Presented at the CCIM Institute's fall conference, CCIM Thrive, October 21, 2014, by The Economy Decoded panelist, Robert Bach.

1. These Are a Few of My Favorite
Graphs
Bob Bach
Director of Research
Newmark Grubb Knight Frank

2. Mining & Logging
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transp. & Warehouse
Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Prof. & Bus. Services
Education & Health
Leisure & Hospitality
Other Services
Government
U.S. Employment Change by Sector Since Recession Began
Growth Uneven Among Sectors
-2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000
Thousands
 Since January 2008, when total
employment hit its pre-recession peak,
the sectors of education and health
services, professional and business
services, and leisure and hospitality
have added 5.2 million net new payroll
jobs, while the manufacturing and
construction sectors trail their pre-recession
peaks by a combined 3.0
million jobs, as of September 2014.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, NGKF

3. Metro Employment Change Since Pre-recession Peak
Growth Uneven Among Metro Areas
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, NGKF

4. 2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Inflation Indexes: CPI and PCE Deflator*, 12-Month Change
Core Inflation Still Below Fed’s Target Rate
Fed Target = 2%
Aug-13 Nov Feb May Aug-14
Total CPI Core CPI
Total PCE Core PCE
 Inflation has pulled back from its
recent run higher, both total and core
(excluding food and energy).
 The indexes remain below the Federal
Reserve’s target rate of 2.0%,
suggesting no urgency for the Fed to
begin tightening rates before the
middle of next year.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, NGKF

5. 19%
18%
17%
16%
15%
14%
13%
12%
Office Vacancy Rates, CBDs vs. Suburbs
Suburbs Recovering But More Ground to Cover
'10 '11 '12 '13 '14
CBD Suburban
 After decades in decline, cities are cool
again as millennials flock to hip urban
neighborhoods along with the
employers that want to hire them.
 But suburbs are fighting back: With
66% of the nation’s office inventory,
suburbs accounted for 82% of net
absorption year-to-date..
 Availabilities are higher and rents are
lower in the suburbs, helping to attract
tenants, but rents are on the rise, up
4.5% over the past four quarters
compared to 4.3% in CBDs.
Source: CoStar, NGKF

6. Space Under Construction: Percent of Prior Peak
Construction Ramping Up But Still in Safety Zone
Percent of Prior Peak:
 Office @ 58%
 Industrial @ 54%
 Retail @ 28%
 Apartment @ 79%
Source: CoStar, Census Bureau, NGKF
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Office Industrial Retail Apartment