How the Wisdom of Crowds Helped the US Navy Find a Lost Nuclear Submarine
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It was May 27, 1968. 📍⛵ 99 men went missing aboard the USS Scorpion, somewhere in the North Atlantic. Find out how an ingenious scientist named John Craven found a (nuclear) needle in a haystack by using the wisdom of crowds.
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How the Wisdom of Crowds Helped the US Navy Find a Lost Nuclear Submarine
- 1. HOW THE WISDOM OF CROWDS HELPED THE US NAVY FIND A LOST NUCLEAR SUBMARINE
- 2. It was May 27, 1968, Ninety-nine men went missing aboard the USS Scorpion (SSN-589), a 3,500-ton nuclear attack submarine. The ship was due back in Norfolk, Virginia, but was nowhere to be found.
- 3. THE NAVY ONLY HAD A VAGUE IDEA OF WHERE TO SEARCH THIS HUGE AREA
- 4. BUT ONE MAN HAD A STRANGE IDEA JOHN P. CRAVEN Chief Scientist of the Special Projects
- 5. #1 #2 #3 TO CALCULATE THE SCORPION’S LOCATION FIRST, CRAVEN IMAGINED SCENARIOS OF POSSIBLE CAUSES
- 6. THEN, HE ASSEMBLED A TEAM OF DIVERSE EXPERTS MATHEMATICIANS SUBMARINE EXPERTS SALVAGE MEN
- 7. At which speed did the Scorpion glide down to the ocean floor ? 60 knots 30 knots SPEED How likely is it a torpedo accident ? TORPEDO 100% certain 0% certain GLIDE PATH 13 km 10 km How far could the Scorpion glide until impact ? HE BROKE DOWN THE PROBLEM AND ASKED EACH EXPERT SOME TECHNICAL QUESTIONS
- 8. EXPERTS WAGERED BOTTLES OF CHIVAS REGAL WHISKY TO KEEP THINGS “INTERESTING” BETTING REAL OR FAKE MONEY, OR RISKING YOUR REPUTATION, HELPS ELLICIT HONEST RESPONSES
- 9. HE THEN COMBINED THESE INDEPENDENT ESTIMATES INTO ONE MOST PLAUSIBLE POSITION
- 10. THE SCORPION’S WRECKAGE WAS FOUND ONLY 200 METERS FROM THIS AGGREGATE GUESS
- 11. JUST LIKE CRAVEN, YOU CAN USE THE WISDOM OF CROWDS BY APPLYING 3 PRINCIPLES TO YOUR TEAMS
- 12. INDEPENDENCE OF THOUGHT IS VITAL FOR ACCURACY BECAUSE IT PRESERVES COGNITIVE DIVERSITY* * different ways of seeing the world and different problem-solving approaches
- 13. DIVERSITY OF OPINIONS INDEPENDENCE OF THOUGHT 3 CONDITIONS FOR SMART GROUPS AGGREGATION METHOD
- 14. BOOST YOUR OWN INTELLIGENCE BY USING THE BRAINS AROUND YOU Seek opinions from people you know think differently Provide incentives to think independently Do not seek consensus at all costs, be comfortable with disagreement “The enemy of intelligence is conformity, not the group itself” Emile Servan-Schreiber Hypermind Director
- 15. 3 WAYS TO COMBINE OPINIONS WEIGHTED AVERAGE MAJORITY VOTE BETTING AGGREGATION
- 16. LOOKING FOR YOUR OWN SUBMARINE ? OUR TECHNOLOGY CAN HELP SOME QUESTIONS ARE TOO COMPLEX FOR JUST ONE PERSON
- 17. STORM Uncover and prioritize your team’s most promising ideas.
- 18. PRESCIENCE Get accurate predictions, make smarter decisions. Our crowd forecasting platform turns the crowd’s wisdom into hard probabilities.