1.
© OECD/IEA 2018
2018 ASEAN Ministers of Energy Meeting
Singapore, 29 October 2018
IEA
Dr. Fatih Birol, Executive Director, IEA

2.
© OECD/IEA 2018
The global energy context
• The rise in energy prices has not been good news during a difficult period
for the global economy
• Three large-scale transformations in global energy set the scene:
- The United States is turning into the undisputed global leader for oil & gas
- Solar PV is on track to be the cheapest source of new electricity in many countries
- The future is electrifying, spurred by cooling, electric vehicles & digitalisation
• The future of global energy markets will be shaped by Southeast Asia
along with China & India

3.
© OECD/IEA 2018
Southeast Asia to add ‘another Japan’ to global energy demand over the next two decades, with implications
for global energy markets and trade flows
The global energy landscape is shifting – ASEAN to play a leading role
Change in energy demand, 2016-40 (Mtoe)
India
1 005
420
Southeast
Asia
China
790
United States
-30
Japan
-50
Europe
-200
270Central and
South America
485
Africa
135 Eurasia
480
Middle
East

4.
© OECD/IEA 2018
100
200
300
400
500
2000 2016 2025 2040
Coal (Mtce)
Growing risks to ASEAN’s energy security
Fossil fuel production and demand to 2040
Production Demand
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2016 2025 2040
Gas (bcm)Oil (mb/d)
2000 2016 2025 2040
2
4
6
10
8
Southeast Asia is set to become a net importer of oil, gas and coal,
increasing vulnerability to price volatility and raising energy security concerns

5.
© OECD/IEA 2018
Generation
46%
Transmission &
Distribution
54%
The ASEAN challenge: Mobilizing power sector investment
Total cumulative power sector investment in Southeast Asia to 2040
Southeast Asia needs power sector investment of $1.25 trillion to 2040 – this is equivalent to around $50
billion per year on average, twice the current level

6.
© OECD/IEA 2018
The IEA is assisting ASEAN power system integration
Regional power system integration will enhance electricity security, boost economic growth & speed-
up renewables deployment; The IEA is helping based on global best practices

7.
© OECD/IEA 2018
Energy efficiency: The case of air conditioning in ASEAN
Air conditioners represent the largest source of electricity demand growth in ASEAN; Today, 15% of ASEAN households
have air conditioners compared to 90% in Japan and the US, signaling significant scope for growth
Share of final electricity demand growth to 2040 in ASEAN countries
Cooling
35%
Lighting and appliances
21%
Other buildings
11%
Industry 26%
Other
7%

8.
© OECD/IEA 2018
Based on IEA data, CO2 emissions are on track to rise for a second year in a row, after remaining flat for the
three previous years
Global energy-related CO2 emissions
Global emissions are set to increase in 2018 – again
CO2 emissions
Increase in 2017
5
10
15
20
25
30
35Gt CO2

9.
© OECD/IEA 2018
Concluding remarks
• High oil prices are hurting consumers and could have adverse implications for producers
• The emergence of a competitive, global gas market with the rise of LNG provides
opportunities for both importers and exporters in Southeast Asia
• Energy investment is a critical issue in Southeast Asia – particularly in power due to
demand growth, sustainability challenges and need for regional power integration
• Renewables & energy efficiency can help reduce air pollution, CO2 emissions and energy
imports, but need best-practice policies for cost reductions and to accelerate deployment
• The IEA is assisting ASEAN Member States tackle energy challenges, including through
initiatives in 2019 on power system integration and air-conditioner efficiency

10.
© OECD/IEA 2018
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