCs
Construction
Several construction projects may get
stalled due to delay in approvals
Number of new launches almost
doubled since last quarter
The Mumbai market witnessed improved sentiments and
increase in the number of new unit launches this quarter.
A quarter-on-quarter (QOQ) increase of around 70%
was observed with a little less than 7,000 units launched,
increasing the total number of units to 17,300 for 2016.
High end and luxury residential developments
constituted almost 70% of the unit launches in suburban
Mumbai. Mid end developments mostly prevailed in Navi
Mumbai where homes are comparatively affordable.
Almost 50-60% of the resale inventory in South Mumbai
remains unsold this quarter despite the decrease in sale
prices.
The Thane market dominated with 41% of share in unit
launches, followed by Western and Central suburbs with
19% of units launched in Goregaon, Andheri, Ghatkopar,
Chembur, and Powai. These locations were followed by
Navi Mumbai (12%), Central Mumbai (7%) and South
Mumbai (2%)
Market Trends
Micro Markets
Capital Values
(INR Per Sq Ft)
QOQ%
Change
YOY%
Change
South Mumbai 47,500 - 68,500 0% -1%
Worli 46,600 - 58,000 0% 0%
Prabhadevi 46,000 - 55,000 0% -1%
Bandra 29,000 - 52,400 -1% 1%
Khar 26,000 - 35600 -1% 1%
Santacruz 24,500 - 29,500 0% 3%
Juhu 27,000 - 32,000 0% 2%
Andheri 19,000 - 22,000 0% -2%
Powai 20,000 - 27,800 0% 4%
Thane 7,000 - 12,000 -5% -
Navi Mumbai –
Prime Areas
9,000 - 20,000 0% -
Navi Mumbai –
Emerging Areas
5,500 - 10,500 7% -
Source: Colliers International India Research
Note: Above values represent indicative selling price for premium
properties in secondary market
6. Colliers Quarterly Q3 2016
GURGAON | RESIDENTIAL
02 November 2016
Sentiment to
remain cautious
Parul Bhargawa | Senior Analyst | Gurgaon
Residential sales activities continue to sputter, with a
handful of new launches even during the festive
season. We expect demand should continue to be
driven by end users and remain skewed towards
completed projects at least in the short term. Mid-end
luxury segment products are likely to see more
demand from the growing number of working
executives in the city.
Forecast at a glance
Demand
Demand should remain concentrated in
micro markets with ready supply
Supply
Number of new launches should remain
restricted as developers will focus on
completion of existing projects
Capital Values
Should remain stable across micro
markets due to reduced transaction
volumes
Rental Rate
Should remain stable in most of the
micro markets
Construction
Construction should pick up pace as
heightened consumer activism and
litigation is putting pressure on
developers to deliver projects on time
Investors remain at bay; few new
launches in mid-end segment
In the third quarter of 2016, sales in the primary market
remained weak, despite the start of the festive season.
In view of the reduced demand, the city has witnessed
the launch of about 1,700 new units this quarter, taking
the YTD total to a little over 3,280 units. Most of the new
projects were located in new sectors developing along
Sohna Road and catering to the mid-luxury segment.
These projects include “Azalia” by Supertech Developers
and “Siera 68” by M3M developers both located in sector
68, Sohna Road. AIPL Developers launched its mixed-
use development project in Sector 66 with serviced
apartments on the upper floors. Apart from this, Sobha
Developers also launched the first phase of Sobha City
Dwarka Expressway, which offered 2 and 3 BHK at a
basic selling price in the range of INR 7,955 to 8,400 per
sq ft.
The secondary market gained some traction for ready to
occupy properties. Tulip Infratech offered possession of
Phase 1 of Tulip Violet project located in Sector 69,
Sohna Road. This quarter, a few high value sale
transactions, and corporate lease deals were concluded
in super luxury projects such as DLF Aralias and
Magnolias, which are located along Golf Course Road.
Market Trends
Micro Markets
Capital Values
(INR Per Sq
Ft)
QOQ%
Change
YOY%
Change
Golf Course Road 11,000–36,000 0% 0%
Sohna Road &
Golf Course
Extension
6,000-14,000 5% 9%
DLF Phase 1 11,000-13,000 0% 0%
Sushant Lok 14,000-18,000 -2% 7%
NH-8 10,500-18,000 2% 0%
Source: Colliers International India Research
Note: Above values represent indicative selling price for premium
properties in secondary market
8. Colliers Quarterly Q3 2016
NOIDA | RESIDENTIAL
02 November 2016
Developers
seeking alternative
funding options
Parul Bhargawa | Senior Analyst | Gurgaon
We expect sales in secondary market in Noida to pick
up in the coming quarters as a number of projects are
on the verge of completion in the next six months. In
the primary market, demand shall remain skewed
towards projects of reputed developers with track
record of delivering projects on time.
Forecast at a glance
Demand
Should pick up in the upcoming festive
season underpinned by lucrative offers
and innovative payment plans
Supply
Number of new launches should come
up primarily in mid and luxury segment
by a few national level builders
Capital Values
Shall remain stagnant in most of the
micro markets in the short term
Rental Rate
Shall remain stable in most of the micro
markets due to increase in supply
Construction
Should pick up pace as consumer
activism and government intervention
are pushing developers to seek
alternative financing modes and deliver
delayed projects.
New launches remain concentrated
at Expressway and greater Noida
The residential market showed early signs of revival with
approximately 4,000 new unit launches in Q3 2016. Most
of these projects were launched in newly developing
sectors along Noida Expressway and greater NOIDA.
Despite the fact that most of the demand is in mid-end
segment, this quarter we witnessed launch of a luxury
project in Sector 124 located along Noida-Greater Noida
Expressway. The project was launched by ATS and
Logix Developers that offer 4 and 6 BHK apartments at a
basic selling price of INR 12,000 per sq ft. This makes it
the most expensive project launched in this year so far.
Besides this, Antriksh Group launched a residential
project in Sector 150 offering villas, 2, 3 and 4 BHK
units. Beside this, a couple of projects were launched in
greater Noida West and Yamuna Expressway.
In order to lure buyers during the festive season
developers offered attractive subvention schemes,
discounts, payment plans such as no EMI until
possession, free parking, and gold coins. However,
buyers remained cautious in their approach and were
selecting projects from developers with proven track
record of project deliveries and quality.
Market Trends
Micro Markets
Capital Values
(INR Per Sq
Ft)
QOQ%
Change
YOY%
Change
Sector 44 7,400 - 9,500 0% -16%
Sector 92,93 6,500 – 9,500 -6% 3%
Sector 50 6500 - 8000 0% -1%
Sector 61,62 5,800 – 6,200 0% -3%
Sector 28,29,37 7,500–9,500 0% 0%
Sector 70 to 79 4,300-5,500 -1% 8%
Source: Colliers International India Research
Note: Above values represent indicative selling price for premium
properties in secondary market
10. Colliers Quarterly Q3 2016
BENGALURU | RESIDENTIAL
02 November 2016
Steady demand
amidst cautious
buyer sentiment
Divya Grover | Senior Manager | Bengaluru
Despite momentary civil unrest and the municipal
corporation’s drive to regularise construction, we are
hopeful that the mid-end segment should continue to
drive sales as the festive season approaches with
developers offering various freebies and attractive
payment plans amidst a soft home loan interest rates
environment.
Forecast at a glance
Demand
Should improve as builders are
introducing lucrative deals to lure fence
sitters
Supply
Oversupply situation in the primary
market to continue in the upcoming
quarter
Capital Values
Should rationalize across micro
markets barring far off northern
peripherals which may see slight
appreciation
Rental Rate
Likely to hold steady across micro
markets
New project launches plunge
During Q3 2016, Bengaluru noted nearly 4,300 new unit
launches, totalling to about 21,800 new units YTD. The
city witnessed about 63% QOQ decrease in new
launches. This dip in the new launches was primarily
attributed to the momentary civil unrest over Kaveri
water issue between the state of Karnataka and Tamil
Nadu. Also, many projects could not initiate construction
and remained in the pre-launch stage due to delays in
getting necessary approvals from government
departments in the wake of Bruhat Bengaluru
Mahanagar Palike‘s (BBMP) recent city wide initiative to
tackle the encroachment of storm water drains
(rajkaluves) and the lake beds.
With end user affordablity being the prime criteria,
almost 96% new unit launches were restricted to the
mid-end segment barring the launch of a high-end
apartment complex in the residential neighbourhood of
J.P. Nagar. Of the total new units launched, Hope Farm
Junction (25%), Whitefield (20%) and Hennur Road
(15%) emerged as the top three locations garnering
maximum launches. Other peripheral locations such as
Banashankari 6th stage, Kanakpura Road and
Bannerghatta Road together accounted for rest of the
share.
Market Trends
Micro Markets
Capital Values
(INR Per Sq Ft)
QOQ%
Change
YOY%
Change
Central 21,000-31,000 4% 8%
Cooke Town 7,700-15,000 6% 6%
Jayanagar 8,700-10,700 2% 2%
Sadashivanagar 9,200-15,200 2% 2%
Airport Road 8,800-11,200 3% 11%
Indiranagar 8,200-13,000 1% 6%
Bannerghatta
Road
4,700-8,700 -1% 3%
Kormangala 6,800-10,700 -3% 3%
Whitefield 4,400-8,700 -3% 3%
Yelahanka 4,200-10,200 3% -4%
Source: Colliers International India Research
Note: Above values represent indicative selling price for premium
properties in secondary market
12. Colliers Quarterly Q3 2016
CHENNAI | RESIDENTIAL
02 November 2016
End-user demand
revival in the offing
Divya Grover | Senior Manager | Bengaluru
Given a sizeable number of new launches and stable
end-user demand for residential products in the 2 and
2.5 BHK configurations for the affordable and mid-
segment, we expect the primary residential market to
continue its revival as the festive season approaches.
Forecast at a glance
Demand
Shall revive for mid-segment products
with above mentioned ticket sizes
Supply
Steady inflow of new launches shall
continue albeit at a slow pace
Capital Values
May remain steady across micro
markets. However, some high-end
locations may witness marginal price
dip
Rental Rate
Likely to remain stable till the end of the
year due to current availabilities
Construction
Developers to remain focused on
current completions
New launches remain stable
In Q3 2016, nearly 2,300 new residential units were
launched in the primary market; a marginal uptick of 2%
over the previous quarter which took the YTD total to
about 5,500 units. As the end-user preference is skewed
towards mid-segment products, we noted more than
62% units being launched in this segment in the current
quarter. The central government’s efforts to promote and
incentivize construction of affordable housing has
spurred the supply in this segment and Chennai
witnessed about 31% new launches in this segment in
this quarterly review. However, due to a lull in demand
for high-end segment products where current price
points are largely outside the affordability bracket of
buyers, only 7% new units were launched in this
segment.
Avadi (31%), Anna Nagar (15%), Vanagaram (14%),
Egattur (11%) and Singaperumalkoil (9%) witnessed the
maximum number of new launches. Other locations such
as GST Road, Mount Road, Medavakkam and
Vengaivasal together constituted the remaining 20% of
new unit launches as some small projects with less than
100 units were launched at these locations.
Market Trends
Micro Markets
Capital Values
(INR Per Sq
Ft)
Q0Q%
Change
YOY%
Change
Boat Club 26,000-35,000 0% 0%
Nungambakkam 19,000-26,000 0% -2%
Alwarpet 18,500-26,000 0% -3%
Besant Nagar 13,500-17,500 0% -2%
Adyar 13,000-17,000 0% 0%
Anna Nagar 13,500-17,000 0% 3%
T. Nagar 13,500-20,500 0% 5%
Velachery 7,000-10,000 0% 3%
Sholinganallur 4,800-5,950 0% -4%
Siruseri 3,990-5,500 0% -10%
Source: Colliers International India Research
Note: Above values represent indicative selling price for premium
properties in secondary market
14. Colliers Quarterly Q3 2016
PUNE | RESIDENTIAL
02 November 2016
Residential market
aims to comeback
Uttara Nilawar | Manager | Mumbai
In spite of the decrease in the number of launches
this quarter, prospects look favourable for the Pune
residential market. Developers are moving their focus
towards mid-end and affordable segment projects to
tap into the existing demand among buyers. Inquiries
from investors and homebuyers alike are on the rise,
signalling a recovery across the Pune micromarkets
Forecast at a glance
Demand
Healthy demand for ready to move in
and near possession properties shall
continue
Supply
New launches on the slowdown due to
unsold stock but substantial new supply
is expected in the mid-end segment
Capital Values
Overall stable outlook but capital values
may rise for select micro markets in the
short term
Rental Rate
Rents set to remain stable despite
robust demand due to continual supply
addition
Construction
Increase in input costs may push prices
upwards and cause constraints resulting
in construction delays
Healthy demand among end users
kept market active
Pune remained one of the better performing residential
markets in the country in terms of residential sales and
new launches. Information Technology, education, and
manufacturing companies offering significant
employment opportunities kept the end user demand
active in the city. There was about 2% quarter-on-
quarter (QOQ) increase in the number of units launched
this quarter with little over 5,700 units, making it about
12,900 so far in 2016. Most projects launched were in
the range of INR 50-70 lakhs (INR 5 - 7 million) catering
to mid-end segment offering spacious configurations to
match the widespread demand dynamics.
More than half of the unit launches were in Northwest
Pune (57%) primarily at Hinjewadi and Baner locations.
Peripheral locations such as Bavdhan and Bhugaon in
the west comprised 25% of the unit launches, while 16%
of the launches were concentrated in Keshavnagar,
Wagholi, and 2% in Kharadi. Baner, Hinjewadi and
Kharadi have emerged as favoured residential
catchments due to the adjoining employment hubs.
Market Trends
Micro Markets
Capital Values
(INR Per Sq
Ft)
QOQ%
Change
YOY%
Change
Kalyani
Nagar/Viman
Nagar/Kharadi
5,800 - 14,500 -9% -13%
Deccan/Camp/ Boat
Club
7,000 - 15,000 0% -4%
Magarpatta/
Hadapsar
4,800 - 8,000 2% 2%
Baner/Hinjewadi/Wa
kad/Pashan
5,000 - 9,500 1% 1%
Kothrud/Bavdhan/W
ajre
7,000 - 12,000 4% 4%
NIBM/Undri/
Kondhwa
4,400 - 6,250 0% -5%
Pimpri/Chinchwad/C
hakan
4,700 - 5,800 0% -4%
Source: Colliers International India Research
The above values represent indicative selling price for premium
properties in secondary market