1. THE UNFCCC POLICY LANDSCAPE
PRE LIMA
Stephen Leonard, Senior Policy Analyst โ UNFCCC
Center for International Forestry Research
20 November 2014
2. SETTING THE STAGE
Big Picture
โข Recent emissions reductions announcements
โ EU: 40% on 1990 levels by 2030
โ China: Emissions peak by 2030 / 20% zero emissions energy
by 2030
โ USA: 26 โ 28% on 2005 levels by 2025
โข Financial Pledges being made
โ Current pledges to GCF around US$9b โ target this year
of US$10 โ 15b
โข Climate in G20 Communique despite Australian block
โข However, very few Kyoto Amendment ratifications
3. SETTING THE STAGE โ FORESTS
New Climate Agreement โ Possible inclusions:
โข REDD+ Mechanism
โข REDD+ Window in the GCF
SBSTA
โข Finalizing work on Safeguards in Lima
โข Alternative Policy Approaches โ adaptation links
Finance
โข GCF Frameworks completed
โข REDD+ Results Framework agreed in Barbados
โข Standing Committee on Finance
4. THIS PRESENTATIONโฆ..
โข SBs
โ SBSTA โ Metrics / REDD+ Safeguards /
REDD+ Alternative Policy Approaches /
Clean Development Mechanism โ land
use
โ SBI - Adaptation Plans
โข New Climate Agreement โ Elements &
INDCs
โข Finance - Green Climate Fund / Standing
Committee on Finance
5. ACRONYMS
ADP: Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform
AR5: Fifth Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
BRs: Biennial Reports
BURs: Biennial Update Reports
CDM: Clean Development Mechanism
CfRN: Coalition for Rainforest Nations
COP: Conference of Parties
GCF: Green Climate Fund
GEF: Global Environment Facility
INDCs: Intended Nationally Determined Contributions
IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
JMA: Joint Mitigation Adaptation
KP: Kyoto Protocol
LUCFA: Land Use Change and Forest Activities
LULUCF: Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry
MRV: Measuring Reporting and Verification
Nat Comms: National Communications
NAMAs: Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions
NAPs: National Adaptation Plans
NAPAs: National Adaptation Programmes of Action
SBSTA: Subsidiary Body on Scientific and Technical Advice
SBI: Subsidiary Body on Implementation
SCF: Standing Committee on Finance
SIS: Safeguards Information Systems
TEM: Technical Expert Meeting
UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
WS: Work Stream
7. SBSTA 41 โ REDD+ SAFEGUARDS INFORMATION SYSTEMS
โข The โneedโ for further guidance on Safeguards Information Systems
โ Unresolved issue for the past 2+ years
โข Submissions received / compiled โ CIFOR Analyses
โ majority of submissions favor further guidance.
โ trade-offs between further guidance and the promotion of country-driven
approaches and national sovereignty.
โ need to minimize the burden for creation of and reporting on SIS.
โ civil society organizations highlighted issues around equity and
participation of local people in the process.
โ Useful guidance on how to develop a country-driven approach.
8. SBSTA 41 โ ALTERNATIVE POLICY APPROACHES TO REDD+
โข Warsaw mandate to agree at SBSTA 40 โ no agreement so put back to
Lima
โข Premised on Bolivian Proposal โ JMA and Non Markets โ alternative to
REDD carbon markets approach โ not replacement
โ Expert Meeting / Workshop held in Bonn @ SBSTA 40
โ See:
https://unfccc.int/files/methods/redd/application/pdf/bolivian_proposal_j
ma_05.06.2014.pdf
โข Debate over whether item remains under REDD or new Agenda item
โ Brazil pushing to have the item considered outside the REDD Bali
Agenda item
โ Bolivia want it to remain under REDD
9. SBSTA 41 โ CDM & LULUCF
โข CDM โ under the Kyoto Protocol
โข SBSTA 40 considered inputs from technical paper
โข Ongoing consideration in Lima of additional LULUCF areas under the CDM:
โ Revegetation including agroforestry and silvopastoral;
โ Cropland management and grazing management
โข Wetland drainage and rewettingCDM โ under the Kyoto Protocol
โข SBSTA 40 considered inputs from technical paper
โข Ongoing consideration in Lima of additional LULUCF areas under the CDM:
โ Revegetation including agroforestry and silvopastoral;
โ Cropland management and grazing management
โ Wetland drainage and rewetting
10. SBSTA 41 - METRICS
โข Provide the basis for comparing impacts in multiple GHG reduction efforts
โข Ongoing debate:
โ KP =Global Warming Potential โ others developed since 1997
โ Whether to expand to other metrics / timescales
8 different metrics in AR5 / timescales: 20, 50 and 100 years
โข Was considered in Bonn โ no agreement โ Lima
โข Brazil โ need an agreement - critical input to the ADP
โ Discussion concerning agreement on a โcommon metricโ or โbasket of
metricsโ for the new agreement
11. SBI 41 โ NATIONAL ADAPTATION PLANS
โข Much emphasis on the lack of finance:
โ new climate agreement links:
โข Finance including via GCF
โข INDCs
โข Norway calling for adaptation and forests to be discussed in NAPs context
โ Expect more focus on forests and adaptation (SCF / GCF)
โข Countries lacking understanding of technical guidance and seeking greater
clarity
13. THE DURBAN PLATFORM (ADP)
โข Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform
โข WS 1 - process to develop a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed
outcome with legal force applicable to all Parties by 2015 for implementation
by 2020
โข WS 2 - Pre 2020 - to explore options to close the ambition gap ensuring
highest possible mitigation efforts by Parties
14. PRE 2020 MITIGATION
โข TEMs โ part of the formal process:
โ Land Use / Non CO2 Emissions (agriculture)
โข Purpose:
โ To enhance pre 2020 mitigation
โ Provide guidance to UNFCCC Institutions (eg: GCF)
โข Projects / programmes to finance
โข Priority areas
โ Likely to be ongoing to up 2020
โข Possible to be broadened to include adaptation
15. PRE 2020 MITIGATION
โข TEMS: Outputs:
โ Land Use
โข REDD+ remains high on the agenda
โข high mitigation & Adaptation potential from forest and agricultural
sectors;
โข a scaling up of finance, technology and capacity building is required;
โข sectoral policies are required;
โข participatory multi-stakeholder dialogues should commence at early
stages;
See: http://unfccc.int/bodies/awg/items/8171.php
16. PRE 2020 MITIGATION
โข Non CO2 Emissions โ Agriculture
โ up to 80% of emissions from the agriculture sector could be reduced by
2030.
โข Potential policies and actions identified include
โ soil conservation;
โ soil productivity and erosion control;
โ nitrogen use efficiency;
โ rice management;
โ Research; and
โ landscape approach
See: http://unfccc.int/bodies/awg/items/8420.php
17. NEW AGREEMENT - ADAPTATION
โข Has had a clear increase in profile
โข Major emphasis on scaling up finance
โข Link in with current processes โ NAPs, NAPAs and Adaption Fund
โข Focus on a global adaptation goal โ metrics
โ Vulnerability, resource allocation, economics, research, finance
โ Proposed process to be launched
18. NEW AGREEMENT - MITIGATION
โข Focus on a global goal - options:
โ temperature goal that reflects current science;
โ emissions reduction goal โ 40 โ 70% below 2010 levels by 2050;
โ maximum concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere โ 350ppm;
โ Carbon budget
โข Divide as to whether developing countries should have economy wide
emissions reduction targets
19. NEW AGREEMENT โ REDD+
โข Current Non Paper (will form basis of draft text) โ see:
http://unfccc.int/meetings/lima_dec_2014/session/8532.php
โข Institutions: REDD+ Mechanism
โ Possible Institution to be developed by SBSTA
โ NB: CfRN proposal - informal meetings
โข Finance: REDD+ Window in the GCF
โ Would be specific institutional arrangements for REDD+
20. NEW AGREEMENT โ INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED
CONTRIBUTIONS
โข CoP 20 โ Agreement on scope โ
draft text out now
โข Commitments / Contributions โ to
what extent will they be legally
binding in a new agreement?
โข Parties to communicate their INDCs
to the UNFCCC by the first quarter
of 2015
โข Countries beginning to express that
REDD+ likely to be relied on as a
contribution
โ Outstanding question as to
what information would be
included on REDD+ eg:
safeguards information
systems summary?
โข Disagreement remains as to
whether to do an ex ante
assessment in 2015 โ will be an
issue in Lima
โข Likely that INDCS will be broad โ
Mitigation, Adaptation, Technology,
capacity building and finance
โ Reflected in draft text for Lima
decision
โ Possible links with reporting
processes โ Biennial Report
and Biennial Update Reports
and International Assessment
and Review and International
Consultation and Analyses
โข Other links โ NAPs / NAPAs /
NAMAs
21. NEW AGREEMENT โ CYCLES, RULES, MODALITIES
โข MRV cycles already in place โ BRs
/ BURs / Nat Comms etcโฆ.
โ How does this link to INDCs
process where MRV is carbon?
โข Review cycle: adequacy of INDCs
โข Commitment cycle: emissions
reductions / finance etc
โ Cannot be frozen in time
โข 5 years or 10 years
โ 5 year cycles with 10 year
indicative targets
โ 10 year cycles with 5 year mid
term review
โ In line with science - IPCC
โข Accounting
โ Most likely area of
convergence between LULUCF
& REDD+ - common
accounting rules
โข Suggested that there be key
Principles across the land sector
โ Technical work to be done
2015 โ 2020
โ Land-use change and forest
activities (NEW terminology)
โข Principles โ rights / landscapes
โ What hooks should these
principles contain?
22. ADP โ EXPECTATIONS FOR LIMA
โข Decision on Pre 2020 mitigation / TEMs
โข Decision on INDCs
โ Scope of information โ may elaborate on REDD inclusion
โ Whether there will be an ex ante assessment in 2015
โข Elements for a draft negotiating text
โ BUT โ intercessional in February 2015 - fall back!!!
โ More clarity on Land-Use Change and Forest Activities (LUCFA)
24. STANDING COMMITTEE ON FINANCE
โข Warsaw Mandate:
โ Coordination and cohesion of finance and forests
โ Beyond REDD+
โข Eighth Meeting โ October in Bonn
โ Commenced preparations for 2015 Forum
โ Released Background paper
โข 2015 Forum on Finance and Forests
โ May 2015
โ Will inform Financial Mechanisms โ GCF, GEF, Adaptation Fund
โ Report to COP 21 (Paris)
25. GREEN CLIMATE FUND
โข Operating entity of the Financial
Mechanism
โข Eighth Board Meeting in October โ
36 agenda items
โข Governance Frameworks now in
place
โข Accreditation Procedure now
agreed - Applications have been
release
โ Fast track procedures in place
โข Resource mobilization process in
place
โ Next meeting 20 November
(today)
โข REDD+ Results Based Payments
Framework โ see:
http://www.gcfund.org/fileadmin/00_c
ustomer/documents/MOB201410-
8th/GCF_B.08_08_Rev.01_Initial_Lo
gic_Model_fin_20141022.pdf
โข Limited to Carbon
โ definition of results as โonlyโ ex
post payments?
โข Recalls Warsaw language on
requirements (eg: SIS)
โ No assessments process in
place for safeguards compliance
โข Lacking โ more work to be done
โ recognition / incentives for non
carbon benefits
โ clear framework in place for
Phase 1 & 2 finance
28. SYNERGIES & LANDSCAPES
โข There was much activity Pre SB 40 / ADP 2.5
โข Agriculture Road Map goes through to mid 2016 โ New Agreement will be
reached in 2015
โ Agriculture discussion moving towards mitigation
โข Mitigation and Adaptation synergies are central to a landscape approach โ
under developed area
โ High potential for development going forward
โ Linked with non markets / alternative policy approaches
โข REDD+ discussion moving towards adaptation
โข Common accounting rules โ high level principles
29. MITIGATION & ADAPTATION SYNERGIES
โข Identified as important for the land sector in AR5
โข ADP - current non paper includes several linkages
โข GCF โ Additional Adaptation Results Areas not agreed
โข SCF โ Alternative Policy Approaches
โข SBSTA - Alternative Policy Approaches โ JMA
โ Some Parties have called for international technical guidance and
modalities on the issue โ Bolivia, Singapore, China, PNG
30. ACRONYMS
ADP: Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform
AR5: Fifth Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
BRs: Biennial Reports
BURs: Biennial Update Reports
CDM: Clean Development Mechanism
CfRN: Coalition for Rainforest Nations
COP: Conference of Parties
GCF: Green Climate Fund
GEF: Global Environment Facility
INDCs: Intended Nationally Determined Contributions
IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
JMA: Joint Mitigation Adaptation
KP: Kyoto Protocol
LUCFA: Land Use Change and Forest Activities
LULUCF: Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry
MRV: Measuring Reporting and Verification
Nat Comms: National Communications
NAMAs: Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions
NAPs: National Adaptation Plans
NAPAs: National Adaptation Programmes of Action
SBSTA: Subsidiary Body on Scientific and Technical Advice
SBI: Subsidiary Body on Implementation
SCF: Standing Committee on Finance
SIS: Safeguards Information Systems
TEM: Technical Expert Meeting
UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
WS: Work Stream