Proportional Hazard Model for Predicting Stroke Mortality โดย พิมพ์ชนก พุฒขาว รศ.ดร.เดือนเพ็ญ ธีรวรรณวิวัฒน์
ใน Demographic and Actuarial Analytics .ในงาน THE FIRST NIDA BUSINESS ANALYTICS AND DATA SCIENCES CONTEST/CONFERENCE จัดโดย คณะสถิติประยุกต์และ DATA SCIENCES THAILAND
5. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Stroke
CHD
Year
Data source: The Bureau of Policy and Strategy, Ministry of Public Health of Thailand
%
Mortality rate/100,000 population
5
10. • Prospective cohort study เป็นระเบียบวิธีวิจัย
เชิงสังเกต ที่ทาให้ทราบถึงความสัมพันธ์เชิงเหตุผล
(causality)
• Framingham Heart Study เป็นโครงการวิจัย
prospective cohort study ที่มีชื่อเสียงในระดับโลก
โอกาสพัฒนา
10
11. • Recruited 5,209 men and women between the age of 30 and 62
from the town of Framingham and Massachusetts, began the
first round of extensive physical examinations and lifestyle
interview since 1948
• 5,124 children and their spouses were enrolled in the Farmingham
Offspring Study in 1971
• Their grandchildren were enrolled in 2012
• The study success in identifying the cardiovascular disease
(CVD) risk factors
11
12. • The concept of CVD risk factors of their study has become and
integral part of the modern medical curriculum and has led to
the development of effective treatment and preventive
strategies in clinical practice
• Since 1951 the Framingham Heart Study has published in peer
reviewed medical journals about 3,169 articles and all of them
are very useful for cardiovascular disease control
12
18. 0.097 0.106
0.233 0.242
0.211 0.220
0.337 0.309
0.122 0.123
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
NSO TES
South
North-East
North
Central
BKK
NSO: Census data from National Statistical Office; 2000
N= 14,143,394 N= 19,620
Proportion of study sample compared with Thai population
18
19. 19
1. Demographic data
2. Previous stroke
3. Socioeconomic status
4. Medical history
5. Family history
6. Smoking status
7. Alcohol consumption
8. Physical activity
9. Snoring status
10. Contraceptive pills
11. Hormonal replacement therapy
12. Mental stress
13. Mood depression
14. Food frequency
Baseline health status survey: Interview variables
23. 1. To determine the association of various factors, including
demographic characteristics, behavioral, biomedical,
environmental, and genetic factors with stroke mortality
2. To construct the stroke mortality model life table in
Thailand
วัตถุประสงค์
23
24. • Stroke definition
• The world Health Organization (WHO) has recommened standard
definition for stroke or cerebrovascular disease in medical term,
that is “A focal (or at times global) neurological impairment of
sudden onset, and lasting more than 24 hours (or leading to
death), and of presumed vascular origin”
• The International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related
Health Problems Tenth revision (ICD-10) has stated stroke in
Chapter IX as diseases of circulation system and defined ICD-10
code I60-I69 for cerebrovarcular diseases
การทบทวนวรรณกรรม
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25. • Types of stroke
There are two main types of stroke
1. Ischemic stroke
Ischemic is the more common type of stroke. An ischemic stroke
occurs if an artery supplies oxygen-rich blood to the brain
becomes blocked. Blood clots often cause the blockages that
lead to ischemic strokes.
2. Hemorrhagic stroke
hemorrhagic stroke occurred if an artery in the brain leaks blood
or ruptures (break open). The pressure from the leaked blood
damages brain cells.
การทบทวนวรรณกรรม
25
27. • No stroke incident data in Thailand
• Stroke prevalence
- Stoke prevalence differed among five geographic region with the
highest prevalence in Bangkok (3.34%) , followed by Central (2.41%),
Southern (2.29%), Northern (1.46%), and Northeastern region (1.09%)
(Hanchaiphiboolkul, 2011)
การทบทวนวรรณกรรม
Study
year
Age
of population
Prevalence/100,000
population
1983 > 20 690
1994-1996 > 60 1,120
2004-2006 45-80 1,880
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28. • Factor affecting / Risk factor
WHO has state risk factor as any attribute, characteristic or
exposure of an individual that increases the likelihood of
developing a disease or injury
The Australian institute of health and welfare has define the risk
factors to health in five groups
1. Demographic risk factors
2. Behavioral risk factors
3. Biomedical risk factors
4. Environment risk factors
5. Genetic risk factors
การทบทวนวรรณกรรม
28
29. • Factors affecting /Risk factor of stroke mortality
• Global
• Age, male gender
• Socioeconomic status
• Passive smoking, Alcohol consumption
• BMI
• Depression
• Systolic blood pressure, Pulse pressure, Hypertension
• Historical stroke, Coronary artery disease, Artial fibrillation, Left ventricular
hypertrophy
• Impair glucose tolerance, uric acid, serum potassium and sodium
• Urban living
การทบทวนวรรณกรรม
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30. • Factors affecting /Risk factor of stroke mortality
• Thailand
There is less information about stroke mortality risk factors in
Thailand. However, Thailand has some strong evidence about
stroke prevalence and risk factors
• Age, Male gender, Occupation, Education level, Low personal income,
• Geographic area/region
• Alcohol consumption, Current smoking
• Hypertension, Diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia
การทบทวนวรรณกรรม
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32. • Study design and population
• This dissertation conducted under the Thai Epidemiologic
Stroke (TES) Study
• Ongoing community-based Prospective Cohort Study
• Enrolled a total of 19,620 general population,
• aged 45-80 year olds
• from Bangkok and four communities in each geographic regions
of Thailand
• stroke free at health status survey period in 2004-2006
• Follow-up until death/withdraws/lost follow-up occurred or
study end (31 December 2014)
ระเบียบวิธีวิจัย
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33. 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008- 2012 2013- 2017
Preparation
Baseline survey
of health status
Case ascertainment
/Follow-up
Activities
Year
31 December 201428 July 2004 n = 19,620
Person-years = 169,729 33
Study timeline
35. • This dissertation focused on factors which were corrected at
baseline health status survey in 2004-2006
1) Demographic factors
sex, age, religion, marital status, socioeconomic status (SES)
2) Behavioral factors
smoking, alcohol drinking, physical activities, snoring, the drug
used, contraceptive, hormone replacement, and food
consumptions
Measurement of affecting factors
35
36. • Measurement of affecting factors
This dissertation focused on factors which were corrected at baseline
health status survey in 2004-2006
3) Biomedical factors
obesity, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia,
heart disease, depression, and stress
4) Environment factor
the region of living
5) Genetic factors
family health history (hypertension, diabetes mellitus,
hypercholesterolemia, heart disease)
Measurement of affecting factors
36
38. • competing risk survival analysis
Interesting event (stroke death and other causes of death)
The start time defined as register date and the time end is
death/withdraws/lost follow-up date or study end (31
December 2014)
• Double decrement life table
use for cohort death experience
define two ways to exit from the cohort, stroke death and
others cause of death
การวิเคราะห์ข้อมูล
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