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Financial Analysis for Management Consultants & Analysts

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Financial Analysis for Management Consultants & Analysts

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During many consulting projects, you will have to do a lot of financial analysis and draw conclusions about specific companies or industries. This is especially true during due diligence projects, strategic projects and turn-arounds. Financial analyses will help you decide which option is better, what investments you should take, estimate potential improvements or estimate the impact on the profit and the balance sheet. On top of that, during consulting projects, you have to do everything 3x faster and with little data. Therefore, I will teach you in this course how to do fast and efficiently financial analyses and how to draw conclusions from them
In the course you will learn the following things:
1. How to do financial analyses in Excel fast and efficiently
2. How to draw conclusions from the analyses
3. How to analyze financial statements in Excel
4. How to use financial indicators
5. How to model a business in Excel
6. How to analyze business units of the firm
7. How to carry out analyses related to M&A
8. How to evaluate potential investment in Excel
9. How to estimate the value of the firm using simple methods

For more check the following course: http://bit.ly/FinancialAnalysisExcel

During many consulting projects, you will have to do a lot of financial analysis and draw conclusions about specific companies or industries. This is especially true during due diligence projects, strategic projects and turn-arounds. Financial analyses will help you decide which option is better, what investments you should take, estimate potential improvements or estimate the impact on the profit and the balance sheet. On top of that, during consulting projects, you have to do everything 3x faster and with little data. Therefore, I will teach you in this course how to do fast and efficiently financial analyses and how to draw conclusions from them
In the course you will learn the following things:
1. How to do financial analyses in Excel fast and efficiently
2. How to draw conclusions from the analyses
3. How to analyze financial statements in Excel
4. How to use financial indicators
5. How to model a business in Excel
6. How to analyze business units of the firm
7. How to carry out analyses related to M&A
8. How to evaluate potential investment in Excel
9. How to estimate the value of the firm using simple methods

For more check the following course: http://bit.ly/FinancialAnalysisExcel

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Financial Analysis for Management Consultants & Analysts

  1. 1. 1 Financial Analysis for Management Consultants & Business Analysts Practical guide with case studies & real-life examples
  2. 2. 2 In business you have to make a lot of important decisions During consulting projects you will have to do a lot of financial analyses to see whether proposed changes make sense or not
  3. 3. 3 In business you have to make a lot of important decisions A lot of such analyses require some skills in Excel but also a specific approach to available data. Usually they don’t teach that at the university
  4. 4. 4 Luckily, there is a way to do fast and efficiently financial analyses in Excel and I will show you how to do that in this course.
  5. 5. 5 In business you have to make a lot of important decisions Thanks to this presentation you will have a look at the most important essential financial analysis you need to know to work without any problems during consulting projects
  6. 6. 6 We will cover all the essential things that you need to know to work well during consulting Analyzing Financial Statements Financial indicators Modeling P&L Introduction to Valuation Analysis of Business Units Financial analysis related to M&A Investments Analysis
  7. 7. 7 What you will see in this presentation is a part of my online course where you can find case studies showing analyses along with detailed calculations in Excel Financial Analysis for Management Consultants $190 $19 Click here to check my course
  8. 8. 8 General Analysis of Financial Statements
  9. 9. 9 General Analysis of Financial Statements – Introduction
  10. 10. 10 In this section we will discuss the following things 3 financial statements – overview Amazon financial statements – Analysis in Excel
  11. 11. 11 In this section we will discuss the following things 3 financial statements – overview Amazon financial statements – Analysis in Excel LPP financial statements – Analysis in Excel Disney financial statements – Analysis in Excel
  12. 12. 12 3 financial statements
  13. 13. 13 There are 3 financial statements that you have to look at when analyzing the firm Profit & Loss / Income Statement Balance Sheet Cash flow  Shows how much money you have earned, and did you make a profit or a loss?  Shows how you did it, what where the revenue and how much you had to spend in terms of costs to generate them?  Shows what you have / what you need to have a legitimate business  Shows you also where you got the money from to buy the things you have (shareholders, banks, suppliers, other borrowers etc.)  Shows how much money the firm has actually generated and what has consumed the cash on 3 levels  You can see what the firm spends the cash on: investment, paying off debts, buying back shares or maybe paying of dividends  Cash is divided into 3 streams: Operating CF, Investing CF and Financing CF
  14. 14. 14 Financial analysis of indicators
  15. 15. 15 Financial analysis of indicators – Introduction
  16. 16. 16 In this section we will discuss the following things Profitability ratios Liquidity ratios Activity ratios Debt ratios Case study
  17. 17. 17 Profitability ratios – Overview
  18. 18. 18 There are plenty of profitability ratios used. Below the most popular ones % Gross Margin % Gross Profit % EBIT Return on Sales ROS % Net Income % EBITDA ROE ROA
  19. 19. 19 Let’s have a look at the definition of ratios and what they tell us Gross Margin % Gross Margin = Net Sales
  20. 20. 20 Let’s have a look at the definition of ratios and what they tell us Operating Income EBIT % EBIT Return on Sales - ROS = Net Sales
  21. 21. 21 Let’s have a look at the definition of ratios and what they tell us Net Income Net Profit % Net Income Profit Margin = Net Sales
  22. 22. 22 Let’s have a look at the definition of ratios and what they tell us EBITDA % EBITDA = Net Sales
  23. 23. 23 Let’s have a look at the definition of ratios and what they tell us Net Income ROA (Return on Assets) = Assets
  24. 24. 24 Let’s have a look at the definition of ratios and what they tell us Net Income ROE (Return on Equity) = Equity
  25. 25. 25 ROE decomposition
  26. 26. 26 ROE can be decomposed into other ratios. Below one example Net Income ROE = Assets x Assets Equity ROE = xROA Equity Multiplier Net Income Equity = Net Income Equity =
  27. 27. 27 ROE can be decomposed into other ratios. Below one example Sales = Assets x Assets Equity Net Income Sales x Net Income Equity ROE = xAsset Turnover Equity Multiplierx% Net Income
  28. 28. 28 Liquidity ratios – Overview
  29. 29. 29 There are plenty of liquidity ratios used. Below the most popular ones Current Ratio (CR) Quick Ratio (QR) Cash Ratio (CshR) Operating Cash Flow Ratio
  30. 30. 30 Let’s have a look at the definition of ratios and what they tell us Current Assets Current Ratio (CR) = Current Liabilities
  31. 31. 31 Let’s have a look at the definition of ratios and what they tell us Current Assets Quick Ratio (QR) = Current Liabilities - Inventory & Prepayments
  32. 32. 32 Let’s have a look at the definition of ratios and what they tell us Cash & Cash Equivalents Cash Ratio (CshR) = Current Liabilities
  33. 33. 33 Let’s have a look at the definition of ratios and what they tell us Operating Cash Flow Operating Cash Flow Ratio = Total Debt
  34. 34. 34 Activity / Efficiency ratios – Overview
  35. 35. 35 There are plenty of activity / efficiency ratios used. Below the most popular ones Inventory conversion period Receivables conversion period Payables conversion period Cash Conversion Cycle Asset turnover
  36. 36. 36 Conversion periods have alternative names that are widely used Inventory conversion period Receivables conversion period Payables conversion period Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO) Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) Days Payable Outstanding (DPO) = = =
  37. 37. 37 Let’s have a look at the definition of ratios and what they tell us Inventory Inventory conversion period = COGS x 365 days
  38. 38. 38 Let’s have a look at the definition of ratios and what they tell us Receivables Receivables conversion period = Net Sales x 365 days
  39. 39. 39 Let’s have a look at the definition of ratios and what they tell us Account Payables Payables conversion period = COGS x 365 days
  40. 40. 40 Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC) we calculate using previous ratios Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC) = - Receivables conversion period Payables conversion period + Inventory conversion period Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC) = - Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) Days Payable Outstanding (DPO) + Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO)
  41. 41. 41 Let’s have a look at the definition of ratios and what they tell us Net Sales Asset Turnover = Assets
  42. 42. 42 Debt ratios – Overview
  43. 43. 43 There are plenty of debt ratios used. Below the most popular ones Debt Ratio Debt to Equity ratio (D/E) Net Debt-to-EBITDA Ratio
  44. 44. 44 Debt Ratio can be defined in 2 ways Debt Debt Ratio = Assets Liabilities Debt Ratio = Assets
  45. 45. 45 Let’s have a look at the definition of ratios and what they tell us Debt Debt to Equity ratio (D/E) = Equity
  46. 46. 46 Let’s have a look at the definition of ratios and what they tell us Debt Net Debt-to-EBITDA Ratio = EBITDA - Cash & Cash Equivalents
  47. 47. 47 For more details and content check my online course where you can find case studies showing analyses along with detailed calculations in Excel Financial Analysis for Management Consultants $190 $19 Click here to check my course
  48. 48. 48 Modeling of Profit & Loss statement in practice
  49. 49. 49 Modeling of Profit & Loss statement in practice – Introduction
  50. 50. 50 In business you have to make a lot of important decisions You can learn a lot by analyzing the business model in Excel. This is one of the most insightful yet also most difficult financial analysis
  51. 51. 51 Modeling of the business in Excel should be done in stages. You first have to understand the drivers # transactions Average revenue per transaction Total revenuex % Fee of the marketplace Average transaction value Total searches % conversion x x Total Costs Total margin - Rent People Cost of traffic Ratio of visitors to searches Average cost of 1 visit + x Development
  52. 52. 52 In this section we will discuss the following things How to model Retail in Excel How to model SMCG businesses in Excel Moving from SMCG to selling services – financial analysis
  53. 53. 53 Main challenges in the business model Main drivers / KPIs for the business model The model of the business in Excel Short introduction to the business model For every business model we will do the following things
  54. 54. 54 Main challenges in Retail
  55. 55. 55 Let’s have a look at the main challenges in Retail Margin Management Stock / Inventory Management Multichannel Strategy Managing price across channels Expansion to new markets Saturation of existing markets New product development Managing customer experience across channels Format evolution (possible death) People rotation and knowledge management Disruption esp. from external forces / business models Automation
  56. 56. 56 Business model of a Retailer in Excel
  57. 57. 57 The retail business model is driven by some basic KPIs # Transactions Average Value Transaction Total store revenue Total store costs x Store EBITDA Average Value Transaction of basic purchase Average Value Transaction of additional purchase # of Visitors % Conversion Rent People # of People Average wages + x x Others + # of sq. m Fee per sq. m x % Gross Margin Gross Margin generated by the store x -
  58. 58. 58 Modeling SMCG Business Model in Excel – Introduction
  59. 59. 59 SMCG are all branded goods that you consume infrequently during your life. In this category we have cars, domestic appliances and other similar products
  60. 60. 60 There are 2 ways in which you can model SMCG SMCG – sold as a product SMCG – sold as a service
  61. 61. 61 In this section I will talk about 3 main things Main challanges in SMCG KPIs for SMCG business Business models of SMCG in Excel
  62. 62. 62 Main challenges in SMCG
  63. 63. 63 Brand Awareness & Reach Controling and constantly lowering production costs Your strategy across many channels Managing customer experience across channels Saturation point in consumption and penetration Spreading beyond original target group and leveraging brand Taking care of faulty products Managing older versions of your product Switch from product to service The software part of the product / IoT The value of your customer base Below a list of the most important aspect for SMCG business model
  64. 64. 64 Main KPIs for the SMCG business model
  65. 65. 65 The SMCG business model is driven by some basic KPIs # sold Unit production cost Gross Margin Head office Operational profit Fixed Cost / Quantity produced Unit variable cost + Cost of sales & marketing Net Margin - - Average price Unit Gross Margin - x Market share Market size
  66. 66. 66 SMCG business model – modeling in Excel
  67. 67. 67 There are 2 ways in which you can model SMCG SMCG – sold as a product SMCG – sold as a service
  68. 68. 68 Vaccum cleaner producer – modeled as product seller Smartphone firm– modeled as a provider of a service We will go through those 2 approaches using different cases
  69. 69. 69 SMCG business model in Excel – basic assumptions
  70. 70. 70 Vaccum cleaner producer – modeled as product seller Smartphone firm– modeled as a provider of a service Let's start with the modelling vacuum cleaner producer
  71. 71. 71 Vaccum cleaner producer – modeled as product seller Smartphone firm– modeled as a provider of a service Let's start with the modelling vacuum cleaner producer
  72. 72. 72 Let’s go through basic assumptions of the model. We want to get to the operational profit SMCG product MarketingSales Channels  Vacuum cleaners  1 production site  Own e-commerce  Retail chain  TV ads  Market research  Social Media  Mailing  Loyalty program  Outdoor campaigns
  73. 73. 73 Modeling the SMCG as service – Introduction
  74. 74. 74 Vaccum cleaner producer – modeled as product seller Smartphone firm– modeled as a provider of a service We said we will do modelling for 2 different products and also in different way
  75. 75. 75 Vaccum cleaner producer – modeled as product seller Smartphone firm– modeled as a provider of a service We said we will do modelling for 2 different products and also in different way
  76. 76. 76 He currently sells around 600 K smartphones and has a bas of around 1 M customers He has to acquire new customers to cover for the lost ones and grow He considers switching to offering annual subsription model To make the change more obvious we will first do a case of a firm that moves from product to service and wants to do calculate whether it makes sense
  77. 77. 77 To make the change more obvious we will first do a case of a firm that moves from product to service and wants to do calculate whether it makes sense Why moving from product to service makes sense? Case study of a smartphone producer Solution in Excel to the case study Modeling Head Office costs Modeling Head Office profit & loss statement
  78. 78. 78 For more details and content check my online course where you can find case studies showing analyses along with detailed calculations in Excel Financial Analysis for Management Consultants $190 $19 Click here to check my course
  79. 79. 79 Business Units Analyses
  80. 80. 80 Business Units Analyses – Introduction
  81. 81. 81 In many cases the business you want to analyze are very complicated. You have to look deeper. You have to analyze specific business units to understand the result and the future
  82. 82. 82 This obviously means that you have to divide into business units that you want to analyze separately and draw conclusions on their performance
  83. 83. 83 In this section we will discuss the following things Why analysis of Business Units makes sense Analysis of Business Units – Disney Analysis of Business Units – Grocery Discounter
  84. 84. 84 Why analysis of Business Units makes sense
  85. 85. 85 Let’s have a look why it makes sense to look at business units in details On aggregated level you have averaging effect Business units may have different business models Business units may have different growth perspectives Business units may have different margins Business units may require different Capex Business units may have different competitors Business units usually have different drivers & KPIs You can sell some business units
  86. 86. 86 Overview of Business models
  87. 87. 87 SaaS E-commerce Media site 2-sided market User Generated Content Mobile Applications Retail B2C Service B2B Service FMCG SMCG Commodity There are 6 offline business models and 6 online models. Every business model has its set of KPI
  88. 88. 88 SaaS E-commerce Media site2-sided market UGC B2B Service B2C ServiceRetail Bear in mind that big companies can operate many business models
  89. 89. 89 Analysis of Business Units – Groceries Discounter – Case Introduction
  90. 90. 90 Imagine that you have to analyze the performance of difference concepts and regions of a Grocery Discounter. You have data on the store level.
  91. 91. 91 Let’s have a look at the data that we have on the Grocery Discounter He currently has 700 stores He operates 4 concepts: Mini, Express, Regular, Big He operates in 10 regions Have a look at results on the level of concepts & regions Look at revenue and EBITDA per store
  92. 92. 92 Valuation
  93. 93. 93 Valuation Case study– Introduction
  94. 94. 94 In this section we will discuss the following things Introduction to Valuation Introduction to DCF methods Difference between FCFF and FCFE Introduction to using multipliers for valuation Case study
  95. 95. 95 We are going back to our example of ceramic tiles producer and we will see what kind of methods we can use to estimate its valuation.
  96. 96. 96 They have 4 groups of products We have DCF models Use DCF and multiplier method to estimate their value Just as a reminder a few information about the firm
  97. 97. 97 Introduction to Valuation
  98. 98. 98 You can try to estimate the value of 2 different categories Enterprise Value Equity Value Net Debt Value
  99. 99. 99 For valuations you can use 2 groups of valuations methods DCF methods  DCF of Free Cash Flows to Firm (FCFF)  DCF of Free Cash Flows to Equity (FCFE) Multiplier methods  EV/EBIT  EV/EBITDA  P/E ratio
  100. 100. 100 Introduction to DCF methods
  101. 101. 101 In DCF model you use forecast of cash flows to estimate the value of the company Step 1 – Calculate the cash flows 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 𝐶𝐹2018 𝐶𝐹2019 𝐶𝐹2020 𝐶𝐹2021 𝐶𝐹2022 t+1 𝐶𝐹𝑡+1 𝐶𝐹2018 (1 + 𝑟) 𝐶𝐹2019 (1 + 𝑟)2 𝐶𝐹2020 (1 + 𝑟)3 𝐶𝐹2021 (1 + 𝑟)4 𝐶𝐹2022 (1 + 𝑟)5 𝐶𝐹𝑡+1 (1 + 𝑟) 𝑡+1 𝒊=𝟏 𝒕 𝑪𝑭𝒊 (𝟏 + 𝒓)𝒊 Step 2 – Calculate the present value of CF Step 3 – Calculate the Valuation 𝑻𝒆𝒓𝒎𝒊𝒏𝒂𝒍 𝑽𝒂𝒍𝒖𝒆 (𝟏 + 𝒓) 𝒕+𝟏 Step 3 – Calculate the Valuation + 𝑇𝑒𝑟𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 = 𝐶𝐹𝑡+1 (𝑟 − 𝑔) Step 3 – Calculate the Valuation Step 3 – Calculate Terminal (Continuing) Value 𝑇𝑒𝑟𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 = 𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇𝐷𝐴 𝑥 𝑀𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑖𝑝𝑙𝑖𝑒𝑟
  102. 102. 102 In the next lecture we will use 2 different methods for DCF valuation Free Cash Flows to Firm (FCFF) Free Cash Flows to Equity (FCFE) Cash flow before financial activities
  103. 103. 103 Difference between FCFF and FCFE
  104. 104. 104 In the next lecture we will use 2 different methods for DCF valuation Free Cash Flows to Equity (FCFE)  DCF Cash Flow before financial activities  As a discounting rate we use Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)  The Terminal Value is calculated using 3% growth rate assumed after the period of forecast  DCF Free Cash Flows to Equity  As a discounting rate we use cost of equity  The Terminal Value is calculated using 3% growth rate assumed after the period of forecast Free Cash Flows to Firm (FCFF)
  105. 105. 105 FCFF and FCFE evaluate different things Enterprise Value Net Equity Value Net Debt Value  Cash flow before financial activities / Free Cash Flows to Equity (FCFF) estimates the Enterprise Value  Afterwards using the Net Debt Value you can estimate Equity  Free Cash Flows to Equity (FCFF) estimates Equity Value
  106. 106. 106 Introduction to using multipliers for valuation
  107. 107. 107 For simplicity often valuation is calculated using multipliers. Multipliers also help you check the valuation from DCF which is subject to many assumptions EV/EBIT EV/EBITDA P/E ratio
  108. 108. 108 Using the Multiplier method of valuation is relatively easy Find comparable companies Estimate the multipliers for the comparable. Eliminate outliers Estimate the EBIT, EBITDA and net profit for the company and adjust them Apply the multiplier Estimate Equity Value
  109. 109. 109 The methods we discussed estimate different values Enterprise Value Equity Value Net Debt Value  Using EV/EBITDA multiplier and EV/EBIT you can estimate the Enterprise Value  Using P/E ratio you can estimate Equity Value
  110. 110. 110 Below how we can use the EV/EBIT multiplier to estimate the Equity Value in 2 steps EV/EBIT multiplier x = EBIT of the company Enterprise Value of the company Enterprise Value of the company - = Debt of the company Equity Value of the company
  111. 111. 111 Using P/E ratio is even easier P/E ratio x = Net profit of the company Equity Value of the company
  112. 112. 112 For more details and content check my online course where you can find case studies showing analyses along with detailed calculations in Excel Financial Analysis for Management Consultants $190 $19 Click here to check my course
  113. 113. 113 Financial analyses related to M&A
  114. 114. 114 Financial analyses related to M&A – Introduction
  115. 115. 115 Many companies grow by acquiring other firms. In this cases consultants do a lot of financial analyses related to M&A. We will discuss examples of such analyses in this section.
  116. 116. 116 In this section we will discuss the following things What kind of financial analysis consultants do when it comes to M&A Estimating the impact of expanding via M&A – plywood producer case study Vertical Consolidation via M&As – fitness sector case study Sell non-core assets – general framework Sell non-core assets – case study
  117. 117. 117 Financial analyses that consultants do when it comes to M&A
  118. 118. 118 Let’s have a look at different types of analyses management consultants do Estimation of Potential Synergies Valuation of potential targets Value Creation Plan in Excel Comparison of M&A vs organic growth options Forecasting of the firm after the M&A Valuation of the firm after the M&A Divestment analyses
  119. 119. 119 Expand via M&A – Plywood – Introduction
  120. 120. 120 Let’s have a look at plywood producer that has 2 factories and is considering taken over another one 2 plants Considers taking over a plant in Lithuania Try to estimate the possible benefits
  121. 121. 121 Expand via M&A – Plywood – Solution
  122. 122. 122 Let’s have a look at plywood producer that has 2 factories and is considering taken over another one 2 plants Considers taking over a plant in Lithuania Try to estimate the possible benefits
  123. 123. 123 There are plenty of potential benefits that you can expect from this particular M&A Reducing Head Quarters costs Savings on Capex Less competition on price Cross-selling among customer baes Lower Purchasing price on wood Exchange of best practices
  124. 124. 124 From the analysis of benefits we can see that we can gain up to $17 M from acquiring the Lithuanian factory 2 100 3 500 3 720 2 739 576 4 280 16 915 Reducing Head Quarters costs Savings on Capex Less competition on price Lower Purchasing price on wood Exchange of best practices Cross-selling among customer baes Total benefit from M&A Annual additional benefits from M&A In million of USD
  125. 125. 125 Vertical Consolidation via M&As – Case Introduction
  126. 126. 126 Let’s imagine that you have to help a fitness card operator decide what will be the impact of M&A on his strategy to vertically integrate Fitness card operator wants to have 40% of his revenue delivered by his own fitness clubs He is considering 2 options: only organic growth or M&A with organic growth Check what will be the impact of both options on Revenues, EBITDA and Market Cap
  127. 127. 127 Let’s have a look at value chain in the fitness segment Operator of the fitness card Fitness Clubs HR Managers Developers Landlords Equipment Producers Others Producers of raw materials and components Financing Fitness Clubs Elements of value chain where he is currently present
  128. 128. 128 Investment Analysis
  129. 129. 129 Investment Analysis – Introduction
  130. 130. 130 Firms do a lot of investment. During consulting project quite often you have to check whether they make sense. We will discuss investment analysis in detail using different case studies.
  131. 131. 131 In this section we will discuss the following things Time value of money NPV & IRR Investment – General thoughts Replacement Investment – case study Required by customer investment – case study Investment in bottleneck removal – case study Cost reduction Investment – Retail – case study Cost reduction Investment – Ceramic Tiles – case study
  132. 132. 132 Time value of money
  133. 133. 133 Let’s first start by calculating what is the future value of 100 USD 100 100 Today After 1 year 100 After 2 years Nominal Value Interest rate you can earn every year 5% 5% Future Real Value of 100 that we have today 100 105 110 Nominal Value x (𝟏 + 𝒓) 𝟏 Nominal Value x (𝟏 + 𝒓) 𝟐
  134. 134. 134 Now imagine that the you are getting 100 USD every year. You want to calculate the Present value of the money 100 100 Today After 1 year 100 After 2 years Nominal Value Interest rate you can earn every year 5% 5% Present Value 100 95 91 Nominal Value (𝟏 + 𝒓) 𝟏 Nominal Value (𝟏 + 𝒓) 𝟐
  135. 135. 135 NPV
  136. 136. 136 Let’s start with a short definition  NPV stands for Net Present Value  NPV is the difference between the present value of cash inflows and the present value of cash outflows over a period of time usually related to some investment  It’s used to determine whether something (action, investment etc.) makes sense or not NPV =
  137. 137. 137 Just as a reminder Present Value of money is different than the Nominal Value 100 100 Today After 1 year 100 After 2 years Nominal Value Interest rate you can earn every year 5% 5% Present Value 100 95 91 Nominal Value (𝟏 + 𝒓) 𝟏 Nominal Value (𝟏 + 𝒓) 𝟐
  138. 138. 138 Let’s have a look at the NPV for a small investment - 1 000 300 Year 1 Year 3 300 Year 5 Cash flows generated by the investment in nominal value 300 Year 2 300 Year 4 - 1 000 272 247 Present value of cash flows generated by the investment for interest rate r=5% 286 259 64 NPV 5 year for the end of Year 1; rate r=5% 300 (𝟏 + 𝟓%) 𝟏 Formula for the present value calculations using interest rate r=5% 300 (𝟏 + 𝟓%) 𝟐 300 (𝟏 + 𝟓%) 𝟑 300 (𝟏 + 𝟓%) 𝟒
  139. 139. 139 NPV enables you to make decisions about specific investment NPV 0>  The investment can generate more cash than it requires. Can be considered to be done NPV 0<  The investment will be eating away cash. Rather consider not doing it NPV 0=  Neither creates nor destroys value. Look for other criteria i.e. strategic, tactical factors
  140. 140. 140 Let’s have a look at the NPV for a small investment - 1 000 300 Year 1 Year 3 300 Year 5 Cash flows generated by the investment in nominal value 300 Year 2 300 Year 4 - 1 000 272 247 Present value of cash flows generated by the investment for interest rate r=5% 286 259 64 NPV 5 year for the end of Year 1; rate r=5% 300 (𝟏 + 𝟓%) 𝟏 Formula for the present value calculations using interest rate r=5% 300 (𝟏 + 𝟓%) 𝟐 300 (𝟏 + 𝟓%) 𝟑 300 (𝟏 + 𝟓%) 𝟒
  141. 141. 141 IRR
  142. 142. 142 Let’s start with a short definition  IRR stands for Internal Rate of Return  IRR is a discount rate that makes the net present value (NPV) of all cash flows from a particular project equal to zero  IRR tells us how much you would have to earn on saving account every year to get to the same results as from the investment you are analyzing IRR =
  143. 143. 143 If you want to decide on whether to do certain investment or not compare IRR with the right interest rate IRR Interest rate >  The investment can generate higher returns than the alternatives. Can be considered to be done IRR Interest rate <  The investment will generate lower returns than the alternatives. Rather consider not doing it IRR Interest rate =  The investment is as good as other alternatives. Look for other criteria i.e. strategic, tactical factors
  144. 144. 144 NPV and IRR gives you the same directional information NPV 1 NPV 2>  Investment 1 is better than Investment 2 IRR 1 IRR 2>  Investment 1 is better than Investment 2
  145. 145. 145 NPV – How to calculate it in Excel
  146. 146. 146 Investments – General thoughts
  147. 147. 147 Apart from capacity increase there are 4 main reasons why you do investment Investments Replacement Required by the customer Reducing costs Removing bottlenecks Total cost of Ownership / Usage – comparison Margin that may be lost if you don’t do the investment Margin that can be gained if you do the investment Change in labor costs Change in materials and related costs Change in energy & other utilities costs Margin gained thanks to the removal of the bottlenecks Reduction of costs related to production Reduction of other costs (not related to production) Change in maintenance costs
  148. 148. 148 To decide whether something makes sense or not we compare Capex and Benefits Capex Benefits? Cash outflow / Negative cash flow Cash inflow / Positive cash flow ?
  149. 149. 149 We usually use the NPV or IRR to decide whether the investment makes sense NPV IRR
  150. 150. 150 In the next lectures we will go through different case studies Replacement Investment – Furniture Production Required by customer investment – Food Industry Investment in bottlenecks removal – Plywood
  151. 151. 151 In the next lectures we will go through different case studies Cost reduction Investment – Retail Cost reduction Investment – Ceramic Tiles
  152. 152. 152 Replacement Investment – Introduction
  153. 153. 153 Imagine that you work for a furniture producer that operates in Europe 10 factories Sells most of his production to France & Germany You have to calculate whether the investment in new forklifts makes sense
  154. 154. 154 Replacement Investment – Solution
  155. 155. 155 Just as a reminder you work for a furniture producer that operates in Europe 10 factories Sells most of his production to France & Germany You have to calculate whether the investment in new forklifts makes sense
  156. 156. 156 Let’s have a look how to show the results of investment in replacing forklifts in the Power Point 3 691 7 185 10 875 8 182 2 694 NPV of Difference in Maintenance Costs NPV of Difference in Fuel / Electricity Costs NPV of Total Benefit NPV of Capex NPV of the whole investment NPV of benefits and investments In thousands of USD
  157. 157. 157 Required by customer investment – Introduction
  158. 158. 158 We will now have a look at a company selling branded juice in Romania. They were asked to start using plastic bottles Currently they sell juice in glass, tetra pak and aluminum cans One of the customers (a discounter) wants to get juice in plastic (PET) bottles This will require significant investment
  159. 159. 159 Required by customer investment – Solution
  160. 160. 160 Just as a reminder we have to estimate wheter it makes sense to get into PET bottles as we were asked by the customer Currently they sell juice in glass, tetra pak and aluminum cans One of the customers (a discounter) wants to get juice in plastic (PET) bottles This will require significant investment
  161. 161. 161 Let’s have a look how to show in Power Point the results of PET investment 34 804 12 489 22 315 13 182 9 133 NPV of Additional margin from PET NPV of fixed costs related to PET NPV of Net Benefit NPV of Capex NPV of the whole Investment NPV of benefits and investments – 10 year perspective In thousands of USD
  162. 162. 162 Investment in bottlenecks removal – Introduction
  163. 163. 163 Let’s have a look at a plywood producer that considers removing a bottleneck for one of the factories he has 3 plants They have a bottleneck in 1 of the factory They have a demand for products from this factory
  164. 164. 164 Below you can see the capacity for the factory in question by stages. As you can see sanding is the bottleneck 200 100 90 80 120 100 50 90 120 Preparation of the wood Peeling Drying Repairing Cold Press Hot Press Sanding Foil Triming & Packing Production Capacity by stages In thousands of cubic meters (m3)
  165. 165. 165 Just
  166. 166. 166 Investment in bottleneck removal – Solution
  167. 167. 167 Just as a reminder we are working for a plywood producer that considers removing a bottleneck for one of the factories he has 3 plants They have a bottleneck in 1 of the factory They have a demand for products from this factory
  168. 168. 168 Let’s have a look how to show in Power Point the results from the improvement of sanding line 6 565 1 004 5 561 209 5 352 NPV of Additional margin from higher sales NPV of Additional fixed costs NPV of Net Benefit NPV of Capex NPV of the whole Investment NPV of benefits and investments – 10 year perspective In thousands of USD
  169. 169. 169 Cost reduction investment – Retailer – Introduction
  170. 170. 170 Imagine that you are working for a fashion discounter that operates a retail chain in Easter Europe The retailer has 2 000 stores in Europe The retailer uses traditional lighting He wants to switch to LED lighting
  171. 171. 171 Cost reduction investment – Retailer – Solution
  172. 172. 172 Just as a reminder you are working for a fashion discounter that operates a retail chain in Eastern Europe The retailer has 2 000 stores in Europe The retailer uses traditional lighting He wants to switch to LED lighting
  173. 173. 173 Let’s have a look how to show the results from the change to LED bulbs in the Power Point 15 624 1 250 620 17 494 3 636 13 858 NPV of Difference in electricity costs NPV of Difference in bulb costs NPV of Difference in labor costs NPV of Total Benefit NPV of Capex NPV of the whole investment NPV of benefits and investments – 10 year perspective In thousands of USD
  174. 174. 174 Cost reduction investment – ceramic tile producer – Introduction
  175. 175. 175 Imagine that you are working for a ceramic tiles producer that has 10 factories in Eastern Europe He has 10 factories Every factory on average has 15 production lines Currently loading the tiles is done mannually (2 people per line)
  176. 176. 176 Cost reduction investment – ceramic tile producer – Solution
  177. 177. 177 Just as a reminder you are working for a ceramic tiles producer that has 10 factories in Eastern Europe He has 10 factories Every factory on average has 15 production lines Currently loading the tiles is done mannually (2 people per line)
  178. 178. 178 Let’s have a look how to show in Power Point the results from the introduction of robots to ceramic tiles factory 156 890 37 566 16 657 102 668 27 273 75 396 NPV of Difference in labor costs NPV of Difference in electricity costs NPV of Difference in maitenance costs NPV of Total Benefit NPV of Capex NPV of the whole investment NPV of benefits and investments – 10 year perspective In thousands of USD
  179. 179. 179 For more details and content check my online course where you can find case studies showing analyses along with detailed calculations in Excel Financial Analysis for Management Consultants $190 $19 Click here to check my course
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