This document summarizes the key findings of a global assessment on the impacts of climate change on forests conducted by an expert panel established by the International Union of Forest Research Organizations. The assessment found that climate change is already affecting forests and will have increasing negative effects in the future, putting carbon sink services of forests at risk beyond 2°C of warming. The assessment also found that sustainable forest management can help reduce vulnerability, but immediate emissions reductions are needed to preserve forests' adaptive and climate regulation capacities.

1. Carbon-regulating sink-services
of forests at risk
Results of a global assessment
Forest Day 3 Learning Event, Copenhagen, December 13, 2009
Risto Seppälä
Chair, Expert Panel on Adaptation of Forests to Climate Change
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2. BACKGROUND
 Global Forest Expert Panels (GFEP):
a new mechanism to provide policy makers with
science-based information on key global issues;
established in 2007 by Collaborative Partnership
on Forests (CPF)
 Led and coordinated by IUFRO (the International
Union of Forest Research Organizations)
 Expert Panel on Adaptation of Forests to Climate
Change established as first thematic panel
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3. EXPERT PANEL ON ADAPTATION OF
FORESTS TO CLIMATE CHANGE
 Task: assessment of climate change impacts on
forests, implications for human wellbeing, and
options for adaptation
 Almost 100 experts with broad range of scientific
backgrounds; several IPCC scientists
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4. PRODUCTS
 Peer reviewed scientific report
“Adaptation of Forests and
People to Climate Change – A
Global Assessment”
 Policy brief “Making Forests
Fit for Climate Change”
(available in all official UN
languages)
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5. KEY FINDINGS (1)
 Climate change has already affected forest
ecosystems
 It will have increasing effects on forests in the
future – boreal forests particularly affected
 In general, the warmer, the weaker forests will
be able to adapt to climate change
 Sink service of forests may turn into a disservice
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6. KEY FINDINGS (2)
 Beyond global warming of 2.5°C (4.5 degrees
Fahrenheit) relative to pre-industrial levels, the
carbon-regulating sink services of forests are at
risk of being lost as land ecosystems turn into a
net source of carbon
 This loss of carbon-regulating sink services of
forests would seriously exacerbate climate
change and cause a dangerous feedback loop
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7. KEY FINDINGS (3)
 Climate change can also have positive effects on
forest ecosystem services
 Climate change can increase the supply of
timber especially in boreal regions and even
globally due to increased tree growth
 In the end, however, the growth will likely be
offset by an increase in pests and diseases,
fires, and storms
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8. CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECTS
FORESTS, BUT
Climate change is only one factor affecting
forests and the people depending on them. So
far, the effects of other factors, such as human
population growth causing land use changes
(such as deforestation) have been more visible
than the direct impacts of climate change.
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9. OPTIONS FOR ADAPTATION
 Practices associated with sustainable forest
management (SFM) work well also in reducing
the vulnerability of forests to climate change.
 Need for flexibility in forest management on
ground (adaptive co-management)
 Need for new flexible modes of governance and
improved stakeholder participation
 More inter-sectoral coordination and policy
integration
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10. KEY CONCLUSION:
IMMEDIATE ACTION IS NEEDED
 Unmitigated climate change would, during the
current century, exceed the adaptive capacity of
many forests even if adaptation measures are
fully implemented
 Therefore, large reductions in emissions from
fossil fuels and deforestation are needed to
preserve both the adaptive and mitigative
capacity of forests
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11. Thank you for your attention !
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