Key note presentation on Dr. Johan Rockstrom which places the water and food crisis in a wider global perspective.

1. CPWF 3rd International Forum South Africa 14th November 2011 Prof. Johan Rockström Stockholm Resilience Centre Stockholm Environment Institute The grand challenge for humanity: Water and Food in the Anthropocene

2. Growing Human Pressure [20/80 dilemma] Climate change [560/450/400 dilemma] Surprise [99/1 dilemma] Ecosystem decline [60 % loss dilemma]

5. Kummu, Ward, de Moel, Varis 2010 Environmental Research Letters

6. Water for Food needs to meet the hunger MDG

7. 11-11-18 Johan Rockström and Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre Humanity has reached a planetary saturation point A resilient biosphere the basis for humen development Climate change one interacting component of global sustainability A great transformation to global sustainability necessary, possible, and desirable

8. Resilience Water and Food in Agricultural Landscapes Global Environmental Change Global Sustainability now a prerequisite to attain the UN Millennium Development Goals Human Development

9. ” When reality is changing faster than theory suggests it should, a certain amount of nervousness is a reasonable response ” The Economist

10. Atmospheric CO 2 concentration Etheridge et al. Geophys Res 101: 4115-4128 IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

11. Northern hemisphere average surface temperature IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 Mann et al Geophys Res Lett 26(6): 759-762

12. Atmospheric N 2 O concentration IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 Machida et al Geophys Res Lett 22:2921-2925

13. Atmospheric CH 4 concentration IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 Blunier et al J Geophy Res 20: 2219-2222

14. Ozone depletion IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 JD Shanklin British Antarctic Survey

15. Natural climactic disasters IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

16. Ocean ecosystems IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 FAOSTAT 2002 Statistical database

17. Coastal zone nitrogen flux IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 Mackenzie et al 2002.

18. Tropical rainforest and woodland loss IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 Richards, the Earth as transformed by human action, Cambridge University Press

19. Domesticated land IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 Klein Goldewijk and Batties

20. Species extinctions IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 Wilson, the Diversity of Life.

21. The Planetary Response to the drivers of the Anthropocene ” the great acceleration of the human entreprise ” , Professor Will Steffen 1900 1950 2000 CO 2 , N 2 O, CH 4 concentrations Overfishing Land degradation Loss Biodiversity … .. 2010-2020

22. OECD Green Growth Report 2011 20th Century Population 4X Economic Output 22X Fossil fuel consumption 14X

23. Critical transitions or regime shifts

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27. The Resilience of the Earth System

28. Humanity ’ s 10,000 years of grace

29. … Rockström et al. 2009 Nature, 461 (24): 472-475 Global fresh- water use Transgressing safe boundaries

30. Adapted from Canadell et al., 2007 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Gt Carbon/yr land ocean atmosphere Resilience of the Earth system

31. Water Resilience - Managing Moisture Feedback

32. Australia ’ s Great Barrier Reef Sweden ’ s urban landscapes Latin America ’ s agricultural revolution Water Resilience: Turning crisis into opportunity A shift in mindset for transformation WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY Preparing the system for change Navigating the transition Building resilience of the new direction