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Dynamics of the bio-economy market with focus on wood

Pillar 2: Choosing goals
By Lauri Hetemaki
European Forest Institute

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Dynamics of the bio-economy market with focus on wood

  1. 1. Dynamics of the bio-economy market with focus on wood Lauri Hetemäki 8.12.2020 | WWW.EFI.INT Assistant Director European Forest Institute CIFOR-ICRAF Workshop “Delivering a forest-based circular bio-economy”, 10 December 2020
  2. 2. Presentation is based on: 8.12.2020 | WWW.EFI.INT https://doi.org/10.36333/k2a01 Hetemäki, L., Palahi, M. & Nasi, R. 2020. Seeing the wood in the forests. Knowledge to Action no.1, European Forest Institute. Freely downloadable here:
  3. 3. Forest-Based Circular bioeconomy is a tool to help to achieve Paris Agreement and SDGs ▪ Difficult to see how the above grand policy targets could be reached without forest-based circular bioeconomy being part of the solution ▪ But: Is there enough wood to support forest-based circular bioeconomy? 8.12.2020 | WWW.EFI.INT 8.12.2020 | WWW.EFI.INT
  4. 4. 8.12.2020 | WWW.EFI.INT 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.6 4.0 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.6 4.0 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 Total Roundwood Wood Fuel Industrial Roundwood Period of stagnation 1991-2009 World total roundwood production, composed of industrial roundwood and wood fuel 1961-2018. Data source: FAOSTAT In 2018, world produced 14% more roundwood than in 2000 During this period the world economy grew by 2.7-times, world population increased by 1.5 billion and world middle-income population grew from about 1.5 billion to 3.8 billion
  5. 5. 8.12.2020 | WWW.EFI.INT If tomorrow was just another yesterday…... 2,400 2,800 3,200 3,600 4,000 4,400 4,800 2,400 2,800 3,200 3,600 4,000 4,400 4,800 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Million cubic meters Trend Forecast (trend 2000-2018) Roundwood production would increase from 3.9 billion cubic metres in 2018 to 4.5 Bmin 2050, i.e., by 16% or 614 million cubic meters How big is this increase from a global forest perspective, and would there be enough forest resources to satisfy this increase sustainably?
  6. 6. But, tomorrow will most likely not be another yesterday….. ▪ Some forest products demand decline (communication papers), new forest bioproducts introduced (textiles, biochemiclas, bioplastics, new wooden products for buildings,…etc.) ▪ They will not all use roundwood as such, but instead forest residues, bark, sawchips, pulping side streams (e.g. lignin), etc. ▪ Big question mark is what happens to fuel wood that accounts about half of the world roundwood production? ▪ Also, to what extent wood supply will increase (e.g., intensive plantation forests, Russia)? 8.12.2020 | WWW.EFI.INT
  7. 7. 8.12.2020 | WWW.EFI.INT Some illustrative hypothetical “what-if” scenarios 1: If world communication paper demand declines as in this century, its production would need 84 m. m3 less roundwood in 2050 2. Assume Africa, Brazil, China, India and Indonesia were able to cut their fuel wood consumption by 30% by 2050, because improvement in technological efficiency (better stoves) and moving to alternative energy forms (solar, wind, natural gas, etc.) > 400 million m3 less roundwood would be needed > 614 – 84 – 400 = 130 3. Russian harvest intensity is about 30%, in the EU it is about 65%. In FAO Russian Outlook study (2012) innovation scenario, Russian wood production will increase from current level of 218 m. m3 to 300 m. m3 by 2030 > 82 m. m3 4. World intensive plantation forest area is 55 m. ha (FAO 2020). According to projections (Indufor 2012), this could grow to around 90 m. ha. by 2050. In line, roundwood production could grow also by over 150 m. m3 World roundwood net demand increase would be by 2050 = 130 m. m3 World roundwood supply would increase from only these 2 sources by 2050 = 230 m. m3
  8. 8. 8.12.2020 | WWW.EFI.INT Thus, world roundwood resources are not necessarily a bottleneck for circular bioeconomy development, but… ▪ Need new innovative and more resource efficient use of roundwood to produce bioproducts, which help to reduce the use of fossil raw materials ▪ Impose and monitor environmental sustainability of harvests > should not compromise biodiversity and forest carbon sink targets > build synergies ▪ Most immediate means for a sustainable future is reducing consumption, whenever possible
  9. 9. 8.12.2020 | WWW.EFI.INT “We need to understand nature, our natural capital, as the basis for a new prosperity. A prosperity that needs to be based on renewable materials and energy, but also on a new and synergistic relationship between economy and ecology, bioeconomy and biodiversity, rural and urban areas.” Hetemäki, L., Palahi, M. & Nasi, R. 2020. Seeing the wood in the forests. Knowledge to Action no.1, European Forest Institute.
  10. 10. Thank you! Lauri Hetemäki lauri.hetemaki@efi.int FORBIO project on Twitter @FORBIOproject Erkki Oksanen, Luke 8.12.2020 | WWW.EFI.INT

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