The Global Futures and Strategic Foresight (GFSF) team met in Rome from May 25-28, 2015 to review progress towards current work plans, discuss model improvements and technical parameters, and consider possible contributions by the GFSF program to the CRP Phase II planning process. All 15 CGIAR Centers were represented at the meeting.
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10 cip rome cip
1. CIP progress report
Athanasios Petsakos
Guy Hareau
International Potato Center (CIP)
25-28 May 2015
Rome, Italy
Global Futures & Strategic Foresight extended team meeting
2. Training
โข IMPACT training (January โ Moscow)
โข Gridded crop modeling training (April โ ICRISAT)
โข DSSAT training (May โ University of Georgia, Griffin)
3. Activities since the last meeting
โข Use of IMPACT for the assessment of new technologies:
โ Comparison with RTB priority setting exercise
โข IPR review for (sweet-) potatoes
โ Analyze past growth rates and estimate future ones
โ Focus on South Asia (focus changed after the latest discussionsโฆ)
โข Introducing biotic stresses in IMPACT
โ Still exploringโฆ
5. Priority assessment at CIP
Some background:
In 2014, CIP conducted a priority assessment study for RTB on potato
(and sweetpotato) technologies:
Hareau, G., Kleinwechter, U., Pradel, W., Suarez, V., Okello, J., Vikraman, S. (2014). Strategic Assessment
of Research Priorities for Potato. CGIAR Research program on Roots, Tubers and Bananas (RTB). RTB
Working Paper 2014-8. Lima, Peru. Available online at: www.rtb.cgiar.org
โข Strong interest from the RTB independent evaluation team on how
the results of ex-ante priority setting work are used to define the
RTB research portfolio.
โข Final publication of RTB priority setting working papers will
acknowledge cross-CRP collaboration (PIM, CCAFS).
6. IMPACT for priority assessment
Questions asked:
โข What changes are needed to IMPACT if we want to use it
for priority assessment?
โข What changes are needed to IMPACT and CIPโs surplus
model to create a common framework for comparison?
โข How do IMPACT results compare with those from the
surplus model?
7. Comparison challenges
โข IMPACT FPUs do not correspond to the FPUs of the surplus
model
โข Yield shifters can be defined only for 5-year periods
โ Solution 1: Use Rickyโs modeling system (DSSAT)**
โ Solution 2: Rewrite the code
โ Solution 3: Who needs year-specific shifters anywayโฆ?
โข Dissemination costs not modeled in IMPACT
โ Solution 1: Rewrite the code
โ Solution 2: Export results and perform analysis outside of IMPACT
8. Comparison challenges
โข IMPACT FPUs do not correspond to the FPUs of the surplus
model
โข Yield shifters can be defined only for 5-year periods
โ Solution 1: Use Rickyโs modeling system (DSSAT)**
โ Solution 2: Rewrite the code
โ Solution 3: Who needs year-specific shifters anywayโฆ?
โข Dissemination costs not modeled in IMPACT
โ Solution 1: Rewrite the code
โ Solution 2: Export results and perform analysis outside of IMPACT
9. Comparison challenges
โข IMPACT FPUs do not correspond to the FPUs of the surplus
model
โข Yield shifters can be defined only for 5-year periods
โ Solution 1: Use Rickyโs modeling system (DSSAT)**
โ Solution 2: Rewrite the code
โ Solution 3: Who needs year-specific shifters anywayโฆ?
โข Dissemination costs not modeled in IMPACT
โ Solution 1: Rewrite the code
โ Solution 2: Export results and perform analysis outside of IMPACT
11. The basicsโฆ
Rationale:
โข IMPACT base year is 2005 but we are in 2015โฆ
โข Before projecting to 2050, we must establish a valid initial
point !!!
Question :
Is adjusting yield growth rates sufficient?
19. Thoughts on pests and diseases modeling
โข Discussed in Florida (Feb2014)
โข CIPโs pest modeling team focuses on the tomato leaf miner
Tuta absoluta
โข Discussions to understand what is being modeled and
what outputs are available:
โ We need to understand what โtechnologiesโ are available
โ Who is the end user of the technologies
โ How much does it cost
โ How all this translates in yield shifts
20. Next steps and discussion
โข Must work with the IMPACT team to โstandardizeโ a
calibration procedure
โ Exogenous land growth rates important
โข Scheduled:
โ Complete the activities described
โข Not in workplan but interestingโฆ:
โ Conduct regional impact assessments to obtain better adoption
thresholds for some countries (also discussed in ReMIP/AgMIP)
21. Literature on potato IPRs
1. Scott, G. J., Rosegrant, M. W., & Ringler, C. (2000). Global projections for root and
tuber crops to the year 2020. Food Policy, 25(5), 561โ597.
2. Scott, G. J. & Suarez, V. (2011). Growth rates for potato in India and their
implications for industry. Potato Journal, 38(2), 100โ112.
3. Scott, G. J. (2011). Growth Rates for Potatoes in Latin America in Comparative
Perspective: 1961-07. American Journal of Potato Research, 88, 143โ152.
4. Scott, G. J. & Suarez, V. (2012a). Limits to Growth or Growth to the Limits? Trends
and Projections for Potatoes in China and Their Implications for Industry. Potato
Research, 55, 135โ156.
5. Scott, G. J. & Suarez, V. (2012b). The Rise of Asia as the Center of Global Potato
Production and Some Implications for Industry. Potato Journal, 39(1), 1โ22.
6. Scott, G. J., Labarta, R., & Suarez, V. (2013). Booms, Busts, and Emerging Markets
for Potatoes in East and Central Africa1961-2010. Potato Research, 56, 205โ236.
7. Article from Ulrich and G. Scott on LACโฆ Under revision