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Some Observations on Trade Relations between Austria and Turkey Prof. Dr. Aykut Kibritçioğlu Section for Economic Development and International Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Political Sciences, Ankara University, Turkey http://kibritcioglu.com/iktisat/ & kibritcioglu@ankara.edu.trPanel Discussion chaired by Governor Ewald Nowotny (OeNB) on: “Turkish-AustrianEconomic Relations in a European and International Context”. Panelists: Murat Çetinkaya(CBRT), Ayşe Sezgin (MFA), Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer (VIG), Aykut Kibritçioğlu (AU).Österreichische Nationalbank, KassensaalVienna, March 18, 2013 1 / 38

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Turkey and Austria: Two Different Economies with Weak Linkages? Annual Inflation Rate (2010-12, HICP, A Comparison Turkey %) according to Selected 9 Austria Seven Indicators 6 External balance of goods and Unemployment Rate (2012.11, %) 3 services / GDP (2010-12, %) 0 -3 -6 -9 Energy intensity of the economy Real GDP Growth (2010-12, %) (2010, kgoe per 10 euro) Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions Annual Population Growth (2009-11, (2009-10, in CO2 equivalent, 1990 = %) 2.0)Source: Eurostat, http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu, March 5, 2013 2 / 38

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Movement of Goods, Services & Factors among Two Economies: Direct & Indirect Linkages Trade in Goods Trade in Services Labor Movements Capital Movements Technology Transfer TURKEY AUSTRIA Trade in Goods Trade in Goods Trade in Services Trade in Services Labor Movements Labor Movements Capital Movements Capital Movements Technology Transfer Technology Transfer Trade in Goods Trade in Services Trade in Goods Third Labor Movements Trade in Services Capital Movements Labor Movements Technology Transfer Capital Movements Technology Transfer Countries Quick Answer? Joint economic activities in third countries? OECD-WTO: TiVA ? 3 / 38

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Turkey: open to trade, but low “per capita trade” Austria: member of the “trade nations club”? 160 United Arab Major Trade Partners Emirates of Austria (2011): 140 EU27 Trade to GDP ratio (%, 2009-2011) 120 Iraq Switzerland Switzerland China Korea Austria USA 100 S. Arabia Russian Federation Germany 80 Major Trade Partners Israel of Turkey (2011): Iran UK 60 China France EU27 Russian Fed. Turkey Russian Federation 40 China EU27 USA USA Brasil 20 Iraq Iran 0 United Arab Emirates 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 Trade per capita (US$, 2009-2011)Source: WTO Statistics Database (SDB), http://stat.wto.org, September 2012 4 / 38

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Merchandise Trade by Commodity (mln. USD at current prices, 1980 & 2011) Share in Share in Increase (%, Indicator Flow Reporter Partner 1980 2011 World ... World ... from 1980 to (%, 1980) (%, 2011) 2011) Agricultural products Exports Austria World 2100 17356 0.7 1.0 726 Agricultural products Exports Turkey World 1881 14949 0.6 0.9 695 Agricultural products Exports World World 298800 1659524 100.0 100.0 455 Agricultural products Imports Austria World 2517 17797 0.8 1.0 607 Agricultural products Imports Turkey World 388 17574 0.1 1.0 4429 Agricultural products Imports World World 312217 1745208 100.0 100.0 459 Manufactures Exports Austria World 14531 145072 1.3 1.3 898 Manufactures Exports Turkey World 782 104210 0.1 0.9 13226 Manufactures Exports World World 1092378 11510949 100.0 100.0 954 Manufactures Imports Austria World 16849 136421 1.5 1.1 710 Manufactures Imports Turkey World 3265 142034 0.3 1.2 4250 Manufactures Imports World World 1110747 11927185 100.0 100.0 974  Both Turkey and Austria increased their exports & imports to/from the rest of the world between 1980 and 2011, in terms of trade values.  Austrian shares in world exports & imports of agricultural products increased, while its share in imports of manufacturing goods decreased slightly.  Turkey’s shares in global exports & imports of both, agricultural and manufacturing commodities increased significantly.Source: WTO Statistics Database (SDB), http://stat.wto.org, September 2012 5 / 38

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Turkey & Austria within the Network of Global Trade in Goods (%, World = 100, 1980 & 2011)1980 (W=>W: 100) Importing Countries Turkey Austria Rest of the World World (Total) Turkey 0.00 0.15 0.15 Countries Exporting Austria 0.01 0.91 0.91 Rest of the World 0.14 0.89 97.91 98.94 World (Total) 0.15 0.89 98.96 100.002011 (W=>W: 100) Importing Countries Turkey Austria Rest of the World World (Total) Turkey 0.01 0.75 0.76 Countries Exporting Austria 0.01 0.95 0.96 Rest of the World 1.16 1.00 96.11 98.28 World (Total) 1.17 1.01 97.82 100.00  Both countries’ shares in global trade in goods are, and were, limited, but Turkey increased her world share remarkably within the last three decades.Source: IMF eLibrary, Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) Database, http://elibrary-data.imf.org 6 / 38

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Turkey & Austria within the Network of Global Trade in Goods (TR X = 1.0, 1980 & 2011)1980 (TR=>AU: 1.0) Importing Countries Turkey Austria Rest of the World World (Total) Turkey 1.0 53 54 Countries Exporting Austria 1.8 323 325 Rest of the World 50 316 34902 35269 World (Total) 52 317 35278 356482011 (TR=>AU: 1.0) Importing Countries Turkey Austria Rest of the World World (Total) Turkey 1.0 127 128 Countries Exporting Austria 1.7 161 163 Rest of the World 197 169 16277 16644 World (Total) 199 170 16566 16935  However, the relative global importance of trade between Turkey and Austria has not increased significantly.Source: IMF eLibrary, Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) Database, http://elibrary-data.imf.org 7 / 38

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Country Composition of Austrian Exports (%, 1960-2011) (Reporter: Austria, Exports, %) 100% Turkey Rest of the World 90% Middle East & North Africa 80% Russian Federation China 70% Switzerland USA 60% EU12 (new members) EU13 (old members) 50% Germany 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 190 000 180 000 170 000 160 000 150 000 140 000 130 000 Turkey Rest of the Wor ld Midd le Eas t & North Africa Russian Federa tion Chin a Swit zerlan d 1960 1964 1966 1968 1970 1974 1978 1980 1982 1984 1988 1992 1994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 1962 1972 1976 1986 1990 2000 2010 120 000 USA 110 000 EU12 (new mem bers) 100 000 EU13 (old m embers) 90 000 Germ any 80 000 70 000 60 000 50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000 0 1962 1970 1980 1988 1992 2000 2006 2010 1960 1964 1966 1968 1972 1974 1976 1978 1982 1984 1986 1990 1994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2008  Turkey is not a major target country for Austrian exporters.  Their destination is mainly (old, and now also new) EU countries.Source: IMF eLibrary, Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) Database, http://elibrary-data.imf.org 8 / 38

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Country Composition of Austrian Imports (Reporter: Austria, Imports, %) (%, 1960-2011) 100% Turkey 90% Rest of the World Middle East & North Africa 80% Russian Federation China 70% Switzerland USA 60% EU12 (new members) EU13 (old members) 50% Germany 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 190 00 0 180 00 0 170 00 0 160 00 0 150 00 0 140 00 0 Turkey Re st of the World Middle Eas t & North Af rica Russian Fe deration China 130 00 0 Sw itzerla nd 120 00 0 USA 1966 1970 1972 1976 1978 1980 1984 1992 1998 2000 2004 2006 2008 2010 1960 1962 1964 1968 1974 1982 1986 1988 1990 1994 1996 2002 110 00 0 EU12 (new m embers) 100 00 0 EU13 (old me mbe rs) 90 00 0 Ge rm any 80 00 0 70 00 0 60 00 0 50 00 0 40 00 0 30 00 0 20 00 0 10 00 0 0 1 96 0 1 99 6 19 62 196 4 19 66 196 8 1 970 19 72 1 974 19 76 1 978 19 80 198 2 19 84 198 6 1 988 199 0 1 992 19 94 19 98 2 000 20 02 200 4 2 006 20 08 2 010  Turkey is not a major source country for imported goods to Austria.  Germany & EU13 are the main exporters to Austria. After 1994, the new EU countries are gaining on importance in Austrian imports.Source: IMF eLibrary, Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) Database, http://elibrary-data.imf.org 9 / 38

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Country Composition of Turkish Exports (%, 1960-2011) (Reporter: Turkey, Exports, %) 100% Austria 90% Rest of the World Middle East & North Africa 80% Russian Federation China 70% Switzerland USA 60% EU12 (new members) EU13 (old members) 50% Germany 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 140 000 Austria 130 000 Rest of the W orld 120 000 Midd e East & North Africa l 110 000 Russian Federation China 100 000 Sw itzer land 90 000 USA 80 000 EU12 (new members) EU13 (old mem bers) 70 000 Germany 60 000 1966 1970 1972 1976 1978 1980 1984 1992 1998 2000 2004 2006 2008 2010 1960 1962 1964 1968 1974 1982 1986 1988 1990 1994 1996 2002 50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1990 2008 2010 1984 1986 1988 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006  Austria is not a major target country for Turkish exporters.  Their destination is mainly EU (old, and now new) countries.Source: IMF eLibrary, Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) Database, http://elibrary-data.imf.org 10 / 38

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Changes in Country Composition of Turkish Exports (%, 1948-2011) 100 0 Country Shares in Turkish Exports (1948-2011) (Reporter: Turkey) Rest Middle East of the & North World 50 Africa 50 1957 2011 1950 1987 1982 0 100 100 50 EU27 Countries 0Source: IMF eLibrary, Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) Database, http://elibrary-data.imf.org 11 / 38

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Country Composition of Turkish Imports (%, 1960-2011) (Reporter: Turkey, Imports, %) 100% Austria 90% Rest of the World Middle East & North Africa 80% Russian Federation China 70% Switzerland USA 60% EU12 (new members) EU13 (old members) 50% Germany 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 240 000 230 000 Austria 220 000 Rest of the W orld 210 000 Midd e East & North Africa l 200 000 190 000 Russian Federation 180 000 China 170 000 Sw itzer land 160 000 150 000 USA 140 000 EU12 (new members) 130 000 EU13 (old mem bers) 120 000 110 000 Germany 100 000 1966 1970 1972 1976 1978 1980 1984 1992 1998 2000 2004 2006 2008 2010 1960 1962 1964 1968 1974 1982 1986 1988 1990 1994 1996 2002 90 000 80 000 70 000 60 000 50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000 0 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1990 2008 2010 1984 1986 1988 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006  Austria is not a major source country for Turkey’s imported goods from abroad. Again, the EU27 ist the …Source: IMF eLibrary, Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) Database, http://elibrary-data.imf.org 12 / 38