Andy J Climate Change And Roots And Tubers Nov 2009
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Presentation on the impacts of climate change on agriculture, with specific reference to roots and tubers. made in the International Symposium for Roots and Tubers held in Lima, November 2009.
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Andy J Climate Change And Roots And Tubers Nov 2009
- 1. Climate change and roots and tubers Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez, Emmanuel Zapata
- 4. How can we be sure that it is changing?
- 7. Arctic Ice is Melting
- 11. So, what do they say?
- 15. Changes in Cassava production areas in Latin America
- 18. The Impacts on Crop Suitability
- 21. Average change in suitability for all crops in 2050s
- 22. Winners and losers Number of crops with more than 5% loss Number of crops with more than 5% gain
- 23. And potato???
- 24. Current Suitability Suitability 2020
- 25. Current Suitability Suitability 2050
- 26. Change in suitability 2020 Change in suitability 2050
- 27. Impacts on production of cassava
- 29. Impact of climate change on cassava suitable environments Global cassava suitability will increase 5.1% on average by 2050… but many areas of Latin America suffer negative impacts
- 30. What are the expected global benefits? Increase of 5-10% in potential land area for cassava when implementing either drought or flood tolerance 21.9 million hectares (16.9% of global cassava fields) under cultivation would benefit 63.3 million hectares of new land would become suitable for cassava
- 31. …… .and for Latin America? Drought or flooding tolerance 30% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced drought or flooding tolerance 1.6m Ha still suffering climatic constraint 2.23m Ha of current production 2.1m Ha of new land would become suitable for cassava
- 32. …… .and for Latin America? Heat or cold tolerance 27% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced cold or heat tolerance 2.23m Ha of current production 2.2m Ha of new land would become suitable for cassava
- 33. Evaluating Technology Options: Crop Improvement for Cassava Grey areas would get no benefit from drought or flood tolerance. Blue areas benefit from drought tolerance improvement Purple areas benefit from flood tolerance improvement
- 34. Pest and Disease Impacts
- 35. Impacts on green mite to 2020
- 36. Impacts on whitefly to 2020
Hinweis der Redaktion
- How are we going to estimate the effects of climate change on agriculture unless we’re going to wait for it to happen? Past changes are not really a good estimator. The little ice age starting in 1450 or thereabouts was a major event, completely changing the life styles and agriculture in Europe. It is piddling compared with what we are likely to see in the next 20 to 50 years. We must therefore rely on modeling situations that we have never before seen.