AfricaRice used household and community survey data from 18 countries along with experts' opinions to assess the potential impact of various rice research solutions by ecology. The methodology involved evaluating the importance of rice productivity and stresses by ecology, as well as varietal preferences. Experts proposed solutions and estimated yield gains. The data and estimates were used in econometric models to assess research impact by country, ecology, and discipline. Some results found average expected yield gains of solutions by ecology could yield $1.1 billion in annual benefits from 2014-2020. Looking ahead, AfricaRice aims to assess impacts of introduced technologies, inform future research priorities, and establish a futures team to continue this strategic foresight work.

1. Strategic Foresight at AfricaRice
Africa Rice Center (AfricaRice)
Global Futures and Strategic Foresight Extended Team Meeting
Rome, May 25-28, 2015

2. ContentContent
• Methodology
• Some results of the ex-ante impact
• Way forward

3. Methodology: the agricultural household modelMethodology: the agricultural household model

4. Methodology (Cont’d): Changes in varietal characteristicsMethodology (Cont’d): Changes in varietal characteristics

5. Methodology (Cont): Changes in agricultural practicesMethodology (Cont): Changes in agricultural practices

6.  Household and community survey data in 18 countries were used to
assess:
• The importance and variability of rice productivity by ecology
• The incidence and magnitude of effects of main stresses
• Varietal technology evaluation and preference at village level
 Two days workshop during AfricaRice 2010 Research days
• Scientist proposed solutions by ecology and research discipline
• Scientist provided expected yield loss reduction / yield gain for each solution
• Projected cost, year of delivery and proablitity of success
• AfricaRice’s comparative advantage in conducting such research
Methodology (Cont’d): dataMethodology (Cont’d): data

7.  These survey data, experts’ opinion and additional secondary data
were used with econometric methods, to assess research impact for
each research theme and discipline, by country and ecology
• See Diagne et. al (2013) and AfricaRice 2011-2020 Strategic Plan for more
details
Methodology (Cont)Methodology (Cont)

8. Average expected yield gain by research solution and ecology (t/ha)
Some aggregated results of the potential impacts of
technological innovations

9. Some aggregated results of the potential impacts of
technological innovations

10. Share of annual discounted benefit due to technologies, by research option
Some aggregated results of the potential impacts ofSome aggregated results of the potential impacts of
technological innovationstechnological innovations
ADB: $1.1 billion, from 2014 to 2020, for farmers

11. Share of annual discounted benefit due
to technologies, by ecology
Share of annual discounted benefit due
to technologies, by reseach discipline
Some aggregated results of the potential impacts ofSome aggregated results of the potential impacts of
technological innovationstechnological innovations
Results are also available for processors, traders and consumers

12. Looking aheadLooking ahead
• Many technologies have been introduced since 2014 in the Rice
Sector Development Hubs (RSDH) in SSA
• GFSF activities can help assess the mid-term impacts of these
technologies and review the IPRs for a better future
 Develop a framework at AfricaRice to link previous priority setting exercises to
(better?) inform IPRs of rice in SSA
 Mid-term data collection in the RSDH to assess the impacts of adopting improved
technologies on productivity for all types of actors along the rice value chain
 Training on the IMPACT model for AfricaRice staff that will get involved in Global
Futures activities
 Establishment of AfricaRice’s Global Futures Team
 Workshop for AfricaRice’s Global Futures Team members to review experts’
opinion stated in 2010 on future productivity growths

13. ThankyouThankyou