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(CEFAM) FIN 230 - Portfolio Presentation
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Editor's Notes
- WORST CASE The bulls are making a big deal out of the residual strength in platinum group metals prices this week as that would seem to suggest that sentiment toward industrial and precious metals markets is strengthening. The bulls might also point to the prospect of a tightening of physical silver supply with another minor decline in daily silver exchange warehouse stocks posted overnight. However, supply hasn't exactly been a dominating fundamental force in the silver trade lately and therefore action in equities and other physical commodity markets might continue to be very important to the silver trade. Nonetheless, the silver bulls seem to be able to foster favorable forward demand expectations even in the face of a thin US report slate this week and that in turn could justify silver prices sitting within close proximity to the highest silver price level since January 21st. Like gold, seeing silver prices manage a rise this morning in the face of a higher US Dollar, would seem to suggest that the bulls are managing to win the early battle today. One can't discount the prospect of an upside breakout on the silver charts directly ahead, especially since the silver market is showing strength in the face of many outside market negatives. Apparently silver prices below $17.00 are now considered too cheap for conditions, but we are just not convinced that silver prices are destined to rise sharply above the $17.50 level in the May contract in the coming trading sessions. BEST CASE At first blush, a higher Dollar and lower equities seems to have applied some minor pressure to silver prices. However, the May silver contract did manage to rise back above the prior session's highs at times overnight and that has to embolden some bulls and discourage some bears. While it seems like silver is generally tracking off outside market forces, there are some analysts who are attempting to play up the prospect of developing tightness in the silver market and that might be helping silver to generally outperform the gold market. However, classic fundamental analysts have to be disappointed with the sharp slide in US new home sales readings in the prior trading session. Furthermore, it would also seem like silver will have to continue to deal with the threat of further debt related turmoil in Greece. Some traders are suggesting that regaining the $16.00 level overnight hints at an improvement in sentiment toward silver, while others suggest that more slack US economic readings this morning could put the bear camp right back in control of silver prices. We can't throw off the bearish view toward silver, even if the silver market is showing signs of holding up better than the gold market. In fact, since we maintain a generally bullish view toward the Dollar and we also acknowledge the lingering weakness in the US economy, it would seem like most roads look to lead silver prices lower.