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Autonomous cars, car sharing
and electric vehicles – A
connected ecosystem that could
propel adoption
September 2015
www.pwc.com
Dr. Anand S. Rao
Partner, Innovation in Analytics, PwC
PwC
Agenda
2
Minor regulatory
changes can drive
significant adoption
Fundamental
disruption in
Mobility Ecosystem
Sharing economy
will drive AV
adoption
AVs will make car
sharing more
attractive
Adoption of Electric
Vehicles will
increase
PwC
Executive Summary
3
Minor regulatory
changes can drive
significant adoption
Fundamental
disruption in
Mobility Ecosystem
Sharing economy
will drive AV
adoption
AVs will make car
sharing more
attractive
Adoption of Electric
Vehicles will
increase
Mobility sharing within a household and general public will drive autonomous adoption
• Increased sharing within households (owing to lack of trip overlap) and car sharing as an alternative transportation options
will help propel autonomous vehicles in order to realize the desired efficiencies
• As car sharing takes off, autonomous vehicles will become attractive to service providers that must maximize vehicle utilization
to increase profits
Autonomous technology will enable car sharing providers to cover more demand with fewer vehicles over
• Autonomous vehicles will be able to service more daily consumer trips within a sharing economy (i.e. every autonomous vehicle
will displace 9 traditional vehicles in a sharing fleet), and this will allow service providers to increase service convenience and
attractiveness at equivalent costs
Increased vehicle usage will make electric vehicles more cost effective
• Electric vehicle adoption could benefit from the synergy between decline in car ownership and increased adoption of car
sharing through reduced range anxiety and increased affordability
• Autonomous technology will introduce efficiencies that will enhance the attractiveness and value proposition of electric vehicles,
including lower cost electric component configuration, reduced range anxiety, and faster payback periods
Small regulatory steps changes can lead to a major impact on trips served
• Only 4 states have passed legislation to addresses autonomous vehicles while 16 are considering, and 9 have failed to pass
measures1
• Even a minor policy change to allow autonomous vehicles to service short, low speed trips can result in a significant adoption
Autonomous vehicles will shift driving behaviors, enabling car sharing and electric vehicle adoption
• Access to autonomous vehicles would stimulate demand from previously mobility-impaired individuals and could lead to urban
sprawl and associated increases in annual miles traveled, increasing the rate at which autonomous vehicles are scrapped
• Widespread autonomous vehicle adoption will have lasting implications on the automotive value chain and dependent
industries, requiring business models to adapt
PwC
Driven by digitalization, preference for access-on-demand and the rising cost of
ownership, the global market for car sharing is expected to grow at 30% per
annum
Minor regulatory
changes can drive
significant adoption
Fundamental
disruption in
Mobility Ecosystem
Sharing economy
will drive AV
adoption
AVs will make car
sharing more
attractive
Adoption of Electric
Vehicles will
increase
Like auto sharing because of
better pricing
Participated
in Car Sharing
Providers aged
18 to 44 years
Less expensive to
share than own
Sharing makes life
more affordable
Like auto sharing because of
more convenient access
Participated as Car
Sharing providers
Providers have
household income
of $25K to $75K
Owning feels like
a burden
Sharing makes life more
convenient and efficient
44% of US
adults are familiar
with the “sharing
economy” and
19% have
participated in it
86% 83%
81% 43%
62% 40%
8% 1%
56% 28%
Efficiency
Ownership
Provider
Demographic
Car Sharing
Participation
Car Sharing
Preference
Sources: PwC Analysis, Roland Berger (2014)
The five key sharing sectors, including Car Sharing, P2P Finance, Online Staffing, P2P Accommodation, and
Music/Video Streaming have the potential to increase global revenues from $15billion now to $335 billion by 2025
4
PwC
Urbanization, rising cost of car ownership, and lack of interest from millennials
are driving an emerging mobility sharing market
5
What is mobility sharing?
• Variations
─ Ride sharing (car owners drive others),
─ Peer to peer lending (car owners loan to
others),
─ Car pooling (sharing with a pool of
consumers),
─ Short term rentals (renting a street parked
vehicle)
• Contracts directly with other consumers,
intermediaries/brokers, or third parties that offer
services
How will autonomous vehicles drive
adoption?
• Better demand-supply matching
• Lower costs (no need for a ‘driver’)
• More convenience (e.g., get-off where you want to)
Car Sharing
Attractiveness
Technology
Ownership CostsUrbanization
Convenience
Penetration of mobile
devices and mobile
coverage, and improved
sensor adoption and
security have created a
foundation for reliable
and convenient sharing
Congestion and higher
car ownership costs
are exposing potential
owners to viable
alternatives to car
ownership
City congestion, traffic,
limited parking, and
minimal vehicle use make
car ownership less
convenient than public
transit and other
alternatives
Rising fuel prices,
insurance, and parking
fees in congested urban
centers are making car
ownership impractical
for most urban dwellers
Minor regulatory
changes can drive
significant adoption
Fundamental
disruption in
Mobility Ecosystem
Sharing economy
will drive AV
adoption
AVs will make car
sharing more
attractive
Adoption of Electric
Vehicles will
increase
PwC
The ability to share vehicles in a pool or in a household while maintaining
transportation convenience levels will make autonomous vehicles an attractive
option for households and car sharing services
6
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
NumberofCarsinMillions
Car Parc Projections for Autonomous Vehicles
Years after Introduction of Fully Autonomous Cars
Car Parc without
Autonomous Adoption
Car Parc with
Autonomous Adoption
What form will autonomous vehicles Take?
• Traditional cars
• Family (Luxury) Autonomous Vehicles
• Shared Autonomous Vehicles
• Pooled Shared Autonomous Vehicles
How will autonomous vehicles impact the
car parc?
• On average, vehicles are only used 56 minutes
(4% utilization) a day, and 83.7% of family
trips do not overlap making family
autonomous vehicles very attractive
• As fully autonomous vehicles reach 100%
penetration, the number of cars owned per
household will be reduced by nearly 50%
and the total car parc will reduce by the
same amount
Minor regulatory
changes can drive
significant adoption
Fundamental
disruption in
Mobility Ecosystem
Sharing economy
will drive AV
adoption
AVs will make car
sharing more
attractive
Adoption of Electric
Vehicles will
increase
http://www.driverlesstransportation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/UMTRI-2015-3.pdf
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/PDFs/Brian_Johnson_DisruptiveMobility.072015.pdf
Disruptive Mobility, Barclays Report, May 2015
PwC
Mobility sharing will increase vehicle utilization, and while the total number of
vehicles in the parc will decline, sales of autonomous vehicles can recover to
levels of their traditional counterparts due to higher scrap rates
7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CarsinMillions
Annual Vehicles Sales Under Autonomous
Vehicle Adoption
Years after Introduction of Fully Autonomous Cars
Car Without Autonomous
Adoption Sales with Autonomous
and 6 year replacement
Sales with Autonomous
and 12 year replacement
With the introduction of
autonomous vehicles, car sales
will drop by more than 50% upon
full penetration
Increased usage per vehicle (2x the
number of miles per year) will
increase the scrap rate. At a 6 year
scrap rate, vehicle sales can recover
after full penetration
If vehicle replacement rates
remain consistent with current
rates (12 years), reduced sales
levels will remain
Minor regulatory
changes can drive
significant adoption
Fundamental
disruption in
Mobility Ecosystem
Sharing economy
will drive AV
adoption
AVs will make car
sharing more
attractive
Adoption of Electric
Vehicles will
increase
PwC
Autonomous vehicles increase the efficiency of the car share car parc, leading to
lower service costs through higher utilization and increased attractiveness
through higher availability
8
Car Share
Attractiveness
Car Share
Replacement
Rate
Car Share
Cost/
Convenience
Car Share
Parc
Car Share
Habit
Personal Car
Attractiveness
Car Share
Usage
Share of
Tips
Car Share Car
Utilization
Supply
Demand
Imbalance
Car Share
Availability
Autonomous Car
Attractiveness
Autonomous
Car TCO
Resale
Values
Autonomous
Tech Costs
Autonomous
Car Ratio
Autonomous
Perception
As more efficient cars are
added to the system, car
sharing services will
become more convenient
and attractive
Autonomous vehicles will add
scale to car sharing by servicing
more trips with fewer cars
Autonomous increases total
utilization per car, adding minimal
amount of mileage waste while
increasing profitability
Autonomous sharing
will cover a larger area
without a tradeoff of
convenience or
utilization, reducing the
need for a personal car
Autonomous technology will
increase the viability of car
sharing for most transportation
needs, reducing the
attractiveness of personal car
ownership
Minor regulatory
changes can drive
significant adoption
Fundamental
disruption in
Mobility Ecosystem
Sharing economy
will drive AV
adoption
AVs will make car
sharing more
attractive
Adoption of Electric
Vehicles will
increase
1
2
3
4
5
PwC
Autonomous vehicles are better able to match demand for vehicle usage, offer
convenience that is on par with personal car ownership and making car sharing
an attractive transportation alternative
9
Car Sharing Share of Vehicle Trips
PercentageofTotalVehicleTrips
Without autonomous vehicles, car
sharing sees a total penetration
of 1% of all vehicle trips (3 to 4
trips per month) at the end of a 30
year period
When autonomous cars are
introduced, we see adoption
reach up to 25%-30% due to the
increasing convenience and service
attractiveness
Note: The model introduces basic assumptions regarding average vehicle cost, cost curve for autonomous technology, tradeoffs between price and convenience for transportation choice, autonomous car
efficiencies, and consumer vehicle usage behaviors. The model is calibrated to an average annual vehicle trips and miles traveled and projected monthly trips taken using traditional car sharing services of 3 to 4 trips
per month (a metric that is commonly seen in car sharing markets and through other market penetration studies)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
Traditional Car Share
Autonomous Car Share Autonomous Car Share Perception Constraint
Reducing the consumer acceptance
rate by 50% significantly slows
autonomous adoption, postponing
car sharing adoption growth by 10
years
Minor regulatory
changes can drive
significant adoption
Fundamental
disruption in
Mobility Ecosystem
Sharing economy
will drive AV
adoption
AVs will make car
sharing more
attractive
Adoption of Electric
Vehicles will
increase
PwC
Autonomous automobile adoption will help fuel the rise of car sharing adoption,
generating traffic efficiencies and travel behaviors that will make alternative
fuel vehicles more economically attractive
10
Autonomous
Car Adoption
Car Sharing
Emergence
Electric Vehicle
Adoption
Demand for autonomous
vehicles to expand sharing
business
Improved coverage and
efficiency, increasing
attractiveness
Autonomous Car and Car Sharing Synergies
Minor regulatory
changes can drive
significant adoption
Fundamental
disruption in
Mobility Ecosystem
Sharing economy
will drive AV
adoption
AVs will make car
sharing more
attractive
Adoption of Electric
Vehicles will
increase
PwC
Electric Vehicle Adoption – Autonomous technology will make electric vehicles
more affordable and useable, increasing attractiveness for personal car and car
sharing parc replacement
11
Car Share
Attractiveness
Car Share
UsageCar
Replacement
Rate
Car Share
Convenience
Car Share
Park
Car Share
Habit
Range
Anxiety
Increased
Range
Autonomous
Tech
Larger
Batteries
Total Cost of
Ownership
Resale
Price
Personal
Electric Car
Park
Electric
Attractiveness
Fully autonomous car
sharing will help
eliminate range anxiety as
consumers will always
have a fully charged car
available Transportation needs can
be satisfied through a
combination of personal
electric cars for local trips
and fully autonomous car
sharing for longer trips
Electric car sharing
vehicles are currently not
cost effective, and range
anxiety limits sharing to
specific types of trips
Lower operating
costs and
increased
utilization will
introduce a shift to
electric vehicles for
car sharing
Autonomous technology will
increase vehicle usage and introduce
faster payback periods through
increased usage
Minor regulatory
changes can drive
significant adoption
Fundamental
disruption in
Mobility Ecosystem
Sharing economy
will drive AV
adoption
AVs will make car
sharing more
attractive
Adoption of Electric
Vehicles will
increase
5
1
2
3
4
PwC
Larger initial investments lead to higher total cost of ownership; however,
autonomous technology can help speed up the payback period for electric
vehicles and bring the cost per mile in line with traditional engines
12
Usage
Lifetime Operating Costs
Purchase Price
Vehicle Cost
Tax Credits
Depreciation
Fuel CostInsurance Costs
Maintenance
Miles Traveled
Charging Equipment
Price Per Mile
Autonomous technology will allow cars to have
smaller batteries to achieve the same range
and may eliminate the need for in home
charging, relying on shared infrastructure through
autonomous charging trips instead
The payback period for higher electric vehicle costs
will be reduced through the increased usage, and
lower fuel and maintenance costs
Faster depreciation due to higher use can be
recouped through lower fuel costs and car
sharing revenue
Autonomous tech will increase the mileage per
vehicle by minimizing range anxiety and
increasing the number of trips taken with the
car through sharing
As the price per mile decreases for electric vehicles,
the attractiveness will increase
Minor regulatory
changes can drive
significant adoption
Fundamental
disruption in
Mobility Ecosystem
Sharing economy
will drive AV
adoption
AVs will make car
sharing more
attractive
Adoption of Electric
Vehicles will
increase
PwC
Despite the availability of technology, declining costs, and projected efficiencies,
social and legal change will present adoption barriers
13
Investment Costs
Regulation
Public Trust and
Perception
Reduced
Transportation
Costs
Convenience and
Safety
Transportation and
service Efficiencies
1http://cyberlaw.stanford.edu/wiki/index.php/Automated_Driving:_Legislative_and_Regulatory_Action
2http://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/insurance/2015/06/09/survey-consumer-fears-self-driving-cars/
3http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/PDFs/Nov2013MORGAN-STANLEY-BLUE-PAPER-AUTONOMOUS-CARS%EF%BC%9A-SELF-DRIVING-THE-NEW-AUTO-INDUSTRY-
PARADIGM.pdf
Only 4 states have passed
legislation to address
autonomous vehicles; 16 are
considering, and 9 have
failed to pass measures1
Autonomous technology is
projected to add $10,0002 to
the cost of the car; this is
expected to decline to
$3,000 by 2035
46% of consumers feel that
autonomous cars will not be
safe and 28% believe that
they will never own one3
Autonomous cars will
remove variability and
improve driving
conditions
Commute times will
drop due to decreasing
congestion; public transit
and car sharing will cover
larger areas, increasing
availability and reducing
wait times
Autonomous adoption can
reduce transportation
costs of car ownership
through alternative
transportation solutions
Minor regulatory
changes can drive
significant adoption
Fundamental
disruption in
Mobility Ecosystem
Sharing economy
will drive AV
adoption
AVs will make car
sharing more
attractive
Adoption of Electric
Vehicles will
increase
PwC
Small regulatory steps towards introduction of autonomous vehicles to roads
can satisfy significant transportation demand
14
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Trips completed above and below 35 MPH in the US
Trips(millions)
1 Trips under 35 MPH were assumed to be trips where the distance was less than 15 miles (NHTS).
2 Excluded trips: (a) Trips that are not part of a Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) in the survey data (less than 1% of miles and trips), (b) Trips to a person’s home (as these trips could not be tied to a specific trip
purpose and transportation mode, they overshadow the analysis because they represent almost 40% of trips); Source: NHTS (2009).
Trips over 35MPHTrips below 35MPH
Google announced that Mountain
View, CA will allow it to operate
fully autonomous vehicles in 35
MPH speed zones
Applying the same to all North
American cities would account for
~47% (1.75 Billion) of trips and
~28% (6.4 Billion) of miles
traveled2
~50% of short trips taken around a
person’s home (e.g. errands and
school/daycare) are all completed
with average speeds under 35
MPH1
The types of trips are ideal for
shared transportation services
and can significantly reduce
congestion if AVs are utilized
Minor regulatory
changes can drive
significant adoption
Fundamental
disruption in
Mobility Ecosystem
Sharing economy
will drive AV
adoption
AVs will make car
sharing more
attractive
Adoption of Electric
Vehicles will
increase
PwC
Autonomous vehicles will lead to increased vehicle utilization, shifting driving
behaviors, cost efficiencies, and reduced road congestion that will enable car
sharing and electric vehicle adoption
15
Reduced car
ownership
Household car
ownership will fall
by 43%, from 2.1
to 1.2 vehicles
per household
More miles driven
Each household car will travel 76%
more miles due to fall in car
ownership, and shared vehicles can
travel 174 miles a day to fill a
greater volume of trips
Greater utilization
Shared vehicles will average 26
trips a day over 8 hours,
versus 3 trips a day over 1
hour for conventional vehicles,
and each family vehicle could
see a 75% increase in annual
trips
Shorter wait times
A fleet of shared vehicles
could serve most trips within
the city, with average wait
time of 1 minute and no
more than 4 minutes
Smaller car parc
Each shared vehicle can
replace 9.3
conventional vehicles1),
and one family vehicle
can replace 2
conventional vehicles
Falling cost per mile
Shared vehicles can cut
cost of the average trip
from $7.80 to $1 due to
automation of labor
Lower cost of ownership for electric cars
Fewer household cars, increased utilization and
car sharing adoption and a low 3 cents/mile
cost of charging will pave the way for electric
vehicles; an 8% increase in empty vehicle
trips will enable cars to charge their batteries
when not in use, eliminating range anxiety
1) Assuming all household trips within the city are replaced by shared vehicles; Sources: UMITRI (2015), NHTS (2009), Fagnant and Kockelman (2015), Burns et al. (2013)
Minor regulatory
changes can drive
significant adoption
Fundamental
disruption in
Mobility Ecosystem
Sharing economy
will drive AV
adoption
AVs will make car
sharing more
attractive
Adoption of Electric
Vehicles will
increase
PwC
Widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles will have implications across the
automotive value chain, on city planning and regulation
16
Minor regulatory
changes can drive
significant adoption
Fundamental
disruption in
Mobility Ecosystem
Sharing economy
will drive AV
adoption
AVs will make car
sharing more
attractive
Adoption of Electric
Vehicles will
increase
• 40% fewer annual sales with shorter replacement cycles owing to increased utilization
• Increase in vehicle configurations to cater to different mobility requirements (eg.
Family vehicles, single passenger vehicles etc.)
• Shift towards supplemental revenue-generating activities, such as in-house Mobility
Sharing services, Data-driven vehicle prognostics etc.
• Shift from personal ownership to business ownership owing to decrease in family car
ownership and increased adoption of shared mobility services
• Plunging cost of insurance owing to a 90% decrease in crashes
• Emergence of new forms of usage-based insurance such as Pay-As-You-Drive (PAYD) and
Pay-How-You-Drive (PHYD) insurance, with coverage based on distance, mileage, and
trip purpose (own versus shared ride)
• Replacement of up to 6 million professional driving jobs with autonomous driving
technology
• Fully autonomous fleet and lower costs for rental car companies and Car for Hire
providers such as Uber
• Increased road capacity owing to less congestion and shorter travel times
• Replacement of traditional forms of public transit by autonomous vans over time
• Increase in multi-modal trips
• Increase in suburban sprawl due to decreased range anxiety
• Legalizing use of autonomous driving technology in46 states and updating current laws
• Tracking the evolution of autonomous technology and legislating accordingly while
maintaining technology neutrality
Auto Manufacturers
Insurance
Mobility Service
Providers
City Planning
Regulators
Auto Sales and
Distribution
Industry Implication
For additional information contact
Dr. Anand S Rao
Email: anand.s.rao@pwc.com
Twitter: AnandSRao
Dr. Anand S Rao
anand.s.rao@pwc.com
Dr. Mark Paich
mark.paich@pwc.com
Joseph D Voyles
joseph.voyles@pwc.com
Aparajita Bijapurkar
aparajita.bijapurkar@pwc.com
Authors

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Autonomous cars, car sharing and electric vehicles

  • 1. Autonomous cars, car sharing and electric vehicles – A connected ecosystem that could propel adoption September 2015 www.pwc.com Dr. Anand S. Rao Partner, Innovation in Analytics, PwC
  • 2. PwC Agenda 2 Minor regulatory changes can drive significant adoption Fundamental disruption in Mobility Ecosystem Sharing economy will drive AV adoption AVs will make car sharing more attractive Adoption of Electric Vehicles will increase
  • 3. PwC Executive Summary 3 Minor regulatory changes can drive significant adoption Fundamental disruption in Mobility Ecosystem Sharing economy will drive AV adoption AVs will make car sharing more attractive Adoption of Electric Vehicles will increase Mobility sharing within a household and general public will drive autonomous adoption • Increased sharing within households (owing to lack of trip overlap) and car sharing as an alternative transportation options will help propel autonomous vehicles in order to realize the desired efficiencies • As car sharing takes off, autonomous vehicles will become attractive to service providers that must maximize vehicle utilization to increase profits Autonomous technology will enable car sharing providers to cover more demand with fewer vehicles over • Autonomous vehicles will be able to service more daily consumer trips within a sharing economy (i.e. every autonomous vehicle will displace 9 traditional vehicles in a sharing fleet), and this will allow service providers to increase service convenience and attractiveness at equivalent costs Increased vehicle usage will make electric vehicles more cost effective • Electric vehicle adoption could benefit from the synergy between decline in car ownership and increased adoption of car sharing through reduced range anxiety and increased affordability • Autonomous technology will introduce efficiencies that will enhance the attractiveness and value proposition of electric vehicles, including lower cost electric component configuration, reduced range anxiety, and faster payback periods Small regulatory steps changes can lead to a major impact on trips served • Only 4 states have passed legislation to addresses autonomous vehicles while 16 are considering, and 9 have failed to pass measures1 • Even a minor policy change to allow autonomous vehicles to service short, low speed trips can result in a significant adoption Autonomous vehicles will shift driving behaviors, enabling car sharing and electric vehicle adoption • Access to autonomous vehicles would stimulate demand from previously mobility-impaired individuals and could lead to urban sprawl and associated increases in annual miles traveled, increasing the rate at which autonomous vehicles are scrapped • Widespread autonomous vehicle adoption will have lasting implications on the automotive value chain and dependent industries, requiring business models to adapt
  • 4. PwC Driven by digitalization, preference for access-on-demand and the rising cost of ownership, the global market for car sharing is expected to grow at 30% per annum Minor regulatory changes can drive significant adoption Fundamental disruption in Mobility Ecosystem Sharing economy will drive AV adoption AVs will make car sharing more attractive Adoption of Electric Vehicles will increase Like auto sharing because of better pricing Participated in Car Sharing Providers aged 18 to 44 years Less expensive to share than own Sharing makes life more affordable Like auto sharing because of more convenient access Participated as Car Sharing providers Providers have household income of $25K to $75K Owning feels like a burden Sharing makes life more convenient and efficient 44% of US adults are familiar with the “sharing economy” and 19% have participated in it 86% 83% 81% 43% 62% 40% 8% 1% 56% 28% Efficiency Ownership Provider Demographic Car Sharing Participation Car Sharing Preference Sources: PwC Analysis, Roland Berger (2014) The five key sharing sectors, including Car Sharing, P2P Finance, Online Staffing, P2P Accommodation, and Music/Video Streaming have the potential to increase global revenues from $15billion now to $335 billion by 2025 4
  • 5. PwC Urbanization, rising cost of car ownership, and lack of interest from millennials are driving an emerging mobility sharing market 5 What is mobility sharing? • Variations ─ Ride sharing (car owners drive others), ─ Peer to peer lending (car owners loan to others), ─ Car pooling (sharing with a pool of consumers), ─ Short term rentals (renting a street parked vehicle) • Contracts directly with other consumers, intermediaries/brokers, or third parties that offer services How will autonomous vehicles drive adoption? • Better demand-supply matching • Lower costs (no need for a ‘driver’) • More convenience (e.g., get-off where you want to) Car Sharing Attractiveness Technology Ownership CostsUrbanization Convenience Penetration of mobile devices and mobile coverage, and improved sensor adoption and security have created a foundation for reliable and convenient sharing Congestion and higher car ownership costs are exposing potential owners to viable alternatives to car ownership City congestion, traffic, limited parking, and minimal vehicle use make car ownership less convenient than public transit and other alternatives Rising fuel prices, insurance, and parking fees in congested urban centers are making car ownership impractical for most urban dwellers Minor regulatory changes can drive significant adoption Fundamental disruption in Mobility Ecosystem Sharing economy will drive AV adoption AVs will make car sharing more attractive Adoption of Electric Vehicles will increase
  • 6. PwC The ability to share vehicles in a pool or in a household while maintaining transportation convenience levels will make autonomous vehicles an attractive option for households and car sharing services 6 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 NumberofCarsinMillions Car Parc Projections for Autonomous Vehicles Years after Introduction of Fully Autonomous Cars Car Parc without Autonomous Adoption Car Parc with Autonomous Adoption What form will autonomous vehicles Take? • Traditional cars • Family (Luxury) Autonomous Vehicles • Shared Autonomous Vehicles • Pooled Shared Autonomous Vehicles How will autonomous vehicles impact the car parc? • On average, vehicles are only used 56 minutes (4% utilization) a day, and 83.7% of family trips do not overlap making family autonomous vehicles very attractive • As fully autonomous vehicles reach 100% penetration, the number of cars owned per household will be reduced by nearly 50% and the total car parc will reduce by the same amount Minor regulatory changes can drive significant adoption Fundamental disruption in Mobility Ecosystem Sharing economy will drive AV adoption AVs will make car sharing more attractive Adoption of Electric Vehicles will increase http://www.driverlesstransportation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/UMTRI-2015-3.pdf http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/PDFs/Brian_Johnson_DisruptiveMobility.072015.pdf Disruptive Mobility, Barclays Report, May 2015
  • 7. PwC Mobility sharing will increase vehicle utilization, and while the total number of vehicles in the parc will decline, sales of autonomous vehicles can recover to levels of their traditional counterparts due to higher scrap rates 7 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CarsinMillions Annual Vehicles Sales Under Autonomous Vehicle Adoption Years after Introduction of Fully Autonomous Cars Car Without Autonomous Adoption Sales with Autonomous and 6 year replacement Sales with Autonomous and 12 year replacement With the introduction of autonomous vehicles, car sales will drop by more than 50% upon full penetration Increased usage per vehicle (2x the number of miles per year) will increase the scrap rate. At a 6 year scrap rate, vehicle sales can recover after full penetration If vehicle replacement rates remain consistent with current rates (12 years), reduced sales levels will remain Minor regulatory changes can drive significant adoption Fundamental disruption in Mobility Ecosystem Sharing economy will drive AV adoption AVs will make car sharing more attractive Adoption of Electric Vehicles will increase
  • 8. PwC Autonomous vehicles increase the efficiency of the car share car parc, leading to lower service costs through higher utilization and increased attractiveness through higher availability 8 Car Share Attractiveness Car Share Replacement Rate Car Share Cost/ Convenience Car Share Parc Car Share Habit Personal Car Attractiveness Car Share Usage Share of Tips Car Share Car Utilization Supply Demand Imbalance Car Share Availability Autonomous Car Attractiveness Autonomous Car TCO Resale Values Autonomous Tech Costs Autonomous Car Ratio Autonomous Perception As more efficient cars are added to the system, car sharing services will become more convenient and attractive Autonomous vehicles will add scale to car sharing by servicing more trips with fewer cars Autonomous increases total utilization per car, adding minimal amount of mileage waste while increasing profitability Autonomous sharing will cover a larger area without a tradeoff of convenience or utilization, reducing the need for a personal car Autonomous technology will increase the viability of car sharing for most transportation needs, reducing the attractiveness of personal car ownership Minor regulatory changes can drive significant adoption Fundamental disruption in Mobility Ecosystem Sharing economy will drive AV adoption AVs will make car sharing more attractive Adoption of Electric Vehicles will increase 1 2 3 4 5
  • 9. PwC Autonomous vehicles are better able to match demand for vehicle usage, offer convenience that is on par with personal car ownership and making car sharing an attractive transportation alternative 9 Car Sharing Share of Vehicle Trips PercentageofTotalVehicleTrips Without autonomous vehicles, car sharing sees a total penetration of 1% of all vehicle trips (3 to 4 trips per month) at the end of a 30 year period When autonomous cars are introduced, we see adoption reach up to 25%-30% due to the increasing convenience and service attractiveness Note: The model introduces basic assumptions regarding average vehicle cost, cost curve for autonomous technology, tradeoffs between price and convenience for transportation choice, autonomous car efficiencies, and consumer vehicle usage behaviors. The model is calibrated to an average annual vehicle trips and miles traveled and projected monthly trips taken using traditional car sharing services of 3 to 4 trips per month (a metric that is commonly seen in car sharing markets and through other market penetration studies) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 Traditional Car Share Autonomous Car Share Autonomous Car Share Perception Constraint Reducing the consumer acceptance rate by 50% significantly slows autonomous adoption, postponing car sharing adoption growth by 10 years Minor regulatory changes can drive significant adoption Fundamental disruption in Mobility Ecosystem Sharing economy will drive AV adoption AVs will make car sharing more attractive Adoption of Electric Vehicles will increase
  • 10. PwC Autonomous automobile adoption will help fuel the rise of car sharing adoption, generating traffic efficiencies and travel behaviors that will make alternative fuel vehicles more economically attractive 10 Autonomous Car Adoption Car Sharing Emergence Electric Vehicle Adoption Demand for autonomous vehicles to expand sharing business Improved coverage and efficiency, increasing attractiveness Autonomous Car and Car Sharing Synergies Minor regulatory changes can drive significant adoption Fundamental disruption in Mobility Ecosystem Sharing economy will drive AV adoption AVs will make car sharing more attractive Adoption of Electric Vehicles will increase
  • 11. PwC Electric Vehicle Adoption – Autonomous technology will make electric vehicles more affordable and useable, increasing attractiveness for personal car and car sharing parc replacement 11 Car Share Attractiveness Car Share UsageCar Replacement Rate Car Share Convenience Car Share Park Car Share Habit Range Anxiety Increased Range Autonomous Tech Larger Batteries Total Cost of Ownership Resale Price Personal Electric Car Park Electric Attractiveness Fully autonomous car sharing will help eliminate range anxiety as consumers will always have a fully charged car available Transportation needs can be satisfied through a combination of personal electric cars for local trips and fully autonomous car sharing for longer trips Electric car sharing vehicles are currently not cost effective, and range anxiety limits sharing to specific types of trips Lower operating costs and increased utilization will introduce a shift to electric vehicles for car sharing Autonomous technology will increase vehicle usage and introduce faster payback periods through increased usage Minor regulatory changes can drive significant adoption Fundamental disruption in Mobility Ecosystem Sharing economy will drive AV adoption AVs will make car sharing more attractive Adoption of Electric Vehicles will increase 5 1 2 3 4
  • 12. PwC Larger initial investments lead to higher total cost of ownership; however, autonomous technology can help speed up the payback period for electric vehicles and bring the cost per mile in line with traditional engines 12 Usage Lifetime Operating Costs Purchase Price Vehicle Cost Tax Credits Depreciation Fuel CostInsurance Costs Maintenance Miles Traveled Charging Equipment Price Per Mile Autonomous technology will allow cars to have smaller batteries to achieve the same range and may eliminate the need for in home charging, relying on shared infrastructure through autonomous charging trips instead The payback period for higher electric vehicle costs will be reduced through the increased usage, and lower fuel and maintenance costs Faster depreciation due to higher use can be recouped through lower fuel costs and car sharing revenue Autonomous tech will increase the mileage per vehicle by minimizing range anxiety and increasing the number of trips taken with the car through sharing As the price per mile decreases for electric vehicles, the attractiveness will increase Minor regulatory changes can drive significant adoption Fundamental disruption in Mobility Ecosystem Sharing economy will drive AV adoption AVs will make car sharing more attractive Adoption of Electric Vehicles will increase
  • 13. PwC Despite the availability of technology, declining costs, and projected efficiencies, social and legal change will present adoption barriers 13 Investment Costs Regulation Public Trust and Perception Reduced Transportation Costs Convenience and Safety Transportation and service Efficiencies 1http://cyberlaw.stanford.edu/wiki/index.php/Automated_Driving:_Legislative_and_Regulatory_Action 2http://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/insurance/2015/06/09/survey-consumer-fears-self-driving-cars/ 3http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/PDFs/Nov2013MORGAN-STANLEY-BLUE-PAPER-AUTONOMOUS-CARS%EF%BC%9A-SELF-DRIVING-THE-NEW-AUTO-INDUSTRY- PARADIGM.pdf Only 4 states have passed legislation to address autonomous vehicles; 16 are considering, and 9 have failed to pass measures1 Autonomous technology is projected to add $10,0002 to the cost of the car; this is expected to decline to $3,000 by 2035 46% of consumers feel that autonomous cars will not be safe and 28% believe that they will never own one3 Autonomous cars will remove variability and improve driving conditions Commute times will drop due to decreasing congestion; public transit and car sharing will cover larger areas, increasing availability and reducing wait times Autonomous adoption can reduce transportation costs of car ownership through alternative transportation solutions Minor regulatory changes can drive significant adoption Fundamental disruption in Mobility Ecosystem Sharing economy will drive AV adoption AVs will make car sharing more attractive Adoption of Electric Vehicles will increase
  • 14. PwC Small regulatory steps towards introduction of autonomous vehicles to roads can satisfy significant transportation demand 14 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Trips completed above and below 35 MPH in the US Trips(millions) 1 Trips under 35 MPH were assumed to be trips where the distance was less than 15 miles (NHTS). 2 Excluded trips: (a) Trips that are not part of a Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) in the survey data (less than 1% of miles and trips), (b) Trips to a person’s home (as these trips could not be tied to a specific trip purpose and transportation mode, they overshadow the analysis because they represent almost 40% of trips); Source: NHTS (2009). Trips over 35MPHTrips below 35MPH Google announced that Mountain View, CA will allow it to operate fully autonomous vehicles in 35 MPH speed zones Applying the same to all North American cities would account for ~47% (1.75 Billion) of trips and ~28% (6.4 Billion) of miles traveled2 ~50% of short trips taken around a person’s home (e.g. errands and school/daycare) are all completed with average speeds under 35 MPH1 The types of trips are ideal for shared transportation services and can significantly reduce congestion if AVs are utilized Minor regulatory changes can drive significant adoption Fundamental disruption in Mobility Ecosystem Sharing economy will drive AV adoption AVs will make car sharing more attractive Adoption of Electric Vehicles will increase
  • 15. PwC Autonomous vehicles will lead to increased vehicle utilization, shifting driving behaviors, cost efficiencies, and reduced road congestion that will enable car sharing and electric vehicle adoption 15 Reduced car ownership Household car ownership will fall by 43%, from 2.1 to 1.2 vehicles per household More miles driven Each household car will travel 76% more miles due to fall in car ownership, and shared vehicles can travel 174 miles a day to fill a greater volume of trips Greater utilization Shared vehicles will average 26 trips a day over 8 hours, versus 3 trips a day over 1 hour for conventional vehicles, and each family vehicle could see a 75% increase in annual trips Shorter wait times A fleet of shared vehicles could serve most trips within the city, with average wait time of 1 minute and no more than 4 minutes Smaller car parc Each shared vehicle can replace 9.3 conventional vehicles1), and one family vehicle can replace 2 conventional vehicles Falling cost per mile Shared vehicles can cut cost of the average trip from $7.80 to $1 due to automation of labor Lower cost of ownership for electric cars Fewer household cars, increased utilization and car sharing adoption and a low 3 cents/mile cost of charging will pave the way for electric vehicles; an 8% increase in empty vehicle trips will enable cars to charge their batteries when not in use, eliminating range anxiety 1) Assuming all household trips within the city are replaced by shared vehicles; Sources: UMITRI (2015), NHTS (2009), Fagnant and Kockelman (2015), Burns et al. (2013) Minor regulatory changes can drive significant adoption Fundamental disruption in Mobility Ecosystem Sharing economy will drive AV adoption AVs will make car sharing more attractive Adoption of Electric Vehicles will increase
  • 16. PwC Widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles will have implications across the automotive value chain, on city planning and regulation 16 Minor regulatory changes can drive significant adoption Fundamental disruption in Mobility Ecosystem Sharing economy will drive AV adoption AVs will make car sharing more attractive Adoption of Electric Vehicles will increase • 40% fewer annual sales with shorter replacement cycles owing to increased utilization • Increase in vehicle configurations to cater to different mobility requirements (eg. Family vehicles, single passenger vehicles etc.) • Shift towards supplemental revenue-generating activities, such as in-house Mobility Sharing services, Data-driven vehicle prognostics etc. • Shift from personal ownership to business ownership owing to decrease in family car ownership and increased adoption of shared mobility services • Plunging cost of insurance owing to a 90% decrease in crashes • Emergence of new forms of usage-based insurance such as Pay-As-You-Drive (PAYD) and Pay-How-You-Drive (PHYD) insurance, with coverage based on distance, mileage, and trip purpose (own versus shared ride) • Replacement of up to 6 million professional driving jobs with autonomous driving technology • Fully autonomous fleet and lower costs for rental car companies and Car for Hire providers such as Uber • Increased road capacity owing to less congestion and shorter travel times • Replacement of traditional forms of public transit by autonomous vans over time • Increase in multi-modal trips • Increase in suburban sprawl due to decreased range anxiety • Legalizing use of autonomous driving technology in46 states and updating current laws • Tracking the evolution of autonomous technology and legislating accordingly while maintaining technology neutrality Auto Manufacturers Insurance Mobility Service Providers City Planning Regulators Auto Sales and Distribution Industry Implication
  • 17. For additional information contact Dr. Anand S Rao Email: anand.s.rao@pwc.com Twitter: AnandSRao Dr. Anand S Rao anand.s.rao@pwc.com Dr. Mark Paich mark.paich@pwc.com Joseph D Voyles joseph.voyles@pwc.com Aparajita Bijapurkar aparajita.bijapurkar@pwc.com Authors