The 2012 presidential election resulted in Barack Obama being re-elected as President. Obama maintained many aspects of the coalition that elected him in 2008, including strong support from youth, Latinos, African Americans, and women, especially unmarried women. While Romney led on some economic issues like taxes, Obama was seen as caring more about average Americans and was credited with supporting the auto industry bailout, which helped him win key Midwestern swing states like Ohio. Turnout among key parts of Obama's coalition increased from 2008. The election reinforced that the country remains closely divided along partisan lines.

1. ELECTION 2012
Post-Election Analysis

2. ELECTION OVERVIEW
 Landscape: Lead-Up To The Election
 Presidential Results: What happened?
 Presidential Results: How did it happen?
 Congressional Results: What happened?
 Looking Ahead: What does this mean going forward?
1

3. TAKEAWAYS
 Race was trending toward Obama leading in to Election Day
 Growing economic optimism
 Improving job approval numbers
 Obama maintained 2008 coalition
 Youth, Latino, African-American, Women (especially unmarried
women) all turned out and supported Obama
 Coalition supplemented by Midwest support cemented by
auto-bailout
2

4. TAKEAWAYS
 Organization won
 Romney spent more on ads in all but one swing state
 But Obama had more than twice as many field offices in each swing
state
 It was a very close election/ we are still largely an evenly
divided country
 Partisan Primaries cost Republicans
 Moves perceptions of the party to the right, alienating key segments
of voters
 Costs Republicans winnable Senate seats for 2nd cycle in a row
3

5. LANDSCAPE
Lead-Up To The Election

6. OBAMA JUMPED AHEAD OF ROMNEY IN CLOSING DAYS
As of November 6, 2012: OBAMA 48.6% ROMNEY 47.6%
Debates
Hurricane
Sandy
Romney Secures
nomination
Conventions
5
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data

7. PREDICTION MARKET CONSISTENTLY FAVORED OBAMA
Barack Obama As of Mitt Romney
November 6,
68.4% 31.4%
2012
6
Source: InTrade

8. STARTING IN AUGUST, AMERICANS’ VIEWS ON THE
ECONOMY BECAME MORE OPTIMISTIC
Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
60%
49% 50% 49%
50% 45% 45% 43%
43% 44% Getting
38% 38% better 39%
40% 36% 34%
32% 30% 30% 33% 30% 30% 32% Staying
28%
30% 34% the Same
28% 28% 27% Getting
20% 24% 23% 22% 24% 24% 25%
worse
18%
10% 14%
0%
7
Source: CBS News Poll, October 17-20, 2012

9. NUMBER WHO THOUGHT COUNTRY WAS ON THE WRONG
TRACK TRENDED DOWN LEADING INTO THE ELECTION
A Look Back
Nov 2008 Source: NBC News/WSJ %
As of November 6, 2012
Wrong Track 76
Right Direction 11
WRONG TRACK 52.8% October 2004 Source: NBC News/WSJ %
Wrong Track 47
Right Direction 41
October 2000 Source: NBC News/WSJ %
Wrong Track 32
Right Direction 48
Nov 1996 Source: NBC News/WSJ %
Wrong Track 40
Right Direction 41
RIGHT DIRECTION 41.5% October 1992 Source: NBC News/WSJ %
Wrong Track 69
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data Right Direction 16
8

10. JOB APPROVAL RATINGS FOR INCUMBENT
PRESIDENTS SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Selected dates, as available, in year of re-election
Presidential Job Approval January March June October
2012: Barack Obama 44% 46% 47% 50%
2004 George W. Bush 60% 49% 49% 50%
1996: Bill Clinton 42% 54% 58% 58%
1992: George H.W. Bush 46% 41% 37% 33%
1984: Ronald Reagan 52% 54% 55% 58%
1980: Jimmy Carter 56% 43% 32%
1976: Gerald Ford 56% 43% 32%
1972: Richard Nixon 49% 56% 59%
1964: Lyndon Johnson 77% 77% 74%
President’s in red lost re-election
9
Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data

11. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DROPPED AS ELECTION
APPROACHED, VARIED WIDELY IN SWING STATES
12.0 Unemployment
State
Rate (Sept 2012)
10.0 9.9 9.8
10.0 9.5
9.0 9.0 National 7.8%
8.3 8.1
7.8 7.9 11.8%
8.0 Nevada
7.8 North Carolina 9.6%
6.0 8.7%
Florida
4.0 Colorado 8%
Wisconsin 7.3%
2.0 7%
Ohio
0.0 Virginia 5.9%
Jul
Jul
Jan
Jul
July
Jan
Apr
Jan
Apr
Apr
Jan
Apr
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
New Hampshire 5.7%
Iowa 5.2%
2009 2010 2011 2012
10
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Jan 2009 – October 2012

12. ECONOMIC CONCERNS DRIVE ELECTORAL AGENDA
What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?
40% 36% 37%
PROBLEM %
35% 32% 31% 31% 31% 32% 31% 31% 31% 32% The economy 37
29%
30% Unemployment 26
31% 30% 26% 30%
25% 28% 29%
25% 26% 26% 26% Federal budget deficit 12
25% 25% 23%
20% 16% 15% 16% 22%
14% 15% Dissatisfaction with
13% 13% 13% 12% 9
15% 12% 13% 12% 12% gov’t
10% Health care 7
12% 11% 11%
9% 10% 9%
5% 8% 8% 9% 9%
7% 7%
Lack of money 5
6%
Education 4
0%
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Foreign aid/Focus
4
2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 overseas
Ethical/moral/family
Unemployment Economy 4
decline
Dissatisfaction with gov't Federal Budget Deficit
Results <4% not shown
11
Source: Gallup Poll, October 15-16, 2012

13. OBAMA’S JOB APPROVAL TRENDED UP AS RACE
ENTERED THE HOME STRETCH
APPROVE Nov 3-5
DISAPPROVE
Each result is based on a three-day rolling average
12
Source: Gallup Poll Daily Tracking

14. PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS
What Happened?

15. A RECAP OF THE 2008 ELECTION
Obama McCain
365 173
11 VT NH
3 3
3 4 4
OR
7 10
MN NH
4 3 10 31 MA
3 17 12
5 4 7 21 RI
1 4
55 5 21 11 20
CO
9 5 13 CT NJ
6 11 8KY 7 15
11 15
NC MD DE
10 NM 5 7 6
10 3
8 DC
GA
3
AK 6 9 15 3
34 9
27
4
14

16. 2012 ELECTION RESULTS – OBAMA ONLY LOSES
TWO STATES FROM 2008 MAP
Obama 332 Romney 206 Party change from ‘08
12 VT NH
3 3
3 4
4
OR
7 10
MN NH
4 3 10 29 MA
3 16 12
6 5 6 20 RI
4
55 6 20 11 18
CO
9 5 13 CT NJ
6 10 8KY 7 15
11 15
NC MD DE
11 5
NM 7 6
10 3
9 DC
GA
3
AK 6 9 16 3
38 8
29
4
Obama currently ahead in Florida,
15
still counting absentee ballots

17. PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS
How Did It Happen?

18. “THE ECONOMY” WAS #1 ISSUE AND SLIGHTLY FAVORED
ROMNEY, BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR THE WIN
Economy 59%
(+4R)
Federal Health 15%
18% (+51D)
Budget (+34R) Care
5%
Deficit Foreign Policy
(+23D)
17
Source: 2012 Exit Polls

19. BUT A DEEPER DIVE ON ECONOMIC MEASURES SHOWS
ROMNEY ONLY OUTPERFORMS ON TAXES
Which ONE of these four is the biggest economic problem facing
people like you?
38% 37% 14% 8%
Unemployment Rising Prices Taxes Housing Market
+10D Tie +34R +31D
18
Source: 2012 Exit Polls

20. FEW ARE SEEING PROGRESS FINANCIALLY, BUSH STILL
BLAMED FOR CURRENT ECONOMIC PROBLEMS
Compared to four years ago, is your family's financial situation:
Total Obama Romney Obama wins
among those who
Better today 25% 84% 15% believe things are
Worse today 33% 18% 80% the same from four
years ago.
About the same 41% 58% 40%
Who is more to blame for current economic problems?
Voters still blame Total Obama Romney
George Bush for
current economic Barack Obama 38% 5% 94%
problems. George W. Bush 53% 85% 12%
19
Source: CNN and MSNBC exit polls

21. ROMNEY WINS ON NEARLY ALL TRAITS, YET OBAMA STILL
WON ELECTION
Total Spread
Has a vision for the future 29% +9R
Shares my values 27% +13R
Cares about people like me 21% +63D
Is a strong leader 18% +23R
20
Source: 2012 Exit Polls

22. PRESIDENT OBAMA’S SUPPORT OF THE AUTO BAILOUT
HELPED HIM IN CRITICAL SWING STATES
How do you feel about the federal government's aid to U.S. automakers?
Michigan Wisconsin Ohio
62% 53% 60%
Approve Approve Approve
+53D +59D +48D
21
Source: 2012 Exit Polls

23. WHITE VOTE CONTINUES TO DECLINE AS % OF
ELECTORATE
% of Electorate
2004 2008 2012
White 77% 74% 72%
Hispanic vote
Black 12% 13% 13% growing
Hispanic/Latino 8% 8% 10%
Spread
2004 2008 2012
And trending
toward Obama White +17R +12R +20R
Black +77D +91D +87D
Hispanic/Latino +9D +36D +44D
22
Source: 2004-2012 Exit Polls

24. LATINO TURNOUT UP TWO POINTS, SUPPORT FOR
OBAMA STRENGTHENS FROM 2008
% of Electorate
2004 2008 2012
National 8 9 10
Colorado 8 13 11
Florida 15 14 16 The Latino vote grew,
Nevada 10 15 19
especially in Florida
North Carolina 1 3 4
and Nevada
Ohio 3 4 3
Virginia 3 5 5
Wisconsin 2 3 4
Spread
2004 2008 2012
National +9D +36D +44D
Colorado +38D +23D +49D
Florida +12R +15D +22D
Obama’s margins Nevada +21D +54D +45D
increased – especially in North Carolina - - +31D
Florida and Colorado Ohio +30D - +16 D
Virginia - +31D +32 D
Wisconsin +4D - +37D
23
Source: 2004-2012 Exit Polls

25. SHIFT AWAY FROM OBAMA AMONG ALL AGE GROUPS
EXCEPT 30-44 YEAR OLDS
% of Electorate
2004 2008 2012
18-29 17 18 19
30-44 29 29 27
45-64 30 37 38
65+ 24 16 16
Spread
2004 2008 2012
18-29 +9D +34D +23D
30-44 +7R +6D +7D
45-64 +3R +1D +4R
65+ +8R +8R +12R
24
Source: 2004-2012 Exit Polls

26. GENDER DIVIDE WIDENS TO 18 POINTS FROM 12 IN 2008
+13D
+11D
+3D
+1D
Men
Women
+7R
+11 R
2004 2008 2012
25
Source: 2004-2012 Exit Polls

27. PARTISAN DIVIDE REMAINS STEADY FROM 2008
2004 2008 2012
Democrat 38% 39% 38%
Independent 26% 29% 29%
Republican 38% 32% 32%
Party Split Even D+7 D+6
26
Source: 2004-2012 Exit Polls

28. ROMNEY HAD CLEAR ADVANTAGE IN ADVERTISING…
Romney Swing State Advertising Spending Advantage
+$108.2 million
Barack Obama Mitt Romney
Total Spending: $389.3 million Total Spending: $497.5 million
Campaign Spending: $333.4 million Campaign Spending: $196.4 million
PAC Spending: $64.2 million PAC Spending: $301.0 million
OBAMA ROMNEY Overall
$ millions Outside Outside Spending
Campaign Total Campaign Total
Spending Spending Advantage
Colorado $29.8 $9.1 $38.3 $17.0 $24.5 $41.5 $3.1
Florida $66.7 $11.1 $77.7 $44.0 $60.3 $104.3 $26.6
Iowa $24.6 $4.0 $28.6 $16.5 $26.1 $42.6 $14.0
Nevada $22.2 $3.7 $25.8 $12.2 $20.2 $32.4 $6.6
New Hampshire $21.4 $.05 $21.5 $5.5 $11.9 $17.4 $4.2
North Carolina $24.2 $0 $24.2 $17.1 $28.1 $45.2 $21.0
Ohio $72.8 $18.9 $91.7 $43.2 $57.4 $100.6 $8.9
Virginia $52.9 $13.8 $66.8 $33.2 $49.3 $82.5 $15.7
Wisconsin $11.2 $3.6 $14.7 $7.7 $23.3 $31.0 $16.3
27
Source: National Journal

29. …BUT OBAMA’S GROUND GAME ADVANTAGE WAS
STAGGERING AND CRITICAL TO HIS SUCCESS
Swing State Field Offices
Obama Field Offices Obama Romney
Obama
Advantage
Colorado 62 13 +49
596 Florida
Iowa
Nevada
New
104
67
26
47
13
11
+57
+54
+15
22 8 +14
Hampshire
Romney Field Offices North
54 23 +31
Carolina
205
Ohio 131 39 +92
Virginia 61 28 +33
Wisconsin 69 23 +46
28
Source: Obama and Romney Websites

30. OBAMA’S VOTER CONTACT EFFORTS GREATLY EXCEEDED
ROMNEY’S AND MAY HAVE PERSUADED LATE DECIDERS
When did you finally decide for whom to
Obama vote in the presidential election?
Campaign made
% Spread
125 million Just today 3 +7D
personal contacts*
In the last few days 6 +5D
Romney
In October 11 +1D
Campaign made
50 million In September 9 +8R
personal contacts** Before that 69 +7D
29
*Since the last election **Since the spring
Source: Obama and Romney Campaigns

31. CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS
What Happened?

32. SENATE: PRE-ELECTION – RACES IN PLAY
Democrats: 53 Republicans: 47
OR
MN
CO
KY
NC
NM
GA
AK
31
Source: CNN

33. SENATE: POST-ELECTION – DEMS GAIN TWO SEATS
King (D/I): 53.0%
Democrats: 55 (+2) Republicans: 45 (-2) Summers (R): 30.6%
Dill (D): 13.1%
Warren(D): 53.7%
Brown (R-i): 46.3%
OR
MN NH
Donelly (D): 49.9%
Mourdock (R): 44.4%
CO
Fischer(R): 58.2% KY
Kerrey (D): 41.8%
NC
NM
GA
AK
32
Source: CNN

34. HOUSE OVERVIEW: NO MAJOR SHIFTS, POSSIBLE DEM
PICKUP AS TEN RACES REMAIN UNDECIDED
2010
Democrats Republicans
Pre-Election 256 179
Gains / Losses -64 +64
Results 192 (44%) 243 (56%)
2012
Democrats Republicans
Pre-Election 193 242
Results 192 233
10 Races Remain Undecided
33
Source: CNN

35. LOOKING AHEAD
What Does This Mean Going Forward?

36. HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS
2010 Health Care Law
Obama Romney
EXPAND IT OR LEAVE IT AS IS (44%) 87% 11%
Expand it (26%) 92% 5%
Leave It As Is (18%) 80% 19%
REPEAL SOME OF IT OR ALL OF IT (49%) 15% 83%
Repeal some of it (24%) 27% 72%
Repeal all of it (25%) 3% 93%
35
Source: 2012 Exit Polls

37. HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS
Income Taxes
Obama Romney
Increase For All (13%) 52% 44%
Increase Only On
Income Over $250K 70% 29%
(47%)
Not Increase Them For
23% 75%
Anyone (35%)
Obama Romney
U.S. Favors the Wealthy
(55%) 71% 26%
Economic
System Is Fair to Most
Americans (39%)
22% 77%
36
Source: 2012 Exit Polls

38. HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS
Immigration
Should most illegal immigrants working in the
United States be:
Obama Romney
Offered a chance
to apply for legal 61% 37%
status (65%)
Deported to the
country they came 24% 73%
from (28%)
37
Source: 2012 Exit Polls

39. HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS
View of Government
2004 2008 2012
Government should do
46% 51% 43%
more to solve problems
Government is doing too
many things better left to 49% 43% 51%
businesses and individuals
38
Source: 2012 Exit Polls

40. GPG Research
GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and
quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message
development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor
critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.
GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex political topics with diverse
audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques to
uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’
messaging and strategy.
For more information about this presentation
or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:
Joel Johnson (jjohnson@gpgdc.com) or
David Cantor (dcantor@gpgdc.com)
39

41. APPENDIX

42. 2007-2008 OBAMA vs. MCCAIN HEAD TO HEAD
41

43. DOW JONES
Over The Past Year November 6, 2012
13,245.68
November 7, 2011
October 5, 2012
12,068.39
13,610.15
November 25, 2011
11,257.55
42
Source: Google Finance

44. DOW JONES
Since Late January 2009 November 6, 2012
13,245.68
January 16, 2009 October 5, 2012
8,281.22 13,610.15
March 6, 2011
6,626.94
43
Source: Google Finance

45. YOUTH VOTE WAS KEY TO OBAMA’S WINNING STRATEGY
% of Electorate
2004 2008 2012
National 17 18 19
Colorado 15 14 16
Florida 17 15 15
Iowa 17 17 15
Nevada 16 17 17
New Hampshire 16 18 19
North Carolina 14 18 15
Ohio 21 17 17
Virginia 17 21 19
Wisconsin 20 21 21
Spread
2004 2008 2012
National +9D +34D +23D
Colorado +4 D - -
Florida +17 D +24D +35D
Iowa +7 D +25D +16D
Nevada +14 D +36D +38D
New Hampshire +14 D +24D +30D
North Carolina +13 D +48D +36D
Ohio +14 D +25D +29D
Virginia +8 D +21D +25D
Wisconsin +16 D +29D +24D
44
Source: 2004-2012 Exit Polls

46. AFRICAN AMERICAN VOTE OVERWHELMINGLY TO
SUPPORT OBAMA, TURNOUT UP IN OHIO
% of Electorate
2004 2008 2012
National 11 13 13
Florida 12 13 13
Nevada 7 10 9
North Carolina 26 23 23
Ohio 10 11 15
Virginia 21 20 20
Wisconsin 5 5 7
Spread
2004 2008 2012
National +77D +91D +87D
Florida +73D +92D +91D
Nevada +73D +89D +82D
North Carolina +71D +90D +92D
Ohio +68D +95D +92D
Virginia +75D +84D +87D
Wisconsin +72D +82D +88D
45
Source: 2004-2012 Exit Polls

47. INDEPENDENTS SHIFTED TOWARD ROMNEY,
BUT THE SHIFT WAS NOT LARGE ENOUGH
% of Electorate
2004 2008 2012
National 26 29 29
Colorado 33 39 38
Florida 23 29 33
Iowa 30 33 34
Nevada 26 32 34
New Hampshire 44 45 43
North Carolina 21 27 28
Ohio 25 30 31
Virginia 26 27 29
Wisconsin 27 29 32
Spread
2004 2008 2012
National +1D +8D +5R
Colorado +7D +10D +7R
Florida +16D +7D +1R
Iowa +8D +15D +14D
Nevada +12D +13D +8R
New Hampshire +14D +20D +7D
North Carolina +15R +21R +10R
Ohio +19D +8D +10R
Virginia +10R +1D +10R
Wisconsin +8D +19D +2D
46
Source: 2004-2012 Exit Polls

48. SENIORS VOTED MORE GOP AND TURNED OUT IN
SIMILAR NUMBERS TO 2008, BUT THERE WERE SOME
TURNOUT CHANGES WITHIN SWING STATES
% of Electorate
2004 2008 2012
National 16 16 16
Colorado 24 13 17
Florida 27 22 25
Iowa 28 18 26
Nevada 25 15 18
New Hampshire 20 14 15
North Carolina 22 16 22
Ohio 20 17 18
Virginia 19 11 14
Wisconsin 21 14 17
Spread
2004 2008 2012
National +5R +8R +11R
Colorado +13R +9R +14R
Florida +3R +8R +19R
Iowa +3D +1D Tie
Nevada Tie +13R +13R
New Hampshire +5D +13D +11D
North Carolina +11R +13R +24R
Ohio +17R +11R +11R
Virginia +2D + 7R +7R
Wisconsin +8D Tie +5R
47
Source: 2004-2012 Exit Polls

49. WHITE TURNOUT DOWN, SUPPORT FOR REPUBLICAN UP
% of Electorate
2004 2008 2012
National 77 74 72
Colorado 86 81 81
Florida 70 71 67
Iowa 96 91 93
Nevada 77 69 64
New Hampshire 95 94 93
North Carolina 71 72 70
Ohio 86 83 79
Virginia 72 70 70
Wisconsin 90 89 86
Spread
2004 2008 2012
National +17R +12R +20R
Colorado +15R +2D +11R
Florida +15R +14R +27R
Iowa +1R +4D +4D
Nevada +12R +8R +13R
New Hampshire +1D +10D +5D
North Carolina +46R +29R +32R
Ohio +12R +6R +15R
Virginia +36R +21R +23R
Wisconsin +5R +9D +4R
48
Source: 2004-2012 Exit Polls