A paper presented on current situations in the Nile Basin-NBI and the CFA during an educational tour with undergraduate PSIR students of AAU-to Bahir Dar and Debre Markos Universities on March 2011.

1. The Nile Basin Initiative
The Nile Basin Initiative
(NBI): Current Status,
(NBI): Current Status and
Challenges and Prospects
Challenges
Zerihun Abebe
March 2011
Zerihun Abebe
Paper presented in
Debremarkos University
Bahir Dar University

2. Introduction
• Geographic Facts of the Nile
• Two Tributaries
• Eastern Nile shared by Ethiopia,
Eritrea, Egypt, Sudan and South
Sudan
– Major sub-basins Abbay, Tekeze-Atbara and
Baro-Akobo
– Contributes almost 86% of the Nile

3. Introduction ctd…
• Equatorial Lakes shared by Burundi, D.R.
Congo, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda,
Uganda, Sudan, Egypt and South Sudan
• White Nile contributes some less than 15 %
• Negligible contribution
• Less soil erosion because of swamps in South
Sudan

4. History of Cooperation on the Nile
• From Hydromet to TECCONILE
• Cooperation on the Nile started in the late
1960s
• Hydromet-The Hydro-metrological Survey
of the Equatorial Lakes was the first
initiative (est. 1967)
• Main Objective was to study, analyze, and
disseminate to member states metrological data
on the equatorial lakes and rivers.” (Yacob,
2007:213).

5. History ctd…
• membership was also restricted to the basin states Egypt, Kenya,
Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda, Ethiopia, not strictly on the basin,
had an observer status since 1971
• Suspicious relation, lack of trust and confidence, membership
problem as it was confined to the NELR only, Hydromet was not
effective
• Undugu (Kiswahili-Brotherhood) was the 2nd coopn
attempt-est 1983
• Members were, Burundi, DRC, Uganda, Sudan, Egypt, and Rwanda
from the basin and a non-basin Central African Republic were full
members. While Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania had observer status
• The focus was more on ‘non-water’ issues, including; culture,
telecommunication, electric power, trade, environment, and water
resource development
• Buried in 1993 without achieving its objectives

6. History ctd…
• TECCONILE-the Technical Cooperation
Committee for the Promotions of the
Development and Environmental Protection of
the Nile, established in 1992 to meet as the Nile-
2002 conference.
• Short term objectives were; assist member states in
developing national master plans and their integration into a
Nile basin development action plan; and to develop the
infrastructure and build the capacity and techniques required
for the basin’s water resources (Ethiopia, MWR, 1999: 4 in
Yacob, 2007: 215).
• Tecconile’s long-term objective aimed at conservation and
equitable entitlement of the water resources.
• While the rest of the Basin states were full members Kenya
and Ethiopia chose to be observers.

7. Assessment of Previous
Cooperation attempts
• Most of them collapsed without achieving
the intended goals
• Mistrust
• Mutual suspicion
• Divergent positions, policies, interests of
the riparian states
• Non-membership of principal riparian such
as Ethiopia
• Political unrest/civil war in riparian states;
Rwanda, Burundi, DRC, Sudan, … were
challenges

8. Assessment …
• All were made in downstream;
especially a result of Egypt's
initiative- the offspring of a stolen camel
will always be illegitimate. Thus, these
attempts all, from Hydromet to
TECCONLE had served the interest of
downstream states

9. Assessment…. Ctd…
• The cooperative attempts, at least
theoretically show that, cooperation is
possible and attainable,
• TECCONILE experiences from Nile-2002
conferences later helped for the
establishment of an inclusive regional
initiative in the late 1990s

10. The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI)
• Established on 22 February 1999, Dar el Salam,
Tanzania
• All riparian states except upstream Eritrea;
which is an observer, are full members
• Factors contribute to the establishment of NBI
includes,
• environmental factors like climate change, degradation,
desiccation,
• Population growth and the need to meet the water demands
of this population
• Understanding that unilateral undertakings are unstoppable

11. NBI: Objectives
• the NBI is guided by a shared vision “to achieve,
sustainable socio-economic development through
the equitable utilization of and benefit from, the
common Nile basin water resources.” (NBI, 2001:2)
• The primary objectives of the NBI are:
• To develop the water resources of the Nile Basin in a sustainable
and equitable way to ensure prosperity, security, and peace for all
its peoples,
• To ensure efficient water management and the optimal use of the
resources,
• To ensure cooperation and joint action between the riparian
countries, seeking win–win gains,
• To target poverty eradication and promote economic integration
• To ensure that the program results in a move from planning to
action (NBI 2001).

12. NBI ctds…
• Organs of the NBI
• The Nile–COM-Council of Ministers of the
Nile-which served as the highest decision
making body,
• the Nile–TAC is the Technical Advisory
Committee of the Nile to support the Nile–
COM,
• the Secretariat- Nile-SEC.

13. NBI: Two Complementary
Programs (Two Tracks)
1. The Shared Vision Program (SVP)- SVP’s
primary purpose is to create an enabling
environment for cooperation management and
development in the Nile basin through a limited
but effective set of basin wide activities and
projects.” (NBI, 2001: 3)
• It is a basin wide project,
• It includes the negotiation for New Nile Treaty-
the legal track

14. NBI ctd….
2. Subsidiary Action Programs (SAPs)
• A project to translate the Shared Vision into action
• Comprises sub-basin arrangements
• It is the technical track of the NBI
• The two sub-basin arrangements are:
A. The Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Program (ENSAP)
includes Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, and,
B. The Nile Equatorial Lakes Region Subsidiary Action
Program (NELSAP)-which includes Burundi, D.R.
Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda from the
upper riparian states and Egypt and Sudan as
downstreamers.

15. NBI ctd…
• According to officials in the NBI, the
initiative was working well before the CFA.
• Following the signing of the CFA, Egypt
and Sudan time and again warned to
withdraw from the initiative
• Later Sudan freezes its activities in the
NBI
• The future of the NBI is attached with the
future of the CFA and is uncertain

16. NBI: Challenges
• Political commitment
• Excessive unilateral actions
• Mistrust and lack of confidence
• Upstream-downstream position on the
CFA

17. The NBI: Prospects for the Future
• Lessons learned from the NBI experience
• The cost of unilateralism and benefits of
cooperation
• Environmental enigmas such as deforestation,
land degradation, that affects both the quality
and quantity of water. Such challenges can not
be mitigated by individual actions
• The role of the international community
especially the World Bank

18. The Cooperative Framework
Agreement of the Nile (CFA):
Current Status and Future
Scenarios
• Why the CFA?
• The need to reverse the unfair status quo

19. “Agreements” on the Nile: A
Retrospect
• The 1929 Colonial Agreement-exchange of
Notes between UK and Egypt
• Agreement b/n UK and UK
• Institutionalize Historic Right, Ancient right, prior use,…of
Egypt
• Give 48 bcm of water to Egypt
• Privileged Egypt with veto power on water projects from
source to mouth
• its legality is questioned from a number of angles; Nyerere
Doctrine, Fundamental Change of Circumstances, pacta sunt
servanda
• Not a direct concern of Ethiopia

20. Agreements ctd…
• The 1959 Agreement for the full utilization
of the Nile water
• Signed between independent Nile riparian states-
Egypt and Sudan
• Allocate the entire annual Nile flow between Egypt
(55.5 bcm), Sudan (18.5 bcm) and evaporation in
the Sahara Desert (10 bcm).
• recognize so-called historic right of Egypt and
Sudan

21. Tenets of the CFA
• The CFA was “negotiated by the Ministers of Water Resource of the
Nile riparians, legal and technical national negotiators, and external
advisors on international water law.” (Cascao, 2008a:7).
• The CFA as a general agreement “outlines general principles of
cooperative water resources management with respect to
protection, utilization, conservation and development of the Nile
River System” (Granit et al 2010:20).
• The corner stone of the CFA is the famous principle of Equitable
and reasonable utilization (Article 4).
• Here, “[i]t should be noted that at the outset that equitable utilization
is chiefly a doctrine governing apportionment, or allocation of water
between states sharing an international watercourse.” (McCaffrey,
2007: 385).
• Hence the CFA in one way or another is a water sharing agreement

22. Tenets ctd…
• The CFA by declaring equitable and reasonable
utilization principle in the Nile Basin, it destroys
the unfair status quo on the Nile
• By so doing the achievement of the CFA is its
ability of destructing the real impediment of
cooperation on the Nile-the so-called historic or
ancient right; which was based on the 1929 and
1959 agreements
• It also oblige states not to cause significant harm under
Article 5.
• Protection and conservation of the Nile River Basin
and its ecosystems Article 6

23. Current Status of the CFA
• According to Article 42
• The CFA shall enter into force on the sixtieth day
following the date of the deposit of the sixth instrument of
ratification or accession with the African Union.
• Till today, six nations-Ethiopia, Rwanda, Kenya,
Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi have signed it and DRC will
follow in the unprecedented future
• Upon the ratification of the treaty, the CFA will establish
the Nile Basin Commission Article 15
• The signatories are all, therefore, upstream states
• No downstream state has signed yet

24. Current Status ctd…
• Downstream states have not yet signed because
they perceive that the agreement is against their
interest (Addis Fortune, May 16, 2010).
• The main bone of contention is Article 14(b)
• Article 14(b) deals with the new concept of water
security
• The conflict is simply between maintaining the
status quo and reversing it

25. Current status ctd…
• Upstream Vs. Downstream Positions on Article 14(b)
• Having due regard to the provisions of Articles 4 and 5,
Nile Basin States recognize the vital importance of water
security to each of them. The States also recognize that
the cooperation management and development of
waters of the Nile River System will facilitate
achievement of water security and other benefits. Nile
Basin States therefore agree, in a spirit of cooperation:
(a) to work together to ensure that all states achieve
and sustain water security;
(b) the unresolved Article 14(b) is annexed to be
resolved by the Nile River Basin Commission within
six months of its establishment.

26. Current status ctd…
• Upstream states acclaim Article 14(b) as not to
significantly affect the water security of any other
Nile Basin State
• Downstream Egypt and Sudan proposes to
rewrite Article 14(b) as not to adversely affect
the water security and current uses and rights of
any other Nile Basin State.
• With this division and divergent interest and
position the CFA is signed by upstream states
only

27. Current status ctd…
• Following the decision of upstream states to sign
the CFA, downstream Egypt and Sudan
proposed to establish the Nile Basin
Commission by declaration of presidents and
pending the negotiation on the CFA
• For upstream states, however, negotiation is
over.
• From the upstream perspective after 14 May
2011 NBC will be established
• The question is, then, what will be the fate of
NBI if Egypt and Sudan withdraw?

28. Future Scenarios
• If Egypt and Sudan signed the CFA before
the deadline
• It would be a golden opportunity in solving the real
predicament on the Nile
• Would pave the way to enhance cooperation by
strengthening existing arrangements and initiatives
in the NBI
• Is less likely taking their position, Nile policy and
the internal political situation they are with in

29. Future ctd….
• If Egypt and Sudan acceded to the CFA
after May 14, 2011
• There are arguments that Egypt and Sudan will
join the CFA. This argument is based on reasons
such as;
• The benefit of cooperation against non-cooperation
• Envtal enigmas that needs collective action
• Population growth….
• But the problem is downstream states will follow
delaying tactics in relation to water allocation as
well as the implementation of different projects.

30. Future ctd…
• If Egypt and Sudan not sign the CFA at all
• That will leave the Nile Basin to uncertain future
but upstream-upstream cooperation will establish
NBC
• But the problem is regarding sub-basin
arrangements like ENSAP/ENTRO-if Egypt and
Sudan withdraw from NBI and insist on rejecting
the CFA, there will be no ENSAP/ENTRO.
• The future is uncertain………
• But one truth is there, the unfair status quo
is destructed…..

31. Thank You!!!!!!