“The Role of Asia in the Global Economy - Current Strengths and Vulnerabilities” Dan O’Brien, Chief Economist, Institute of International and European Affairs speaking on June 6 at the Fourth EU Asia Top Economist Round Table during Asia Business Week Dublin 2014

1. ASIA BUSINESS WEEK DUBLIN
Fourth EU Asia Top Economist Round Table
6 June 2014
The Role ofAsia in the Global Economy – Current Strengths and Vulnerabilities
Dan O’Brien
Chief Economist, Institute for International and European Affairs
Kindly sponsored by:

2. dan.obrien@iiea.com Twitter: @danobrien20
The Role of Asia in the World Economy
Dan O’Brien
Chief Economist
Institute for International and European Affairs

3. Demographics as destiny
• The world economy is rebalancing to reflect
population distribution
• West V rest income disparities since industrial
revolution are a historical anomaly

4. The world's most populous countries
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6

6. • Asia is leading the rest in the catch up
process
• The West (including Japan) is slowing
• Secular stagnation?
• The end of growth?

7. 0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1980S 1990S 2000S
GNI PER CAPITA
AVERAGE ANNUAL % CHANGE

8. GDP growth, annual % change
(five year rolling average)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Major advanced
economies (G7)
World

9. Half a century of slowdown
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07 1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
EU15 GDP growth
(% annual change, five year rolling average)

10. • Asia’s share of global imports is growing
• But geography is still crucial
– Distance is not dead
• Foreign direct investment is deepest form
of integration
– Transatlantic relationship

11. 0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2003 2008 2012
Irish exports of goods and services to China (€m)

12. 0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2003 2008 2012
Exports to China as % share of total Irish exports

13. 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Developing Asia
% share of world outward FDI stock

14. Asia strengths
• Catch up potential
• Integration potential
• High savings and investment
• Rise of Asian multinationals

15. Asia challenges
• China bubble?
• Abenomics?
• Modi-nomics?
• North-East Asia security issues
• South China Sea security issues

16. Thank you
dan.obrien@iiea.com
Twitter: @danobrien20