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2. “The Future Belongs to Those Who Can See It” “Dost thou love life? Then do not squander time, for that is the stuff life is made of." Benjamin Franklin "Do not go where the path may lead. Go where there is no path and leave a trail..." Ralph Waldo Emerson, Philosopher "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic." Arthur C. Clarke "Mark my word: A combination airplane and motor car is coming. You may smile, but it will come." Henry Ford "At first, people refuse to believe that a strange new thing can be done, then they begin to hope it can be done, then they see it can be done - then it is done, and all the world wonders why it took so long." Secret Garden, Frances Hodgson Burnett "If you don't have a consensus that it is nonsense, you don't have a breakthrough." Burt Rutan, Scaled Composites "When you design your aircraft, distort the specifications to be different!“ Prof. Ed Lesher, University of Michigan, Speed Record Engineer-Pilot “The greatest obstacle to scientific progress is the illusion of complete knowledge.” Prof. Disney, Hubble Telescope Committee Those who say “It can’t be done!” should not interrupt those who are doing it. At the end of the movie, Back to the Future, Doc Brown says to Marty: "Roads? Where we're going, we don't need roads." 0
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4. The highway system is forecast to be more congested and slower, with no relief in sight. Air travellers still need to spend time to convert from one mode to another mode for local travel.
5. Proposed solution is an aircar with an optimum payload and adequate performance for a core market offrequent regional business travelers that is quicker, with lower net cost from time savings and higher production rates than current airplanes.
6. The potential marketof thousandsof operators avoiding spending millions of hours driving or changing modes may establisha billion-dollarindustry within a decade from start-up.1
7. Some Common Fallacies and Truths The common fallacies are: 1) cars are too heavy to fly; 2) "average" drivers are too dangerous to fly; the sky is too small for millions of aircars; and flyable automobiles would cost too much. The truths are: 1) StrongMobile designs are adequate for good performance; 2) licensed pilots are better trained, regulated and qualified; 3) the skies are big enough and control is adequate for hundreds of thousands of aircars; and 4) avoiding payroll and support costs of business operators vs. other travel modes offsets costs of StrongMobiles.
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9. Operators are free to choose schedules, routes, airports, destinations, and modes to suit weather, flight and traffic conditions to fit their budgets and desires. 2
10. The FAA rules show a speed limit of 250 knots when flying below 10,000 feet. StrongMobiles are designed to cruise at about 140 knots. The shortest distance between two places avoids wasting time and fuel. 2a
11. In general, you can plan your trip for various situations Plan A - VFR or IFR direct [probability of about 80%]; or Plan B - weather or TFR deviations of less than one hour [probability of about 15%]; or Plan C - deviations of more than one hour, but less than two hours [probability of about 3%]; or Plan D - Driving only [probability of about 2%], or Plan E - Airports and Roads closed [probability less than 1%], or Plan F - Aborted trip en route and overnight or more delay [probability of less than 1%]. 2b
12. Evolution of the StrongMobile Caproni-Campini fanjet 1940 Bill Stout’s Skycar 1960 Nash Airflyte 3
16. The ducted fan is quieter than a propeller; the jetwash blows on the wing to boost lift. A clutch disengages the fan for driving.
17. The wing has spoiler ailerons and full-span flaps to give angle of attack while the body is level for lifting the front for take-off.4
18. NASA Quiet Ducted Fan Study (UTRC) Noise is reduced from 105 dB to 77 dB (Ref. FAR Part 36, App. G36.301, 88 dB max.) “Neighbor-friendly” and less cabin noise fatigue. 5
19. An example of a fan by Aero Composites (NASA Personal Air Vehicle Exploration Program) The composite structure provides unlimited fatigue life. The StrongMobile fan may generate about 100 lbs. per sq. ft. of pressure over 6 sq. ft. ( 3 ft dia.) for 600 lbs. of thrust. 6
28. Primary Control System The steering wheel (1) is for driving; it is semi-stowable for flying. The center “T” stick (2) is for pitch and roll control with trim for flying. Flight throttle (3) and mic button is on left door. Road and fan gear shift (4) is for driving. Accelerator pedal and foot brake pedal (5,6) are on the floor as usual. Rudder pedals (7) are stowable for driving. 14
34. Four-seat/Cargo Version Operators may choose to use two Dragons for many jobs that require four seat capacity or use the four-seat version; however, the design and development of the four-seat version is considered to be a challenging venture. 18
37. Autogyro version For those who require a vertical take-off and landing capability, the wings may be replaced with rotary wings that may be spun up for take-off and stowed for driving.
38. Current Airplane InconveniencesMay Be Eliminated in StrongMobile expense of hangaring; handling tie-downs and chocks; tow bars and towing machines; using step-stools to check fuel quantity; using steps and handholds for entry and exit; only one cabin door, noisy, narrow cabins; steering while taxiing with foot pedals; left and right brake pedals; complex engine & propeller displays and controls; potentially lethal propeller; and need for rental cars for local transportation. 19
50. Lifting body & full-span flaps cushion landings, slats decrease risk of stall; alpha gauge; and
51. When weather turns bad or plans change, option to drive home from alternate airport , or drive to alternate airport with good weather for take-off.21
52. Automobile & Airplane Safety Many people put a priority on safety, so they look at the U. S. historical data what shows vehicles have about 1.54 fatal accidents per 100 million miles driven, as compared to 22 fatal accidents per million hours flown in "general aviation". If you figure that airplanes average 150 miles per hour, then general aviation airplanes have a rate of 14 fatal accidents per 100 million miles flown, about 1 per 7 lifetimes. So, you can conclude that driving is about 10 times safer than flying. However, flying StrongMobiles may be much safer in contrast to "general aviation", when you consider their safety features.
53. The wing slat is considered to be important because many accident investigation reports blame wing stalls during landing approach as a common cause that can be easily reduced or eliminated. The action of plain versus slatted wings is illustrated. The left diagram describes stalling action . The right diagram shows the effect of slats for reducing stall.
54. Flying vs. Driving: Safety & Efficiency Pro Quicker No impaired drivers No bad roads nor construction zones No debris or obstructions nor natural barriers No congestion or speed limits No HAZMAT trucks Con Unforecast icing Thunderstorms Turbulence and shear Fog and low ceilings Gusty cross-winds Slippery runways Nav-Comm Radios Medical Exams Flight Training 22
55. Example Hazard Report 1. SYST./SUBSYST/UNIT: Operations in fan mode with objects/ birds. 2. COMPNT. FAIL MODE: Pilot fails to see and avoid objects/ creatures in time. 3. SUBSYST.FAIL MODE: Objects ingested into fan cause damage, failure. 4. SYST./COMP./PHASE: Airport and flight operations in fan mode. 5. SYSTEM EVENT/PHAS: Taxi, take-off, and landing plus birds during cruise. 6. SYST.OPER.DESCRPN: taxi, take-off, and landing and cruise flight. 7. HAZARD DESCRIPTN.: Fan ingests objects/ creatures into fan duct. 8. HAZARD INDICATION: Objects may be seen in time for avoidance. 9. EFFECT OF HAZARD : Impact damage to fan, aircraft, various damages. 10. RISK ASSESSMENT : Potential for various failures, loss of control. 11. RECOMMENDED ACTIONS: Pilot scans ahead and avoids objects/ creatures. 12. ACTION EFFECTS : Eliminates hazard. 13. REMARKS/DOCS/DIRS: Fixed Base Operator keeps surfaces clear. 14. ACTION STATUS : TBD 15. NOTE/CAUTION/WARN: Include a WARNING in Pilot Operating Handbook. RISK WITH HAZARD = 2‑C RISK WITH ACTION = 2‑E 22a
56. Frequently Asked Questions and Answers Does a StrongMobile operator need to have a pilot’s license? Answer: Yes, plus a medical certificate, etc.. Won’t average drivers have more accidents if they fly? Answer: No. “Average” drivers likely will not qualify; medical, legal, and instructors report that 2/3 of students wash out. Won’t aircars be a danger to folks and property on the ground? Answer: Yes; there will always be some risk; less than usual. Aren’t aircars inherently too heavy, compared to airplanes? Answer: The StrongMobile designs are adequate for the specific operations that they are designed for. Can I take-off and land on public highways? Answer: NO! Consider obstructions, distractions, instrument aids, weather, and FAA rules. 23
57. Learning And Problem-Solving, LAPS, Record RECNO:1 About:Date:HazBen RecId: DB File: Rec.Id:1PrevRecId:TXT:PrsId: SS File: Col-Row:Budget Item:WrkRecId: Line / Sub-Item:Phase:Chek#: 1. Diverger/ Idea Generators choose a goal and distinguish it from Reality. a. Goals / Increase aero performance to save time and extend range b. Real Operation ____:cruise speed of 120 knots c. Suggest / Concern_ reduce aero drag 2. aSIMmilators identify factor, metric, select problem to be solved. a. Problem/ Suggest _ retract wheels b. Select-increase climb rate and cruise speed c. Select-CON _______added cost of equipment and maintenance 3. Converger/ Optimizers/ Judges consider solutions and evaluate them. a. Solution Set_______:partially retract wheels b. Evaluation use cost of 10% of fuel, $2000 per year, $2,000 to install. c. Recommendations _:mockup, weigh, and test 4. Worker/ Accomodator/ Implenters select one solution and implement it. a. Solution Selected__: b. Implementation ___ c. Recommendations_ : 23a
58. Financial Model 1 – Start-Up Development may commence whenever the trend of deposits shows confidence that sufficient deposits will be made to pay for development costs that are estimated to be around $20M. This plan will require about 1,000 deposits. Given the usual schedule required for similar airplane developments, it is estimated that about three years will be required to set up for production. Deliveries may begin ~ 2010. If you wish to reserve a position for your StrongMobile on the production schedule, then make a non-refundable deposit of $19,000 minimum to TACRA. Deposits will be put into escrow accounts as certificates of deposit until 100 are received or until the end of 2007. If 100 deposits are not received by the end of 2007, then those that have been received will be returned to the depositors. 24
59. Financial Model - 2 for 2-Seat Version The finances of the three main players in the scenario may be: Maker: Develops aircar - invests $20M @ 12% for 20 years startup; Produces 2,000 units per year at unit cost of $75,000 ( ~$150M); Produces parts for maintenance and repair and accessories; Sells units and parts for 15% net after-tax profit (~$30M); and Sets up dealer/buyer financing at 10%, earning 10%-prime of ~6%. Dealer/Lessor: Sets up sales and service, training, and leasing; Purchases X aircars for $100,000 at 10% interest for 20 years with monthly payments of ~$2,000X; Leases aircars for 1,200 hours per year, at $160 per flight hour; Pays operation and maintenance of $75/hour $7,500 per month each; Pays for facility, employees, ~$4,000 per month per each X aircar; Earns profit $16,000 - $7,500 - $2,000 - $4,000 = $2,500/month each; Performs service/maintenance/repair as required; and Operates training and building center. 25
60. Financial Model - 3 Owner/Lessee: - Owner buys on $160,000, 20-year 6% loan for $1,600 per month; or- Lessee leases for $160 per hour/ $16,000 per month to lessees; - Users average wrap-around cost plus business profit of $100 per hour for each of two, flying 6+ hrs/day, 24 hrs/ wk, 100 hrs/ month; - Cost avoidance of $200 per hour for each flight hour, based on standard mission, $20,000 per month, less $3,500 fuel, saving : $16,500 personnel - $16,000 buy/lease = $ 500/mo. cost avoidance. NOTE: Figures are for the two-seat version. For four-seat version, cost may be increased by 50% and benefits by 100%. Other factors such as prestige, business opportunities, safety, security, and control of schedule and destinations. 26
61. The Air-Car Research Association, TACRA Performance, Equipment, & Price, “PEP”, Survey Basic Dragon has SRS, A/C, power steering & brakes, ABS, transaxle, fixed-pitch fan w/ clutch, fixed wheels, and speed cruise control. Price for: a. kit: $____k b. Factory-built: $____k c. Rent/hr: $_____ If you want more, enter how much more and how much you would pay. 1. Over 10 yrs service life? Yrs; ____ Pay: $___k 2. Over 10,000 Flight hours; ____ kfh Pay: $____k 3. Over 120,000 Road Miles: _____kmi Pay: $____k 4. Four-place version Pay: $_____k 5. Over 195 lb. Pilot & passenger (s) weight?: _____ lbs. Pay: $____k 6. STOL version: $____k Anti-icing system: $___k 7. Over 66 lb. per occupant baggage weight?: ______ lbs. Pay: $____k 8. Rotary engine -Pay: $___k 9. Over 360 nm Range: _____ Pay: $____k 10. Over 140 KTAS cruise speed: _____KTAS Pay: $____k 11. Over 12,000 ft. ceiling: ____,000 ft. Pay: $_____k 12. Autopilot - Pay: $_____k 13. Retract wheels - Pay: $ ____k 14. Controllable-pitch fan: $______k 15. Cabin Press - Pay: $ ____k TACRA went inactive in 2009. 27
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63. 2007 - Design, Build, and Test Driveable Prototype; 2008 – Design, Build, and Test Flight Prototype;
66. The inventor will welcome any producers to lead the next phase of building the prototype and production versions of StrongMobiles for a market of thousands of operators avoiding millions of wasted hours of ‘windshield time’ on the highway or changing modes that could be used for more profitable activities with potential for a billion-dollar industry within a decade.28
67. Outreach Activities strongware.com/dragon Website: Over 10,000 visits per year, mostly unknown, but zero feedback. Presentations and ads to associations (EAA, SAE, AOPA, AIAA, ASME) StrongMobile Project CD and book 29
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69. Conclusion and Forecast The StrongMobile preliminary design and business plan indicate that the project is feasible for further development, production, and operation to satisfy a potential market of thousands of users. Military In response to USAF’s AGILE COMBAT SUPPORT PROGRAM Request For Information, the project was submitted for consideration by the Mobilization Analysis Working Group as a candidate for development beginning in 2010. The mission was described as a light utility personnel/cargo transport to support forward operating locations. StrongMobiles might also be employed as manned observation platforms, performing the Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance, ISR, mission, similar to the inventor's experiences as a Forward Air Controller in Cessna O-1s and Ford M-151s. The submittal envisioned a fleet of vehicles and total cost for research, development, test and evaluation, and deployment of $29 million dollars. Main questions are: Who will do it?; and When will it be done ? 30
70. DOT RITA Plan Growing congestion in U.S. transportation systems poses a substantial threat to the economy and to the quality of life of millions of Americans. In 2003 alone, congestion in the top 85 U.S. urban areas caused 3.7 billion hours of travel delay and 2.3 billion gallons of wasted fuel, for a total cost of $63 billion. Congestion also can contribute to air pollutant emissions. The Department's RD&T programs will seek to improve our quality of life and enhance economic development by reducing congestion, preserving the existing transportation system, and improving the durability and extending the life of transportation infrastructure. 30a
71. NASA Personal Air Vehicle T7.01 Personal Air Vehicle Research for Rural, Regional and Intra-Urban On-Demand Transportation NASA is performing preliminary design studies of Personal Air Vehicle missions, concepts, and technologies… Reducing small aircraft community noise by 30 PNLdb at a 500’ sideline measurement,… Reducing the aircraft acquisition cost on the order of 60% from current price levels while still at relatively modest production volumes. Simplify the operation of small aircraft such that the specialized skills, knowledge and associated training are reduced to levels comparable to operating an automobile or boat. This reduction must be achieved during near-all-weather operations and with a level of safety that is superior to comparable operations today. Mid-term and long-term efforts could also include investigation of technologies that provide improved performance and short field length takeoff and landing capability. Implicit to all these investigations will be enhancing the vehicle safety, versatility, ease of entry, interior environment, visibility, and maintenance and operations cost. 30b
72. Agile Combat Support RFI Air Force seeks new ideas for support missionsBy Sebastian Sprenger, Federal Computer Week, August 23, 2007The Air Force is looking for technologies that could help improve the service’s ability to conduct combat support operations, according to an Aug. 21 Defense Department notice published on the Federal Business Opportunities Web site. The notice said the service’s Agile Combat Support Modernization Analysis Working Group is seeking ideas from industry and academia to offset limitations on support operations Air Force officials anticipate between 2010 and 2035. These limitations include obstacles typically associated with military work in austere environments worldwide, potential force reductions and budget shortfalls, the notice said. The Air Force is particularly interested in ideas that would reduce the need for airlift in and out of future theaters, and technologies capable of cutting the number of personnel needed to initiate and support military operations. “Present combat support resources are aging and are quickly becoming obsolete,” the notice states. Officials in the Air Force’s Agile Combat Support Modernization Analysis Working Group will roll potential technologies into the deliberations on the service’s six-year spending plan starting in fiscal 2010, the document said. 31
73. The inventor at his favorite pastime of simulating driving and flying in the mockup. 32