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"Adaptation to a changing climate in the Arab countries"; a Presentation by Ms. Dorte Verner on Climate Change in the Arab Region. It was presented in a workshop held by Amman Institute in cooperation with the League of Arab States and the World Bank on Monday 24 October 2011
Adaptation to a changing climate in the arab countries
Towards aRegional Flagship Report October, 2011 Dorte Verner, Climate Change Coordinator, Mena Region, The World Bank (email@example.com)
CC is the development challenge of our time, globally & in the Arab countries CC is a threat to poverty reduction and economic growth May reverse many of the development gains made in recent decades This calls for action We need to act now, act together, and act differently (World Bank, 2010)
I. MENA Flagship report I. Objective and Outputs II. Process and Scope III. Preliminary findings IV. Next steps 3
Current and projected climatevariability and Calls for climate change change adaptation to reduce the Increased Vulnerability negative impactsOther stresses, and build climate e.g.: resilient Increase in communities population, urbanizationand education in the Arab countries
Flagship Report: Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab countries that provides: ▪ Information on climate change and consequences ▪ Practical guidance on adaptation to climate change for policymakers Documentary on the climate change impacts and adaptation options in selected Arab countries
We address the Arab region as a whole In the IPCC reports the Arab world is split in 2 parts: North Africa (Africa Ch) & Arabian Peninsula (Asia Ch)
WB is producing the report in partnership with League of Arab States & with inputs from Arab countries: ▪ researchers, institutions, and governments Chapters are drafted by a lead & contributing authors from the region ▪ Summarize the literature in Arabic, French, and English ▪ Identify gaps and provide policy options Advisers from the region guide the process Talented young regional researchers are given an opportunity to contribute through face-to-face and web-based interactions Arab governments are invited to comment and contribute
Chapter Tentative Title: 1 Climate Change and its Economic and Poverty Impacts 2 Ways Forward for Climatology in the Arab Region 3 Options to Reduce Water Stress 4 Improving Rural Livelihoods, Agriculture, and Food Security 5 Improving Urban Livelihoods & Living Conditions 6 Gendered Adaptation to a Changing Climate 7 Improving Health in a Changing Climate 8 A Country Model for Adaptation to a Changing Climate
THE FOLLOWING SLIDES SHOW PRELIMINARY FINDINGS AND MAY BE CHANGED AS WE FINALIZE THE REPORT
Climate change is happening now. In 2010 alone: the warmest year since records began in the late 1800s ▪ Kuwait (52.6 C), Iraq & Saudi Arabia (52.0 C), Qatar (50.4 C) & Sudan (49.7 ) Arabian Sea experienced the 2nd strongest tropical cyclone on record ▪ Cyclone Phet peaked at Category 4 strength; ▪ Oman: killing 44 people & wreaking $700 M in damage Coral reefs took the 2nd worse beating because of record summer ocean water temp
Over the recent decades throughout the region: Temperatures increased by 0.2-0.3 C per decade More frequent and intense heat waves Less, but more intense rainfall, causing increased frequency of droughts and floods Loss of winter precipitation storage in snow mass, inducing summer droughts & loss of winter snow and potentially in tourism All threatening lives and crops & exposing new areas to vector borne diseases
Temperatures are likely to rise 0.3-0.4 C/decade This is 1.5 times faster than the global average Most of North Africa and the eastern Mediterranean will become drier Possible increases in rainfall southern Sudan, Djibouti and Yemen But greater variability and more extremes everywhere
Sea level rise threatening river deltas, coastal cities, wetlands, and small island nations, i.e. Comoros and Bahrain with storm surges, salinized water, and flooding 1.0 m sea level rise will affect 3.2% of the population in MENA – 3 times more than the global average
Climate adaptation strategies that people have exploited throughout history may no longer be available 2200 BC, a temporary climate shift created 300 years of reduced rainfall and colder temperatures that forced people to abandon their rainfed fields in NE Syria Now only option is move to urban areas, e.g. for the Bedu in the Arab countries
The poor are the most vulnerable because of their high dependence on natural resources for their livelihoods poverty status and level of education geographic location and migrant status Climate change is superimposed on existing risks and vulnerabilities faced by poor; Asset-poor Bedu in the arid areas of the Arabian Peninsula have few resources and little capacity to adapt to the changing climate Their limited capacity to cope with climate extremes renders them vulnerable
The economies of Arab countries are projected to be more affected by CC as time passes through CC at the national level & CC occurring in other countries The estimation of potential economic impacts of CVC done by linking: ▪ the downscaling of selected GCMs, ▪ crop models ▪ global economic models, and ▪ subnational-level CGE with micro-simulation modeling Large near and long-term welfare reductions due to CC; measured by household incomes (HI) while taking into account autonomous adaptation, e.g.: By 2020, HI projected reduced: Syria $527 M & Yemen $314.4 M By 2050, HI projected reduced: Syria $3.4 B & Yemen $5.7 B
The number of drought years has increased & droughts are becoming more frequent Avg drought reduce economic growth (GDP) by ~1 pp compared to non-drought year (CGE) Food security worsens significantly during droughts and the poor are hit the hardest ▪ loss of capital, reduced incomes, and higher food prices ▪ poor farm households are most affected, followed by rural nonfarm and urban households ▪ poverty levels increase by 0.3-1.4 pp
Floods are becoming more frequent and induce heavy economic losses & spikes in food insecurity and hunger, e.g. in Yemen: High magnitude flooding leads to loss of crop land, animals, and infrastructure, e.g. irrigation facilities and rural roads Total income loss over 2008-12: 180% of pre-flood agricultural value added Number of hungry people spiked 15 percentage points
Water scarcity is a constraint to socio-economic dev. Today there is already 16% renewable water supply gap met by overexploiting renewable water resources, depleting groundwater and desalinating at high societal and environmental cost In 2050, the region will likely face a 10% reduction in water run off due to climate change 50% renewable water supply gap, hence water need to be e.g. imported; desalinated, etc. Water, km3 Renewable Water 500 16% 37% 51% Resources 400 Total Water Demand 300 % of demand unmet by 200 renewable 100 sources 0 year 2000-2009 2020-2030 2040-2050
The report repeatedly finds Jordan is an example of best practice regarding water resources management (Jordan Valley, etc) Advanced grey water treatment and use Effective tariff schemes Support for private water suppliers Water law enforcement force
But the water availability is one of the lowest in the world 163 m3 per capita, only Gulf states and Libya has less Climate modeling suggests that the important winter precipitation be cut in half by 2050 and temperatures will be 2C higher Jordan has successfully adapted to increasing demand for water in an arid environment until now, but an important question is: can Jordan continue to adapt in a changing climate?
Agricultural output could decrease 20-40% by 2080 due to high dependence on climate-sensitive agriculture 80% of the water goes to agricultural production Increasing water scarcity will require more efficient or less agricultural water consumption Climate resilient production calls for climate resilient crops, animals, trees and fish species, incl. drought & salt tolerant ones Stresses to local food production systems calls for increased import share to bridge the availability gap in most countries Global food price rises, especially spikes, will decrease food access for vulnerable households=>Negative impact on rural livelihoods and incomes
Arab cou has higher Urbanization rates, % u.r. than rest of the 80 world 60 Majority of the 37,000 km of Arab 40 coastline are 20 developed and low- 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 lying coastal zones Arab World World Yemen UAE Tunisia Without basic services, residents of informal settlements have little capacity to adapt to environmental challenges and CC hazards CC vulnerability needs to be considered up front when making urban infrastructure decisions and investments
CC impacts men and women differently Traditional gender roles e.g. imply that woman fetch water Data suggests women are among those least able to adapt because they are often responsible for natural resource & hh management often have limited participation in the decision-making process => smart climate policy is an inclusive process where men & women are empowered and take part in the decision making Women and Men Engaged in Agriculture, % of Economically Active Population (2004) 90 80 70 60 50 40 Women 30 Men 20 10 0 Algeria Djibouti Egypt Jordan Lebanon Morocco Somalia Sudan Syria Tunisia Yemen
The Jordan is the first Arab country both to mainstream gender in adaptation policy and The national women’s strategy incorporates awareness of climate change and the linkages between gender, gender equality, and adaptation. However, women make up a small proportion of total landowners: 29 percent in Jordan (albeit higher than in all other Arab countries) Jordan is beginning from a leadership role but faces enormous problems. This calls for all youth, woman & men being involved in the decision-making process
Specifically malaria, dengue and other vector borne and waterborne diseases The most vulnerable to climate related diseases are: internally displaced & those with low socio-economic status residents of low lying areas and camps and slums those who work outdoors, e.g. in construction Healthcare systems in most Arab countries are currently unable to provide well for the climate related health needs due to lack of data
An IPCC approach to drafting January 2011: First workshop ▪ Identified links between the topic areas ▪ Developed annotated outline of the background paper for each chapter March 2011: “Zero” drafts provided by Lead Authors ▪ Posted on Internet for public review and comments June 2011: Second workshop: writing workshop ▪ Chapters were substantially improved ▪ Creation of mini-chapters on cross-cutting issues
July 2011: Authors provided a well-formed draft ▪ This draft form the basis of the preparation of the current 1st draft report October 2011: Draft to LAS & MoEs for comments ▪ The draft to be presented and discussed at the JCEDAR, LAS ▪ Consultations: Jordan, Lebanon, Tunisia, and UAE (TBC) December: Cop17 side-event, e.g. with Gov. of Lebanon January 2012: Third workshop: ▪ Incorporating comments provided by the governments, etc. February/ March 2012: Finalize the report April 2012: Launch Report, Movie, Portal, ...
This consultation is an important part of the process of producing the report It is your chance to contribute and comment on the current draft Equivalent to IPCC’s Government and Expert Review stage The draft report will be up on the internet (web address in the flyer) This is your change to let us know what you think about the report Please read it and send us comments and suggestions for improvements Thank you in advance.
Italian Development Cooperation European Union International Fund for Agricultural Development League of Arab States World Bank’s MENA Region & Environment Unit