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SINK OR SWIM;
A SECTOR-SPECIFIC FOCUS
Singapore’s Resilience & Rebound Ranking of Core
Industries & Implications for Real Estate Sectors
RICK
THOMAS
Head of Occupier
Services
Colliers International
JEROME
WRIGHT
Sr. Director, Capital Markets
Colliers International
HARJONO
SUTANTO
Regional Head, Project Mgt &
Real Estate
Alcon
PHILLIP
DUNN
Director, Workplace
APAC Netflix
FRANK TZE
WEI NG
Exec. Director, Transactions
Southeast Asia | PGIM Real
Estate
WEI LENG
TANG
Managing Director
Colliers International
TRICIA
SONG
Head of Research
Colliers International
MODERATOR: RESEARCH BY: PANELLISTS:
LIVE WEBINAR 29 MAY // Q+A
We rank seven core trade sectors based on three metrics:
1 - GDP growth
2 - Stock index returns
3 - Earnings outlook
SINK OR SWIM: A SECTOR SPECIFIC
FOCUS
Source: Colliers International, Bloomberg, Singstat
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
FTSE APAC ex JP Index returns (LHS) GDP growth (RHS)
YOYYOY
FTSE APAC ex-Japan index returns lead GDP growth by up to one year
(1) and (2) over three previous crises: AFC in
1997-1998, SARS in 2002-2003, and GFC
in 2008-2009
Earnings growth ROE
Technology 24.3% 9.3%
Manufacturing 19.0% 10.1%
Hospitality 16.8% 9.1%
Real Estate1 11.4% 8.5%
Construction 10.4% 4.6%
Financial Services 8.1% 8.5%
Retail 2.9% 7.4%
Average annual earnings growth and ROE for next three years
Source: Source: Colliers International, Simply Wall St. Forecasts as of 30 April 2020.
1 Proxy for professional services
SINK OR SWIM: A SECTOR SPECIFIC FOCUS
Source: Colliers International Singapore Research, Singstat, S&P, Simply Wall St
1. Manufacturing
2. Technology
3. Hospitality
4. Retail
5. Construction
6. Financials
7. Professional Services
SINK OR SWIM: A SECTOR SPECIFIC FOCUS
Source: Colliers International Singapore Research, Singstat, S&P, Simply Wall St
1. Manufacturing
- Contract in near term due to supply chain disruption, strong
rebound to benefit business parks, hi-specs industrial
properties
2. Technology
- Fastest earnings growth over the next three years
- Main driver for office demand, logistics warehouses, data
centres
3. Hospitality
- Large impact today with sharp rebound forecast
- Strong tourism to boost hotels and hospitality
THREE SWIMMING SECTORS TO WATCH
SINK OR SWIM;
A SECTOR-SPECIFIC FOCUS
Singapore’s Resilience & Rebound Ranking of Core
Industries & Implications for Real Estate Sectors
RICK
THOMAS
Head of Occupier
Services
Colliers International
JEROME
WRIGHT
Sr. Director, Capital Markets
Colliers International
HARJONO
SUTANTO
Regional Head, Project Mgt &
Real Estate
Alcon
PHILLIP
DUNN
Director, Workplace
APAC Netflix
FRANK TZE
WEI NG
Exec. Director, Transactions
Southeast Asia | PGIM Real
Estate
WEI LENG
TANG
Managing Director
Colliers International
TRICIA
SONG
Head of Research
Colliers International
MODERATOR: RESEARCH BY: PANELLISTS:
LIVE WEBINAR 29 MAY // Q+A

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Preview: Sink or Swim - Resilience and Rebound Ranking | Colliers Research Radar Report - Singapore

  • 1. SINK OR SWIM; A SECTOR-SPECIFIC FOCUS Singapore’s Resilience & Rebound Ranking of Core Industries & Implications for Real Estate Sectors RICK THOMAS Head of Occupier Services Colliers International JEROME WRIGHT Sr. Director, Capital Markets Colliers International HARJONO SUTANTO Regional Head, Project Mgt & Real Estate Alcon PHILLIP DUNN Director, Workplace APAC Netflix FRANK TZE WEI NG Exec. Director, Transactions Southeast Asia | PGIM Real Estate WEI LENG TANG Managing Director Colliers International TRICIA SONG Head of Research Colliers International MODERATOR: RESEARCH BY: PANELLISTS: LIVE WEBINAR 29 MAY // Q+A
  • 2. We rank seven core trade sectors based on three metrics: 1 - GDP growth 2 - Stock index returns 3 - Earnings outlook SINK OR SWIM: A SECTOR SPECIFIC FOCUS Source: Colliers International, Bloomberg, Singstat -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% FTSE APAC ex JP Index returns (LHS) GDP growth (RHS) YOYYOY FTSE APAC ex-Japan index returns lead GDP growth by up to one year (1) and (2) over three previous crises: AFC in 1997-1998, SARS in 2002-2003, and GFC in 2008-2009
  • 3. Earnings growth ROE Technology 24.3% 9.3% Manufacturing 19.0% 10.1% Hospitality 16.8% 9.1% Real Estate1 11.4% 8.5% Construction 10.4% 4.6% Financial Services 8.1% 8.5% Retail 2.9% 7.4% Average annual earnings growth and ROE for next three years Source: Source: Colliers International, Simply Wall St. Forecasts as of 30 April 2020. 1 Proxy for professional services SINK OR SWIM: A SECTOR SPECIFIC FOCUS
  • 4. Source: Colliers International Singapore Research, Singstat, S&P, Simply Wall St 1. Manufacturing 2. Technology 3. Hospitality 4. Retail 5. Construction 6. Financials 7. Professional Services SINK OR SWIM: A SECTOR SPECIFIC FOCUS
  • 5. Source: Colliers International Singapore Research, Singstat, S&P, Simply Wall St 1. Manufacturing - Contract in near term due to supply chain disruption, strong rebound to benefit business parks, hi-specs industrial properties 2. Technology - Fastest earnings growth over the next three years - Main driver for office demand, logistics warehouses, data centres 3. Hospitality - Large impact today with sharp rebound forecast - Strong tourism to boost hotels and hospitality THREE SWIMMING SECTORS TO WATCH
  • 6. SINK OR SWIM; A SECTOR-SPECIFIC FOCUS Singapore’s Resilience & Rebound Ranking of Core Industries & Implications for Real Estate Sectors RICK THOMAS Head of Occupier Services Colliers International JEROME WRIGHT Sr. Director, Capital Markets Colliers International HARJONO SUTANTO Regional Head, Project Mgt & Real Estate Alcon PHILLIP DUNN Director, Workplace APAC Netflix FRANK TZE WEI NG Exec. Director, Transactions Southeast Asia | PGIM Real Estate WEI LENG TANG Managing Director Colliers International TRICIA SONG Head of Research Colliers International MODERATOR: RESEARCH BY: PANELLISTS: LIVE WEBINAR 29 MAY // Q+A

Editor's Notes

  1. 1. Manufacturing Pharmaceuticals and consumer goods, strongest GDP rebound (+33.8% in 2010) and second highest stock returns (+86% in 2009) and future earnings growth (+19%)  2. Technology Second highest GDP growth resilience, top index stock returns (+102.5% in 2009), strongest 3-year average annual earnings growth (24.3%) 3. Hospitality Most volatile sector, earnings growth expected to be the third strongest (+16.8%)  4. Retail Fairly resilient in the past, acceleration of ecommerce, offline retail has lowest annual earnings growth for next three years (+2.9%)