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Populism Between Algorithms and Fake News.
What PRs Can Learn from Recent Italian Elections
Biagio Carrano
The day after...
The day after...
The day after...
The day after...
Lega Nord gained a whopping 4,2 mln voters
(+200%!)
Forza Italia (Berlusconi) lost around 3 mln voters
Lega Nord, Forza Italia and Fratelli d’Italia were allied
in Center-right coalition
In five years Democratic Party (center-left) lost 2,5 mln
of voters
Five Star Movement gained more than 1,9 mln
voters (+25%), especially in Southern Italy
«I supposed it was a joke»
Or a nightmare?
Or a scientific strategy based
on fake news and algorithms?
"Populism Between Algorithms and Fake News - What PRs Can learn from Recent Italian Elections"
"Populism Between Algorithms and Fake News - What PRs Can learn from Recent Italian Elections"
Some questions
✓ What is the impact of Fake news during
the election campaign?
✓ How fake news are disseminated inside
specific echo chambers?
✓ How fake news can survive debunking?
✓ Is it desirable a debunking done by
Police?
The real impact of Fake news relies in its framing power
The real impact of Fake news relies in its framing power
To study the correlation between the framing of the previous months and
the communication during the election campaign
To study the correlation between the framing of the previous months and
the communication during the election campaign
Political issues, agenda setting, positioning
The narrative of a recovering country 

fully defeated by 

the narrative of a unsecure country 

(immigration and unemployment)
Losing issues
✓
Civil rights
✓
Economic
Growth
✓
Pro EU rethoric
Winning issues
✓
Immigration
✓
Security
✓
Unemployment
✓
No-Euro/No-EU
✓
Taxes
Two winning strategies on social media
Matteo Salvini has developed a top-down strategy in
which the leader decides the issues and distributes the
keywords to activate the reaction of different triboos of
his supporters.
He saturates the social networks, asks questions to get
feedbacks to test the sentiment of his fan base, he
provokes flames trolling competitors, the hashtags
#primagliitaliani or #primaillavoro are generic and
acontestual
Two winning strategies on social media
The strategy of Five Star Movement is molecular.
The headquarter, via the blog www.ilblogdellestelle.it/
and the social media, promotes not only the distribution but
the production of contents made by militants
The communication relies also on mediaactivism of
thousands of supporters. Casaleggio e Associati, the
webcompany co-founder of Five Star Movement, manages
the core contents and tries to lead the online conversation,
promoting «spo(i)ntaneous» activities
SOCIAL ENGAGEMENT INDEX
Five-Star Movement is the absolute protagonist
Index based on KPI considering the number of positive interactions, Like, Shares, fan base growth of Facebook and Twitter accounts
SOCIAL ENGAGEMENT INDEX
Matteo Salvini is by far the top figure among political leaders
Index based on KPI considering the number of positive interactions, Like, Shares, fan base growth of Facebook and Twitter accounts
Party performance on Social Media Vs. Party leader performance on Social
Media
Source: Ste Davis, Decoding the Social Media Algorithms. A Guide for
Communicators
Hacking Social Media Algorithms for electoral campaign
purposes?
Source: Ste Davis, Decoding the Social Media Algorithms. A Guide for
Communicators
Hacking Social Media Algorithms for electoral campaign
purposes?
Survey in the last 8 days of campaign on 980 Twitter profiles and 8375 tweets. Courtesy from https://socialrecap.it
Effectiveness on Twitter
Political debate on Twitter focused on personal attacks and litigation
Leader per volume of tweets: Center-right
Leader per engagement: Five Star Movement
The secret of Five Star Movement is the activation of thousands of microinfluencers
The secret of Five Star Movement is the activation of thousands of microinfluencers
Scale-free network
Lessons learned
✓ Fake news (fake not as false, but as exaggerated and distorted) used by
foreign countries and political actors to create specific framings many
months before elections
✓ Microtargeting too expensive, its effectiveness is still questioned
✓ Raise of microinfluencers as more effective alternative to microtargeting
✓ Digital PR in politics more than content marketing: it’s about social
mobilitation, using social networks algorithms and network analysis
✓ Algorithms and Fake news can’t be an alibi for the failure of
communication strategies
Are you sure someone else didn’t use
Your personal data before?
Politics. In 2008 Berlusconi used data from Badoo for electoral purposes
Are you sure someone else didn’t use
Your personal data before?
Politics. In 2008 Berlusconi used data from Badoo for electoral purposes
Lercio means Filthy
Are you sure someone else didn’t use
Your personal data before?
Yes, this is really a fake news!
Thank you for your attention!
Biagio Carrano
biagio@eastcom.it

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"Populism Between Algorithms and Fake News - What PRs Can learn from Recent Italian Elections"

  • 1. Populism Between Algorithms and Fake News. What PRs Can Learn from Recent Italian Elections Biagio Carrano
  • 6. Lega Nord gained a whopping 4,2 mln voters (+200%!) Forza Italia (Berlusconi) lost around 3 mln voters Lega Nord, Forza Italia and Fratelli d’Italia were allied in Center-right coalition In five years Democratic Party (center-left) lost 2,5 mln of voters Five Star Movement gained more than 1,9 mln voters (+25%), especially in Southern Italy
  • 7. «I supposed it was a joke»
  • 9. Or a scientific strategy based on fake news and algorithms?
  • 12. Some questions ✓ What is the impact of Fake news during the election campaign? ✓ How fake news are disseminated inside specific echo chambers? ✓ How fake news can survive debunking? ✓ Is it desirable a debunking done by Police?
  • 13. The real impact of Fake news relies in its framing power
  • 14. The real impact of Fake news relies in its framing power
  • 15. To study the correlation between the framing of the previous months and the communication during the election campaign
  • 16. To study the correlation between the framing of the previous months and the communication during the election campaign
  • 17. Political issues, agenda setting, positioning
  • 18. The narrative of a recovering country 
 fully defeated by 
 the narrative of a unsecure country 
 (immigration and unemployment) Losing issues ✓ Civil rights ✓ Economic Growth ✓ Pro EU rethoric Winning issues ✓ Immigration ✓ Security ✓ Unemployment ✓ No-Euro/No-EU ✓ Taxes
  • 19. Two winning strategies on social media Matteo Salvini has developed a top-down strategy in which the leader decides the issues and distributes the keywords to activate the reaction of different triboos of his supporters. He saturates the social networks, asks questions to get feedbacks to test the sentiment of his fan base, he provokes flames trolling competitors, the hashtags #primagliitaliani or #primaillavoro are generic and acontestual
  • 20. Two winning strategies on social media The strategy of Five Star Movement is molecular. The headquarter, via the blog www.ilblogdellestelle.it/ and the social media, promotes not only the distribution but the production of contents made by militants The communication relies also on mediaactivism of thousands of supporters. Casaleggio e Associati, the webcompany co-founder of Five Star Movement, manages the core contents and tries to lead the online conversation, promoting «spo(i)ntaneous» activities
  • 21. SOCIAL ENGAGEMENT INDEX Five-Star Movement is the absolute protagonist Index based on KPI considering the number of positive interactions, Like, Shares, fan base growth of Facebook and Twitter accounts
  • 22. SOCIAL ENGAGEMENT INDEX Matteo Salvini is by far the top figure among political leaders Index based on KPI considering the number of positive interactions, Like, Shares, fan base growth of Facebook and Twitter accounts
  • 23. Party performance on Social Media Vs. Party leader performance on Social Media
  • 24. Source: Ste Davis, Decoding the Social Media Algorithms. A Guide for Communicators Hacking Social Media Algorithms for electoral campaign purposes?
  • 25. Source: Ste Davis, Decoding the Social Media Algorithms. A Guide for Communicators Hacking Social Media Algorithms for electoral campaign purposes?
  • 26. Survey in the last 8 days of campaign on 980 Twitter profiles and 8375 tweets. Courtesy from https://socialrecap.it Effectiveness on Twitter Political debate on Twitter focused on personal attacks and litigation Leader per volume of tweets: Center-right Leader per engagement: Five Star Movement
  • 27. The secret of Five Star Movement is the activation of thousands of microinfluencers
  • 28. The secret of Five Star Movement is the activation of thousands of microinfluencers Scale-free network
  • 29. Lessons learned ✓ Fake news (fake not as false, but as exaggerated and distorted) used by foreign countries and political actors to create specific framings many months before elections ✓ Microtargeting too expensive, its effectiveness is still questioned ✓ Raise of microinfluencers as more effective alternative to microtargeting ✓ Digital PR in politics more than content marketing: it’s about social mobilitation, using social networks algorithms and network analysis ✓ Algorithms and Fake news can’t be an alibi for the failure of communication strategies
  • 30. Are you sure someone else didn’t use Your personal data before?
  • 31. Politics. In 2008 Berlusconi used data from Badoo for electoral purposes Are you sure someone else didn’t use Your personal data before?
  • 32. Politics. In 2008 Berlusconi used data from Badoo for electoral purposes Lercio means Filthy Are you sure someone else didn’t use Your personal data before? Yes, this is really a fake news!
  • 33. Thank you for your attention! Biagio Carrano biagio@eastcom.it