23. 2019 in Review – Global Markets 2019 vs 2018
S&P 500
31.5%
22.8%
27.7%
19.8%
18.6%
2.3%
7.1%
3.0%
13.3%
14.5%
14.3%
8.6%
13.1%
6.1%
0.3%
34.5%
18.3%
-0.9%
-5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0%
U.S.
Canada
Europe
Asia-Pacific
Emerging Markets
Treasury bills
Treasuries
German Bunds
EM sovereign dollar
U.S. investment-grade
U.S. high-yield
U.S. leveraged loans
EM dollar bonds
European i-grade
European high-yield
WTI crude
Gold
Industrial metals
-8.9%
-4.4%
-10.3%
-13.1%
-14.3%
1.9%
0.9%
2.4%
-4.2%
-2.5%
-2.1%
0.4%
-1.9%
-6.3%
-8.2%
-24.8%
-1.6%
-18.1%
-30.0% -25.0% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0%
World
U.S.
Europe
Asia-Pacific
Emerging Markets
Treasury bills
Treasuries
German Bunds
EM sovereign dollar
U.S. investment-grade
U.S. high-yield
U.S. leveraged loans
EM dollar bonds
European i-grade
European high-yield
WTI crude
Gold
Industrial metals
24. 2019 in Review – 10 Year Global Markets vs Luxury Index (Knight Frank)
S&P 500
13.5%
6.9%
8.7%
6.6%
4.0%
0.6%
3.1%
3.6%
6.7%
5.5%
7.6%
5.0%
6.3%
2.3%
5.4%
-2.1%
3.3%
-1.8%
-5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0%
U.S.
Canada
Europe
Asia-Pacific
Emerging Markets
Treasury bills
Treasuries
German Bunds
EM sovereign dollar
U.S. investment-grade
U.S. high-yield
U.S. leveraged loans
EM dollar bonds
European i-grade
European high-yield
WTI crude
Gold
Industrial metals
-3.5%
5.0%
5.1%
7.2%
7.4%
9.2%
9.4%
11.2%
11.3%
20.4%
-5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
25. 2019 in Review – S&P 500
S&P 500
Monetary
policy
Trade War
26. S&P 500
East
16 Teams
Duke #1
West
16 Teams
Gonzaga #1
South
16 Teams
Virginia #1
Midwest
16 Teams
North Carolina
#1
F
I
N
A
L
F
O
U
R
F
I
N
A
L
F
O
U
R
National
Championship
Virginia
27. ??? ???
1. Phase One Holds
4. Phase One Falters
2. Tariffs Lowered
3. Trade War Europe
1. Trump Re-Elected
4. Biden Elected
2. Bernie Elected
3. Bloomberg Elected
1. Slow Recovery
4. Strong Growth
2. China Recession
3. Recession
1. On Hold
???
4. Negative Rates
2. More Cuts
3. Raises Rates
Trade War
US Election
Global
Growth
The Fed
28. S&P 500
US
China
Trade
War
2020 Outlook – US/China Trade Deal
WSJ – Jan 17, 2020
Tariff Relief
• Cut in half 15% on $120 B
• Postpone 15% on $160 B
Tariffs still in effect
• 7.5% on $120 B
• 25% on $250 B
1. Phase One Holds
4. Phase One Falters
2. Tariffs Lowered
3. Trade War Europe
1. Phase One Holds
1. Phase One Holds
2. Tariffs Lowered
29. Evaluation Phase One
- After US election
Phase Two
Industrial Subsidies
- After US Election
S&P 500
From 2017
US increases from 9%
to 17% Share of
Chinese imports
WSJ – Jan 16, 2020
2020 Outlook – US/China Trade Deal
+$78 billion
+$32 billion
+$52 billion
+$38 billion
30. 2020
US
Election
RBC Capital Markets
The Mood of the Market
Dec 17, 2019
Do you think Trump will win
the White House in the 2020
election?
2020 Outlook – US Election
March2019Survey
June2019Survey
September2019Survey
December2019Survey
1. Trump Re-Elected
1. Trump Re-Elected
1. Trump Re-Elected
4. Biden Elected
2. Bernie Elected
3. Bloomberg Elected
2. Bernie Elected
Since 1900 only three incumbent presidents have lost re-election in past
100 years: Herbert Hoover, Jimmy Carter, HW Bush
All 10 who have sought re-election without recession have won
Gallup Feb 2020 poll: 63% back Trump’s handling of the economy.
Highest in 20 years.
However, in past 30 years only 2 presidents have won by more than 4%
31. 2020 Outlook – US Election
The RBC Macroscope – Jan 6, 2020 Strategas – Feb 19, 2020
Washington Post
Sanders spending plan, $51 trillion over 10 years
• WSJ, up to $97.5 trillion
32. S&P 500
2020 Outlook – Global Economy
RBC Capital Market 2020New Year Preview Global Macro - Jan 20, 2020
1. Slow Recovery
1. Slow Recovery
1. Slow Recovery
4. Strong Growth
2. China Recession
3. Recession
Global
Economy
2. China Recession
33. S&P 500
McKinsey – China Brief: The State of the Economy
Intentional reduction in Credit Growth
Credit Growth Less than Nominal GDP GrowthWSJ – Jan 17, 2020
2020 Outlook – Global Economy
Credit growing faster than GDP
34. 3. Raises Rates
2020 Outlook – The Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy
U.S. M2 Money Stock (YoY%, LHS)
U.S. Fed Funds Target Rate (YoY, RHS)
Fed Raised
9 times
4 times in 2018
2019
Cut
3 times
Money Supply rises
Powell
Pivot
1. On Hold
1. On Hold
1. On Hold
4. Negative Rates
2. More Cuts
3. Raises Rates
The Fed
2. More Cuts
35. 2020 Outlook – The Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy
U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure Core Price
36. 2020 Outlook – The Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy
U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure Core Price
PCE Core Price Index
37. 1. Phase One Holds 1. Fed On Hold
1. Phase One Holds
4. Phase One Falters
2. Tariffs Lowered
3. Trade War Europe
1. Phase One Holds
1. Trump Re-Elected
1. Trump Re-Elected
1. Phase One Holds
1. Trump Re-Elected
4. Biden Elected
2. Bernie Elected
3. Bloomberg Elected
1. Slow Recovery
1. Slow Recovery
1. Slow Recovery
4. Strong Growth
2. China Recession
3. Recession
1. On Hold
1. On Hold
1. On Hold
1. Fed On Hold
4. Negative Rates
2. More Cuts
3. Raises Rates
Trade War
US Election
Global
Growth
The Fed
2. Tariffs Lowered
2. Bernie Elected 2. More Cuts
2. China Recession
2. Bernie Elected
2. Tariffs Lowered 2. China Recession
2. More Cuts
2. Bernie
Elected
2. Global
Recession
38. 2020 Outlook – COVID–19 & Global Growth (Morgan Stanley)
Containment by March
China normalizes by end of March
Global GDP: 2.5% Q1(from 2.9%)
US GDP: Q1 Weakens relative to 1.7%
China: Q1 4.2% but Q2 6.0%
Fed - On Hold
New Geographies & into Q2
Peaks in Q2, production disruption Q2
Global GDP: 2.4% 1H2020
US GDP: 1H2020 near stall speed
China: Q1 3.8% but Q4 6.4%
Fed – 25 bps cut 2Q 2020
Persisting into Q3, rising recession risk
All large economies impacted
Global GDP: 1Q-3Q20 weak
US GDP: 1H20 close to zero, Q3 soft p/u
China: Q1 3.5% but Q4 6.1%
Fed – 125 bps cuts by Q320
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
RBC Strategy Spotlight (Feb 27, 2020)
Correction
(SARS, 9/11)
– 10% from 2020 High
Recession
– 24-32% from 2020 High
Growth Scare
(2H 2018)
– 14-20% from 2020 High
40. S&P 500Business Insider – Dec 4, 2019
WSJ – Aug 29, 2019
2021 & Beyond – US China Decoupling
Bloomberg – Feb 14, 2020
Nancy Pelosi agrees with Trump on threat posed by
Huawei technology “I tell you, unequivocally and
without hesitation, be very careful when you go down
this path unless you want to end up with a society like
China.”
41. S&P 500
Franklin Templeton – Rising Global Risks, Excessive Risk-Taking and Exhaustive Policies – Jan 2020
China building own
supply chain &
customers
$1 trillion in
infrastructure
spanning more than
60 countries
2021 & Beyond – US China Decoupling
5G
WSJ – Huawei
benefited from as
much as $75 billion
in state-backed
financial assistance
Helped charge 30%
less for equipment
US looking at
preventing GE JV
from selling jet
engines
US looking at
preventing China
access to Chip
technology
42. S&P 500
NY Times – Jan 28, 2019
2021 & Beyond – Inequality
NY Times – Feb 24, 2019
GDP per capita
Income
Growth of
the 1.0%
Income
growth of
the .01%
Top marginal tax
rate has been high
But average effective
tax rate constant
Income of top 10%
the “upper middle class”
43. S&P 500
NY Times – Jan 27, 2019
2021 & Beyond – Inequality
Millennials
Zero cumulative
increase in income
since 1975
Fat Cat Boomers!
44. S&P 500
Threat of Climate Change
• Economic cost of climate change
• Cost of mitigating global warming
• Implications for capital markets
2021 & Beyond – Climate Change
“You say you love your children
above all else, and yet you are
stealing their future in front of
their very eyes.”
45. S&P 500
2021 & Beyond – Climate Change (Economic Cost)
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – Long term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis
Percent Loss in GDP per capita by 2100 Abiding by the Paris Agreement Percent Loss in GDP per capita by 2100 - No Climate Change Policies
~ +1.0 °C over 85 years
GDP per capita -1.07%
-1.68%
-1.88%
-0.45 °C
-13.08%
-10.52%
-4.35%
~+3.5 °C over 85 years
GDP per capita -7.22%
46. S&P 500
2021 & Beyond – Climate Change (Cost to Mitigate)
Electrical
System
€2.4 tn
Heating
€3.20 tn
Electric
Mobility
€1.40 tn
New
Technologies
€1.20 tn
€7.1tn
The European Green Deal
• Zero net emission by 2050
• €7.1 trillion over for 30 years
Goldman Sachs – Top of Mind – Investing in Climate Change – Jan 30, 2020
US Green New Deal
• 100% renewable in 10 years
• ClearView Energy Partners:
• $2.9 trillion to make US 100% renewable power
• Nearly one year’s tax revenue
UBS:
OECD estimates more than
$90 trillion needed for
infrastructure alone to meet
Paris Climate Agreement
Global Energy Challenge
Balance the need for cheap
and reliable energy needed for
economic growth with the
damage and contribution to
climate change
47. S&P 500
2021 & Beyond – Climate Change (Implications for Capital Markets)
Goldman Sachs Credit Strategy – Bonds go green:
Benefits for issuers, no harm for investors Feb 11, 2020
Global Sustainable Investment Alliance:
Jan 2018 - More than $30 trillion invested in
sustainable
+34% Jan 2016
Jefferies White Paper – Nov, 2019
Growth of ESG investment “could” define
the next decade for Western fund
management industry
Sustainable Investing Goal:
Companies rated on their carbon emissions
Increase the cost of capital for companies
with high CO2 emissions
48. S&P 500
WSJ – Dec 9, 2019WSJ – Dec 9, 2019
Normal recession
Cut rates 500 bps
Deficit/GDP
12 months ending
Jan 2020 -4.9%
Already at
recessionary levels
2021 & Beyond – Fiscal & Monetary
Now at 175 bps
Modern Monetary Policy
• Combining monetary and fiscal policy
• Can’t go bankrupt if issue debt in your own currency
• No limit to how much debt you can issue
• Social needs determine government spending not budget
• Won’t interest rates go up? Not if Fed buys bonds (QE)
• Won’t the Fed’s money printing result in inflation? Not if economy running below capacity
• When economy running beyond capacity (inflation) – Increase taxes
49. S&P 500
WSJ – Jan 11, 2020
When will we start to feel the Bern?
BCA Research – US is moving to the left
• Led by Millennials
Green New Deal
Medicare For All
Free College Tuition
Questions:
Can politician efficiently allocate capital?
When we get inflation, will politicians react quickly?
If taxes have to increase, who will pay more?
2021 & Beyond – Fiscal & Monetary
50. REAL ESTATE
Canadian
US
Development
Global
PRIVATE MARKETS
Private Equity
Private Debt
Infrastructure
Mortgages
ALTERNATIVE
Hedge Funds
Precious Metals
FIXED INCOME
Bonds
Global Bonds
Pref. Shares
High Yield
EQUITIES
Canadian
US
Foreign
Alt Energy
Power Forward
Centre
Small Forward
Point
Guard
Shooting
Guard
51. S&P 500
Bridgewater
Associates
Ray Dalio 1975
$160 billion AUM
Build models to
systematically allocate
capital based on their
timeless view of world
and asset flows
Barron’s – No one
was better prepared
for the global
market crash
Investment Strategy– Lineup
Three Iconic Case Studies
1. US 2007-2011
2. US 1928-1937
3. Germany 1918-1924
48 other case studies over
the last 100 years
52. S&P 500
Renaissance Technologies
• Jim Simons 1982
• $75 billion AUM
• Mathematician & Cold War Code breaker
• Widely regarded as the “most secretive and
successful hedge fund of all time”
• Market inefficiencies are so complex they are in
a sense hidden in the market code
• Build computer models to identify and profit
from patterns in the market
Investment Strategy– Lineup
53. S&P 500
Fed and easy monetary
policy to dominate 2020
Equities over Bonds
Returns more moderate
Global assets over US Asset
Look to build defensive
positions
Investment Strategy– Lineup (the 6th Man)
55. BC Budget 2020
Tax Rate Changes for 2020
• Personal from 49.7% to 53.5% > $220,000 taxable income
• Eligible Dividends from 31.4% to 36.4%
• Ineligible dividends from 43% to 49%
• Capital gains from 24.85% to 26.75%
70. • 6M business with employees
• 98% with fewer than 100
• 120,000 with more than 100
employees
• Less than 3% publicly traded
By The Numbers in the U.S.
Publicly Traded
71. Less than 25% of
global stock buybacks
Average approx.$200B/year
• Patient capital
• Simpler compliance
• Partial liquidity events
• Strategic partners
78. • 2% on committed capital for five
years
• If 80% of committed funds
invested average fee is >5% /year
• Performance fees of 20%
• 1.5% on invested capital for five
years
• Offer co-invest opportunities
• Blended fee can be under 1%/yr.
• Performance fees 15%
• About 75% lower overall first five
years
Fees: Committed vs. Invested Capital
80. Significant minimum investment
5-year funding period 10-14 year
fund
Liquidity when assets sold
Investor responsible for “Dry
Powder”
Small minimums
No other capital commitment
1-3 year minimum hold
Liquidity periodically (monthly /
quarterly, annually)
Add new capital when available
Closed End vs. Evergreen Funds
81.
82. 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CapitalInvested
Time in Years
No distributions
Fewer assets
Diversified and
Cash Income
High diversification
Income – less risk
83. Co-Investments
• Much lower fees than traditional funds
• Review each investment for suitability
• Decide on amount to be invested
84. $3400
$770
Equity ($Billions) Debt ($Billions )
Less Risk
Lower Returns
Shorter Duration
Current Income
RRSP/ TFSA and
Foundation Eligible
US Private Asset Markets 2018 (Preqin)
85. 43%
Private
Core Portfolio Asset Allocation (December 2019)
Public Equities
32%
Public Fixed
Income
21%
Private
Debt/Mort.,
13%
Private Equity
4%
Real Estate
21%
Alternatives
9%
57%
Public
87. Private
Equity
15.3%
Cdn. Real
Estate
19.5%
US Real
Estate
34.5%
Value
Add Real
Estate
11.6%
Infra.
6.7%
Global
Real
Estate
12.4%
$1,000,000
$1,658,000
$658,000
$156,450
$10,070
Starting
Capital
Ending Capital
(before fees)
Gain
(before fees)
Taxable
Income
(gross )
Tax Paid
(after fees /
RDTOH)
Private Assets
How Is This Possible?
• RDTOH reduces corporate tax by 60%
• Low turnover of assets
• Depreciation creates return of capital
• Planning fees deductible
5 Year Results (2014-2019)
• Gross return before fees = 10.7%/yr
• Net return after fees = 9.7%
• Net return after taxes = 9.6%
88. Private Fixed Income
Private
Debt
32%
Mortgages6
8%
• Lower risk
• Shorter duration
• Higher liquidity
• 100% taxable income
• RRSP / IPP / TFSA / Donor
Advised Funds
• 5 year returns net of fees 4.4%
• Low rates may last a long time
Rates have fallen
since Nov 2019
89. Take My Money – Please
10 years with no interest
1,000,000 Swiss Francs
921,000 Swiss Francs
90. Private
Equity
10.5%
Mortgage
23.0%
Private
Debt
10.5%
CDN Real
Estate
12.5%
US Real
Estate
23.0%
Value Add
Real Estate
7.5%
Global
Real Estate
8.0%
Infra.
5.0%
$1,000,000
$1,579,000
$579,000
$116,000
$-
Starting
Capital
Ending
Capital
(before fees)
Gain
(before fees)
Taxable
Income
(gross)
Tax Paid
(after fees /
RDTOH)
Private Assets
How Is This Possible?
• Interest income paid into registered plans
• Other private assets have low tax turnover
• Portfolio is balanced within private assets
• Weighted cash flow 4%+ annually
5 Year Results (2014-2019)
• Gross return before fees = 9.6%/yr.
• Net return after fees = 8.6%
• Net return after taxes = 8.6%
91. Therefore, it could be somewhat misleading and biased to translate "机"
(jī) in the context of the word "危机" (wēijī) to "opportunity" instead of "a
changing point" or "a confidential event"
Are we at a changing point?
92. Lessons From This
• Planning first: portfolio design
and financial planning
• Diversify
• Cash flow matters
• Private does not = higher risk
but it does = less liquidity
• How much of your returns are
taxable?
• What can you do about that?
94. This material contains the current opinions of the author and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material is distributed for informational
purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment
advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information presented here has been obtained from sources believed to
be reliable, but not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value.
Please speak to your Nicola Wealth advisor for advice based on your unique circumstances. Nicola Wealth is registered as a Portfolio Manager, Exempt Market
Dealer and Investment Fund Manager with the required provincial securities’ commissions. This is not a sales solicitation. This investment is generally intended
for tax residents of Canada who are accredited investors. Some residency restrictions may apply. Please read the relevant documentation for additional details
and important disclosure information, including terms of redemption and limited liquidity. Effective January 1, 2019 all funds branded NWM were changed to
the fund family name Nicola.