Over the next 20 years, population growth in Sydney will be driven by natural increase from births outpacing deaths and overseas migration exceeding emigration. Sydney has a relatively young population that will contribute to higher birth rates. The population is also aging as Baby Boomers move into older age groups. From 2011 to 2031, Sydney's population is projected to grow from 4.29 million to 5.86 million people through increases in births, overseas arrivals, and a higher number of households formed.
sydney metropolitan population household and dwelling projections
1. Sydney Metropolitan
POPULATION,
HOUSEHOLD &
DWELLING
PROJECTIONS
Over half of Sydney’s growth over the next 20 years is likely to be
driven by natural increase - that is the difference between births and
deaths. The younger age profile in Sydney means a large number
of potential mothers contributing to a higher number of births.
Overseas migration will also be an important driver of Sydney’s
growth, with more international arrivals than departures.
These will offset the net losses of people interstate and to
other parts of New South Wales.
DEMOGRAPHIC
DRIVERS OF
CHANGE
Sydney has a relatively young population with large
numbers of people of working age.
The fastest growing age groups are those over the
age of 65 with the Baby Boomer generation and those
who migrated during the post-war years moving into
these age groups.
2011-16 2016-21 2021-26 2026-31
NET MIGRATION
NATURAL INCREASE
207,150
164,300
224,100
182,450
233,150
169,800
232,350
162,250 2011 2021 2031
4.29million
5.06million
5.86million
POPULATION CHANGE
1,575,550
MORE PEOPLE +1.6%
FEMALESMALES
2.5 million2.5 million 2.02.0 1.51.5 1.01.0 0.50.5 0
2011 - 2031
0 - 4
5 - 9
10 -14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 84
85+
AVERAGE
ANNUAL GROWTH
2031 203120112011
2 0 1 1 2 0 2 1 2 0 3 1 A V E R A G E A N N U A L
G R O W T H
3.16%
801,850 980,050 1,112,900 1.64%UNDER 15
P O P U L A T I O N
525,750 738,800 989,60065 AND OVER
P O P U L A T I O N
BIRTHS
OVERSEAS
MIGRATION
2. POPULATION,
HOUSEHOLD &
DWELLING
PROJECTIONS
Disclaimer
While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure that these projections are correct at the time of release, the State of New South Wales,
its agents and employees, disclaim any and all liability to any person in respect of anything or the consequences of anything done or omitted to
be done in reliance upon the whole or any part of these projections.
Region: Sydney Metropolitan Date of release: 2014 www.planning.nsw.gov.au
DRIVERS OF HOUSEHOLD CHANGE
Continued population growth will see growth in the number
of households.
Population ageing will contribute to increases in couple
only and lone person households.
The large number of people in their 20s and 30s will
contribute to growth in households with children.
2011 2021 2031
1,566,450
1,875,700
2,190,300
HOUSEHOLD CHANGE
623,850MORE HOUSEHOLDS
AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2.5 million2 million1.5 million1 million0.5 million0
KEY
2011 1,673,800 homes
2,003,100 homes
2,338,100 homes
2021
2031
COUPLE ONLY
1.7%
1.5%
1.9%
1.4%
2.1%
0.8%
COUPLE WITH
CHILDREN
MULTIPLE + OTHER
FAMILY
SINGLE PARENT LONE PERSON GROUP
AVERAGE
ANNUAL
GROWTH
2011-2031
2011
2.69
PEOPLE
2021
2.65
PEOPLE
2031
2.62
PEOPLE
SYDNEY METROPOLITAN 2011 - 2031
AVERAGE
ANNUAL GROWTH
AVERAGE
ANNUAL GROWTH
+1.7%
+1.7%
664,300NEW HOMES NEEDED
FROM 2011 - 2031