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Modeling to Better Inform Food, Energy, and Water Policies: Country Perspective

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Modeling to Better Inform Food, Energy, and Water Policies: Country Perspective

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Presentation given by Mark W. Rosegrant, Director of the Environment and Production Technology Division of the International Food Policy Research Institute, at the Global Landscapes Forum on 16 November 2016 in Marrakesh, Morocco.

http://www.landscapes.org/

Presentation given by Mark W. Rosegrant, Director of the Environment and Production Technology Division of the International Food Policy Research Institute, at the Global Landscapes Forum on 16 November 2016 in Marrakesh, Morocco.

http://www.landscapes.org/

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Modeling to Better Inform Food, Energy, and Water Policies: Country Perspective

  1. 1. Modeling to Better Inform Food, Energy, and Water Policies: Country Perspective Mark W. Rosegrant Director, Environment and Production Technology Division International Food Policy Research Institute Global Landscape Forum IFPRI Session: Informing the policymaking landscape: From research to action in the fight against climate change and hunger November 16, 2016
  2. 2. Challenges and Responses for Modeling for Policy Impact CHALLENGES RESPONSES Asking the right questions Find out the needs and intentions of the policymakers Modeling design useful to policy- and decisionmakers Improve modeling design • Integration of biophysical-hydrology- economics • Multi-scales – local, national, regional • Consistent upscaling and downscaling across levels • Greater spatial disaggregation to address basin and sub-basin issues Information for enhanced understanding • Better description and presentation • Use of interactive models Transparency and open access Encourage transparency through open access for effective policy outreach
  3. 3. Linked modeling system for the assessment of agricultural climate change impacts on the Philippine economy
  4. 4. Cost of Climate Change in Agriculture  PhP 186 billion per year cost of climate change:  Php 41 billion from increased malnutrition  Php 145 billion in economywide losses  Climate change reduces crop productivity growth, increases food prices, and reduces food security  Large negative effects on the rest of the economy:  increased international commodity prices cause terms of trade and real exchange rate losses  reducing growth in industrial and service sectors and consumer welfare
  5. 5. Welfare impact from different adaptation strategies with and without climate effect, 2050 56.5 42.3 -2.7 127.8 118.2 81.3 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Increase rice productivity Increase irrigated area Agriculture tariff reduction Increase rice productivity Increase irrigated area Agriculture tariff reduction NFA subsidy (% change from base in 2050) No NFA subsidy (% change from base in 2050) BillionPhp/year Priv. Consumption Investment Gov. Consumption Annual absoptionTotal Welfare NFA subsidy (change from base in 2050) No NFA subsidy (change from base in 2050)
  6. 6. Philippine TIMES-CGE-IMPACT WEF Nexus Impact and Trade-offs Assessment Philippine- TIMES MODEL Philippine CGE MODEL  Electricity demand  Fossil fuel prices  Electricity production mix  Optimal energy balance Policyand investmentsfor sustainablewater, energy,and agricultural development  Economic and environmental impacts in agriculture, industry, and services  Welfare impacts by income level  Enhanced WEF security Outcomes/Impacts IMPACT MODEL
  7. 7. Reference and Alternative Policy Scenario Results Primary energy supply-mix in all scenarios for 2040 Imp. dep: 2014-40> 13.5 EJ 7.2 EJ, ↓ 47%… 7.3 EJ, ↓ 46% 2580 TWh, ↑ 40% 6.4 EJ, ↓ 53% 2580 TWh, ↑41% 10.7 EJ, ↓ 21% 2196 TWh, ↑ 20% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Ref-2040 CO2-Mit-Target Carbon Tax Coal Externality Renewable-Target Systemcostincreased(%) Resourcelevel(PJ) Biomass Coal Gas Geothermal Hydro Solar Wind System cost
  8. 8. Conclusions: Based on preliminary results  CO2-Mit-Target scenario - best option to mitigate emissions and integrate renewable energy technologies in the energy system  Dependency on imported fuel decreases in CO2-Mit-Target scenario by 47% compared to the reference scenario  This scenario contributes to an increase in the total system costs of 5.3% compared to the reference scenario  Improves energy security and helps to develop a low-carbon society
  9. 9. Conclusions  Modeling is an important tool in the development, influencing or strengthening of climate change and food security policies  Integrated biophysical-hydrological-economic modeling enhances understanding of climate change and food security  Down-scaling global models to micro-levels helps to target results and policies at the national to community levels  Building user-friendly models for hands-on scenario analysis by policy analysis country levels is beneficial  Carefully targeting output to different stakeholders can enhance policy impact
  10. 10. How to Achieve Impacts: Beyond Modeling BOUNDARY PARTNERS • Along each impact pathway - Identify who will take up and use the research results - What influence they have - What they need • Involve them as early and consistently as possible - To make sure that research addresses issues they see as relevant • Need to cut across departmental silos: e.g. Finance, Agriculture, Energy, Water DISCOURSE ANALYSIS • For each pathway, identify key phrases being used, by whom, with what values • What are “poison pills” to be avoided for farmers, practitioners, etc.? • Economics language may not be the way to convey the messages COMMUNICATIONS Work with communications people to identify • How to convey the message • Where • To whom (audience analysis) ADVOCACY COALITIONS Identify coalitions (e.g. environmental NGOs and displaced people vs government and downstream farmers on dams) • If model is to be used in helping to make decisions, at least one trusted person in each coalition needs to understand the model • Identify those coalitions and involve them in your capacity building.

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