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BDML Ecommerce
What is Big Data?
• “Big data," is a group of data technologies that
  are making the storage, manipulation and
  analysis of large volumes of data cheaper and
  faster than ever.
• Types of “Big data”
   – Transactional Data
   – Data from mobile app
      • Location data , Profiles
   – Data from Social media
      • Blogs, Facebook, Twitter and other social media apps

                                                               2
Big Data Challenge
• Managing the three “V”s of big data
  – Volume
  – Velocity
     • The speed at which data is coming and changing
  – Variety
     • Text, Audio, Video
• Big Data is mainly unstructured data
• Technology to store big data
• Technology to analyze big data
                                                        3
The Business Needs
• Traditionally business wanted answers to Five
  Questions
• Traditional BI answers two of those questions
   – What Happened? – Reports and Ad-hoc Queries
   – Why it Happened? – Analytics, Cubes
• Dash Boards and Score Cards Answer the third
   – What is happening Now?
• Data Mining and Predictive Analytics Answer the last
  two
   – What is going to Happen in Future? – Data Mining
   – What can I do to stop it or make it better in future? –
     Predictive Analytics

                                                               4
Big Data Opportunity
• The relational databases has limitations
  – Data needs to be modeled
  – Need to know the business needs to create good
    data models
  – Data needs to be structured to support queries
• Can we do analytics on big data and answer all
  Five business questions?


                                                     5
Value Potential of Big Data




                              6
Pattern-Based Strategy Model




                               7
Patterns for Competitive Advantage




                                     8
Examples: Zara (Retail Clothing)




                                   9
Major Appliance Retailer




                           10
Enterprise Hadoop Solutions Rating Q1 2012




                                        11
Big Data Opportunities
• McKinsey projects that in the U.S. alone, there will be a need by
  2018 for 140,000 to 190,000 “data scientists”
• Steep technical learning curves and a lack of qualified technical staff
  create barriers to adoption




                                                                      12
Big Data Opportunities
• Need for another 1.5 million data-literate
  managers
  – Formal training in predictive analytics and statistics.
• The technologies in the big data area are not
  Analyst Friendly
  – Need Programmers with knowledge of
    Hadoop, Statistics and analytics
     • Companies Retraining programmers and database analysts
       to get them up to speed on advanced analytics.
     • Getting started with Hadoop doesn't require a large
       investment as the software is open source, and is available
       instantly through the Amazon Web Services cloud (Elastic
       MapReduce service)

                                                                     13
McKinsey Predicts the Magnitude of
 Big Data Potential Across Sectors




                                 14
How Big Data is going to change BI and
      Analytics – MIT Research




                                     15
Billion dollar idea




                      16
DMA Campaign Response Rates 2010
•   Email to a house list averaged a 19.47% open rate, a 6.64% click-through
    rate, and a 1.73% conversion rate, with a bounce-back rate of 3.72% and an
    unsubscribe rate of 0.77%.
•   Direct mail: Letter-sized envelopes had a response rate this year of 3.42% for a
    house list and 1.38% for a prospect list.
•   Catalogs had the lowest cost per order of $47.61, just ahead of inserts at
    $47.69, email at $53.85, and postcards $75.32.
•   Outbound telemarketing to prospects had the highest cost per order of
    $309.25, but it also had the highest response rate from prospects of 6.16%.
•   Paid search had an average cost per click of $3.79, with a 3.81% conversion
    rate. The conversion rate (after click) of Internet display advertisements was
    slightly higher at 4.43%.




                                                                                   17
18
Mobile Marketing and Purchase




                                19
Improving Offer Acceptance Rate: Algorithms to Personalize
                         Offers
• K-Means Clustering for clustering Users
   – Cluster users based on brand preferences and
     demographics
   – Most popular Clustering Algorithm
• Logistic regression for finding the probability of
  accepting an offer
• SVD (Single Value Decomposition) to reduce
  dimensionality of data and to reduce noise
   – Reducing the dimensions to a few improves
     performance and reduce accuracy
   – The noise reduction which happens when the
     dimensions are reduce helps to improve the
     accuracy of prediction

                                                         20
Logistic Regression for Click Prediction




                                      21
How Does The Model Work?




– Classification Algorithms learns from Examples in a process known as Training
– Need Training Data and Decide on Training Algorithm
    • Choose between Logistic Regression and Google’s combined regression and ranking
– Need to specify the input values (Predictors) and output values (Target) in the
  training data
    • Predicting Clicks probability is the Target variable
    • User and Item features are the input variables
                                                                                        22
Choosing Products for customer and Ordering

             Customer
               Details




                                            Click Prediction
Sale Items                                  Model for Product




                          Items   Display
                         Chosen    Order




                                                                23
Conclusion
• On the basis of our on-line surveys, face-to-
  face survey and analysis of studies done by
  others we conclude that the opportunity for a
  Marketing application based on Big data and
  Machine Learning is great. In a scale of 1-10
  we rate this opportunity at 9




                                              24

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Bdml ecom

  • 2. What is Big Data? • “Big data," is a group of data technologies that are making the storage, manipulation and analysis of large volumes of data cheaper and faster than ever. • Types of “Big data” – Transactional Data – Data from mobile app • Location data , Profiles – Data from Social media • Blogs, Facebook, Twitter and other social media apps 2
  • 3. Big Data Challenge • Managing the three “V”s of big data – Volume – Velocity • The speed at which data is coming and changing – Variety • Text, Audio, Video • Big Data is mainly unstructured data • Technology to store big data • Technology to analyze big data 3
  • 4. The Business Needs • Traditionally business wanted answers to Five Questions • Traditional BI answers two of those questions – What Happened? – Reports and Ad-hoc Queries – Why it Happened? – Analytics, Cubes • Dash Boards and Score Cards Answer the third – What is happening Now? • Data Mining and Predictive Analytics Answer the last two – What is going to Happen in Future? – Data Mining – What can I do to stop it or make it better in future? – Predictive Analytics 4
  • 5. Big Data Opportunity • The relational databases has limitations – Data needs to be modeled – Need to know the business needs to create good data models – Data needs to be structured to support queries • Can we do analytics on big data and answer all Five business questions? 5
  • 6. Value Potential of Big Data 6
  • 11. Enterprise Hadoop Solutions Rating Q1 2012 11
  • 12. Big Data Opportunities • McKinsey projects that in the U.S. alone, there will be a need by 2018 for 140,000 to 190,000 “data scientists” • Steep technical learning curves and a lack of qualified technical staff create barriers to adoption 12
  • 13. Big Data Opportunities • Need for another 1.5 million data-literate managers – Formal training in predictive analytics and statistics. • The technologies in the big data area are not Analyst Friendly – Need Programmers with knowledge of Hadoop, Statistics and analytics • Companies Retraining programmers and database analysts to get them up to speed on advanced analytics. • Getting started with Hadoop doesn't require a large investment as the software is open source, and is available instantly through the Amazon Web Services cloud (Elastic MapReduce service) 13
  • 14. McKinsey Predicts the Magnitude of Big Data Potential Across Sectors 14
  • 15. How Big Data is going to change BI and Analytics – MIT Research 15
  • 17. DMA Campaign Response Rates 2010 • Email to a house list averaged a 19.47% open rate, a 6.64% click-through rate, and a 1.73% conversion rate, with a bounce-back rate of 3.72% and an unsubscribe rate of 0.77%. • Direct mail: Letter-sized envelopes had a response rate this year of 3.42% for a house list and 1.38% for a prospect list. • Catalogs had the lowest cost per order of $47.61, just ahead of inserts at $47.69, email at $53.85, and postcards $75.32. • Outbound telemarketing to prospects had the highest cost per order of $309.25, but it also had the highest response rate from prospects of 6.16%. • Paid search had an average cost per click of $3.79, with a 3.81% conversion rate. The conversion rate (after click) of Internet display advertisements was slightly higher at 4.43%. 17
  • 18. 18
  • 19. Mobile Marketing and Purchase 19
  • 20. Improving Offer Acceptance Rate: Algorithms to Personalize Offers • K-Means Clustering for clustering Users – Cluster users based on brand preferences and demographics – Most popular Clustering Algorithm • Logistic regression for finding the probability of accepting an offer • SVD (Single Value Decomposition) to reduce dimensionality of data and to reduce noise – Reducing the dimensions to a few improves performance and reduce accuracy – The noise reduction which happens when the dimensions are reduce helps to improve the accuracy of prediction 20
  • 21. Logistic Regression for Click Prediction 21
  • 22. How Does The Model Work? – Classification Algorithms learns from Examples in a process known as Training – Need Training Data and Decide on Training Algorithm • Choose between Logistic Regression and Google’s combined regression and ranking – Need to specify the input values (Predictors) and output values (Target) in the training data • Predicting Clicks probability is the Target variable • User and Item features are the input variables 22
  • 23. Choosing Products for customer and Ordering Customer Details Click Prediction Sale Items Model for Product Items Display Chosen Order 23
  • 24. Conclusion • On the basis of our on-line surveys, face-to- face survey and analysis of studies done by others we conclude that the opportunity for a Marketing application based on Big data and Machine Learning is great. In a scale of 1-10 we rate this opportunity at 9 24