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SECTOR UPDATE


OIL AND GAS
Ethylene Global Demand-Supply Scenario
India Equity Research | Oil, Gas and Services


Global demand for ethylene to grow at a healthy rate of 4.8% CAGR over
2010-15, compared to a growth rate of 1.5% over the last 5 years. In spite
of healthy demand, there is likely to be an oversupply situation during
2010-11 due largely to huge capacity addition in the Middle East and
China – leading to decreased ethylene prices and margins. The situation is
expected to improve after 2011 due to limited capacity addition. Global
capacity utilization decreased to around 80% during 2010, but is expected
to increase substantially till 2015 to reach a high of 95%.

Global ethylene oversupply scenario not as bad
Though there is concern that the new capacities coming up in the Middle East and
China are going to flood the world market, depressing ethylene prices and margins, we
believe that most of the scheduled projects, amounting to 10 mtpa (million tonnes per
annum), have already come online by 2010. Only marginal new capacity of 9 mtpa is
expected to come online till 2015. Large projects totaling 12 mtpa, which are delayed
because of a number of reasons, such as, feedstock availability, impact of financial
crisis, regulatory approval and environmental impact, are not expected to come online
anytime soon.

Healthy demand growth led by polymer demand in China and India
Demand for ethylene is expected to grow at a healthy rate of 4.8% CAGR between
2011-15 driven by strong polyethylene (PE) demand from developing economies in
Asia. PE demand per capita in India is very low at 2kg against a world average of 10.3
kg. We expect the PE demand per capita in developing countries like China and India to
grow in line with their high GDP growth rate, consuming the added capacity.

Asian crackers have bi-product netback; Middle East (ME) crackers
short of feedstock
Most of the crackers that are coming up in China are Naphtha based. Though Naphtha
costs more than Ethane, it gives 17x more bi-product netback than ethane based
crackers.
On the other hand, large projects planned in the Middle East are delayed or cancelled
because of concerns of natural gas availability – thus tightening ethylene supply
situation. The two factors together are expected to contribute positively to cracker
operators’ bottom lines.

Ethylene margins to grow in line with higher capacity utilization
We expect that the utilization rates of the crackers will reach a trough in 2010-11, and
then the demand scenario will tighten till 2015 – primarily driven by healthy demand
growth in line with rebound in global economy and less capacity addition. This will drive
                                                                                            Alin Dev
better margin for the cracker operators.                                                    +1-617-504-3157
                                                                                            alin.dev@edelcap.com

                                                                                            August 29, 2011


                Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com,                       Edelweiss Securities Limited
                                               1
                Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset.
Oil and Gas




              2   Edelweiss Securities Limited
Sector Update

Contents
Ethylene Supply.................................................................................................................................................................. 5
    Middle East: ................................................................................................................................................................... 6
    Asia: ............................................................................................................................................................................... 7
    US and Europe: .............................................................................................................................................................. 7
Ethylene Demand ............................................................................................................................................................... 8
Ethylene Economics ........................................................................................................................................................... 9
    Feedstock Slate: ........................................................................................................................................................... 10
Ethylene Margin & Utilization Rate .................................................................................................................................. 12
APPENDIX – I .................................................................................................................................................................... 14
    What is Ethylene? ........................................................................................................................................................ 14
    Ethylene Value Chain ................................................................................................................................................... 14
        Feedstocks ............................................................................................................................................................... 15
        Intermediates .......................................................................................................................................................... 15
        Derivatives ............................................................................................................................................................... 16
APPENDIX – II ................................................................................................................................................................... 19
    How is Ethylene Produced? ......................................................................................................................................... 19
APPENDIX – III .................................................................................................................................................................. 21
    Middle East Feedstock concerns: ................................................................................................................................. 21
        Saudi Arabia: ........................................................................................................................................................... 22
        Iran: ......................................................................................................................................................................... 23
        Qatar: ...................................................................................................................................................................... 23
APPENDIX – IV .................................................................................................................................................................. 24
    Existing and expected cracker capacities all over the world ........................................................................................ 24
APPENDIX – V ................................................................................................................................................................... 40
    Sensitivity Analysis ....................................................................................................................................................... 40




                                                        3                                                                                    Edelweiss Securities Limited
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              4   Edelweiss Securities Limited
Sector Update

Ethylene Supply

Global ethylene capacity has dramatically increased between 2005 and 2010 from 115.2 million tonnes per annum to
144 mtpa, growing at a CAGR 4.6%. During the same period China has added 14.2 mtpa of ethylene cracker capacity,
                                                                                     while     Middle     Eastern
Chart 1: World ethylene capacity has grown at CAGR 3% from 2004-15                   countries    have     nearly
                                                                                      doubled their capacity to
                                                                                      23.6 mtpa. At the same
                                                                                      time, during 2006-10 the
                                                                                      cumulative capacity share
                                                                                      of Western Europe and
                                                                                      North America dropped
                                                                                      from 53% to 42.5%.

                                                                                             Total ethylene capacity is
                                                                                             expected     to    continue
                                                                                             increasing, though at a
                                                                                             subdued rate, till 2015
                                                                                             when the capacity will reach
                                                                                             152.7 mtpa representing a
                                                                                             CAGR of 1.2% from 2010-15
                                                                                             with Asia, mainly China, and
                                                                                             Middle East, mainly Saudi
                                                                                             Arabia adding major portion
                                                                                             of the new capacity.
                                             Source: Oil & Gas Journal, Edelweiss research




We believe that most of the scheduled projects, amounting to 10 mtpa, have already come online by 2010. Only
marginal new capacity of 9 mtpa is expected to come online till 2015. Large projects totaling 12 mtpa, which are
delayed because of a number of reasons, such as, feedstock availability, impact of financial crisis, regulatory approval
and environmental impact, are not expected to come online anytime soon.




                                    5                                                        Edelweiss Securities Limited
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Chart 2: Most of the incremental capacity has already been added by 2010




                                                                           Source: Oil & Gas Journal, Edelweiss research




Middle East:
Availability of cheap crude oil and high dependence of the kingdoms on oil revenue have driven the kingdoms and
governments to diversify into manufacturing commodity chemicals and capture more value from the commodity
nature of crude oil. Middle Eastern countries are also better positioned to transport petrochemicals at a lower cost to
developed markets in Europe, as well as high growth markets in Asia. This being a labor intensive industry, the
governments are also able to generate meaningful employment for its people by developing the petrochemical
industry. To bring about rapid growth in the petrochemicals industry, Middle Eastern countries provide different
incentives to investors. Some of the incentives typically provided in Saudi Arabia include:
 Subsidized natural gas at $ 0.75 per Mmbtu.
 A complex discount system for domestic users with NGLs garnering a 30 percent discount on the export price of
    naphtha and naphtha itself receiving an 11 percent discount on its export price. Costs therefore fluctuate in line
    with global oil prices, though Saudi producers using liquids still retain a competitive advantage.



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Asia:
                                                     Chart 3: Asia & ME will account for 50% of the cracker
Capacity growth in Asia has been largely led by      capacity
large scale projects in China. Chinese state-
owned players like Sinopec and PetroChina are
rapidly building new ethylene capacity, aided by
favorable government policies for joint ventures
with foreign majors. But, environmental worries,
economically unviable size of scattered
petrochemicals plants and the potential threat of
overcapacity could delay the commercial start of
production. In the long term, China could be a
potential competitor to Middle Eastern
petrochemicals players as petrochemical imports
from the Kingdoms are replaced by local Chinese
output.

                                                                        Source: Oil & Gas Journal, Edelweiss research




US and Europe:

  Chart 4: North America – median age of a plant is           Chart 5: Western Europe – median age of a plant
  32 years                                                    is 30 years




                                 Source: Edelweiss research                                  Source: Edelweiss research


High feedstock costs coupled with stagnant demand have depressed capacity growth in the developed markets.
Cheaper imports from ME have forced many economically unviable and older producers to shutdown.




                                   7                                                   Edelweiss Securities Limited
Oil and Gas

Ethylene Demand
                         Chart 6: Demand for ethylene is highly correlated to GDP and population

Demand for ethylene
is strongly correlated
with     both     GDP
growth rate and
growth in population
with correlation of
87%      and      90%
respectively.




                                                                          Source: CMAI Global, IMF, Edelweiss research

                                                              Chart 7: Ethylene demand per capita is expected
                                                              to grow at CAGR 4.8% till 2015
Demand per capita for ethylene has historically grown at
an average growth rate of 3% Y-o-Y since 2000, barring the
past few years of global economic slowdown and a dip in
2005 when most of the PE plants in North America were
shut down following hurricane Katrina. We expect the
demand to grow at CAGR 4.8% till 2015 to reach 146 mtpa
driven by strong demand growth and rapid urbanization in
high growth emerging economies of China and India.




                                                                          Source: CMAI Global, IMF, Edelweiss research


                                                              Chart 8: Ethylene demand – GDP elasticity to be
                                                              1.1x
Demand for ethylene has historically grown with GDP
with an elasticity of 1.06x since 2000, with exceptions in
the past couple of years due to the financial crisis and in
2005 due to the rampage of hurricane Katrina. We expect
the elasticity to gradually increase to 1.1x in 2015 due to
strong demand growth from countries such as China and
India driven by rapid urbanization and industrialization.




                                                                          Source: CMAI Global, IMF, Edelweiss research

                                    8                                                    Edelweiss Securities Limited
Sector Update

Demand for ethylene is expected to       Chart 9: Ethylene demand to grow at CAGR 4.8% while little new
                                         capacity will come up after 2011
grow at a healthy rate of 4.8% CAGR
till 2015, while the capacity is
expected to grow at a minimal rate
of 1.2% CAGR during the same
period with very little capacities
expected to come online after 2011.

PE demand per capita in developing
economies is very low compared to
world average of 10.3 kg. We expect
the PE demand per capita in
developing countries like China and
India to grow in line with their high
GDP growth rates, consuming the
added capacity.


                                                                           Source: CMAI Global, IMF, Edelweiss research



Ethylene Economics
Due to the commoditized nature of the basic chemicals business, price is the single most important factor in
determining the competitiveness of players in the market place as there is only marginal differentiation between the
products of different suppliers.
                                              Chart 10: ME producers enjoy the lowest cost of production
                                              riding on cheap ethane
It is not all about who has the biggest
plant - the next plant built will be the
Biggest Plant; it is also not about who has
the best technology - technology has
become readily available; it is not even
about who traded there first -
competitive conditions dictate decisions.
It is literally about the cost.

With price of ethylene fixed on a cost-
plus basis based on the highest cost
producer, feedstock cost is the most
important factor in determining the
ethylene margins across different
geography.
                                                                                                   Source: CMAI Global




                                     9                                                  Edelweiss Securities Limited
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Feedstock Slate:
                                                       Chart 11: Olefins Feedstock vs. Crude Oil Prices
Petrochemicals are produced by cracking Naphtha or
ethane.

Since 2008, the relative price of U.S. ethane (as a
percent of crude oil price) has been trending down,
due to cheaper U.S. natural gas. This benefits the
petrochemical producers using natural gas as feed
stock, but there is always a trade off as naphtha
unlocks more sophisticated derivatives.

Cracking ethane generates a large proportion of
ethylene (95%) while cracking naphtha gives better
byproduct credit. A typical cracker output is given
below:
                                                                         Source: Lyondell Basell Investor Day 2010

 Table 1: Cracker output slate




                                                       Chart 12: Napththa vs ethane cracker margin widens

    Source: Platts, ICIS pricing, Edelweiss Research




Ethane crackers enjoy a higher margin as
naphtha prices rallied with crude oil price,
while natural gas price remained stable.

Middle Eastern countries which provide natural
gas at an average subsidized rate of USD
4/mmBtu, enjoys still higher margins though
the gap narrowed in the recent years driven by
a fall in natural gas prices in the international
market.

                                                                  Source: Platts, ICIS pricing, Edelweiss Research


                                      10                                               Edelweiss Securities Limited
Sector Update

  Chart 13: Regional feedstock slate of steam crackers




                                                                                    Feedstock-related costs account for
                                                                                    over 50% of the total cash costs of
                                                                                    the final output of petrochemical
                                                                                    companies.

                                                                                    Most of the crackers in Asia and
                                                                                    Europe are Naphtha based while
                                                                                    those in the Middle East and North
                                                                                    America are ethane based. Though
                                                                                    Naphtha costs more than Ethane,
                                                                                    Naphtha gives 17x more bi-product
                                                                                    netback than ethane based crackers.

                                                  Source: OGJ, Edelweiss Research




                                                    Chart 14: Propylene-ethylene spread widens
Meanwhile, propylene / ethylene price ratio
continues to increase as ethylene production
from ethane increases driven by higher
cracker margin realization and propylene
production from steam naphtha crackers
declines owing to large ethane cracker
capacity addition in the ME. The effect is even
more pronounced in the case of butadiene
which is used as a substitute for natural
rubber.




                                                                                    Source: Bloomberg, Edelweiss Research




                                    11                                                      Edelweiss Securities Limited
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Ethylene Margin & Utilization Rate
                                                    Chart 15: Beginning of a new cycle of profitability


The cracker industry is cyclical in nature and
historically operated in a 7-8 year cycle. We
believe that the ROCE cycle of the industry
based on replacement cost of a steam cracker
will hit trough in 2011, and will see the
beginning of new cycle starting 2011-12.




                                                                    Source: CERA Downstream Index, Edelweiss Research




                                                           Chart 16: Operating rate follows gross margin

Historically operating rates of crackers have closely
followed ethylene margin as the operators have
more incentive to run the plant at a higher
operating rate when the margins are higher, and
lower the rate when the margins are declining.




                                                                                             Source: Edelweiss Research




                                     12                                                  Edelweiss Securities Limited
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                                                        Chart 17: Ethylene-Naphtha crack is expected to
                                                        grow in line with higher operating rate


We believe that the gross ethylene margin will start
strengthening in line with higher ethylene prices and
gradually increase to USD 460 per tonne, along with
higher operating rates of the crackers though the
crackers will not see high margins of 2004-06 anytime
soon partly because of higher crude oil prices.




                                                                                      Source: Edelweiss Research




                                                        Chart 18: Cracker margin is expected to grow along
                                                        with higher bi-product prices



At the same time the net cracker margin realized will
gradually strengthen to USD 383 per tonne by the
year 2015, riding on higher bi-product netbacks.




                                                                                     Source: Edelweiss Research




                                   13                                             Edelweiss Securities Limited
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APPENDIX – I
What is Ethylene?

Ethylene is the raw material used in the manufacture of polymers such as polyethylene (PE), polyethylene
terephthalate (PET), polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and polystyrene (PS) as well as fibers and other organic chemicals. These
products are used in a wide variety of industrial and consumer markets such as the packaging, transportation,
electrical/electronic, textile and construction industries as well as consumer chemicals, coatings and adhesives.

Ethylene is one of the largest-volume petrochemicals. With a diverse range of end-uses, demand for ethylene is
sensitive to both economic and energy cycles. It is often seen as a barometer to the performance of the petrochemical
industry as whole.

According to CMAI, global production and consumption of ethylene in 2010 were both approximately 115m tonnes.
Global capacity utilization (demand / capacity) was 83.1% in 2010, down from 88% in 2009. Ethylene consumption is
estimated to have increased by 2.1% in 2010; it is forecast to grow an average 4.9% per year up to 2015.



Ethylene Value Chain
 Chart A1-1: Ethylene value chain




                                                                                        Source:Edelweiss research

                                   14                                                    Edelweiss Securities Limited
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Feedstocks
      Ethane: Ethane is isolated on an industrial scale from natural gas, and as a byproduct of petroleum refining. Its
      chief use is as petrochemical feedstock for ethylene production.

      Naphtha: Naphtha is obtained in petroleum refineries as one of the intermediate products from the distillation
      of crude oil. It is a liquid intermediate between the light gases in the crude oil and the heavier liquid kerosene.
      The generic name 'naphtha' describes a range of different refinery intermediate products used in different
      applications. Naphtha is used primarily as feedstock for producing high octane gasoline (via the catalytic
      reforming process). It is also used in the bitumen mining industry as a diluent, the petrochemical industry for
      producing olefins in steam crackers, and the chemical industry for solvent (cleaning) applications.

Intermediates
      Ethylene Oxide: Because of its special molecular structure, ethylene oxide easily participates in the addition
      reaction and thus easily polymerizes. Although it is a vital raw material with diverse applications, including the
      manufacture of products like polyethylene glycol that are often more effective and less toxic than alternative
      materials, ethylene oxide itself is a very hazardous substance: at room temperature it is a flammable,
      carcinogenic, mutagenic, irritating, and anesthetic gas with a misleadingly pleasant aroma. Therefore, it is
      commonly handled and shipped as a refrigerated liquid.

      The chemical reactivity that is responsible for many of
                                                                        Chart A1-2: Global Ethylene
      ethylene oxide's hazards has also made it a key industrial        Derivatives
      chemical that supports the living standards of advanced
      societies. Ethylene oxide (EO) is primarily used to make
      ethylene glycol. Other EO derivatives include ethyoxylates
      (for use in shampoo, kitchen cleaners, etc), glycol ethers
      (solvents, fuels, etc) and ethanol amines (surfactants,
      personal care products, etc).

      Ethylene Glycol: Ethylene glycol is an organic compound
      widely used as automotive antifreeze and a precursor to
      polymers. Ethylene glycol is produced from ethylene, via
      the intermediate ethylene oxide. Ethylene oxide reacts with                           Source:Edelweiss research
      water to produce ethylene glycol.

      Most monoethylene glycol (MEG) is used to make polyester fibers for textile applications, PET resins for bottles
      and polyester film. MEG is also used in antifreeze applications.

      Ethyl Benzene: This aromatic hydrocarbon is important in the petrochemical industry as an intermediate in the
      production of styrene, which in turn is used for making polystyrene, a common plastic material.
      Although often present in small amounts in crude oil, ethylbenzene is produced in bulk quantities by
      combining benzene and ethylene in an acid-catalyzed chemical reaction.



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       Styrene: Styrene, also known as vinyl benzene, is a colorless oily liquid that evaporates easily. The presence of
       the vinyl group allows styrene to polymerize. Commercially significant products include polystyrene, ABS,
       styrene-butadiene (SBR) rubber, styrene-butadiene latex and other products.

       Ethylene dichloride: Ethylene dichloride (EDC) is a chlorinated hydrocarbon, mainly used to produce vinyl
       chloride monomer (VCM), the major precursor for PVC production. Production is primarily achieved through
       the iron (III) chloride-catalyzed reaction of ethylene and chlorine.

       Vinyl chloride: VCM is an important industrial chemical chiefly used to produce the polymer polyvinyl chloride
       (PVC). It can be produced by two methods - hydrochlorination of acetylene and dehydrochlorination of
       ethylene dichloride. Due to the relatively low cost of ethylene, compared to acetylene, most vinyl chloride has
       been produced via dehydrochlorination of EDC, despite lower yields (50-60%), lower product purity and higher
       costs for waste treatment.

Derivatives
       PET: Polyethylene terephthalate is a thermoplastic polymer resin of the polyester family and is used in
       synthetic fibers; beverage, food and other liquid containers; thermoforming applications; and engineering
       resins often in combination with glass fiber. The majority of the world's PET production is for synthetic fibers
       (in excess of 60%) with bottle production accounting for around 30% of global demand. In discussing textile
       applications, PET is generally referred to as simply "polyester" while "PET" is used most often to refer to
       packaging applications. The polyester industry makes up about 18% of world polymer production.

                                                            Polystyrene: PS is an aromatic polymer made from the
                                                            monomer styrene. Polystyrene is one of the most widely
                                                            used plastics, the scale being several billion kilograms per
                                                            year. Solid polystyrene is used, for example, in disposable
                                                            cutlery, plastic models, CD and DVD cases, and smoke
                                                            detector housings. Products made from foamed
                                                            polystyrene are nearly ubiquitous, for example packing
                                                            materials, insulation, and foam drink cups.

                                                            Polyethylene: The largest outlet, accounting for 60% of
                                                            ethylene demand globally, is polyethylene. Polyethylene is
                                                            a thermoplastic polymer consisting of long chains
                                                            produced by combing the ingredient monomer ethylene.
                                                            PE is classified into several different categories based
       mostly on its density and branching. The mechanical properties of PE depend significantly on variables such as
       the extent and type of branching, the crystal structure and the molecular weight. With regard to sold volumes,
       the most important polyethylene grades are HDPE, LLDPE and LDPE.




                                   16                                                     Edelweiss Securities Limited
Sector Update

HDPE is defined by a density of greater or equal to 0.941 g/cm3. It has
a low degree of branching and thus stronger intermolecular forces and
tensile strength. HDPE is used in products and packaging such as milk
jugs, detergent bottles, margarine tubs, garbage containers and water
pipes. One third of all toys are manufactured from HDPE.




                                                                                Source:Edelweiss research




LDPE is defined by a density range of 0.910–0.940 g/cm3. It has a
high degree of short and long chain branching, which means that
the chains do not pack into the crystal structure as well. This results
in a lower tensile strength and increased ductility. The high degree
of branching with long chains gives molten LDPE unique and
desirable flow properties. LDPE is used for both rigid containers and
plastic film applications such as plastic bags and film wrap.



                                                                             Source:Edelweiss research




                             17                                           Edelweiss Securities Limited
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   LLDPE is defined by a density range of 0.915–0.925 g/cm3. It is a
   substantially linear polymer with significant numbers of short
   branches. LLDPE has higher tensile strength than LDPE and
   exhibits higher impact and puncture resistance; thus lower
   thickness (gauge) films can be blown, compared with LDPE, with
   better environmental stress cracking resistance but is not as
   easy to process. LLDPE is used in packaging, particularly film for
   bags and sheets. Lower thickness may be used compared to
   LDPE for use in cable covering, toys, lids, buckets, containers
   and pipe. While other applications are available, LLDPE is used
   predominantly in film applications due to its toughness, flexibility                     Source:Edelweiss research
   and relative transparency. Product examples range from
   agricultural films, saran wrap, and bubble wrap, to multilayer and composite films.




   PVC: Polyvinyl chloride is a thermoplastic polymer. PVC is the third most widely produced plastic, after
   polyethylene and polypropylene. It is widely used in construction because it is cheap, durable, and easy to
   assemble. A number of PVC's properties recommend it for a wide variety of applications. It is biologically and
   chemically resistant, making it the plastic of choice for most household sewerage pipes and other pipe
   applications where corrosion would limit the use of metal. With the addition of impact modifiers and
   stabilizers, it becomes a popular material for window and door frames. By adding plasticizers, it can become
   flexible enough to be used in cabling applications as a wire insulator. It is also used to make vinyl records.

   PVC is a controversial material in that during its production, useful life and incineration, especially in accidental
   and uncontrolled circumstances, it may liberate persistent toxins, which the manufacture, use and destruction
   of suitable alternative plastics, such as, polypropylene do not.

   Other ethylene derivatives include alpha olefins which are used in LLDPE production, detergent alcohols and
   plasticizer alcohols; vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) which is used in adhesives, paints, paper coatings and
   barrier resins; and industrial ethanol which is used as a solvent or in the manufacture of chemical
   intermediates such as ethyl acetate and ethylacrylate.




                                18                                                       Edelweiss Securities Limited
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APPENDIX – II
How is Ethylene Produced?

Ethylene is produced commercially by the steam cracking of a wide range of hydrocarbon feedstocks. In Europe and
Asia, ethylene is obtained mainly from cracking naphtha, gasoil and condensates with the coproduction of propylene,
C4 olefins and aromatics (pyrolysis gasoline). The cracking of ethane and propane, primarily carried out in the US,
Canada and the Middle East, has the advantage that it only produces ethylene and propylene, making the plants
cheaper to construct and less complicated to operate.

Chart A2-1: Steam Cracking Process
                                                                                          Olefin cracking and inter-
                                                                                          conversion processes are
                                                                                          being developed to boost
                                                                                          light olefins      output.
                                                                                          Typically,    they     can
                                                                                          convert C4-C8 olefins and
                                                                                          light pyrolysis gasoline
                                                                                          into     ethylene      and
                                                                                          propylene.          Newer
                                                                                          catalytic processes are
                                                                                          under development that
                                                                                          provide enhanced control
                                                                                          of the cracking process or
                                                                                          permit            catalytic
                                                                                          dehydrogenation         of
                                                                                          ethane.

                                                                                          Small quantities of dilute
                                                                                          ethylene can also be
                                                                                          obtained from refinery
                                                                                          streams. In South Africa,
                                                                                          ethylene is produced by
                                                                                          the         Fisher-Tropsch
                                                                                          process     from     gases
                                                                                          obtained       by      coal
                                                                                          gasification. Efforts have
                                                                                          been made to develop
                                                                                          processes which can
                                                                                          crack crude or residual oil




                                  19                                                  Edelweiss Securities Limited
Oil and Gas

but they suffer from high operating costs.

Processes are available that use lower alcohols as feedstocks. Norsk Hydro and UOP have developed a MTO (methanol-
to-olefins) technology that converts methanol to ethylene and propylene. There is considerable interest in using this
technology in China with methanol produced via the gasification of coal.

Working with UOP, Total has developed a technology which takes the heavier olefins from the MTO unit and converts
them into lighter olefins, more specifically into propylene. A pilot plant has been built at Feluy, Belgium, to assess this
olefin cracking process (OCP) in conjunction with the MTO process.

Much research is being conducted into the direct conversion of methane to ethylene. However, the problem with this
technology, called oxidative coupling of methane (OCM), is the low per-pass yield of ethylene and the high yield of
unwanted carbon oxide by-products such as carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide. Most attempts to increase product
yield have been through new catalyst formulations. Research is also focusing on making further use of the carbon
oxides by producing methanol or methane.




                                     20                                                     Edelweiss Securities Limited
Sector Update

APPENDIX – III
Middle East Feedstock concerns:
     Gas demand in the         Chart A3-1: Electricity demand in the ME countries have grown 8.7%
     Middle East has been      CAGR from 1980
     rising by around 7%
     per annum and it has
     outpaced the growth
     in    regional     gas
     production.
     Domestic       demand
     growth is fuelled by
     economic expansion,
     low gas prices, the
     switch from oil to gas
     for power generation
     and the injection of
     gas into oil reservoirs
     to     enhance      oil
     recovery.

     In the Middle East,
     there is tension
     between             the
     requirement          to
     supply       domestic
     markets     to     fuel
     economic       growth
     and the desire to
     achieve         higher
     revenues via export
     sales    agreements.
     73% of the Middle                                             Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
     East gas reserves are
     concentrated in just two countries: Iran and Qatar. Qatar, which is the world’s largest LNG producer and
     exporter, has a moratorium on new North Field developments and export sales agreements until 2012.

     Outside of Iran and Qatar, a significant proportion of the region’s gas reserves are in associated oil deposits,
     and so gas production is not flexible. Much of the gas in the region is also sour, which makes it more difficult
     and costly to extract and process. Domestic sales prices, which are subsidized to varying degrees, may need to
     rise to cover the additional processing costs and investment required in gas infrastructure.


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   Price subsidies, political differences and more lucrative export opportunities have reduced the availability of
   gas produced in the Middle East for consumption in the region. As a result, there is limited intra-regional
   infrastructure in place for the transportation of natural gas. Individual countries in the Middle East have
   developed independent strategies to address their rising demand for natural gas. Saudi Arabia is looking to
   substantially increase gas production to meet growing domestic demand and UAE has been actively looking at
   unconventional gas reserves. The emirate’s associated gas is increasingly being used for reinjection. Rapid
   economic development and high domestic power subsidies have prompted UAE to take alternative measures
   to meet future demand.                  Chart A3-2: Saudi ethane will be more dependent on oil
                                         production
   Saudi Arabia:         The current
   capacity of ethane crackers in the
   country is 6.1 mtpa while it is
   expected to increase to 6.4 mtpa
   over the next five years. Saudi
   Arabia currently produces enough
   ethane to supply to the crackers;
   however, electricity production is
   also expected to grow at more
   than 8%. As most of the natural
   gas produced in Saudi Arabia is
   associated gas (hence the
                                                                                                 Source: CMAI Global
   production is capped by OPEC
                                         Chart A3-3: KSA ethane deliveries may turn below allocations
   crude oil production quota of 8.4
   million bpd), and lower regulated
   price ($0.75 per mmBtu) does
   not provide any incentive for
   drilling     non-associated    gas,
   ethane supply is expected to
   tighten in the future. Though the
   government is planning to
   increase the gas price to $1.2 per
   mmBtu from 2012, this may not
   be practically possible in the near
   term, given the tense socio
   political situation throughout the
                                                                                                 Source: CMAI Global
   Middle East.




                               22                                                   Edelweiss Securities Limited
Sector Update

Iran: Iran has ethane cracker       Chart A3-4: Sanctions continue to delay Iran

capacity of 3.7 mtpa while the
largest non-associated gas field,
South Pars, can produce enough
ethane to support 1.35 mtpa.
The country has plans to
produce additional natural gas
from South Pars over the next
five years that can support upto
4.5 mtpa of cracker capacity.

Qatar: Qatar has put a
moratorium on any new projects
requiring natural gas till 2012.                                                       Source: CMAI Global
Depending on the outcome of its
ongoing study of the natural gas reserve in the country, even if the moratorium is lifted in 2012, no new
capacity can come up before 2016.

Bottom line: The demand for natural gas has exponentially grown throughout the Middle East riding on cheap
pricing. This puts a risk of feedstock availability in the new multi million tonne projects.




                           23                                                 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Oil and Gas


APPENDIX – IV
Existing and expected cracker capacities all over the world

Country      Company      Location        Capacity,     Capacity,   Year of                  Feedstock Slate (%)
                                          tonnes/       tonnes/     Completion
                                          year 2010     year        (Existing        C2    C3     C4    Naphtha     Gasoil    Other
                                          Existing      New         capacity=2010)

ALGERIA      Sonatrach    Skikda              133,000                    2010        100

             Dow          Bahia
ARGENTINA    Chemical     Blanca              275,000                    2010        100
             Co.          (BB1)
             Dow          Bahia
ARGENTINA    Chemical     Blanca              490,000                    2010        100
             Co.          (BB2)
             Huntsman     San
pARGENTINA                                     21,000                    2010              25                 75
             Corp.        Lorenzo
             Petrobras    Puerto San
ARGENTINA                                      32,500                    2010              100
             Energia      Martin
             Petrobras    San
ARGENTINA                                      20,000                    2010              100
             Energia      Lorenzo
             Huntsman
             Chemical
                          Melbourne,
AUSTRALIA    Co.                               32,000                    2010        100
                          Vic.
             Australia
             Ltd.
             Qenos Pty.
AUSTRALIA                 Altona, Vic.        180,000                    2010        80      5    15
             Ltd.
             Qenos Pty.   Botany,
AUSTRALIA                                     250,000                    2010        80                       20
             Ltd.         NSW

AUSTRIA      OMV AG       Schwechat           500,000                    2010        15           23          62

             Azerichimi
AZERBAIJAN                Sumgait              30,000                    2010
             a
             Azerichimi
AZERBAIJAN                Sumgait             300,000                    2010
             a
             Production
                          Novopolots
BELARUS      Associatio                        73,000                    2010
                          k
             n Polymir
             Production
                          Novopolots
BELARUS      Associatio                       120,000                    2010
                          k
             n Polymir
             BASF
BELGIUM      Antwerpen    Antwerp         1,080,000                      2010                5                95
             NV
             Benelux
BELGIUM                   Antwerp             255,000                    2010        16    16     18          50
             FAO
             Benelux
BELGIUM                   Antwerp             610,000                    2010        16    16     18          50
             FAO
             Benelux
BELGIUM                   Antwerp             550,000                    2010        16    16     18          50
             FAO


                                         24                                                        Edelweiss Securities Limited
Sector Update
Country    Company      Location       Capacity,     Capacity,   Year of                 Feedstock Slate (%)
                                       tonnes/       tonnes/     Completion
                                       year 2010     year        (Existing        C2    C3    C4   Naphtha      Gasoil    Other
                                       Existing      New         capacity=2010)
           Braskem      Camacari,
BRAZIL                                     600,000                    2010          5                     95
           SA           Bahia
           Braskem      Camacari,
BRAZIL                                     680,000                    2010                               100
           SA           Bahia

BRAZIL     Copesul      Triunfo, RS        700,000                    2010                               100


BRAZIL     Copesul      Triunfo, RS        500,000                    2010                               100

           Petroquimi   Santo
BRAZIL     ca Uniao     Andre, Sao         700,000                    2010                               100
           SA           Paulo
           Rio          Duque de
BRAZIL                                     520,000                    2010                               100
           Polimeros    Caxias
           Lukoil
           Neftochim
BULGARIA                Bourgas            250,000                    2010        3.4         10        86.6
           Bourgas
           JSC
           Lukoil
           Neftochim
BULGARIA                Bourgas            150,000                    2010                               100
           Bourgas
           JSC
           Dow          Fort
CANADA     Chemical     Saskatchew     1,100,000                      2010        100
           Co.          an, Alberta
           Imperial
           Oil          Sarnia,
CANADA                                     300,000                    2010        33    33    34
           Products &   Ontario
           Chemicals
           Nova
                        Corunna,
CANADA     Chemicals                       839,002                    2010        10    15    30          40         5
                        Ontario
           Corp.
           Nova         Joffre,
CANADA     Chemicals    Alberta            725,624                    2010        100
           Corp.        (E1)
           Nova         Joffre,
CANADA     Chemicals    Alberta            816,327                    2010        100
           Corp.        (E2)
           Nova         Joffre,
CANADA     Chemicals    Alberta        1,269,841                      2010        100
           Corp.        (E3)
                        Varennes,
CANADA     Petromont                                   295,000        2010              10    25          50       15
                        Quebec

CHILE      Petrox SA    Concepcion          60,000                    2010          8         16          76

           BASF-YPC
CHINA                   Nanjing            600,000                    2010                               100
           Co. Ltd.
           China
           National     Daya Bay,
CHINA                                      800,000                    2010                               100
           Offshore     Guangdong
           Oil Co.




                                      25                                                       Edelweiss Securities Limited
Oil and Gas

Country     Company      Location     Capacity,     Capacity,   Year of                 Feedstock Slate (%)
                                      tonnes/       tonnes/     Completion
                                      year 2010     year        (Existing        C2    C3    C4    Naphtha     Gasoil    Other
                                      Existing      New         capacity=2010)
            China
            National
CHINA                    Dushanzi         140,000                    2010                               100
            Offshore
            Oil Co.
            China
            Petrochem
CHINA       ical         Daqing           320,000                    2010                               100
            Industrial
            Corp.
            Dalian
CHINA       Petrochem    Dalian             4,000                    2010                               100
            ical Co.
            Fujian
            Petrochem
CHINA                    Quanzhou         800,000                    2010                               100
            ical Co.
            Ltd.
            Fushun
            Petrochem
CHINA                    Fushun           115,000                    2010                               100
            ical
            Complex
            Fushun
            Petrochem
CHINA                    Fushun                       685,000        2011                               100
            ical
            Complex
            Gaoqiao
CHINA       Petrochem    Gaoqiao           14,000                    2010                               100
            ical Co.
            Guangzhou
CHINA       Petrochem    Guangzhou        150,000                    2010                               100
            ical Co.
            Jilin
            Chemical
CHINA                    Jilin            700,000                    2010                               100
            Industrial
            Co. Ltd.
            Lanzhou
            Chemical
CHINA                    Lanzhou          600,000                    2010                               100
            Industrial
            Co.
            Lanzhou
            Chemical
CHINA                    Lanzhou                      320,000        2011                               100
            Industrial
            Co.
            Norinco/Zh
CHINA                    Panjin           450,000                    2010        100
            enhua
            Panjin
            Ethylene
CHINA                    Panjin           130,000                    2010        100
            Industry
            Corp.

CHINA       Petrochina   Dushanzi     1,000,000                      2010                               100

                         Caojing,
CHINA       Sinopec                       145,000                    2010                    30          70
                         Shanghai
                         Caojing,
CHINA       Sinopec                       700,000                    2010                    60          40
                         Shanghai

                                     26                                                       Edelweiss Securities Limited
Sector Update
Country   Company      Location       Capacity,     Capacity,   Year of                  Feedstock Slate (%)
                                      tonnes/       tonnes/     Completion
                                      year 2010     year        (Existing        C2    C3     C4    Naphtha     Gasoil    Other
                                      Existing      New         capacity=2010)

CHINA     Sinopec      Shanghai                       605,000        2014                     60          40

                       Maoming,
CHINA     Sinopec                     1,000,000                      2010                    100
                       Guangdong

CHINA     Sinopec      Neijing            650,000                    2010                     60          40

                       Puyang,
CHINA     Sinopec                         180,000                    2010                    100
                       Henan

CHINA     Sinopec      Qilu               720,000                    2010                     80          20


CHINA     Sinopec      Tianjin            200,000                    2010                    100


CHINA     Sinopec      Tianjin        1,000,000                      2010                                100

                       Wuhan,
CHINA     Sinopec                                     800,000        2013                                100
                       Hubei

CHINA     Sinopec      Zhenhai        1,000,000                      2010                                100

          PetroChina
          Sichuan      Chengdu,
CHINA     Petrochem    Quanzhou                       800,000        2011                                100
          ical         City
          Co. Ltd
          BASF-YPC
CHINA                  Nanjing            150,000                    2010                                100
          Co. Ltd.
          Daqing
          Petroleum
                       Heilongjian
CHINA     &                                           600,000        2012                                100
                       g Province
          Chemical
          Co.
          Shenhua
                       Baotou,
          Baotou
CHINA                  Inner              300,000                    2010                                                     100
          Coal
                       Mongolia
          Chemical
          Chinese
                       Kaohsiung
TAIWAN    Petroleum                       500,000                    2010        100
                       Linyuan
          Corp.
          Chinese
TAIWAN    Petroleum    Linyuan            230,000                    2010        100
          Corp.
          Chinese
TAIWAN    Petroleum    Linyuan            380,000                    2010        100
          Corp.
          Formosa
TAIWAN    Petrochem    Mailiao            700,000                    2010              7.3              92.7
          ical Corp.
          Formosa
TAIWAN    Petrochem    Mailiao        1,035,000                      2010              6.6    0.3       93.1
          ical Corp.
          Formosa
TAIWAN                 Mailiao        1,200,000                      2010                      9          91
          Petrochem



                                     27                                                        Edelweiss Securities Limited
Oil and Gas

Country          Company        Location       Capacity,     Capacity,   Year of                  Feedstock Slate (%)
                                               tonnes/       tonnes/     Completion
                                               year 2010     year        (Existing        C2    C3     C4    Naphtha     Gasoil    Other
                                               Existing      New         capacity=2010)
                 ical Corp.


                 CPC Corp.      Kaohsiung,
TAIWAN                                                         600,000        2013                                100
                 Taiwan         Linyuan
                 Empresa
                 Colombian      Barrancabe
COLOMBIA                                           100,000                    2010        80    20
                 a de           rmeja
                 Petroleos

CROATIA          Polimeri       Zagreb              90,000                    2010        100


CZECH REPUBLIC   Unipetrol      Litvinov           544,000                    2010               2      6          56         1        35

                 Sidi Kerir
EGYPT            Petrochem      Alexandria         300,000                    2010        100
                 icals Co.
                 Borealis
FINLAND                         Porvoo             390,000                    2010                                100
                 OY

FRANCE           A. P. Feyzin   Feyzin             250,000                    2010                                100

                                Notre
                 ExxonMobi      Dame de
FRANCE                                             400,000                    2010                                100
                 l Corp.        Gravencho
                                n
                 Naphthach
FRANCE                          Lavera             740,000                    2010                     50          50
                 imie
                 Polimeri
FRANCE           Europa         Dunkerque          430,000                    2010        0.5   3.5    20          76
                 France SAS
                 Societe du
                 Craqueur
                                Berre
FRANCE           de L’                             450,000                    2010                     12          75        13
                                l’Etang
                 Aubette
                 SCA
                 Total          Carling-St.
FRANCE           Petrochem      Avold-             320,000                    2010                                100
                 icals          Marienau
                 Total
                                Gonfreville
FRANCE           Petrochem                         520,000                    2010                                100
                                l’Orcher
                 icals
                 Basell
GERMANY          Polyfine       Wesseling          738,000                    2010                     10          90
                 GMBH
                 Basell
GERMANY          Polyfine       Wesseling          305,000                    2010                                          100
                 GMBH
                                Ludwigshaf
GERMANY          BASF AG                           620,000                    2010               5      5          90
                                en
                 BP
                                Gelsenkirch
GERMANY          Gelsenkirc                        580,000                    2010               2      8          78        12
                                en
                 hen
                 BP
                                Gelsenkirch
GERMANY          Gelsenkirc                        480,000                    2010                      9          65        26
                                en
                 hen

                                              28                                                        Edelweiss Securities Limited
Sector Update
Country   Company       Location       Capacity,     Capacity,   Year of                    Feedstock Slate (%)
                                       tonnes/       tonnes/     Completion
                                       year 2010     year        (Existing         C2     C3     C4   Naphtha      Gasoil    Other
                                       Existing      New         capacity=2010)

GERMANY   INEOS         Dormagen           550,000                    2010                                  100


GERMANY   INEOS         Dormagen           544,000                    2010                                  100

          LyondellBa    Munchsmu
GERMANY                                    400,000                    2010         13     17     17          53
          sell          nster
          Dow
GERMANY   Chemical      Bohlen             560,000                    2010                                  100
          Co.
          OMV
                        Burghause
GERMANY   Deutschlan                       450,000                    2010         2.5     6      6          84       1.5
                        n, Bavaria
          d GMBH
          Shell &
GERMANY   DEA Oil       Heide              110,000                    2010                                  100
          GMBH
          Shell &
GERMANY   DEA Oil       Wesseling          500,000                    2010                                  100
          GMBH
          EKO
                        Thessalonik
GREECE    Chemicals                         20,000                    2010                                   65                  35
                        i
          Co. AE
          Tiszai
          Vegyi         Tiszaujvaro
HUNGARY                                    370,000                    2010                 1      4          90         5
          Kombinat      s
          Ltd.
          Tiszai
          Vegyi         Tiszaujvaro
HUNGARY                                    290,000                    2010                 7     16          75         2
          Kombinat      s
          Ltd.
          Gas
          Authority     Pata, Uttar
INDIA                                      300,000                    2010         33     33     34
          of India      Pradesh
          Ltd.
          Haldia        Haldia,
INDIA     Petrochem     West               670,000                    2010                                  100
          icals Ltd.    Bengal
          Indian Oil    Haryana,
INDIA                                      800,000                    2010                                  100
          Corp. Ltd.    New Delhi
          Indian
          Petrochem     Baroda,
INDIA                                      156,000                    2010                                  100
          icals Corp.   Gujarat
          Ltd.
          Indian
          Petrochem     Gandhar,
INDIA                                      400,000                    2010        42.5   57.5
          icals Corp.   Gujarat
          Ltd.
          Indian
                        Nagothane,
          Petrochem
INDIA                   Maharashtr         400,000                    2010        42.5   57.5
          icals Corp.
                        a
          Ltd.
          National      Thane,
INDIA                                       75,000                    2010                                  100
          Organic       Maharashtr




                                      29                                                          Edelweiss Securities Limited
Oil and Gas

Country     Company        Location      Capacity,     Capacity,   Year of                 Feedstock Slate (%)
                                         tonnes/       tonnes/     Completion
                                         year 2010     year        (Existing        C2    C3    C4    Naphtha     Gasoil    Other
                                         Existing      New         capacity=2010)
            Chemical       a
            Industries
            Ltd.
            Reliance
                           Hazira,
INDIA       Industries                       840,000                    2010                               100
                           Gujarat
            Ltd.
            Brahmaput
            ra Cracker
                           Lepetkata,
INDIA       and                                          280,000        2013        33    33    34
                           Assam
            Polymer
            Ltd.
            ONGC
            Petro-         Dahej,
INDIA                                                  1,100,000        2013        50    50
            additions      Gujarat
            Ltd. (OPAL)
            PT
                           Cilegon,
INDONESIA   Chandra                          600,000                    2010                               100
                           West Java
            Asri
            Amir Kabir
IRAN        Petrochem      Amir Kabir        520,000                    2010        24     4    12          58         2
            ical Co.
            Arak
IRAN        Petrochem      Arak              247,000                    2010                               100
            ical
            Arya Sasol
                           Assaluyeh
IRAN        Polymer                      1,000,000                      2010        100
                           Bushehr
            Co.
            Bandar
            Imam           Bandar
IRAN                                         550,000                    2010        20     3    10                    67
            Petrochem      Imam
            ical Co.
            Jam
                           Assaluyeh
IRAN        Petrochem                    1,320,000                      2010        100
                           Bushehr
            ical Co.
            Marun
                           Bandar
IRAN        Petrochem                    1,100,000                      2010        100
                           Assaluyeh
            ical Co.
            Tabriz
IRAN        Petrochem      Tabriz            136,000                    2010          4    8     8          80
            ical Co.
            Carmel
ISRAEL                     Haifa             240,000                    2010              10    10          80
            Olefins Ltd.
            Polimeri
ITALY                      Brindisi          440,000                    2010                               100
            Europa
            Polimeri
ITALY                      Gela              245,000                    2010        25     5                70
            Europa
            Polimeri       Porto
ITALY                                        490,000                    2010                               100
            Europa         Marghera
            Polimeri
ITALY                      Priolo            745,000                    2010          2          1          65        32
            Europa
                           Porto
ITALY       Syndial                          250,000                    2010                                70        30
                           Torres
            Asahikasei     Kurasiki,
JAPAN                                        500,000                    2010                               100
            Chemicals      Okayama
                                        30                                                       Edelweiss Securities Limited
Sector Update
Country      Company        Location       Capacity,     Capacity,   Year of                 Feedstock Slate (%)
                                           tonnes/       tonnes/     Completion
                                           year 2010     year        (Existing        C2    C3    C4   Naphtha      Gasoil    Other
                                           Existing      New         capacity=2010)
             Corp.


             Idemitsu
             Petrochem
JAPAN                       Chiba              374,000                    2010                     2          98
             ical Co.
             Ltd.
             Idemitsu
             Petrochem
JAPAN                       Tokuyama           623,000                    2010                               100
             ical Co.
             Ltd.
             Keiyo          Ichihara,
JAPAN                                          740,000                    2010                               100
             Ethylene       Chiba
             Maruzen
JAPAN        Petrochem      Chiba              520,000                    2010                               100
             icals
             Mitsubishi
                            Kashima
JAPAN        Chemical                          375,000                    2010              10    20          55                  15
                            (Unit 1)
             Corp.
             Mitsubishi
                            Kashima
JAPAN        Chemical                          453,000                    2010              10    20          55                  15
                            (Unit 2)
             Corp.
             Mitsubishi
JAPAN        Chemical       Mizushima          500,000                    2010               5     5          80                  10
             Corp.
             Mitsui
                            Ichihara,
JAPAN        Chemicals                         617,000                    2010                    10          90
                            Chiba
             Inc.
             Mitsui
                            Takaishi
JAPAN        Chemicals                         450,000                    2010                               100
                            City, Osaka
             Inc.
             Nippon
JAPAN        Petrochem      Kawasaki           460,000                    2010                               100
             ical
             Showa
JAPAN                       Oita               675,000                    2010                               100
             Denko KK
             Sanyo
JAPAN        Petrochem      Mizushima          500,000                    2010                               100
             ical Co. Ltd
             Sumitomo
JAPAN        Chemical       Chiba              415,000                    2010                               100
             Co. Ltd.
             Tonen
JAPAN        Chemical       Kawasaki           515,000                    2010                               100
             Corp.
             Tosoh
JAPAN                       Yokkaichi          527,000                    2010                               100
             Corp.

KAZAKHSTAN   Akpo           Aktau              100,000                    2010

             Governme
KAZAKHSTAN                  Atyrau              30,000                    2010
             nt
             Equate
KUWAIT                      Shuaiba            850,000                    2010        100
             Petrochem



                                          31                                                       Edelweiss Securities Limited
Oil and Gas

Country       Company       Location       Capacity,     Capacity,   Year of                 Feedstock Slate (%)
                                           tonnes/       tonnes/     Completion
                                           year 2010     year        (Existing        C2    C3    C4    Naphtha     Gasoil    Other
                                           Existing      New         capacity=2010)
              ical Co.
              (Equate II)
              National
LIBYA                       Ras Lanuf          350,000                    2010                               100
              Oil Co.
              Ethylene
MALAYSIA      Malaysia      Kertih             400,000                    2010        100
              Sdn. Bhd.
              Optimal
MALAYSIA      Olefins       Kertih             600,000                    2010        100
              Sdn. Bhd.
              Titan
                            Pasir
              Petrochem
MALAYSIA                    Gudang,            442,000                    2010              10    10          80
              icals Sdn.
                            Johor
              Bhd.
              Titan
                            Pasir
              Petrochem
MALAYSIA                    Gudang,            667,000                    2010              10    10          80
              icals Sdn.
                            Johor
              Bhd.
                            La
              Petroleos
MEXICO                      Cangrejera,        600,000                    2010        100
              Mexicanos
                            Veracruz
              Petroleos     Morelos,
MEXICO                                         600,000                    2010        100
              Mexicanos     Veracruz
              Petroleos     Pajaritos,
MEXICO                                         184,000                    2010        100
              Mexicanos     Veracruz
              Dow
                            Terneuzen
NETHERLANDS   Chemical                         580,000                    2010              15                85
                            (No. 1)
              Co.
              Dow
                            Terneuzen
NETHERLANDS   Chemical                         585,000                    2010              15                85
                            (No. 2)
              Co.
              Dow
                            Terneuzen
NETHERLANDS   Chemical                         635,000                    2010                               100
                            (No. 3)
              Co.
              SABIC         Geleen
NETHERLANDS                                    595,000                    2010                               100
              Europe        (No. 3)
              SABIC         Geleen
NETHERLANDS                                    670,000                    2010                               100
              Europe        (No. 4)
              Shell
NETHERLANDS   Nederland     Moerdijk           900,000                    2010                               100
              Chemie BV
              Eleme
              Petrochem     Eleme
NIGERIA                                        550,000                    2010        33    33    34
              ical Co.      River
              Ltd.
              Namhung
                            Anju, South
              Youth
NORTH KOREA                 P’yong’an           60,000                    2010
              Chemical
                            Province
              Complex
                            Rafnes,
NORWAY        Noretyl AS                       550,000                    2010        30    45    25
                            Bamble
              PKN Orlen
POLAND                      Plock              700,000                    2010               5     5          90
              SA

                                          32                                                       Edelweiss Securities Limited
Sector Update
Country        Company       Location      Capacity,     Capacity,   Year of                   Feedstock Slate (%)
                                           tonnes/       tonnes/     Completion
                                           year 2010     year        (Existing         C2    C3     C4    Naphtha     Gasoil    Other
                                           Existing      New         capacity=2010)
               Repsol YPF
PORTUGAL                     Sines             570,000                    2010                                 100
               SA
               Qatar
QATAR          Petrochem     Mesaieed          720,000                    2010        100
               ical Co.

QATAR          Q-Chem I      Mesaieed          500,000                    2010         80    20

               Ras Laffan
QATAR                        Ras Laffan    1,300,000                      2010         80    20
               Olefins Co.

ROMANIA        Petrom SA     Pitesti           170,000                    2010        19.5   8.5   23.7       48.4

               Petromidia
ROMANIA                      Navodari          200,000                    2010                                 100
               SA
               Angarsknef    Angarsk,
RUSSIA                                          60,000                    2010                      5.2       89.2       5.6
               torgsintez    Siberia
               Angarsknef    Angarsk,
RUSSIA                                         240,000                    2010                      5.2       89.2       5.6
               torgsintez    Siberia
               Nizhnekam
                             Nizhnekam
RUSSIA         skneftekhi                      600,000                    2010
                             sk
               m

RUSSIA         Norsy         Norsy             300,000                    2010                     100

               Omskykau      Omsk,
RUSSIA                                          90,000                    2010
               chuyk         Siberia

RUSSIA         Orgsintez     Kazan             445,000                    2010        100


RUSSIA         Oxosyntez     Orsk               45,000                    2010

                             Novopolots
RUSSIA         Polimir                         150,000                    2010                     100
                             k
               Salavatneft
RUSSIA                       Salavat           300,000                    2010
               orgsintez
               Sibur
RUSSIA                       Perm               30,000                    2010
               Himprom
               Sibur-        Nizhny
RUSSIA                                         300,000                    2010                      20          80
               Neftechim     Novgorod
               Sintezkauc
RUSSIA                       Samara            300,000                    2010
               huk
               Stavrapolp
RUSSIA                       Prikumsk          350,000                    2010
               olymer

RUSSIA         Tomsk PCC     Tomsk             300,000                    2010

               Uraorgsint
RUSSIA                       Ufa               235,000                    2010
               es
               Al Jubail
SAUDI ARABIA   Petrochem     Jubail            800,000                    2010         50    50
               ical Co.
               Arabian
SAUDI ARABIA                 Jubail            800,000                    2010                                 100
               Petrochem



                                          33                                                         Edelweiss Securities Limited
Oil and Gas

Country        Company       Location      Capacity,     Capacity,   Year of                 Feedstock Slate (%)
                                           tonnes/       tonnes/     Completion
                                           year 2010     year        (Existing        C2    C3    C4    Naphtha     Gasoil    Other
                                           Existing      New         capacity=2010)
               ical Co.


               Arabian
SAUDI ARABIA   Petrochem     Jubail            800,000                    2010        50    50
               ical Co.
               Arabian
SAUDI ARABIA   Petrochem     Jubail            650,000                    2010        100
               ical Co.
               Chevron
               Phillips
SAUDI ARABIA                 Jubail            300,000                    2010                                50        50
               Chemical
               Co. LP
               Eastern
SAUDI ARABIA   Petrochem     Jubail        1,300,000                      2010        50    50
               ical Co.
               Jubail
               United
SAUDI ARABIA                 Jubail        1,450,000                      2010        50    50
               Petrochem
               ical Co.
               Saudi Basic
SAUDI ARABIA   Industries    Yanbu         1,380,000                      2010        50    50
               Corp.
               Saudi
SAUDI ARABIA   Petrochem     Jubail        1,350,000                      2010        100
               ical Co.

SAUDI ARABIA   Tasnee        Jubail        1,000,000                      2010        25    25    25          25

               Yanbu
SAUDI ARABIA   Petrochem     Yanbu             875,000                    2010        100
               ical Co.
               Yanbu
SAUDI ARABIA   Petrochem     Yanbu             830,000                    2010        16    16    18          50
               ical Co.
               Saudi
SAUDI ARABIA                 Al-Jubail                   1,200,000        2011
               Polymers
SERBIA AND     Chemi
                             Pancevo           200,000                    2010
MONTENEGRO     Industria
               ExxonMobi
                             Jurong
SINGAPORE      l Chemical                      900,000                    2010                                33        33        34
                             Island
               Co.
               Petrochem
               ical Corp.
                             Pulau Ayer
SINGAPORE      of                              465,000                    2010                               100
                             Merbau
               Singapore
               Pte. Ltd.
               Petrochem
               ical Corp.
                             Pulau Ayer
SINGAPORE      of                              615,000                    2010                               100
                             Merbau
               Singapore
               Pte. Ltd.
               Shell
               Eastern       Bukom
SINGAPORE                                      800,000                    2010                               100
               Petroleum     Island
               Ltd.

                                          34                                                       Edelweiss Securities Limited
Sector Update
Country        Company       Location       Capacity,     Capacity,   Year of                Feedstock Slate (%)
                                            tonnes/       tonnes/     Completion
                                            year 2010     year        (Existing        C2   C3    C4   Naphtha      Gasoil    Other
                                            Existing      New         capacity=2010)
               ExxonMobi
                             Jurong
SINGAPORE      l Chemical                                 1,000,000        2013                              100
                             Island
               Corp.
               Slovnaft
SLOVAKIA       Petrochem     Bratislava         210,000                    2010         8   11    26          55
               icals
               Sasol
SOUTH AFRICA                 Sasolburg          110,000                    2010        80   20
               Polymers
               Sasol
SOUTH AFRICA                 Secunda            475,000                    2010        75    5                20
               Polymers
               Honam
SOUTH KOREA    Petrochem     Yeochun            750,000                    2010                              100
               ical
               Korea
               Petrochem
SOUTH KOREA    ical          Ulsan              470,000                    2010                              100
               Industries
               Co. Ltd.
               LG Daesan
SOUTH KOREA    Petrochem     Daesan             760,000                    2010                              100
               ical
               LG
               Petrochem
SOUTH KOREA                  Yeosu City         900,000                    2010                              100
               ical Co.
               Ltd.
               Lotte
               Daesan
SOUTH KOREA                  Daesan             650,000                    2010                              100
               Petrochem
               ical
               Samsung
SOUTH KOREA    General       Daesan             850,000                    2010                              100
               Chemicals

SOUTH KOREA    SK Corp.      Ulsan              545,000                    2010                              100


SOUTH KOREA    SK Corp.      Ulsan              185,000                    2010                              100


SOUTH KOREA    Yeochon       Yeochun            857,000                    2010                              100


SOUTH KOREA    Yeochon       Yeochun            555,000                    2010                              100


SOUTH KOREA    Yeochon       Yeochun            400,000                    2010                              100

               Dow
SPAIN          Chemical      Tarragona          660,000                    2010                              100
               Co.
               Repsol YPF
SPAIN                        Puertollano        250,000                    2010                                                   100
               SA
               Repsol YPF
SPAIN                        Tarragona          660,000                    2010                              100
               SA
                             Stenungsun
SWEDEN         Borealis AB                      625,000                    2010        40   20                40
                             d



                                           35                                                      Edelweiss Securities Limited
Oil and Gas

Country       Company        Location      Capacity,     Capacity,   Year of                 Feedstock Slate (%)
                                           tonnes/       tonnes/     Completion
                                           year 2010     year        (Existing        C2    C3    C4    Naphtha     Gasoil    Other
                                           Existing      New         capacity=2010)

SWITZERLAND   Lonza Ltd.     Visp               33,000                    2010              30    60          10

              Map Ta         Map Ta
THAILAND      Phut           Phut,             900,000                    2010        100
              Olefins Co.    Rayong
                             Map Ta
              PTT
THAILAND                     Phut,             400,000                    2010        80     6                                    14
              Chemical
                             Rayong
                             Map Ta
              PTT
THAILAND                     Phut,             515,000                    2010          5   18    28          49
              Chemical
                             Rayong
                             Map Ta
              PTT
THAILAND                     Phut,             461,000                    2010        100
              Chemical
                             Rayong
                             Map Ta
              PTT
THAILAND                     Phut,         1,000,000                      2010        100
              Chemical
                             Rayong
                             Map Ta
              Rayong
THAILAND                     Phut,             800,000                    2010                               100
              Olefins Ltd.
                             Rayong
              PTT
                             Map Ta
THAILAND      Polyethyle                   1,000,000                      2010        100
                             Phut
              ne Co. Ltd.
              Petkim
              Petrochem
                             Aliaga,
TURKEY        icals                            520,000                    2010                               100
                             Izmir
              Holding
              Co.

UKRAINE       Chlorvinyl     Kalush            250,000                    2010                                         100


UKRAINE       Oriana                           180,000                    2010


UKRAINE       TNK-BP         Lisichansk        300,000                    2010                               100

              Borouge
UNITED ARAB   Abu Dhabi      Ruwais,
                                           2,100,000                      2010        100
EMIRATES      Polymers       Abu Dhabi
              Co. Ltd.
              Abu Dhabi
UNITED ARAB   Polymers       Ruwais,
                                                         1,500,000        2013        100
EMIRATES      Co. Ltd.       Abu Dhabi
              (Borouge)
UNITED                       Grangemo
              INEOS                            730,000                    2010                               100
KINGDOM                      uth
UNITED                       Grangemo
              INEOS                            340,000                    2010                               100
KINGDOM                      uth
              ExxonMobi
UNITED
              l Chemical     Fawley            120,000                    2010          9    8     8          25        25        25
KINGDOM
              Co.
              ExxonMobi
UNITED                       Mossmorra
              l Chemical                       830,000                    2010        100
KINGDOM                      n Fife
              Co.
UNITED        SABIC
                             Wilton            865,000                    2010              20    10          70
KINGDOM       Europe
                                          36                                                       Edelweiss Securities Limited
Sector Update
Country         Company     Location       Capacity,     Capacity,   Year of                 Feedstock Slate (%)
                                           tonnes/       tonnes/     Completion
                                           year 2010     year        (Existing        C2    C3    C4   Naphtha      Gasoil    Other
                                           Existing      New         capacity=2010)
                BASF Fina
UNITED STATES   Petrochem   Port Arthur        907,000                    2010                               100
                icals
                Chevron
                Phillips    Cedar
UNITED STATES                                  803,000                    2010        30    20    25          25
                Chemical    Bayou
                Co. LP
                Chevron
                Phillips
UNITED STATES               Port Arthur        861,000                    2010        70    25     5
                Chemical
                Co. LP
                Chevron
                Phillips
UNITED STATES               Sweeny             907,000                    2010        38    37    25
                Chemical
                Co. LP
                Chevron
                Phillips
UNITED STATES               Sweeny             676,000                    2010        75    25
                Chemical
                Co. LP
                Chevron
                Phillips
UNITED STATES               Sweeny             295,000                    2010        85    15
                Chemical
                Co. LP
                Dow
                            Freeport
UNITED STATES   Chemical                       633,000                    2010        50    50
                            (LHC 7)
                Co.
                Dow
                            Freeport
UNITED STATES   Chemical                   1,024,000                      2010        10    20                70
                            (LHC 8)
                Co.
                Dow
                            Plaquemin
UNITED STATES   Chemical                       522,000                    2010        75    25
                            e (LHC 2)
                Co.
                Dow
                            Plaquemin
UNITED STATES   Chemical                       740,000                    2010              70    10          20
                            e (LHC 3)
                Co.
                Dow
UNITED STATES   Chemical    Taft 1             612,000                    2010        20    40                40
                Co.

UNITED STATES   DuPont      Orange             681,000                    2010        100

                Eastman
UNITED STATES   Chemical    Longview           140,000                    2010        25    67     7           1
                Co.
                Eastman
UNITED STATES   Chemical    Longview           140,000                    2010        25    67     7           1
                Co.
                Eastman
UNITED STATES   Chemical    Longview           140,000                    2010        25    67     7           1
                Co.
                Eastman
UNITED STATES   Chemical    Longview           360,000                    2010        25    67     7           1
                Co.




                                          37                                                       Edelweiss Securities Limited
Petrochemicals   ethylene
Petrochemicals   ethylene
Petrochemicals   ethylene
Petrochemicals   ethylene

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Petrochemicals ethylene

  • 1. SECTOR UPDATE OIL AND GAS Ethylene Global Demand-Supply Scenario India Equity Research | Oil, Gas and Services Global demand for ethylene to grow at a healthy rate of 4.8% CAGR over 2010-15, compared to a growth rate of 1.5% over the last 5 years. In spite of healthy demand, there is likely to be an oversupply situation during 2010-11 due largely to huge capacity addition in the Middle East and China – leading to decreased ethylene prices and margins. The situation is expected to improve after 2011 due to limited capacity addition. Global capacity utilization decreased to around 80% during 2010, but is expected to increase substantially till 2015 to reach a high of 95%. Global ethylene oversupply scenario not as bad Though there is concern that the new capacities coming up in the Middle East and China are going to flood the world market, depressing ethylene prices and margins, we believe that most of the scheduled projects, amounting to 10 mtpa (million tonnes per annum), have already come online by 2010. Only marginal new capacity of 9 mtpa is expected to come online till 2015. Large projects totaling 12 mtpa, which are delayed because of a number of reasons, such as, feedstock availability, impact of financial crisis, regulatory approval and environmental impact, are not expected to come online anytime soon. Healthy demand growth led by polymer demand in China and India Demand for ethylene is expected to grow at a healthy rate of 4.8% CAGR between 2011-15 driven by strong polyethylene (PE) demand from developing economies in Asia. PE demand per capita in India is very low at 2kg against a world average of 10.3 kg. We expect the PE demand per capita in developing countries like China and India to grow in line with their high GDP growth rate, consuming the added capacity. Asian crackers have bi-product netback; Middle East (ME) crackers short of feedstock Most of the crackers that are coming up in China are Naphtha based. Though Naphtha costs more than Ethane, it gives 17x more bi-product netback than ethane based crackers. On the other hand, large projects planned in the Middle East are delayed or cancelled because of concerns of natural gas availability – thus tightening ethylene supply situation. The two factors together are expected to contribute positively to cracker operators’ bottom lines. Ethylene margins to grow in line with higher capacity utilization We expect that the utilization rates of the crackers will reach a trough in 2010-11, and then the demand scenario will tighten till 2015 – primarily driven by healthy demand growth in line with rebound in global economy and less capacity addition. This will drive Alin Dev better margin for the cracker operators. +1-617-504-3157 alin.dev@edelcap.com August 29, 2011 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com, Edelweiss Securities Limited 1 Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset.
  • 2. Oil and Gas 2 Edelweiss Securities Limited
  • 3. Sector Update Contents Ethylene Supply.................................................................................................................................................................. 5 Middle East: ................................................................................................................................................................... 6 Asia: ............................................................................................................................................................................... 7 US and Europe: .............................................................................................................................................................. 7 Ethylene Demand ............................................................................................................................................................... 8 Ethylene Economics ........................................................................................................................................................... 9 Feedstock Slate: ........................................................................................................................................................... 10 Ethylene Margin & Utilization Rate .................................................................................................................................. 12 APPENDIX – I .................................................................................................................................................................... 14 What is Ethylene? ........................................................................................................................................................ 14 Ethylene Value Chain ................................................................................................................................................... 14 Feedstocks ............................................................................................................................................................... 15 Intermediates .......................................................................................................................................................... 15 Derivatives ............................................................................................................................................................... 16 APPENDIX – II ................................................................................................................................................................... 19 How is Ethylene Produced? ......................................................................................................................................... 19 APPENDIX – III .................................................................................................................................................................. 21 Middle East Feedstock concerns: ................................................................................................................................. 21 Saudi Arabia: ........................................................................................................................................................... 22 Iran: ......................................................................................................................................................................... 23 Qatar: ...................................................................................................................................................................... 23 APPENDIX – IV .................................................................................................................................................................. 24 Existing and expected cracker capacities all over the world ........................................................................................ 24 APPENDIX – V ................................................................................................................................................................... 40 Sensitivity Analysis ....................................................................................................................................................... 40 3 Edelweiss Securities Limited
  • 4. Oil and Gas 4 Edelweiss Securities Limited
  • 5. Sector Update Ethylene Supply Global ethylene capacity has dramatically increased between 2005 and 2010 from 115.2 million tonnes per annum to 144 mtpa, growing at a CAGR 4.6%. During the same period China has added 14.2 mtpa of ethylene cracker capacity, while Middle Eastern Chart 1: World ethylene capacity has grown at CAGR 3% from 2004-15 countries have nearly doubled their capacity to 23.6 mtpa. At the same time, during 2006-10 the cumulative capacity share of Western Europe and North America dropped from 53% to 42.5%. Total ethylene capacity is expected to continue increasing, though at a subdued rate, till 2015 when the capacity will reach 152.7 mtpa representing a CAGR of 1.2% from 2010-15 with Asia, mainly China, and Middle East, mainly Saudi Arabia adding major portion of the new capacity. Source: Oil & Gas Journal, Edelweiss research We believe that most of the scheduled projects, amounting to 10 mtpa, have already come online by 2010. Only marginal new capacity of 9 mtpa is expected to come online till 2015. Large projects totaling 12 mtpa, which are delayed because of a number of reasons, such as, feedstock availability, impact of financial crisis, regulatory approval and environmental impact, are not expected to come online anytime soon. 5 Edelweiss Securities Limited
  • 6. Oil and Gas Chart 2: Most of the incremental capacity has already been added by 2010 Source: Oil & Gas Journal, Edelweiss research Middle East: Availability of cheap crude oil and high dependence of the kingdoms on oil revenue have driven the kingdoms and governments to diversify into manufacturing commodity chemicals and capture more value from the commodity nature of crude oil. Middle Eastern countries are also better positioned to transport petrochemicals at a lower cost to developed markets in Europe, as well as high growth markets in Asia. This being a labor intensive industry, the governments are also able to generate meaningful employment for its people by developing the petrochemical industry. To bring about rapid growth in the petrochemicals industry, Middle Eastern countries provide different incentives to investors. Some of the incentives typically provided in Saudi Arabia include:  Subsidized natural gas at $ 0.75 per Mmbtu.  A complex discount system for domestic users with NGLs garnering a 30 percent discount on the export price of naphtha and naphtha itself receiving an 11 percent discount on its export price. Costs therefore fluctuate in line with global oil prices, though Saudi producers using liquids still retain a competitive advantage. 6 Edelweiss Securities Limited
  • 7. Sector Update Asia: Chart 3: Asia & ME will account for 50% of the cracker Capacity growth in Asia has been largely led by capacity large scale projects in China. Chinese state- owned players like Sinopec and PetroChina are rapidly building new ethylene capacity, aided by favorable government policies for joint ventures with foreign majors. But, environmental worries, economically unviable size of scattered petrochemicals plants and the potential threat of overcapacity could delay the commercial start of production. In the long term, China could be a potential competitor to Middle Eastern petrochemicals players as petrochemical imports from the Kingdoms are replaced by local Chinese output. Source: Oil & Gas Journal, Edelweiss research US and Europe: Chart 4: North America – median age of a plant is Chart 5: Western Europe – median age of a plant 32 years is 30 years Source: Edelweiss research Source: Edelweiss research High feedstock costs coupled with stagnant demand have depressed capacity growth in the developed markets. Cheaper imports from ME have forced many economically unviable and older producers to shutdown. 7 Edelweiss Securities Limited
  • 8. Oil and Gas Ethylene Demand Chart 6: Demand for ethylene is highly correlated to GDP and population Demand for ethylene is strongly correlated with both GDP growth rate and growth in population with correlation of 87% and 90% respectively. Source: CMAI Global, IMF, Edelweiss research Chart 7: Ethylene demand per capita is expected to grow at CAGR 4.8% till 2015 Demand per capita for ethylene has historically grown at an average growth rate of 3% Y-o-Y since 2000, barring the past few years of global economic slowdown and a dip in 2005 when most of the PE plants in North America were shut down following hurricane Katrina. We expect the demand to grow at CAGR 4.8% till 2015 to reach 146 mtpa driven by strong demand growth and rapid urbanization in high growth emerging economies of China and India. Source: CMAI Global, IMF, Edelweiss research Chart 8: Ethylene demand – GDP elasticity to be 1.1x Demand for ethylene has historically grown with GDP with an elasticity of 1.06x since 2000, with exceptions in the past couple of years due to the financial crisis and in 2005 due to the rampage of hurricane Katrina. We expect the elasticity to gradually increase to 1.1x in 2015 due to strong demand growth from countries such as China and India driven by rapid urbanization and industrialization. Source: CMAI Global, IMF, Edelweiss research 8 Edelweiss Securities Limited
  • 9. Sector Update Demand for ethylene is expected to Chart 9: Ethylene demand to grow at CAGR 4.8% while little new capacity will come up after 2011 grow at a healthy rate of 4.8% CAGR till 2015, while the capacity is expected to grow at a minimal rate of 1.2% CAGR during the same period with very little capacities expected to come online after 2011. PE demand per capita in developing economies is very low compared to world average of 10.3 kg. We expect the PE demand per capita in developing countries like China and India to grow in line with their high GDP growth rates, consuming the added capacity. Source: CMAI Global, IMF, Edelweiss research Ethylene Economics Due to the commoditized nature of the basic chemicals business, price is the single most important factor in determining the competitiveness of players in the market place as there is only marginal differentiation between the products of different suppliers. Chart 10: ME producers enjoy the lowest cost of production riding on cheap ethane It is not all about who has the biggest plant - the next plant built will be the Biggest Plant; it is also not about who has the best technology - technology has become readily available; it is not even about who traded there first - competitive conditions dictate decisions. It is literally about the cost. With price of ethylene fixed on a cost- plus basis based on the highest cost producer, feedstock cost is the most important factor in determining the ethylene margins across different geography. Source: CMAI Global 9 Edelweiss Securities Limited
  • 10. Oil and Gas Feedstock Slate: Chart 11: Olefins Feedstock vs. Crude Oil Prices Petrochemicals are produced by cracking Naphtha or ethane. Since 2008, the relative price of U.S. ethane (as a percent of crude oil price) has been trending down, due to cheaper U.S. natural gas. This benefits the petrochemical producers using natural gas as feed stock, but there is always a trade off as naphtha unlocks more sophisticated derivatives. Cracking ethane generates a large proportion of ethylene (95%) while cracking naphtha gives better byproduct credit. A typical cracker output is given below: Source: Lyondell Basell Investor Day 2010 Table 1: Cracker output slate Chart 12: Napththa vs ethane cracker margin widens Source: Platts, ICIS pricing, Edelweiss Research Ethane crackers enjoy a higher margin as naphtha prices rallied with crude oil price, while natural gas price remained stable. Middle Eastern countries which provide natural gas at an average subsidized rate of USD 4/mmBtu, enjoys still higher margins though the gap narrowed in the recent years driven by a fall in natural gas prices in the international market. Source: Platts, ICIS pricing, Edelweiss Research 10 Edelweiss Securities Limited
  • 11. Sector Update Chart 13: Regional feedstock slate of steam crackers Feedstock-related costs account for over 50% of the total cash costs of the final output of petrochemical companies. Most of the crackers in Asia and Europe are Naphtha based while those in the Middle East and North America are ethane based. Though Naphtha costs more than Ethane, Naphtha gives 17x more bi-product netback than ethane based crackers. Source: OGJ, Edelweiss Research Chart 14: Propylene-ethylene spread widens Meanwhile, propylene / ethylene price ratio continues to increase as ethylene production from ethane increases driven by higher cracker margin realization and propylene production from steam naphtha crackers declines owing to large ethane cracker capacity addition in the ME. The effect is even more pronounced in the case of butadiene which is used as a substitute for natural rubber. Source: Bloomberg, Edelweiss Research 11 Edelweiss Securities Limited
  • 12. Oil and Gas Ethylene Margin & Utilization Rate Chart 15: Beginning of a new cycle of profitability The cracker industry is cyclical in nature and historically operated in a 7-8 year cycle. We believe that the ROCE cycle of the industry based on replacement cost of a steam cracker will hit trough in 2011, and will see the beginning of new cycle starting 2011-12. Source: CERA Downstream Index, Edelweiss Research Chart 16: Operating rate follows gross margin Historically operating rates of crackers have closely followed ethylene margin as the operators have more incentive to run the plant at a higher operating rate when the margins are higher, and lower the rate when the margins are declining. Source: Edelweiss Research 12 Edelweiss Securities Limited
  • 13. Sector Update Chart 17: Ethylene-Naphtha crack is expected to grow in line with higher operating rate We believe that the gross ethylene margin will start strengthening in line with higher ethylene prices and gradually increase to USD 460 per tonne, along with higher operating rates of the crackers though the crackers will not see high margins of 2004-06 anytime soon partly because of higher crude oil prices. Source: Edelweiss Research Chart 18: Cracker margin is expected to grow along with higher bi-product prices At the same time the net cracker margin realized will gradually strengthen to USD 383 per tonne by the year 2015, riding on higher bi-product netbacks. Source: Edelweiss Research 13 Edelweiss Securities Limited
  • 14. Oil and Gas APPENDIX – I What is Ethylene? Ethylene is the raw material used in the manufacture of polymers such as polyethylene (PE), polyethylene terephthalate (PET), polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and polystyrene (PS) as well as fibers and other organic chemicals. These products are used in a wide variety of industrial and consumer markets such as the packaging, transportation, electrical/electronic, textile and construction industries as well as consumer chemicals, coatings and adhesives. Ethylene is one of the largest-volume petrochemicals. With a diverse range of end-uses, demand for ethylene is sensitive to both economic and energy cycles. It is often seen as a barometer to the performance of the petrochemical industry as whole. According to CMAI, global production and consumption of ethylene in 2010 were both approximately 115m tonnes. Global capacity utilization (demand / capacity) was 83.1% in 2010, down from 88% in 2009. Ethylene consumption is estimated to have increased by 2.1% in 2010; it is forecast to grow an average 4.9% per year up to 2015. Ethylene Value Chain Chart A1-1: Ethylene value chain Source:Edelweiss research 14 Edelweiss Securities Limited
  • 15. Sector Update Feedstocks Ethane: Ethane is isolated on an industrial scale from natural gas, and as a byproduct of petroleum refining. Its chief use is as petrochemical feedstock for ethylene production. Naphtha: Naphtha is obtained in petroleum refineries as one of the intermediate products from the distillation of crude oil. It is a liquid intermediate between the light gases in the crude oil and the heavier liquid kerosene. The generic name 'naphtha' describes a range of different refinery intermediate products used in different applications. Naphtha is used primarily as feedstock for producing high octane gasoline (via the catalytic reforming process). It is also used in the bitumen mining industry as a diluent, the petrochemical industry for producing olefins in steam crackers, and the chemical industry for solvent (cleaning) applications. Intermediates Ethylene Oxide: Because of its special molecular structure, ethylene oxide easily participates in the addition reaction and thus easily polymerizes. Although it is a vital raw material with diverse applications, including the manufacture of products like polyethylene glycol that are often more effective and less toxic than alternative materials, ethylene oxide itself is a very hazardous substance: at room temperature it is a flammable, carcinogenic, mutagenic, irritating, and anesthetic gas with a misleadingly pleasant aroma. Therefore, it is commonly handled and shipped as a refrigerated liquid. The chemical reactivity that is responsible for many of Chart A1-2: Global Ethylene ethylene oxide's hazards has also made it a key industrial Derivatives chemical that supports the living standards of advanced societies. Ethylene oxide (EO) is primarily used to make ethylene glycol. Other EO derivatives include ethyoxylates (for use in shampoo, kitchen cleaners, etc), glycol ethers (solvents, fuels, etc) and ethanol amines (surfactants, personal care products, etc). Ethylene Glycol: Ethylene glycol is an organic compound widely used as automotive antifreeze and a precursor to polymers. Ethylene glycol is produced from ethylene, via the intermediate ethylene oxide. Ethylene oxide reacts with Source:Edelweiss research water to produce ethylene glycol. Most monoethylene glycol (MEG) is used to make polyester fibers for textile applications, PET resins for bottles and polyester film. MEG is also used in antifreeze applications. Ethyl Benzene: This aromatic hydrocarbon is important in the petrochemical industry as an intermediate in the production of styrene, which in turn is used for making polystyrene, a common plastic material. Although often present in small amounts in crude oil, ethylbenzene is produced in bulk quantities by combining benzene and ethylene in an acid-catalyzed chemical reaction. 15 Edelweiss Securities Limited
  • 16. Oil and Gas Styrene: Styrene, also known as vinyl benzene, is a colorless oily liquid that evaporates easily. The presence of the vinyl group allows styrene to polymerize. Commercially significant products include polystyrene, ABS, styrene-butadiene (SBR) rubber, styrene-butadiene latex and other products. Ethylene dichloride: Ethylene dichloride (EDC) is a chlorinated hydrocarbon, mainly used to produce vinyl chloride monomer (VCM), the major precursor for PVC production. Production is primarily achieved through the iron (III) chloride-catalyzed reaction of ethylene and chlorine. Vinyl chloride: VCM is an important industrial chemical chiefly used to produce the polymer polyvinyl chloride (PVC). It can be produced by two methods - hydrochlorination of acetylene and dehydrochlorination of ethylene dichloride. Due to the relatively low cost of ethylene, compared to acetylene, most vinyl chloride has been produced via dehydrochlorination of EDC, despite lower yields (50-60%), lower product purity and higher costs for waste treatment. Derivatives PET: Polyethylene terephthalate is a thermoplastic polymer resin of the polyester family and is used in synthetic fibers; beverage, food and other liquid containers; thermoforming applications; and engineering resins often in combination with glass fiber. The majority of the world's PET production is for synthetic fibers (in excess of 60%) with bottle production accounting for around 30% of global demand. In discussing textile applications, PET is generally referred to as simply "polyester" while "PET" is used most often to refer to packaging applications. The polyester industry makes up about 18% of world polymer production. Polystyrene: PS is an aromatic polymer made from the monomer styrene. Polystyrene is one of the most widely used plastics, the scale being several billion kilograms per year. Solid polystyrene is used, for example, in disposable cutlery, plastic models, CD and DVD cases, and smoke detector housings. Products made from foamed polystyrene are nearly ubiquitous, for example packing materials, insulation, and foam drink cups. Polyethylene: The largest outlet, accounting for 60% of ethylene demand globally, is polyethylene. Polyethylene is a thermoplastic polymer consisting of long chains produced by combing the ingredient monomer ethylene. PE is classified into several different categories based mostly on its density and branching. The mechanical properties of PE depend significantly on variables such as the extent and type of branching, the crystal structure and the molecular weight. With regard to sold volumes, the most important polyethylene grades are HDPE, LLDPE and LDPE. 16 Edelweiss Securities Limited
  • 17. Sector Update HDPE is defined by a density of greater or equal to 0.941 g/cm3. It has a low degree of branching and thus stronger intermolecular forces and tensile strength. HDPE is used in products and packaging such as milk jugs, detergent bottles, margarine tubs, garbage containers and water pipes. One third of all toys are manufactured from HDPE. Source:Edelweiss research LDPE is defined by a density range of 0.910–0.940 g/cm3. It has a high degree of short and long chain branching, which means that the chains do not pack into the crystal structure as well. This results in a lower tensile strength and increased ductility. The high degree of branching with long chains gives molten LDPE unique and desirable flow properties. LDPE is used for both rigid containers and plastic film applications such as plastic bags and film wrap. Source:Edelweiss research 17 Edelweiss Securities Limited
  • 18. Oil and Gas LLDPE is defined by a density range of 0.915–0.925 g/cm3. It is a substantially linear polymer with significant numbers of short branches. LLDPE has higher tensile strength than LDPE and exhibits higher impact and puncture resistance; thus lower thickness (gauge) films can be blown, compared with LDPE, with better environmental stress cracking resistance but is not as easy to process. LLDPE is used in packaging, particularly film for bags and sheets. Lower thickness may be used compared to LDPE for use in cable covering, toys, lids, buckets, containers and pipe. While other applications are available, LLDPE is used predominantly in film applications due to its toughness, flexibility Source:Edelweiss research and relative transparency. Product examples range from agricultural films, saran wrap, and bubble wrap, to multilayer and composite films. PVC: Polyvinyl chloride is a thermoplastic polymer. PVC is the third most widely produced plastic, after polyethylene and polypropylene. It is widely used in construction because it is cheap, durable, and easy to assemble. A number of PVC's properties recommend it for a wide variety of applications. It is biologically and chemically resistant, making it the plastic of choice for most household sewerage pipes and other pipe applications where corrosion would limit the use of metal. With the addition of impact modifiers and stabilizers, it becomes a popular material for window and door frames. By adding plasticizers, it can become flexible enough to be used in cabling applications as a wire insulator. It is also used to make vinyl records. PVC is a controversial material in that during its production, useful life and incineration, especially in accidental and uncontrolled circumstances, it may liberate persistent toxins, which the manufacture, use and destruction of suitable alternative plastics, such as, polypropylene do not. Other ethylene derivatives include alpha olefins which are used in LLDPE production, detergent alcohols and plasticizer alcohols; vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) which is used in adhesives, paints, paper coatings and barrier resins; and industrial ethanol which is used as a solvent or in the manufacture of chemical intermediates such as ethyl acetate and ethylacrylate. 18 Edelweiss Securities Limited
  • 19. Sector Update APPENDIX – II How is Ethylene Produced? Ethylene is produced commercially by the steam cracking of a wide range of hydrocarbon feedstocks. In Europe and Asia, ethylene is obtained mainly from cracking naphtha, gasoil and condensates with the coproduction of propylene, C4 olefins and aromatics (pyrolysis gasoline). The cracking of ethane and propane, primarily carried out in the US, Canada and the Middle East, has the advantage that it only produces ethylene and propylene, making the plants cheaper to construct and less complicated to operate. Chart A2-1: Steam Cracking Process Olefin cracking and inter- conversion processes are being developed to boost light olefins output. Typically, they can convert C4-C8 olefins and light pyrolysis gasoline into ethylene and propylene. Newer catalytic processes are under development that provide enhanced control of the cracking process or permit catalytic dehydrogenation of ethane. Small quantities of dilute ethylene can also be obtained from refinery streams. In South Africa, ethylene is produced by the Fisher-Tropsch process from gases obtained by coal gasification. Efforts have been made to develop processes which can crack crude or residual oil 19 Edelweiss Securities Limited
  • 20. Oil and Gas but they suffer from high operating costs. Processes are available that use lower alcohols as feedstocks. Norsk Hydro and UOP have developed a MTO (methanol- to-olefins) technology that converts methanol to ethylene and propylene. There is considerable interest in using this technology in China with methanol produced via the gasification of coal. Working with UOP, Total has developed a technology which takes the heavier olefins from the MTO unit and converts them into lighter olefins, more specifically into propylene. A pilot plant has been built at Feluy, Belgium, to assess this olefin cracking process (OCP) in conjunction with the MTO process. Much research is being conducted into the direct conversion of methane to ethylene. However, the problem with this technology, called oxidative coupling of methane (OCM), is the low per-pass yield of ethylene and the high yield of unwanted carbon oxide by-products such as carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide. Most attempts to increase product yield have been through new catalyst formulations. Research is also focusing on making further use of the carbon oxides by producing methanol or methane. 20 Edelweiss Securities Limited
  • 21. Sector Update APPENDIX – III Middle East Feedstock concerns: Gas demand in the Chart A3-1: Electricity demand in the ME countries have grown 8.7% Middle East has been CAGR from 1980 rising by around 7% per annum and it has outpaced the growth in regional gas production. Domestic demand growth is fuelled by economic expansion, low gas prices, the switch from oil to gas for power generation and the injection of gas into oil reservoirs to enhance oil recovery. In the Middle East, there is tension between the requirement to supply domestic markets to fuel economic growth and the desire to achieve higher revenues via export sales agreements. 73% of the Middle Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration East gas reserves are concentrated in just two countries: Iran and Qatar. Qatar, which is the world’s largest LNG producer and exporter, has a moratorium on new North Field developments and export sales agreements until 2012. Outside of Iran and Qatar, a significant proportion of the region’s gas reserves are in associated oil deposits, and so gas production is not flexible. Much of the gas in the region is also sour, which makes it more difficult and costly to extract and process. Domestic sales prices, which are subsidized to varying degrees, may need to rise to cover the additional processing costs and investment required in gas infrastructure. 21 Edelweiss Securities Limited
  • 22. Oil and Gas Price subsidies, political differences and more lucrative export opportunities have reduced the availability of gas produced in the Middle East for consumption in the region. As a result, there is limited intra-regional infrastructure in place for the transportation of natural gas. Individual countries in the Middle East have developed independent strategies to address their rising demand for natural gas. Saudi Arabia is looking to substantially increase gas production to meet growing domestic demand and UAE has been actively looking at unconventional gas reserves. The emirate’s associated gas is increasingly being used for reinjection. Rapid economic development and high domestic power subsidies have prompted UAE to take alternative measures to meet future demand. Chart A3-2: Saudi ethane will be more dependent on oil production Saudi Arabia: The current capacity of ethane crackers in the country is 6.1 mtpa while it is expected to increase to 6.4 mtpa over the next five years. Saudi Arabia currently produces enough ethane to supply to the crackers; however, electricity production is also expected to grow at more than 8%. As most of the natural gas produced in Saudi Arabia is associated gas (hence the Source: CMAI Global production is capped by OPEC Chart A3-3: KSA ethane deliveries may turn below allocations crude oil production quota of 8.4 million bpd), and lower regulated price ($0.75 per mmBtu) does not provide any incentive for drilling non-associated gas, ethane supply is expected to tighten in the future. Though the government is planning to increase the gas price to $1.2 per mmBtu from 2012, this may not be practically possible in the near term, given the tense socio political situation throughout the Source: CMAI Global Middle East. 22 Edelweiss Securities Limited
  • 23. Sector Update Iran: Iran has ethane cracker Chart A3-4: Sanctions continue to delay Iran capacity of 3.7 mtpa while the largest non-associated gas field, South Pars, can produce enough ethane to support 1.35 mtpa. The country has plans to produce additional natural gas from South Pars over the next five years that can support upto 4.5 mtpa of cracker capacity. Qatar: Qatar has put a moratorium on any new projects requiring natural gas till 2012. Source: CMAI Global Depending on the outcome of its ongoing study of the natural gas reserve in the country, even if the moratorium is lifted in 2012, no new capacity can come up before 2016. Bottom line: The demand for natural gas has exponentially grown throughout the Middle East riding on cheap pricing. This puts a risk of feedstock availability in the new multi million tonne projects. 23 Edelweiss Securities Limited
  • 24. Oil and Gas APPENDIX – IV Existing and expected cracker capacities all over the world Country Company Location Capacity, Capacity, Year of Feedstock Slate (%) tonnes/ tonnes/ Completion year 2010 year (Existing C2 C3 C4 Naphtha Gasoil Other Existing New capacity=2010) ALGERIA Sonatrach Skikda 133,000 2010 100 Dow Bahia ARGENTINA Chemical Blanca 275,000 2010 100 Co. (BB1) Dow Bahia ARGENTINA Chemical Blanca 490,000 2010 100 Co. (BB2) Huntsman San pARGENTINA 21,000 2010 25 75 Corp. Lorenzo Petrobras Puerto San ARGENTINA 32,500 2010 100 Energia Martin Petrobras San ARGENTINA 20,000 2010 100 Energia Lorenzo Huntsman Chemical Melbourne, AUSTRALIA Co. 32,000 2010 100 Vic. Australia Ltd. Qenos Pty. AUSTRALIA Altona, Vic. 180,000 2010 80 5 15 Ltd. Qenos Pty. Botany, AUSTRALIA 250,000 2010 80 20 Ltd. NSW AUSTRIA OMV AG Schwechat 500,000 2010 15 23 62 Azerichimi AZERBAIJAN Sumgait 30,000 2010 a Azerichimi AZERBAIJAN Sumgait 300,000 2010 a Production Novopolots BELARUS Associatio 73,000 2010 k n Polymir Production Novopolots BELARUS Associatio 120,000 2010 k n Polymir BASF BELGIUM Antwerpen Antwerp 1,080,000 2010 5 95 NV Benelux BELGIUM Antwerp 255,000 2010 16 16 18 50 FAO Benelux BELGIUM Antwerp 610,000 2010 16 16 18 50 FAO Benelux BELGIUM Antwerp 550,000 2010 16 16 18 50 FAO 24 Edelweiss Securities Limited
  • 25. Sector Update Country Company Location Capacity, Capacity, Year of Feedstock Slate (%) tonnes/ tonnes/ Completion year 2010 year (Existing C2 C3 C4 Naphtha Gasoil Other Existing New capacity=2010) Braskem Camacari, BRAZIL 600,000 2010 5 95 SA Bahia Braskem Camacari, BRAZIL 680,000 2010 100 SA Bahia BRAZIL Copesul Triunfo, RS 700,000 2010 100 BRAZIL Copesul Triunfo, RS 500,000 2010 100 Petroquimi Santo BRAZIL ca Uniao Andre, Sao 700,000 2010 100 SA Paulo Rio Duque de BRAZIL 520,000 2010 100 Polimeros Caxias Lukoil Neftochim BULGARIA Bourgas 250,000 2010 3.4 10 86.6 Bourgas JSC Lukoil Neftochim BULGARIA Bourgas 150,000 2010 100 Bourgas JSC Dow Fort CANADA Chemical Saskatchew 1,100,000 2010 100 Co. an, Alberta Imperial Oil Sarnia, CANADA 300,000 2010 33 33 34 Products & Ontario Chemicals Nova Corunna, CANADA Chemicals 839,002 2010 10 15 30 40 5 Ontario Corp. Nova Joffre, CANADA Chemicals Alberta 725,624 2010 100 Corp. (E1) Nova Joffre, CANADA Chemicals Alberta 816,327 2010 100 Corp. (E2) Nova Joffre, CANADA Chemicals Alberta 1,269,841 2010 100 Corp. (E3) Varennes, CANADA Petromont 295,000 2010 10 25 50 15 Quebec CHILE Petrox SA Concepcion 60,000 2010 8 16 76 BASF-YPC CHINA Nanjing 600,000 2010 100 Co. Ltd. China National Daya Bay, CHINA 800,000 2010 100 Offshore Guangdong Oil Co. 25 Edelweiss Securities Limited
  • 26. Oil and Gas Country Company Location Capacity, Capacity, Year of Feedstock Slate (%) tonnes/ tonnes/ Completion year 2010 year (Existing C2 C3 C4 Naphtha Gasoil Other Existing New capacity=2010) China National CHINA Dushanzi 140,000 2010 100 Offshore Oil Co. China Petrochem CHINA ical Daqing 320,000 2010 100 Industrial Corp. Dalian CHINA Petrochem Dalian 4,000 2010 100 ical Co. Fujian Petrochem CHINA Quanzhou 800,000 2010 100 ical Co. Ltd. Fushun Petrochem CHINA Fushun 115,000 2010 100 ical Complex Fushun Petrochem CHINA Fushun 685,000 2011 100 ical Complex Gaoqiao CHINA Petrochem Gaoqiao 14,000 2010 100 ical Co. Guangzhou CHINA Petrochem Guangzhou 150,000 2010 100 ical Co. Jilin Chemical CHINA Jilin 700,000 2010 100 Industrial Co. Ltd. Lanzhou Chemical CHINA Lanzhou 600,000 2010 100 Industrial Co. Lanzhou Chemical CHINA Lanzhou 320,000 2011 100 Industrial Co. Norinco/Zh CHINA Panjin 450,000 2010 100 enhua Panjin Ethylene CHINA Panjin 130,000 2010 100 Industry Corp. CHINA Petrochina Dushanzi 1,000,000 2010 100 Caojing, CHINA Sinopec 145,000 2010 30 70 Shanghai Caojing, CHINA Sinopec 700,000 2010 60 40 Shanghai 26 Edelweiss Securities Limited
  • 27. Sector Update Country Company Location Capacity, Capacity, Year of Feedstock Slate (%) tonnes/ tonnes/ Completion year 2010 year (Existing C2 C3 C4 Naphtha Gasoil Other Existing New capacity=2010) CHINA Sinopec Shanghai 605,000 2014 60 40 Maoming, CHINA Sinopec 1,000,000 2010 100 Guangdong CHINA Sinopec Neijing 650,000 2010 60 40 Puyang, CHINA Sinopec 180,000 2010 100 Henan CHINA Sinopec Qilu 720,000 2010 80 20 CHINA Sinopec Tianjin 200,000 2010 100 CHINA Sinopec Tianjin 1,000,000 2010 100 Wuhan, CHINA Sinopec 800,000 2013 100 Hubei CHINA Sinopec Zhenhai 1,000,000 2010 100 PetroChina Sichuan Chengdu, CHINA Petrochem Quanzhou 800,000 2011 100 ical City Co. Ltd BASF-YPC CHINA Nanjing 150,000 2010 100 Co. Ltd. Daqing Petroleum Heilongjian CHINA & 600,000 2012 100 g Province Chemical Co. Shenhua Baotou, Baotou CHINA Inner 300,000 2010 100 Coal Mongolia Chemical Chinese Kaohsiung TAIWAN Petroleum 500,000 2010 100 Linyuan Corp. Chinese TAIWAN Petroleum Linyuan 230,000 2010 100 Corp. Chinese TAIWAN Petroleum Linyuan 380,000 2010 100 Corp. Formosa TAIWAN Petrochem Mailiao 700,000 2010 7.3 92.7 ical Corp. Formosa TAIWAN Petrochem Mailiao 1,035,000 2010 6.6 0.3 93.1 ical Corp. Formosa TAIWAN Mailiao 1,200,000 2010 9 91 Petrochem 27 Edelweiss Securities Limited
  • 28. Oil and Gas Country Company Location Capacity, Capacity, Year of Feedstock Slate (%) tonnes/ tonnes/ Completion year 2010 year (Existing C2 C3 C4 Naphtha Gasoil Other Existing New capacity=2010) ical Corp. CPC Corp. Kaohsiung, TAIWAN 600,000 2013 100 Taiwan Linyuan Empresa Colombian Barrancabe COLOMBIA 100,000 2010 80 20 a de rmeja Petroleos CROATIA Polimeri Zagreb 90,000 2010 100 CZECH REPUBLIC Unipetrol Litvinov 544,000 2010 2 6 56 1 35 Sidi Kerir EGYPT Petrochem Alexandria 300,000 2010 100 icals Co. Borealis FINLAND Porvoo 390,000 2010 100 OY FRANCE A. P. Feyzin Feyzin 250,000 2010 100 Notre ExxonMobi Dame de FRANCE 400,000 2010 100 l Corp. Gravencho n Naphthach FRANCE Lavera 740,000 2010 50 50 imie Polimeri FRANCE Europa Dunkerque 430,000 2010 0.5 3.5 20 76 France SAS Societe du Craqueur Berre FRANCE de L’ 450,000 2010 12 75 13 l’Etang Aubette SCA Total Carling-St. FRANCE Petrochem Avold- 320,000 2010 100 icals Marienau Total Gonfreville FRANCE Petrochem 520,000 2010 100 l’Orcher icals Basell GERMANY Polyfine Wesseling 738,000 2010 10 90 GMBH Basell GERMANY Polyfine Wesseling 305,000 2010 100 GMBH Ludwigshaf GERMANY BASF AG 620,000 2010 5 5 90 en BP Gelsenkirch GERMANY Gelsenkirc 580,000 2010 2 8 78 12 en hen BP Gelsenkirch GERMANY Gelsenkirc 480,000 2010 9 65 26 en hen 28 Edelweiss Securities Limited
  • 29. Sector Update Country Company Location Capacity, Capacity, Year of Feedstock Slate (%) tonnes/ tonnes/ Completion year 2010 year (Existing C2 C3 C4 Naphtha Gasoil Other Existing New capacity=2010) GERMANY INEOS Dormagen 550,000 2010 100 GERMANY INEOS Dormagen 544,000 2010 100 LyondellBa Munchsmu GERMANY 400,000 2010 13 17 17 53 sell nster Dow GERMANY Chemical Bohlen 560,000 2010 100 Co. OMV Burghause GERMANY Deutschlan 450,000 2010 2.5 6 6 84 1.5 n, Bavaria d GMBH Shell & GERMANY DEA Oil Heide 110,000 2010 100 GMBH Shell & GERMANY DEA Oil Wesseling 500,000 2010 100 GMBH EKO Thessalonik GREECE Chemicals 20,000 2010 65 35 i Co. AE Tiszai Vegyi Tiszaujvaro HUNGARY 370,000 2010 1 4 90 5 Kombinat s Ltd. Tiszai Vegyi Tiszaujvaro HUNGARY 290,000 2010 7 16 75 2 Kombinat s Ltd. Gas Authority Pata, Uttar INDIA 300,000 2010 33 33 34 of India Pradesh Ltd. Haldia Haldia, INDIA Petrochem West 670,000 2010 100 icals Ltd. Bengal Indian Oil Haryana, INDIA 800,000 2010 100 Corp. Ltd. New Delhi Indian Petrochem Baroda, INDIA 156,000 2010 100 icals Corp. Gujarat Ltd. Indian Petrochem Gandhar, INDIA 400,000 2010 42.5 57.5 icals Corp. Gujarat Ltd. Indian Nagothane, Petrochem INDIA Maharashtr 400,000 2010 42.5 57.5 icals Corp. a Ltd. National Thane, INDIA 75,000 2010 100 Organic Maharashtr 29 Edelweiss Securities Limited
  • 30. Oil and Gas Country Company Location Capacity, Capacity, Year of Feedstock Slate (%) tonnes/ tonnes/ Completion year 2010 year (Existing C2 C3 C4 Naphtha Gasoil Other Existing New capacity=2010) Chemical a Industries Ltd. Reliance Hazira, INDIA Industries 840,000 2010 100 Gujarat Ltd. Brahmaput ra Cracker Lepetkata, INDIA and 280,000 2013 33 33 34 Assam Polymer Ltd. ONGC Petro- Dahej, INDIA 1,100,000 2013 50 50 additions Gujarat Ltd. (OPAL) PT Cilegon, INDONESIA Chandra 600,000 2010 100 West Java Asri Amir Kabir IRAN Petrochem Amir Kabir 520,000 2010 24 4 12 58 2 ical Co. Arak IRAN Petrochem Arak 247,000 2010 100 ical Arya Sasol Assaluyeh IRAN Polymer 1,000,000 2010 100 Bushehr Co. Bandar Imam Bandar IRAN 550,000 2010 20 3 10 67 Petrochem Imam ical Co. Jam Assaluyeh IRAN Petrochem 1,320,000 2010 100 Bushehr ical Co. Marun Bandar IRAN Petrochem 1,100,000 2010 100 Assaluyeh ical Co. Tabriz IRAN Petrochem Tabriz 136,000 2010 4 8 8 80 ical Co. Carmel ISRAEL Haifa 240,000 2010 10 10 80 Olefins Ltd. Polimeri ITALY Brindisi 440,000 2010 100 Europa Polimeri ITALY Gela 245,000 2010 25 5 70 Europa Polimeri Porto ITALY 490,000 2010 100 Europa Marghera Polimeri ITALY Priolo 745,000 2010 2 1 65 32 Europa Porto ITALY Syndial 250,000 2010 70 30 Torres Asahikasei Kurasiki, JAPAN 500,000 2010 100 Chemicals Okayama 30 Edelweiss Securities Limited
  • 31. Sector Update Country Company Location Capacity, Capacity, Year of Feedstock Slate (%) tonnes/ tonnes/ Completion year 2010 year (Existing C2 C3 C4 Naphtha Gasoil Other Existing New capacity=2010) Corp. Idemitsu Petrochem JAPAN Chiba 374,000 2010 2 98 ical Co. Ltd. Idemitsu Petrochem JAPAN Tokuyama 623,000 2010 100 ical Co. Ltd. Keiyo Ichihara, JAPAN 740,000 2010 100 Ethylene Chiba Maruzen JAPAN Petrochem Chiba 520,000 2010 100 icals Mitsubishi Kashima JAPAN Chemical 375,000 2010 10 20 55 15 (Unit 1) Corp. Mitsubishi Kashima JAPAN Chemical 453,000 2010 10 20 55 15 (Unit 2) Corp. Mitsubishi JAPAN Chemical Mizushima 500,000 2010 5 5 80 10 Corp. Mitsui Ichihara, JAPAN Chemicals 617,000 2010 10 90 Chiba Inc. Mitsui Takaishi JAPAN Chemicals 450,000 2010 100 City, Osaka Inc. Nippon JAPAN Petrochem Kawasaki 460,000 2010 100 ical Showa JAPAN Oita 675,000 2010 100 Denko KK Sanyo JAPAN Petrochem Mizushima 500,000 2010 100 ical Co. Ltd Sumitomo JAPAN Chemical Chiba 415,000 2010 100 Co. Ltd. Tonen JAPAN Chemical Kawasaki 515,000 2010 100 Corp. Tosoh JAPAN Yokkaichi 527,000 2010 100 Corp. KAZAKHSTAN Akpo Aktau 100,000 2010 Governme KAZAKHSTAN Atyrau 30,000 2010 nt Equate KUWAIT Shuaiba 850,000 2010 100 Petrochem 31 Edelweiss Securities Limited
  • 32. Oil and Gas Country Company Location Capacity, Capacity, Year of Feedstock Slate (%) tonnes/ tonnes/ Completion year 2010 year (Existing C2 C3 C4 Naphtha Gasoil Other Existing New capacity=2010) ical Co. (Equate II) National LIBYA Ras Lanuf 350,000 2010 100 Oil Co. Ethylene MALAYSIA Malaysia Kertih 400,000 2010 100 Sdn. Bhd. Optimal MALAYSIA Olefins Kertih 600,000 2010 100 Sdn. Bhd. Titan Pasir Petrochem MALAYSIA Gudang, 442,000 2010 10 10 80 icals Sdn. Johor Bhd. Titan Pasir Petrochem MALAYSIA Gudang, 667,000 2010 10 10 80 icals Sdn. Johor Bhd. La Petroleos MEXICO Cangrejera, 600,000 2010 100 Mexicanos Veracruz Petroleos Morelos, MEXICO 600,000 2010 100 Mexicanos Veracruz Petroleos Pajaritos, MEXICO 184,000 2010 100 Mexicanos Veracruz Dow Terneuzen NETHERLANDS Chemical 580,000 2010 15 85 (No. 1) Co. Dow Terneuzen NETHERLANDS Chemical 585,000 2010 15 85 (No. 2) Co. Dow Terneuzen NETHERLANDS Chemical 635,000 2010 100 (No. 3) Co. SABIC Geleen NETHERLANDS 595,000 2010 100 Europe (No. 3) SABIC Geleen NETHERLANDS 670,000 2010 100 Europe (No. 4) Shell NETHERLANDS Nederland Moerdijk 900,000 2010 100 Chemie BV Eleme Petrochem Eleme NIGERIA 550,000 2010 33 33 34 ical Co. River Ltd. Namhung Anju, South Youth NORTH KOREA P’yong’an 60,000 2010 Chemical Province Complex Rafnes, NORWAY Noretyl AS 550,000 2010 30 45 25 Bamble PKN Orlen POLAND Plock 700,000 2010 5 5 90 SA 32 Edelweiss Securities Limited
  • 33. Sector Update Country Company Location Capacity, Capacity, Year of Feedstock Slate (%) tonnes/ tonnes/ Completion year 2010 year (Existing C2 C3 C4 Naphtha Gasoil Other Existing New capacity=2010) Repsol YPF PORTUGAL Sines 570,000 2010 100 SA Qatar QATAR Petrochem Mesaieed 720,000 2010 100 ical Co. QATAR Q-Chem I Mesaieed 500,000 2010 80 20 Ras Laffan QATAR Ras Laffan 1,300,000 2010 80 20 Olefins Co. ROMANIA Petrom SA Pitesti 170,000 2010 19.5 8.5 23.7 48.4 Petromidia ROMANIA Navodari 200,000 2010 100 SA Angarsknef Angarsk, RUSSIA 60,000 2010 5.2 89.2 5.6 torgsintez Siberia Angarsknef Angarsk, RUSSIA 240,000 2010 5.2 89.2 5.6 torgsintez Siberia Nizhnekam Nizhnekam RUSSIA skneftekhi 600,000 2010 sk m RUSSIA Norsy Norsy 300,000 2010 100 Omskykau Omsk, RUSSIA 90,000 2010 chuyk Siberia RUSSIA Orgsintez Kazan 445,000 2010 100 RUSSIA Oxosyntez Orsk 45,000 2010 Novopolots RUSSIA Polimir 150,000 2010 100 k Salavatneft RUSSIA Salavat 300,000 2010 orgsintez Sibur RUSSIA Perm 30,000 2010 Himprom Sibur- Nizhny RUSSIA 300,000 2010 20 80 Neftechim Novgorod Sintezkauc RUSSIA Samara 300,000 2010 huk Stavrapolp RUSSIA Prikumsk 350,000 2010 olymer RUSSIA Tomsk PCC Tomsk 300,000 2010 Uraorgsint RUSSIA Ufa 235,000 2010 es Al Jubail SAUDI ARABIA Petrochem Jubail 800,000 2010 50 50 ical Co. Arabian SAUDI ARABIA Jubail 800,000 2010 100 Petrochem 33 Edelweiss Securities Limited
  • 34. Oil and Gas Country Company Location Capacity, Capacity, Year of Feedstock Slate (%) tonnes/ tonnes/ Completion year 2010 year (Existing C2 C3 C4 Naphtha Gasoil Other Existing New capacity=2010) ical Co. Arabian SAUDI ARABIA Petrochem Jubail 800,000 2010 50 50 ical Co. Arabian SAUDI ARABIA Petrochem Jubail 650,000 2010 100 ical Co. Chevron Phillips SAUDI ARABIA Jubail 300,000 2010 50 50 Chemical Co. LP Eastern SAUDI ARABIA Petrochem Jubail 1,300,000 2010 50 50 ical Co. Jubail United SAUDI ARABIA Jubail 1,450,000 2010 50 50 Petrochem ical Co. Saudi Basic SAUDI ARABIA Industries Yanbu 1,380,000 2010 50 50 Corp. Saudi SAUDI ARABIA Petrochem Jubail 1,350,000 2010 100 ical Co. SAUDI ARABIA Tasnee Jubail 1,000,000 2010 25 25 25 25 Yanbu SAUDI ARABIA Petrochem Yanbu 875,000 2010 100 ical Co. Yanbu SAUDI ARABIA Petrochem Yanbu 830,000 2010 16 16 18 50 ical Co. Saudi SAUDI ARABIA Al-Jubail 1,200,000 2011 Polymers SERBIA AND Chemi Pancevo 200,000 2010 MONTENEGRO Industria ExxonMobi Jurong SINGAPORE l Chemical 900,000 2010 33 33 34 Island Co. Petrochem ical Corp. Pulau Ayer SINGAPORE of 465,000 2010 100 Merbau Singapore Pte. Ltd. Petrochem ical Corp. Pulau Ayer SINGAPORE of 615,000 2010 100 Merbau Singapore Pte. Ltd. Shell Eastern Bukom SINGAPORE 800,000 2010 100 Petroleum Island Ltd. 34 Edelweiss Securities Limited
  • 35. Sector Update Country Company Location Capacity, Capacity, Year of Feedstock Slate (%) tonnes/ tonnes/ Completion year 2010 year (Existing C2 C3 C4 Naphtha Gasoil Other Existing New capacity=2010) ExxonMobi Jurong SINGAPORE l Chemical 1,000,000 2013 100 Island Corp. Slovnaft SLOVAKIA Petrochem Bratislava 210,000 2010 8 11 26 55 icals Sasol SOUTH AFRICA Sasolburg 110,000 2010 80 20 Polymers Sasol SOUTH AFRICA Secunda 475,000 2010 75 5 20 Polymers Honam SOUTH KOREA Petrochem Yeochun 750,000 2010 100 ical Korea Petrochem SOUTH KOREA ical Ulsan 470,000 2010 100 Industries Co. Ltd. LG Daesan SOUTH KOREA Petrochem Daesan 760,000 2010 100 ical LG Petrochem SOUTH KOREA Yeosu City 900,000 2010 100 ical Co. Ltd. Lotte Daesan SOUTH KOREA Daesan 650,000 2010 100 Petrochem ical Samsung SOUTH KOREA General Daesan 850,000 2010 100 Chemicals SOUTH KOREA SK Corp. Ulsan 545,000 2010 100 SOUTH KOREA SK Corp. Ulsan 185,000 2010 100 SOUTH KOREA Yeochon Yeochun 857,000 2010 100 SOUTH KOREA Yeochon Yeochun 555,000 2010 100 SOUTH KOREA Yeochon Yeochun 400,000 2010 100 Dow SPAIN Chemical Tarragona 660,000 2010 100 Co. Repsol YPF SPAIN Puertollano 250,000 2010 100 SA Repsol YPF SPAIN Tarragona 660,000 2010 100 SA Stenungsun SWEDEN Borealis AB 625,000 2010 40 20 40 d 35 Edelweiss Securities Limited
  • 36. Oil and Gas Country Company Location Capacity, Capacity, Year of Feedstock Slate (%) tonnes/ tonnes/ Completion year 2010 year (Existing C2 C3 C4 Naphtha Gasoil Other Existing New capacity=2010) SWITZERLAND Lonza Ltd. Visp 33,000 2010 30 60 10 Map Ta Map Ta THAILAND Phut Phut, 900,000 2010 100 Olefins Co. Rayong Map Ta PTT THAILAND Phut, 400,000 2010 80 6 14 Chemical Rayong Map Ta PTT THAILAND Phut, 515,000 2010 5 18 28 49 Chemical Rayong Map Ta PTT THAILAND Phut, 461,000 2010 100 Chemical Rayong Map Ta PTT THAILAND Phut, 1,000,000 2010 100 Chemical Rayong Map Ta Rayong THAILAND Phut, 800,000 2010 100 Olefins Ltd. Rayong PTT Map Ta THAILAND Polyethyle 1,000,000 2010 100 Phut ne Co. Ltd. Petkim Petrochem Aliaga, TURKEY icals 520,000 2010 100 Izmir Holding Co. UKRAINE Chlorvinyl Kalush 250,000 2010 100 UKRAINE Oriana 180,000 2010 UKRAINE TNK-BP Lisichansk 300,000 2010 100 Borouge UNITED ARAB Abu Dhabi Ruwais, 2,100,000 2010 100 EMIRATES Polymers Abu Dhabi Co. Ltd. Abu Dhabi UNITED ARAB Polymers Ruwais, 1,500,000 2013 100 EMIRATES Co. Ltd. Abu Dhabi (Borouge) UNITED Grangemo INEOS 730,000 2010 100 KINGDOM uth UNITED Grangemo INEOS 340,000 2010 100 KINGDOM uth ExxonMobi UNITED l Chemical Fawley 120,000 2010 9 8 8 25 25 25 KINGDOM Co. ExxonMobi UNITED Mossmorra l Chemical 830,000 2010 100 KINGDOM n Fife Co. UNITED SABIC Wilton 865,000 2010 20 10 70 KINGDOM Europe 36 Edelweiss Securities Limited
  • 37. Sector Update Country Company Location Capacity, Capacity, Year of Feedstock Slate (%) tonnes/ tonnes/ Completion year 2010 year (Existing C2 C3 C4 Naphtha Gasoil Other Existing New capacity=2010) BASF Fina UNITED STATES Petrochem Port Arthur 907,000 2010 100 icals Chevron Phillips Cedar UNITED STATES 803,000 2010 30 20 25 25 Chemical Bayou Co. LP Chevron Phillips UNITED STATES Port Arthur 861,000 2010 70 25 5 Chemical Co. LP Chevron Phillips UNITED STATES Sweeny 907,000 2010 38 37 25 Chemical Co. LP Chevron Phillips UNITED STATES Sweeny 676,000 2010 75 25 Chemical Co. LP Chevron Phillips UNITED STATES Sweeny 295,000 2010 85 15 Chemical Co. LP Dow Freeport UNITED STATES Chemical 633,000 2010 50 50 (LHC 7) Co. Dow Freeport UNITED STATES Chemical 1,024,000 2010 10 20 70 (LHC 8) Co. Dow Plaquemin UNITED STATES Chemical 522,000 2010 75 25 e (LHC 2) Co. Dow Plaquemin UNITED STATES Chemical 740,000 2010 70 10 20 e (LHC 3) Co. Dow UNITED STATES Chemical Taft 1 612,000 2010 20 40 40 Co. UNITED STATES DuPont Orange 681,000 2010 100 Eastman UNITED STATES Chemical Longview 140,000 2010 25 67 7 1 Co. Eastman UNITED STATES Chemical Longview 140,000 2010 25 67 7 1 Co. Eastman UNITED STATES Chemical Longview 140,000 2010 25 67 7 1 Co. Eastman UNITED STATES Chemical Longview 360,000 2010 25 67 7 1 Co. 37 Edelweiss Securities Limited