Epidemiology of COVID 19

1. COVID 19
Most common queries about the
Novel Coronavirus based on
various experts opinion from the
reputed institutes and analysis of
the CDC, and WHO
Assistant Professor Dr. Ali Al Mousawi
College of Medicine
University of Kerbala / Iraq

2. Coronaviruses
• Coronaviruses are a large
family of viruses found in
both animals and humans.
• Some infect people and are
known to cause illness
ranging from the common
cold to more severe diseases
such as Middle East
Respiratory Syndrome
(MERS) and Severe Acute
Respiratory Syndrome (SARS).

3. Basics first
Involves your upper respiratorytract
)nose, throat, airways, lungs(.
Caused by the newly discovered
coronavirus, called as novel
coronavirus, first identified in
Wuhan, China, in December 2019.
COVID-19 is an infectious
condition, which means it
can be spread, directly or
indirectly, from one person
to another

4. Coronavirus has
“high infectivity
but lowmortality”
How deadly is Coronavirus?
• Mortality rate ranges
between 2-3%. It is
significantly less severe than
2003 SARS (MR: 10%)or 2012
MERS (MR: 35%) outbreaks.
• Riskof death is only higher in
older people (above an age
of ~60 years) and people
with pre-existing health
conditions.

5. Why is there so
much panic?
The lack of verified facts and
floating rumours are to be
blamed for this panic. The most
important thing is when a virus is
new, we don’t know how it may
affect people.

6. No. ofrecovered
cases
No. of active cases,
receiving medical care
Total no. of
confirmed cases
66,216 57,463121,061
Will I die if I catch
the disease?
No
• Almost 80%of people have
mild symptoms, and recover
from the disease in 2 weeks.
• Most of the symptoms can be
treated with timely medical care.
Source: John Hopkins Center for System Science and Engineering (Live dashboard), as reported on March 11,2020.
No. ofdeaths
4,368

7. Who is getting sick
and howsick?
Older people are twice as likely to
have serious COVID-19 illness.
Most coronavirus led illnesses
are generally mild, especially for
children and young adults.

8. Are children also at risk
of coronavirus infection?
Just over 2% of cases were
under 18years of age.
Of these, fewer than 3%
developed severe or
critical disease.
COVID-19 appears to be
relatively rare and mild in
children.

9. So, how exactlydoes
the Coronavirusspread?
An infected person can
spread the infection to
a healthy person
through eye, nose, and mouth, via
droplets produced on coughingor
sneezing.
close contact with infectedperson.
contact with contaminated surfaces,
objects, or items of personaluse.

10. Epidemic spreads in geometric progression

11. R0 for COVID 19 is 2.5

12. What is Reproduction number R0?
Three possibilities exist for the
potential spread or decline of a
disease, depending on its R0 value:
• If R0 is less than 1, each existing
infection causes less than one
new infection. In this case, the
disease will decline and
eventually die out.
• If R0 equals 1, each existing
infection causes one new
infection. The disease will stay
alive and stable, but there won’t
be an outbreak or an epidemic.
• If R0 is more than 1, each existing
infection causes more than one
new infection. The disease will
spread between people, and there
may be an outbreak or epidemic.

13. R0 = τ (transmissibility) * c¯ (average rate of contact) * d
(duration of infectiousness)

14. COVID 19 transmissibility
• People are infectious early in the
course of the disease, even before
presenting symptoms
• Estimates indicate that
presymptomatic individuals can
account for up to 25% of transmission
• Viral shedding can occur several days /
weeks after recovery, it is still not
clear if they are still infectious.
• A recent study with German patients
that developed mild disease suggests
that 10 days after symptom onset,
patients are not infectious and can be
discharged
• Truly asymptomatic infections are not
that frequent. However this cipher
remains controversial (many experts
think it is much higher),
and large serological studies will
be required to better grasp the
frequency of asymptomatic infections

15. COVID 19 transmissibility
• There is no evidence for
reinfection after recovery (this
may be rather due to test
sensitivity)
• Transmission seems to occur
mainly in the household
• Transmission within hospitals or
schools seems to be low
• Children get infected but do not
develop severe disease
• It is still not clear if and how
much they contribute to viral
transmission, but this may suggest
that closing schools is not the top
priority)

16. Coronavirus outbreak is a
pandemic, said WHO on
13th March 2020
The declaration comes after a 13-fold rise in
the number of cases outside China in the past
two weeks, and a trebling of countries
affected — but does not change WHO strategy
for tackling spread of the virus
countries would soon move from efforts that
involve containing as many new cases as
possible to social-distancing measures, such
as school closures, that do not rely on
knowing who is infected with the virus and
who is not.
Early government action and
individual social distancing
measures are key to slowing and
controlling the spread of the
epidemic.

17. Europe is the new
Epicenter of COVID19
• Globally, 132 758 confirmed
cases and 7499 deaths
from 123 countries on 17th
March 2020
• In Italy, which has the
largest outbreak in Europe,
reported 2651 new cases in
the past day.

18. There is no such evidence as yet.
experience with other
coronaviruses like SARSand MERS
suggest that people do not get
infected through food.
Can the novel coronavirus
be passed on through food?
No

19. There is no such evidence as yet.
Thenovel coronavirus isnot knownto
spread directly through poultry
products. But,experts say itcan be a
good option to have only properly
cooked meat.
Can eating chicken or
eggs cause Coronavirus?
No

20. Do I have coronavirus if I
am coughing or sneezing?
You can suspect to have coronavirus, only if
You have symptoms (fever, cough, shortness of
breath) + any out of these:
Travel history to a coronavirus-affected area
(likeChina, Iran, Italy,Republic of Korea, etc.).
Close contact with such a person.
Visiting a healthcare facility/ labs
where Coronavirus patients are
being taken careof.

21. Track what your
symptoms are
Coronavirus can get you symptoms like fever, cough, shortness
of breath. They can be almost similar to common cold or flu and
may appear 2-14days of exposure. Severity of illness can vary in
different people from mild to severesymptoms.
If you have a fever, cold, or sore throat, don’t panic. Take good
care of yourself:
Inhale steam 2-3 times a
day to clear offcongestion
Stay hydrated and get
adequate rest*
Washing your hands
frequently can reduce the
spread of thevirus
Takemedicines as and
whenadvisedby the doctor
Visita doctorif condition
worsens or does not get
better withtime

22. Cold Vs. FluVs.
Coronavirus
If you have a sore throat, it’s more likely a
cold than flu or coronavirus, in general.
Cold Flu Coronavirus
Time between catching
the virus and beginningto
show symptoms
1-3days 1-4 days 2-14days
Symptom onset Gradual Abrupt Gradual
Howlongdo symptoms last 7-12days 3-7 days
Mild cases:~2weeks.
Severe or critical
disease: 3-6 weeks
Major symptoms
Fever Sometimes Common Common
Runny nose Common Sometimes LessCommon
Sore throat Common Sometimes LessCommon
Cough Common Sometimes Common
Body Ache Rare; ifoccurs,
mild
Common LessCommon
Difficulty Breathing Rare Rare Common

23. Testing for coronavirus willonly be done
as recommended by the doctors only
if someone falls under the definition of
"suspected case".
Should I be tested for coronavirus if I
have high grade fever, cough and
difficulty in breathing? Or can I get a
coronavirus test done just for the
sake ofsatisfaction?
No

24. Why can only designated labs test
coronavirus? Why can't I get a home
sample collection done for
coronavirus testing?
Itisbecause the virus ishighly
contagious and can only be tested by
special labs equipped to handle such
contagious pathogens. Asof now,only
labs with biosafety level 4 (BSL4) can
handle the COVID-19 samples.

25. Can a person infected
with coronavirus
recover completely
and be no more
infectious?
Infact, about 80%of people have
recovered from the diseasewithout
needing special treatment.
Yes !

26. Can coronavirusbe
treated?
Symptom-based medical care isgiven
and has proven reallyeffective.
There isno specific treatment orvaccine
available for novel coronavirus asyet.
Yes !

27. Can eating garlic
prevent infectionwith
the coronavirus?
There isno science-based evidence
that proves itsability to protect against
the coronavirus.

28. Will warm weather
stop the outbreak of
COVID-19?
Asper the experts in the field, heat and
warm weather is likely to decrease the
spread of COVID-19.

29. How long does the
coronavirus survive over
the surfaces or objects?
Survives up to 8-10 hours over porous
surfaces (likepaper, untreated wood,
cardboard, sponge and fabric) and
a little more than this over
nonporous surfaces (likeglass,
plastics, metals, varnished wood).

31. What type of mask should
one wear to protect
against the coronavirus?
The 3-layer disposable surgical masks
are goodenough to contain the virus.
N-95 or N-99 masks are notmandated.

32. Should the coronavirus
outbreak concern you about
your pets or other animals?
We stillrecommend washing your
hands before and after you interact
with your pets as you may not know if
some infected droplets get on your
pet's fur.
To date, no case has been
reported of pets or other
animals becoming sick
with COVID-19.

33. Thevirus that causes COVID-19seems to
be spreading easily and continually.
Community spread isseen only insome
affected geographic areas likeChina,
Republic of Korea,Iran, Italy,Hong Kong,
etc.
Major concern:
How easily does it spread?

34. Channel your worries into these
3 actionable goals:
1. Protect yourselves.
2. Protect your loved ones.
3. Protect your community.
3Ps: All it takes to
defeat Coronavirus!

35. Wash yourhand regularly withplentyof soap and water.
Keepan alcohol-based sanitizerready for times whensoap
andwater are not available.
Don’ttouch youreyes,mouth or nose withuncleanhands.
Keepyourdistanceof at least1meter from anyone
coughing orsneezing.
Followno-touch greeting for no germs contracted.Prefer
“namaste” or hand waving over handshake.
Protect yourselves:

36. Don’t sneeze or cough into your hands. Usea tissue
and throw itaway immediately, or sneeze in theinner
side of your elbow.
Don’t travel or visit crowded places if you’resick.
Do wear a mask if you’re sickand also if youare
taking care of someone with thesymptoms.
Protect your loved ones:

37. If you feel unwell, seekmedical attention.
If you have a fever, cough, or difficulty breathing, stay
indoors. Call healthcare professionals and follow their
advice.
Do not share “just any forwarded message”. Only share
authentic information coming through medicalexperts.
Protect your community: