John Ingram, visiting CIFOR from the Environmental Change Institute — University of Oxford, was the keynote speaker during a seminar on food systems on Feb. 12, 2019, organized by the CGIAR Research Program on Forests, Trees and Agroforestry (FTA).

1. John Ingram
Food Systems Programme Leader
Environmental Change Institute
University of Oxford
Enhancing
Food System Resilience

2. Food Systems include a range of ‘Activities’
Material transformation
Value addition

3. Environmental
Outcomes
• Climate change
• Water availability
• Water quality
• Biodiversity
• Biogeochemistry
• Soil degradation
• …
Socioeconomic
Outcomes
• Income
• Employment
• Health
• Social capital
• Political capital
• Ethics
• …
Trade-offs to
be aware of!
Synergies to
exploit!
Food System ‘Activities’ give rise to
multiple ‘Outcomes’

4. Overall global food security ‘situation’
Insufficient cals
Insufficient nutrs
~ 1 billion
Insufficient nutrs
?3 billion
Excess cals (incl. many
with insufficient nutrs)
> 2.5 billion
Sufficient cals
Sufficient nutrs
?3 billion
Ø “Triple Burden of Malnutrition”
Different, overlapping forms of
malnutrition the ‘new normal’
(IFPRI 2015)

5. Food Systems Activities also have
varied impacts on natural resources
We also know the current global environmental
‘situation’
• Soil 33% degraded
• Fresh water 20% aquifers overexploited
• Biodiversity 60% of loss
• Marine resources 29% over-fished; 61% fully-fished
And 24% of total GHG emissions
And pollution: chemicals, plastics, litter, …

6. Ø Links between
human and animal
prophylaxis, e.g.
AMR
Ø Increasing risk of
disease emergence
with the rapid
changes at the A-H
interface.
And we know the current concerns about
animal-human interactions

7. Ø Child labour
Ø Animal welfare
Ø Workers rights
Ø Inter-generational legacy
Ø Food waste
Ø Farmer welfare and safety
Ø Equity
Ø Civil harmony
Ø …
And we have a host of current ethical concerns

8. 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Burundi
Somalia
India
Mauritania
Sudan
Cameroon
Yemen
Mozambique
Egypt
Haiti
Cote d’Ivoire
Somalia
Tunisia
India
Sudan
Mozambique
Tunisia
Libya
Egypt Mauritania
Algeria
Saudi Arabia
Sudan
Yemen
Oman
Morocco
Iraq
Bahrain
Syria
Uganda
Food
riots
Lagi, Bertrand & Bar-Yam 2011

9. So what’s coming down the track?

10. Extreme weather events + change in means

11. Projections of change in forest cover and
biodiversity index

12. Marked regional differences in projected
population growth

13. And marked regional differences in projected
increasing wealth
Proportion of middle
class by region
Middle Class: $6,000-$30,000 p.a.

14. And we know that per capita daily dietary kCal
demand increases with wealth over time
Tilman and Clark, Nature 2014
Incl Indonesia

15. Emerging trends:
10.3m
Type 2
diabetics
in Indonesia

16. 1
2000
Billions of people
(indicative; not to scale)
2 3 4 5 76 8 109
2040
2018
2028
kcal/person/day
consumption
2000
The environmental consequences of meeting this demand under
current food system practises and consumption trends are dire
Costs of triple burden of malnutrition (direct, indirect and
lost work days) currently 11% global GDP
Looking ahead…
Extrapolated calorie consumption
The current global cost of the 425m diabetics is
$825b/yr; 700m diabetics anticipated
Manage
Demand
Meet
Demand

17. Food System challenges are interconnected
against a background of stresses and shocks
Ø natural resource depletion
and
Ø many stagnating rural economies
and
Ø changing climate and extreme weather
ands
Ø social and socio-cultural changes
To achieve food security for a growing, wealthier, urbanising
population while minimising further environmental degradation

18. “The capacity over time of a food system and its units
at multiple levels, to provide sufficient, adequate and
accessible food to all, in the face of various and even
unforeseen disturbances.” – just relates to Food Security
So we need to enhance ‘Food System Resilience’
to these stresses and shocks
Enhanced understanding needed to:
ü accommodate different perspectives looking at a
common problem (esp. concerning multiple societal
goals)
ü be based on use of evidence in a value-laden debate

19. Defining Resilience
4 Questions
1. Of what?
2. To what?
3. For whom?
4. Over what time period?
Adapted from: Helfgott, European Journal of Operational Research, 2017

20. Food System OUTCOMES
Food
Utilisation
Food
Access
Food
Availability
Food SecuritySocial Welfare
• Income
• Employment
• Health
• Social capital
• Political capital
• Ethics
• …
Environment
• Climate change
• Water availability
• Water quality
• Biodiversity
• Biogeochemistry
• Soil degradation
• …
Food System
Activities
to deliver
Outcomes
1. Of what?
Adapted from: Ingram, Food Security, 2011

21. “Stream Trains” “Black Swans”
Easily perceived drivers and
trends that will influence
change - direct and indirect
Rare and/or unpredictable
events that have a big
impact
2. To what?
Food System Stresses and Shocks

22. 2. To what?
Food System Stresses and Shocks
Stress
pressure or tension
exerted on a system
[Steam Trains]
Shock
sudden surprising event
affecting a system
[Black Swans]
Demography Trade wars
Social & cultural norms Election and Referenda results
Natural resource degradation Food scares
Climate Extreme weather
Urbanisation Conflict
Automation Geophysical events
Science & technology
Geopolitics

23. 3. For whom?
Food system ‘actors’
Input
industry
Farmers,
fishermen
Con-
summers
Waste
process,
sewage
Subsistence farmers
Retailers,
food service
Food
industry
Traders,
processors

24. 4. Over what time period?
• Short-term interruptions (usually due to shocks) to eg:
• Fishing or agricultural activities (due to e.g. extreme weather)
• Critical ingredient shortfall (due to e.g. disease outbreak)
• Just in time groceries delivery (due to e.g. IT malfunction)
• Consumer shopping patterns (due to e.g. food scares)
• Longer-term disruptions (usually due to stresses) to eg:
• Natural resource degradation
• Energy price
• Low-carbon emission regulations
• Change in dietary preferences

25. Growing volatility from stressors and shocks needs
enhanced resilience
3 Resilience notions
1. Robustness Aim to resist disruption to current outcome
2. Recovery Aim to return to current outcome after
disruption [bounce back]
3. Re-orientation Accept alternative outcome after disruption
(transformation) [bounce forward]
All involve
Re-organisation Make changes to the system
(adaptation)

26. Enhancing Resilience 1
Re-organise the Food System Activities
Do the “doing” words differently

27. Enhancing Resilience 2
Re-organise the Food System ‘Drivers’
Social: education, media, household structure,
social movements, health care systems, …
Sci & Tech: farm inputs, food processing, food
preparation, logistics and health technologies, …
Environmental: climate, soil, water, pollution,
biodiversity, …
Policy: agri-environment schemes, nutrition, labour,
health and safety, …
Markets: preference, market structure,
competition, trade, …
Food System
Drivers
• Demography
• Economic
context
• Socio-political
context
• Cultural context
• Science &
Technology
• Environment
Adapted from: The Institute of Medicine & The National Research Council of the National Academies, 2015

28. FOOD
UTILISATION
FOOD
ACCESS
FOOD
AVAILABILITY
Food Security
Other Societal Interests
• Income
• Profit
• Rural development
• Employment
• Health
• Environment
• Landscape
• Ecosystem services
• Animal welfare
• …
Enhancing Resilience 3
Re-organise our ‘views’ on what we want as Food
System Outcomes

29. Providing a healthy, affordable,
and environmentally-friendly diet
for all people will require a
radical transformation of the
system.
This will depend on:
better farming methods,
wealthy nations consuming
less meat and
countries valuing food which is
nutritious rather than cheap.
InterAcademy Partnership: 28 Nov 2018
Enhancing Resilience 3
Re-organise our ‘views’ on Food System Outcomes

30. ... exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic
and social access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to
meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active
and healthy life.
“enough for a particular
purpose; as much as you need”
… OED
Enhancing Resilience 3
Re-organise our views of the ‘demand function’

31. Sustainable Food System
Activities
ü Environmentally sound
ü Socially acceptable
ü Economically/Enterprise
viable
Healthy Diet Outcomes
ü Calorie and nutrient density
ü Quality
ü Diversity
ü Safe
ü Affordable
ü Acceptable
ü Sufficient
“Sustainable diets”
“…healthy diets from
sustainable food
systems”

32. DRIVER
Interactions
Socioeconomic
DRIVERS
Changes in:
Demographics, Economics,
Socio-political context,
Cultural context
Science & Technology
Environmental
DRIVERS
Changes in:
Land cover & soils, Atmospheric
Comp., Climate variability & means,
Water availability & quality,
Nutrient availability & cycling,
Biodiversity, Sea level
‘Natural’
DRIVERS
e.g. Volcanoes
Solar cycles
Environmental feedbacks
e.g. water quality, GHGs, biodiversity
Socioeconomic feedbacks
e.g. nutrition, business, political stability
Food
Utilisation
Food
Access
Food
Availability
Food Security
A ‘Complex Adaptive System’
Where to intervene, and who does what?
Social,Political,Business,S&TandBiophysicalEnvironments
Social
Welfare
Environ-
ment

33. Ø Complex adaptive system, many interactive ‘drivers’ and feedbacks
Ø Set of dynamic actors and activities
Ø Interactive socioeconomic and environmental outcomes
Ø Wide range of power and vested interests; fragmented governance
Ø Confused terminology
However…
Ø Many policy, fiscal, social and technical options for change
Ø Multiple options for cooperation among actors
Ø Many plausible futures
Why is it so hard to make progress?

34. 1
2500
Billions of people
2 3 4 5 76 8 109
2040
2028
kcal/person/day
consumption
----------- Too much ------------ ----- Too little -------- Appropriate amount ---
Different motives, different agendas …
Health & Environment
Agenda
e.g. WHO, UNEP, WWF, …
Further synergies should be possible: will need multi-
actor design and delivery – including business.
Development
Agenda
e.g. FAO, CGIAR, CARE, …

35. ‘Post-farm gate’ Food System Activities
processing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, …
=> Final Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at shop
Productivity Diversity & Quality
Local, Regional & Global Production Activities
farming, horticulture, livestock raising, aquaculture, fishing, …
=> Basic Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at farm
Constraints on dietary choice and diversity
affordability, preference, allocation, cooking skill, convenience, cultural norms, …
=> Consumption by Sub-populations
Food System approach highlights roles of food chain actors
CONSUMERS
PRODUCERS
FOOD CHAIN ACTORS
Social,Political,Business,S&TandBiophysicalEnvironments
Insufficient cals
Insufficient nutrs
~ 1 billion
Sufficient cals
Insufficient nutrs
? 3 billion
Excess cals (incl. many
with insufficient nutrs)
> 2.5 billion
Sufficient cals
Sufficient nutrs