Dave Shortman presented "Risk Identification Using Hazus" at the 2016 Association of State Floodplain Managers conference.

1. 6/21/2016
Risk Identification using Hazus
City of Boston, Suffolk County, MA
Dave Shortman, GISP,
CFM

2. Agenda
 Objective
 Project Location
 Hazus Overview
 Hazus Level 2 Risk Assessment
 Comparison and Reporting of Results
 Conclusions
2

3. Objective
3

4. Objective
 The main objective of the study was to determine the
potential economic loss associated with coastal flooding
 Also to compare results from Hazus 2.1 to 3.1
4

5. Project Location
5

6. Project Location - Suffolk County, MA
6

7. Hazus Overview

8. Hazus
 FEMA’s HAZards United States (HAZUS) tool is designed to
produce loss estimates for use by federal, state, regional and
local governments and private enterprises in planning for risk
mitigation, emergency preparedness, response and recovery
 HAZUS includes capabilities to analyze earthquakes, floods
and hurricane winds
 Hazus was recently updated with census 2010 data

9. Levels of Analysis
9
Community-Specific Damage
Functions
Link HAZUS with Hydraulic
Model
Distribution of Terrain
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
O
pen/C
oastal
Lig
htSuburb.
M
ed.Suburb.
D
ense
Suburb.
U
rban
PercentageofArea
Damage
Flood Depth
Level 1
Use Default Databases
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Modify Building
Inventory
Aerial Photo
Number of Buildings by Specific Occupancy
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
RES1 RES2 RES3 RES4 RES5 RES6
BuildingCount

10. Flood Model Methodology
10
Define Hazard: Flood Surface Land Surface
Define and Overlay Inventory
Determine Damage
Estimate Losses

11. Level 1 Analysis – Floodplain Boundary

12. Level 1 Analysis – Buildings with Substantial
Damage

13. Level 1 Analysis – Total Losses

14. HAZUS Level 2 Risk Assessment
14

15. Boston Harbor HAZUS Study
 Level 2 analysis using historic flood hazard information and
census data – Effective Flooding (1990)
 Level 2 analysis using detailed engineering data along with
census data – Preliminary (2013) and Revised Preliminary
(2015, new effective)
 “Modified” Level 2

16. Defining the Hazards
 Topographic data from
FEMA’s Charles River HUC 8
LiDAR FY2010
 Flood surface generated from
 Effective Data (1990 FIS, study
performed in 1987)
 Preliminary Data (November
15, 2013)
 Revised Preliminary Data (July
9, 2015)
 Using CHAMP/WHAFIS results
along with updated elevation
data we developed depth
grids that are compatible
with the HAZUS model
 Census data from Hazus 2.1 &
3.1

17. Defining the Hazards
 Topographic data from FEMA’s
Charles River HUC 8 LiDAR
FY2010
 Flood surface generated from
 Effective Data (1990 FIS, study
performed in 1987)
 Preliminary Data (November 15,
2013)
 Revised Preliminary Data (July 9,
2015)
 Using CHAMP/WHAFIS results
along with updated elevation
data we developed depth grids
that are compatible with the
HAZUS model
 Census block data from Hazus
2.1 & 3.1

18. Waterfront Development Areas
South Boston Waterfront (Effective SFHA overlay)
Coastal Updates

19. Waterfront Development Areas
South Boston Waterfront (Preliminary SFHA overlay)
Coastal Updates

20. Waterfront Development Areas
East Boston Shorefront (Effective SFHA overlay)
Coastal Updates

21. Waterfront Development Areas
East Boston Shorefront (Preliminary SFHA overlay)
Coastal Updates

22. Defining the Hazards
 Topographic data from FEMA’s
Charles River HUC 8 LiDAR
FY2010
 Flood surface generated from
 Effective Data (1990 FIS, study
performed in 1987)
 Preliminary Data (November 15,
2013)
 Revised Preliminary Data (July 9,
2015)
 Using CHAMP/WHAFIS results
along with updated elevation
data we developed depth grids
that are compatible with the
HAZUS model
 Census block data from Hazus
2.1 & 3.1
East
Boston
South Boston
Fenway
Charlestown
Downtown
South
End
Back
Bay
South Boston
Waterfront
Beacon
Hill
North
End
West
End
Chinatown
Bay
Village
Leather
District
REVERE
MEDFORD
CAMBRIDGE
SOMERVILLE
WINTHROP
BOSTON
EVERETT
CHELSEA
FortPointChannel
Boston
Harbor
Legend
whdepth2015
Value
High : 45.4059
Low : -24.3278
Town Boundary
NeighborhoodsN
0 1 20.5
Miles
Charles River
Mystic River
ChelseaRiver
Boston Harbor Hazus
Woods Hole Group
Residential Total Loss

23. Defining the Hazards
 Topographic data from
FEMA’s Charles River HUC 8
LiDAR FY2010
 Flood surface generated from
 Effective Data (1990 FIS, study
performed in 1987)
 Preliminary Data (November
15, 2013)
 Revised Preliminary Data (July
9, 2015)
 Using CHAMP/WHAFIS results
along with updated elevation
data we developed depth
grids that are compatible
with the HAZUS model
 Census block data from
Hazus 2.1 & 3.1

24. Dasymetric Data
Hazus 2.1 Hazus 3.1
24

25. Results
25

26. East
Boston
South Boston
Fenway
Charlestown
Downtown
South
End
Back
Bay
South Boston
Waterfront
Beacon
Hill
North
End
West
End
Chinatown
Bay
Village
Leather
District
REVERE
MEDFORD
CAMBRIDGE
SOMERVILLE
WINTHROP
BOSTON
EVERETT
CHELSEA
FortPointChannel
Boston
Harbor
Legend
TotalLoss
0
1 - 1000
1001 - 2000
2001 - 3000
3001 - 4000
4001 - 5000
5001 - 8000
8001 - 10000
10001 - 17500
Town Boundary
Neighborhoods
N
0 1 20.5
Miles
Charles River
Mystic River
ChelseaRiver
Boston Harbor Hazus
Effective
Total Loss
Total Losses – Effective
Hazus 2.1 Hazus 3.1

27. East
Boston
South Boston
Fenway
Charlestown
Downtown
South
End
Back
Bay
South Boston
Waterfront
Beacon
Hill
North
End
West
End
Chinatown
Bay
Village
Leather
District
REVERE
MEDFORD
CAMBRIDGE
SOMERVILLE
WINTHROP
BOSTON
EVERETT
CHELSEA
FortPointChannel
Boston
Harbor
Legend
TotalLoss
0
1 - 1000
1001 - 2000
2001 - 3000
3001 - 4000
4001 - 5000
5001 - 8000
8001 - 10000
Over 10000
Town Boundary
Neighborhoods
N
0 1 20.5
Miles
Charles River
Mystic River
ChelseaRiver
Boston Harbor Hazus
Revised Preliminary
Total Loss
Total Losses – Revised Preliminary
Hazus 2.1 Hazus 3.1

28. Summary
 Hazus 2.1 Results:
 Overall Exposure: $32,381.1M
 Damages:
 Effective Total: $305M
 Building Loss: $141.5M
 Contents Loss: $158.5M
 Other Loss*: $50.1M
 Revised Preliminary Total:
$973.2M
 Building Loss: $345.7M
 Contents Loss: $592.7M
 Other Loss*: $34.8M
 *Other Loss Includes Inventory, Relocation, Income, Rental Income, and
Wage Losses
 Hazus 3.1 Results
 Overall Exposure: $94,466.4M*
 Damages:
 Effective Total: $268.8M
 Building Loss: $119.9M
 Contents Loss: $145.0M
 Other Loss*: $3.9M
 Revised Preliminary Total:
$1,274.6M
 Building Loss: $434.1M
 Content Loss: $800.9M
 Other Loss: $39.7M

29. Structure Density – Boston North
Structures Added to Preliminary SFHA
Coastal Updates

30. Coastal Updates
Structure Density
Population Density for Structures
Within the Preliminary SFHA
Population Density – Boston North
Population Density for Structures
Within the Preliminary SFHA

31. Changes Since Last FIRM
Community Change Area mi2
Area
Increase
mi2
Area
Decrease
mi2
Area Net
mi2
Boston CHHA 5.3 2.0 0.0 2.0
Boston SFHA 12.3 2.8 0.2 2.6
Boston NonSFHA 2.0 1.4 0.0 1.4
Chelsea CHHA 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
Chelsea SFHA 1.2 0.7 0.0 0.7
Chelsea NonSFHA 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
Revere CHHA 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1
Revere SFHA 3.4 0.4 0.0 0.4
Revere NonSFHA 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Winthrop CHHA 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5
Winthrop SFHA 1.9 0.2 0.0 0.2
Winthrop NonSFHA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Suffolk County CHHA 7.1 2.7 0.0 4.4
Suffolk County SFHA 18.6 4.1 0.2 3.9
Suffolk County NonSFHA 2.4 1.6 0.1 0.8
Change Definitions
CHHA – coastal high hazard area (Velocity zone increase/decrease
SFHA – special flood hazard area increase/decrease (Zone A, AE, AO,
AH)
NonSFHA – 0.2% Annual Chance Flood increase/decrease

32. Comparison to HAZUS-MH Values in Draft
Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan
 Analysis done by Metropolitan Area Planning Commission
 Earthquake Damages
 5.0 magnitude with an epicenter in downtown Boston - $3,450.0M
 6.0 magnitude with an epicenter on Cape Ann - $431.7M
 6.5 magnitude with an epicenter in central New Hampshire - $457.1M
 Wind Damages
 1938 Hurricane - $372.2M
 Hurricane Carol (1954) - $819.6M
 Hurricane Irene (2011) - $8.6M
 Riverine and Stream Flooding (100 year event)
 Charles River Watershed - $16.6M
 Mother Brook Watershed - $105.6M
 Muddy River Watershed - $81.1M
 Mystic River Watershed - $9.0M
 Combined - $212.3M

33. Conclusions
 Updated SFHA and topographic data provide more accurate
results
 Hazus 3.1 gives an up to date assessment of exposure and
damages
 Boston coastal housing and commercial stock has gained significant
value since 2000 census
 Coastal development has increased
 Barring a major event the growth in Boston will continue
 Hazus with 2020 census?
 Flood Risk Assesment Database cannot handle these values (Long
data type ~ 2.1 billion)

34. Questions?