We are now on the verge of a new technological revolution of mobility. Transonic trains, supersonic airplanes and electric driverless cars will have the same impact on our modernity as their current old-fashioned versions had on our parents’. Mobility, or the lack of it, once again will decide which country, company or even person will drive the upcoming changes. The aim of this Policy Brief is to raise awareness on the megatrends that are likely to transform the shape of our cities and the way we commute.

1. Converging Technologies
The Future of Mobility
Economic Environment II | Individual Assignment
July 24, 2017 | Antonio Auricchio
10 years ahead
A client in Beijing has just called asking you to
present your latest products in person to their
top management tomorrow.
A driverless e-car picks you up from home and
takes you to the airport. There is no congestion
as traffic flows are automated. During the ride,
you book your trip via your smartphone and
receive one digital ticket for the fastest route
by plane, train and e-car. The next day, you
arrive at the client office in Beijing and receive
the products you are presenting, shipped just in
time from a Chinese warehouse. This is what
travel and logistics could be like in 2025.
It is not far-fetched science fiction; the
technology to make this happen exists today.
Our fast-paced, complex and interdependent
society is driving transformation at an
unprecedented scale.
Anyone who lives in a city like Bangkok,
Johannesburg, New Delhi or Sao Paolo
understands the wasted time and frustration
caused by traffic congestion.
These megacities are the economic
powerhouses of their nations – yet congestion
is stifling their competitiveness.
Introduction
During the last century, we perfected the first-
generation means of transportation. We saw the
effects that a combined and well integrated grid of
transportation had on the way we think of the
world we live in. People realized that high-speed
trains, long-haul flights and increasing car
performances granted access to places whose
accessibility before was limited by both time and
space constraints.
We are now on the verge of a new technological
revolution of mobility. Each one of these
transportation carrier is now being disrupted by
three technological breakthroughs that happened
within their own industries. Transonic train,
supersonic airplanes and electric driverless cars
will have the same impact on our modernity as
their current old-fashioned versions had on our
parents’. Mobility, or the lack of it, once again
will decide which country, company or even
person will drive the upcoming changes.
The aim of this policy brief is to raise awareness
on the megatrends that are likely to transform the
shape of our cities and the way we commute.
Understanding how three different technologies
– Supersonic Flight, Hyperloop and Driverless
Cars – will intertwine together to disrupt our
thinking of the world as it is now, is of the utmost
importance for a policy-maker that wants to drive
such progress instead of being swiped away by it,
or (in a less drastic scenario) miss a once-in-a-
lifetime opportunity to stay ahead of the game.
Taking into consideration Parag Khanna’s
Connectography and Michael Porter’s Cluster
….….
1
Theory, this paper will analyze the current status
quo of mobility and the impact that Hyperloop,
Boom Supersonic and driverless cars will have on
it on two levels of complexity: on a metropolitan
perspective and on the creation of an
interconnected international grid of transportation
that will serve as the link in-between megacities.

2. An Upcoming Revolution
1. An Upcoming Revolution
In order for the Mobility Revolution to occur,
policy makers need to set the ground for it. Beside
the technological advancements on which a lot of
progress has been done, what really needs to be
rethought – or at least upgraded, is the level of our
infrastructure, whose situation is not of the
brightest. Indeed, if compared to GDP,
infrastructure investment rates plummeted in 11 of
the G20 economies since the global financial
crisis, despite massive gaps and fierce debates
about the need to reinforce the foundations of our
mobility systems. Considerable reductions in this
sense have occurred in the European Union, the
United States, Russia, and Mexico. By contrast,
Canada, Turkey, and South Africa increased
investment spending (Figure 1).
Ironically, the very countries that are hosting such
technological transformations mentioned before
are the ones that are not fully recognizing the
importance of refurbishing their infrastructure.
From 2016 through 2030, the world will need to
allocate about 3.8 percent of GDP, or an average
of $3.3 trillion a year, in economic infrastructure
just to support expected rates of growth, let alone
the amount needed to implement these new means
of transportation. Emerging economies account
for roughly 60% of that need. But if the current
trajectory of underinvestment continues, the
……..
world will fall short by $350 billion a year. This
is why governments, now more than ever, cannot
rely 100% on public funding but have to allow
private investors partially to contribute. In fact,
public-private partnerships have globally assumed
a greater role in infrastructure projects and
although it is not clear yet if they are able to
deliver higher efficiency and lowering costs,
private players will continue to be an important
source of financing in the future. Institutional
investors and banks currently own $120 trillion in
assets that could be partially integrated into many
of the infrastructure ventures on the table. The
majority of these funds are originated from
advanced economies, while the largest needs are
in developing economies. It seems so that the ‘old
world’ is inadequate to bear the weight of a new
era, opening up for other countries to jump in.
Indeed, less-developed countries as India,
Thailand, and Indonesia could have a unique
opportunity to “leapfrog” themselves into the
future, without having to cover the huge switching
costs that Europe or the United States would have
to bear in order to make the same transaction.
When comparing the investment rates between
developed and developing countries, it seems in
fact that the latter are on track to fully exploit
such opportunity (Figure 2).
2
Figure 1: In many G20 economies, infrastructure investment
rates have declined since the financial crisis.
Source: (1) McKinsey, 2016
Annual economic infrastructure spending Change in infrastructure investments
Figure 2: Change in infrastructure investment rate, percentage
points of country or region’s GDP.
Source: (1) McKinsey, 2016

3. 3
Inside the Revolution
2. Inside the Revolution
2.1 Hyperloop
Railways, with their greater capacity for carrying
more people, quickly and with greater energy
efficiency, from the very beginning of
industrialization served as the backbone of our
mobility. In the last decade, many alternatives to
the original steel-on-steel approach to the railway
have been created. Hyperloop is the most
promising one. It is a fully-electric, direct high-
speed connection that shrinks the cost of time and
distance. Tesla founder Elon Musk floated the
idea in 2013 to use linear electric motors to propel
levitated vehicles at airplane speeds through near-
vacuum tubes.(13) Hamburg to Berlin in 19
minutes. Dubai to Abu Dhabi in 12 minutes. Once
operative, Hyperloop will allow people to live in
one city and commute to another in less the time it
takes to enter a city by car in the morning. The
Hyperloop is self-alimented, energy efficient, and
possibly as comfortable as a Lexus and safer than
a train - and much safer than a car.
Under the right set of circumstances – a
confluence of cost, distance and location –
Hyperloop could, indeed, see the light very soon.
For example, high-speed rail is particularly
attractive for distances between 150 and 500 km.
At longer distances, planes start to become
competitive. If the announced speed can be
reached, and assuming faster boarding procedures
and less annoying security controls than those of
the airports, the sweet spot for the Hyperloop
would be a range of 300 to 1.000 km.
However, cost remains the main constraint for
Hyperloop to kick-off and it will take few years
until a system will be up and running. Mr. Musk
asserts that a 615 km system — complete with
tubes, passenger capsules and propulsion —
between Los Angeles and San Francisco could be
built for about $6bn, or $9.8 million per mile. As
for location, the Hyperloop might have better
chances of penetrating less-connected areas than
in capturing market share from established
transportation corridors. In Western Europe, for
…
Hyperloop is a revolutionary idea: travelling
seamlessly at 1,220kph (just under the speed of
sound) in small pods that arrive as often as
every 30 seconds is very attractive. The
concept is based around building very straight
tubes with a partial vacuum applied under the
pods. These pods have an electric compressor
fan on their nose which actively transfers high-
pressure air from the front to the rear, creating
an air cushion once a linear electric motor has
launched the pod. All this would be battery and
solar powered.
Traditionally, the airline industry has not been a
competitive industry due to the fact that in the
early days almost all airlines in the world were
state-owned. However, liberalization policies
allowed the rising of new business models and
competition. Specifically, three business models
have created the current highly-competitive
environment: Full service carriers – airlines born
from former state-owned flag carriers through
market deregulation processes. They are global
players with hub-and-spoke networks. Low cost
carriers – companies designed to have a cost
advantage over a full service carrier by relying on
a simplified business model and point-to-point
networks pivoting on secondary airports. Charter
carriers – airlines company that operates flights
outside normal schedules and only competing in
longer haul. In such environment, two major
trends are gaining traction – more specifically
affecting the long-haul flight providers: the race to
bring supersonic flight back to life and the
competition moving towards ultra long-haul. …
instance, the existence of a well-established and
growing high-speed rail system and aviation
industry make Hyperloop’s impact less disruptive.
2.2 Boom Supersonic
How does Hyperloop work?

4. Both are related, given than supersonic flight will
only have impact on the ultra long-haul routes due
to the need of supersonic aircrafts to only fly
across open seas. Since the ending of Concorde’s
airline service in 2003, there have been no more
civil supersonic flights. For the first time in the
history of mankind, the maximum speed in a
transportation system has receded, and in this
case, it has dropped dramatically.
In 2016, Sir Richard Branson announced that his
airline company Virgin Atlantic was working with
Boom start-up on a supersonic aircraft that is
scheduled to have its first commercial flight in
2023 at the latest. The prototype, nicknamed
"Baby Boom" will reach a cruising speed 10%
faster than the Concorde – which flew at more
than twice the speed of sound – and will transport
40 to 55 passengers from London to New York in
3 hours and 15 minutes (3 hours and 45 minutes
less than a regular flight) for $2,500 each way;
from Tokyo to San Francisco in 5 hours and 30
minutes (half the time of a regular flight) and
from Sydney to Los Angeles in 6 hours and 45
minutes (8 hours and 15 minutes less than a
regular flight) for $3,250. Boom Supersonic – the
company that is now cashing in on the patent filed
for the “Concorde 2.0” – claims that it has already
received 76 orders for its new passenger jet from
several airlines. It is predicted that the first airline
to readopt supersonic jets after British Airways
and Air France retired the Concorde in 2003 will
enjoy a significant competitive advantage of
flying 2.6x faster than any other competitor,
which will allow it to steal most profitable
businesses and premium passengers in the long
and ultra long-haul.
4
Inside the Revolution
Beside Boom Supersonic, other airplane
manufacturer companies are entering the
market in order to have the first or the most
efficient civil vehicles able to overtake the
speed of Mach 2.5:
a)Luke Workman, a designer of lithium
batteries for electric vehicles, claims to be
able to create a system to build clean, quiet
and fully-battery powered supersonic
airplanes(1).
b)Airbus is designing a hypersonic jet that it
hopes will take people from London to New
York in just one hour, faster than most of in-
land daily commutes(2).
(1) Torkington Simon, “The next supersonic airliner could be battery
powered”, World Economic Forum (28 September 2016)
(2) DailyMail, “London to New York in one hour: Airbus files patent
for jet more than twice as fast as the Concorde” (18 September 2015)
2.3 Driverless Cars
Boom Supersonic Airplane Prototype
As it has happened in many industries with very
high technological advancements rates, customer
preferences in the global automotive sector are
dramatically shifting, moving away from the
traditional strongholds as chassis or engine
horsepower. The highly-valuable interaction
between large high-tech companies and
innovative start-ups is setting the basis for
disruptive trends to thrive, such as electrification,
autonomous driving, diverse mobility, and
connectivity, that will transform the classic
vertically integrated automotive value chains into
a complex, horizontally structured ecosystem.
If in the past most of the value has been extracted
from the hardware of vehicles, four trends are
now siding with software-driven innovations:
Electrification of car’s drivetrains, driver-
assistance systems will move to fully autonomous
driving, the standard model will continue to
evolve from upfront purchase to rentals and car
…
The second supersonic era

5. In the future, cars will become computers on wheels as tech players move into the automotive
sector to leverage their existing capabilities
Figure 3: In the future, cars will become computers on wheels as tech players move into the automotive sector to leverage their
existing capabilities.
Source: (3) McKinsey, 2016
Inside the Revolution
sharing, the possibilities for ‘infotainment’
innovations and new traffic services will explode
as cars get connected to each other, to the broader
infrastructure and to people.
Thus far, the customer value proposition is
shifting to exploit the car data monetization
opportunity that leverages on an environment in
which customers’ willingness to pay for these
kinds of services is constantly increasing. The
monetization of car data requires a set of enablers
across three broad categories: in-car technology
enablers include sensors, high-performance
computing, in-car software to improve
……………. …….
connectivity data storage, and location/navigation
interfaces. Infrastructural technologies outside of
the vehicle to enable car data monetization
include 4G/5G data towers, big data analytics,
cloud computing, software platforms, high-
definition maps/high-resolution positioning,
smart-road infrastructure, and direct
communication channels. These back-end
processes are essential to facilitate the sharing of
car data and ensure the functioning and security of
the whole ecosystem. Among others, these
enabling players are regulators, infrastructure
operators, content providers, cybersecurity
players, and data center operators.
5

6. Disrupting the Status Quo
The European Initiative that Hyperloop
Transportation Technologies – the company
devoted to implement Hyperloop – has
undertaken goes into the direction of creating a
more unified and stronger cluster that will spread
over the majority of the continental Europe.
Mobility again might be the key to culturally,
politically and economically unify a union that
struggles to stay together. Hyperloop One's vision
for Europe will create economic unification to
provide a much better option for people living
outside of large economic centers and big cities.
It will increase capacity of strategic corridors to
sustainably develop city-to-city connections
within commuting range, enabling a thriving,
greener mega-region. Additionally, Hyperloop
will offer next generation logistics to facilitate
fast, reliable and clean movement of goods. Nine
potential European routes were unveiled for the
Hyperloop One Global Challenge at the event
held in Amsterdam last spring1. The proposed
routes will connect over 75 million people in 44
cities, spanning across 5,000 kilometers. “For
Europe, Hyperloop One technology is
complementary to existing highways, rails, ports
and overall infrastructure,” said Rob Lloyd, Chief
Executive Officer of Hyperloop One. “Hyperloop
One will offer Europe’s transport grid with an
option that is more efficient, greener, on-demand
and faster. We’ve seen a lot of interest here, and
we look forward to creating a partnership to
enhance the continent’s transport infrastructure.”
It has to be said though that Europe, compared to
other unions of states in the world, already has a
well-integrated mobility system. However, when
it comes to less-integrated or advanced regions, as
the UAE to some extent is, the impact of a
technology as Hyperloop would be ten times as
………
3. Disrupting the Status Quo
3.1 Hyperloop One x EU and UAE
1 ‘Hyperloop One's Vision for Europe Summit: ‘Unveiling 9 Routes Spanning
the Continent as Part of its Global Challenge’, Amsterdam, 6 June 2017
disrupting. As Rob Lloyd explains, “While
technology is revolutionizing many facets of our
lives, we have not seen a radical change in
transportation since the Wright brothers
introduced air travel over 100 years ago. Tying
together the Middle East region would produce
greater virtual density, without congestion and
pollution, spurring innovation, productivity, job
growth and more powerful sharing of knowledge,
labor and investments. Building a Hyperloop
would vastly impact the economy and make any
major city in the Gulf Cooperation Council
accessible within one hour.” Hyperloop One is on
track to perform a public trial later this year, with
the aim of creating ‘a faster, more efficient and
cleaner system of mobility’.
As Tesla launched the Model 3, the latest and
more accessible version of the Model S, fully
electric and equipped with autopilot for $35,000,
it shook the automotive industry from inside. In
order for the Model 3 to be ready for the market,
the car had to drive from Los Angeles to New
York without any human interaction – this was the
ambitious target of Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk.
It’s now time to take autonomous driving and
battery-powered vehicles seriously, as a perfect
substitute – if not as a more advanced and
efficient one – of common oil-propelled cars.
Even if motor vehicles have shaped modern
society and urban areas by large, as global income
rises, cars and trucks are choking metropolitan
areas around the world with deadly pollution and
productivity-sapping jams. It won’t take long
before fleets of electric and shared autonomous
vehicles will outnumber their outdated
competitors. Even if it may seem a very futuristic
scenario, the technologies that will enable such
transition already exist. The first is the self-
driving vehicle, guided to the quickest route by
real-time traffic updates according to real-time
passenger requests. The second is blockchain-
…..…
3.2 Megacities and COMET
6

7. Disrupting the Status Quo | How Policy Makers Should React
enabled, secure peer-to-peer transactions that
eliminate or minimize the need for central
authorities to manage the interactions between
users – Uber included. The security of blockchain
will allow owners to directly rent out their
vehicles under terms and conditions they set
themselves in smart contracts. Using blockchain,
trip charges will be automatically deducted from
the passenger’s blockchain-enabled digital wallets
or charged to their credit card, with payment
instantly flowing to the vehicle owner. Access,
identity and P2P transactions will enable the easy,
secure sharing of not only vehicles but
infrastructures such as toll roads, recharging
stations and parking lots. In the short run,
blockchain could allow any vehicle owner to enter
the transportation market without barriers such as
paying a fee to centralized ride sharing services or
paying a bank to process payments. Ultimately, if
this model will succeed, mobility on decentralized
.
platforms may also become one of the most
visible and dramatic examples of a zero marginal
cost economy in which owners of everything from
homes to cars rent them out when not in use,
driving the marginal cost of each overnights stay
or trip close to zero. In such a post-capitalist
economy, traditional drivers such as supply and
demand and the need for profits are supplemented
by more collaborative, communal models that
prioritize sharing social good alongside
shareholder profits.
How autonomous vehicles and blockchain will
change ownership models
4. How Policy Makers Should
React
4.1 Reshaping Megacities
After having described in which direction policy
makers should be looking at in order to be
prepared for the changes that are going to occur,
in this chapter I will analyze which tools and
approaches might be considered to react
positively to such trends and stay ahead of the
evolving environment.
Today, only few cities such as Amsterdam,
Singapore, and Stockholm, are singled out as
having effective mobility. With varying degrees of
emphasis, they have efficient public transport,
encouraging cycling and walking, and have
managed to limit congestion and pollution. But on
a larger scale the situation looks a bit scaring. The
majority of developing and developed cities
around the world are plagued by traffic congestion
that already erodes an estimated $200 billion in
GDP in the European Union and the US and
reduce commerce worldwide by more than $1.4
trillion.(4) Technological innovations in the form
of electrification, connectivity, and autonomy
need to be used as tools to prevent urban areas
from worsening their already un-healthy
ecosystems. Increasing urbanization and the
growth of “Megacities” with more than ten
million people provide the conditions for change,
as they will lead the way toward an advanced-
……. …..
Figure 4: How autonomous vehicles and blockchain will
change ownership models
Source: (9) World Economic Forum, 2016
7

8. How Policy Makers Should React
mobility model. To take full advantage of these
benefits and avoid major pitfalls, the public and
private sectors would need to work together, while
city mayors would need to be willing to
reconsider how they conduct their own business.
For example, shared and autonomous vehicles
could cannibalize public-transport systems, and
cities may consider whether it make sense to
partially shift ownership to private shared-
mobility providers. Governments might need also
to rethink fuel and power taxation and use the
opportunity of connectivity to realign
infrastructure pricing policies. At a local and
global level, this merge between public and
private sector will prepare the ground for the
future to happen. Governments may want to
anticipate these new mobility models by crafting
regulations consistent with consumer-friendly
technological developments that also promote
larger public goals, such as clean air and reduced
congestions. They need to think ahead, with
regard to both replacing the possible short-term
economic losses and enhancing their connection
with the private sector. Strong partnership that
make it easy to blend public transit and private
mobility will likely produce the best solution. And
a huge help in this direction could come from the
combined effect of effective projects pooling
between foreign and local investors – in order to
reduce the sometimes limiting transaction costs
caused by tight regulations – and loosening up
those legal barrier that, in order to avoid
exploitation of local factor of productions, prevent
also these kinds of shifts to happen at their
supposed pace.
4.3 Condition-based megacity traffic
management (COMET)
COMET is a system ideated by the World
Economic Forum that relies on real-time data
collection and analytics to steer or redirect traffic,
providing smart parking capabilities for inner
cities and managing public transportation
capacity. It also includes a dynamic tolling system
as well as access restriction policies to handle
……
congestion or manage emergencies. Citizens can
thus circulate, and transport goods efficiently and
securely, through the megacities of the future. The
inclusion and alignment of several distinct
stakeholders are prerequisites for COMET’s
successful implementation. End users – i.e.
vehicle drivers, will be the ultimate beneficiaries
of the service. Users can play a crucial role in
pressuring authorities to set up such system, at the
same time serving the function to ensure that the
system will stay in place and will run efficiently.
Public authorities, charged with defining the
regulatory frameworks for creating and operating
traffic management systems, need to cooperate
between one another on multiple levels – local,
regional, national, etc. The critical decision for
them is assigning the operational responsibility
for the system by either outsourcing the work to a
private operator, or by managing it within the
public sector through a specific authority. Finally,
involvement from a range of technology,
infrastructure and service providers is required to
set up a system like COMET and to ensure its
overall safety.
1) Real-time monitoring: using infrastructure
and vehicle sensors to collect data on
traffic and other issues.
2) Real-time analytics: combining and
analyzing data from multiple sources – e.g.
predict traffic volumes.
3) Intelligent steering: using signaling and
speed limits to manage traffic in real time.
4) Dynamic tolling: Adjusting tolling rates
dynamically – e.g. based on traffic
volumes.
5) Access restrictions: blocking or restricting
access to areas – e.g. because of emission
limits being exceeded.
6) Smart parking: Using real-time parking
space management – e.g. signaling free
parking or adjusting pricing.
8
COMET’s 6 features

9. Conclusion
The roadmap for putting these solutions into
action will have to follow a multi-stakeholder
governance model and other prerequisites needed
to operate these changes at scale. Alignment
among stakeholders is of the utmost importance.
All the relevant parties must have a good
understanding of what are their incentives.
Multilevel governance models would allow each
megacity, cluster of region of interest to
”glocalize” from a theoretical model the changes
needed in order for the new mobility plan to be
effective. Viable business and financing models
would make sure that an operating model
manages the sharing of the benefits among all
parties in a way that encourages them to
collaborate and engage toward a common goal.
Lastly, a step-by-step approach has to be
adopted in order for each solution to be
implemented incrementally, with each stage
reinforcing the model and delivering sufficient
economic benefits to motivate further investment.
5.1 Granting Access
5. Conclusion
As mentioned at the beginning of this paper,
mobility is one of the core element of our
modernity. It is the means that grants access to
land, people, economic flows, workforce and
resources and that creates the links and synergies
essential for clusters – i.e. innovation magnets, to
exist. The three innovations described here –
supersonic flights, self-sustained and transonic
trains and driverless cars – are just part of a much
bigger picture that is going to occur regardless of
which state will try to obstruct its implementation
or which one will desire to be the epicenter of it.
It’s a collectively exhausting phenomenon that
will eventually affect horizontally everyone’s life.
5.2 Cosmopolitan realpolitik and
Hyperconnectivity
tomorrow’s societies, hyperconnectivity among
states will be the key to drive those
transformations to unprecedented scale.
Understanding the dynamic of hyperconnectivity
and its impact on governance is a global priority.
Gathering new insights and understandings is now
vital for policy makers as they will manage the
transition from a world driven by top-down,
command and control systems to a decentralized
world characterized by constant change.
5.3 A global approach
The Mobility Revolution will differ from other
technological innovations because of three
different characteristics that makes it impossible
for a single entity to have control over it. It will be
delocalized, as it will happen in many different
places at the same time and its span would no
longer be national, but will directly reach a degree
of internationality and complexity to which our
policy makers are not yet used to. It will be
inalienable, meaning that over enough time it will
be able to penetrate the deepest levels of our
societies, affecting virtually everyone’s daily life.
Finally, from our standpoint right now, its effects
are incalculable as no one can really estimate in
which degree the deployment of such integrated
technologies will actually improve our way of
living in a considerable way. Thus, once policy
makers realize the characteristics of such
incumbent wave, the only way for them to take
advantage of it for the good of everyone is if they
act together in a more unified and shared reality.
To keep up with the increasing velocity,
complexity, transparency and interdependency of
..
9

10. 10
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