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Global Strategy


Equity Research                Asia                                                                 Sector Strategy

May 30, 2012
                               O&G Weekly: Beijing feedback
S&P 2012 GDP ESTIMATES:             Potential product price cut in June? WTI, Brent and Dubai all fell between
China: 7.7%-8.2%                     4% and 6% from May 9 - 29, higher than the 4% threshold required for the
Hong Kong: 2.5%-3.0%                 NDRC to declare a change in product prices in China, although we have yet
India: 6.8%-7.3%                     to exceed the 22-working day period requirement in this case. Should oil
Indonesia: 6.0%-6.5%                 prices remain at current levels, potentially we could see a cut in oil prices of
Japan: 1.5%-2.0%                     between CNY300/ton-CNY350/ton as early as the second week of June. While
Korea: 2.8%-3.3%                     the State Council has a good opportunity to introduce further reform in the
Malaysia: 4.4%-4.9%                  product pricing mechanism in China given weak crude oil prices, based on
Singapore: 2.0%-2.5%                 our recent meetings in Beijing, we think this is unlikely in the short-term, as
Taiwan: 2.3%-2.8%                    the government’s focus is likely to be on stability ahead of the Congress by
Thailand: 3.5%-4.0%                  end 2012.
U.S.: 2.1%
Eurozone: 0.0%                      A more difficult 2Q12 for the integrateds? Even if we do not see a cut in
                                     refined product prices in June, we expect 2Q12 to be a more difficult quarter
2012 INDEX TARGETS:                  for both PetroChina and Sinopec. May 9’s CNY330/ton and CNY310/ton cut
S&P 500: 1,450                       for gasoline and diesel comes at a time when the refiners are facing higher-
S&P Euro 350: 1,170                  priced April crude. Hence, we expect refining margin to be under pressure
S&P Asia 50: 3,500                   for 2Q12. Further, the chemical sector should also see bottomline pressure,
                                     as prices have weakened in May, after strengthening in April, following weak
                                     global export demand and also weaker Chinese economic growth prospects.


                                    Natural gas reform is a long-term issue. Feedback from PetroChina
                                     indicate that the impact of the gas pricing trials announced in early 2012 is
                                     limited for the company, given it only supplies less than 2 bln cu m of gas to
                                     Guangdong and Guangxi, or less than 3% of its domestic production. We
Energy                               think it unlikely that the gas pricing formula will be rolled out in one swoop;
                                     rather, we believe gas prices will be adjusted gradually on a province by
Oil & Gas                            province basis, with poorer provinces to see a slower rate of adjustment. In
                                     the meantime, we expect PetroChina may record losses in 2H12 for its
Overweight                           natural gas business as higher-priced imported gas increases. 1Q12 losses
                                     from the sale of imported gas amounted to CNY10.2 bln.


                                    Offshore costs remain sticky. While onshore China’s lifting costs appear to
                                     be growing at a manageable, single-digit pace (especially in CNY terms),
                                     offshore per bbl lifting costs appear to remain sticky, with CNOOC Ltd
Ahmad Abdul-Halim, CFA               expecting 20%+ higher YoY for 2012, and it does not expect industry costs to
Equity Analyst
                                     trend down in the near future, despite the weakness in oil prices. Sister
                                     company and rig owner COSL also confirmed this, and mentioned that
                                     labour costs are actually increasing, especially for its European operations.


                                    Stay Overweight. We retain our Overweight call on the sector, and view the
                                     current weakness as a buying opportunity for a potentially stronger
                                     environment in 2H11. Our top pick remains CNOOC Ltd at 5-STARS (Strong
                                     Buy).




Standard & Poor’s              This report is for information purposes and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security.
                               Neither Standard & Poor’s nor any other party guarantees its accuracy or makes warranties regarding results
Equity Research Services
                               from its usage. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission. Copyright © 2012. All required
30 Cecil Street
                               disclosures and analyst certification appears on the last 3 pages of this report. Additional information is
Prudential Tower, 17th Floor
                               available on request.
Singapore, 049712
May 30, 2012                               Global Strategy




                                                                                                                                                     2


 Select Integrated Oil & Gas and E&P Price Performance and Key Capital IQ Consensus Ratios as at May 30, 2012

                                                                                         Price Performance          PER (x)          PAT Growth
                                                                              Market
                                                   Trading                  Cap (USD
 Company Name                         CIQ Ticker   Ccy          Share Price      mln)   1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths FY2012 FY2013 FY2012 FY2013
 Integrateds
 Exxon Mobil Corporation              NYSE:XOM     USD               81.93   383,118 -4.8% -5.3%      6.5%         9.9x       9.2x -6.5%      4.5%
 PetroChina Co. Ltd.                  SEHK:857     HKD               10.28   272,754 -11.7% -12.4%    6.5%         9.8x       9.1x 18.2%      6.1%
 Royal Dutch Shell plc                LSE:RDSA     GBP               20.15   203,491 -7.9% -11.9% -5.9%            6.9x       6.4x -9.4%      6.6%
 Chevron Corporation                  NYSE:CVX     USD              100.24   197,741 -5.6% -8.1%      2.9%         7.5x       7.3x -1.9%      0.9%
 BP plc                               LSE:BP.      GBP                4.07   121,019 -8.8% -17.4% -7.3%            6.0x       5.6x -19.2%     5.0%
 China Petroleum & Chemical Corp.     SEHK:386     HKD                7.18    90,574 -12.4% -19.2% -10.5%          6.7x       6.1x   1.2%    13.2%
 ConocoPhillips                       NYSE:COP     USD               53.27    67,363 -26.0% -30.4% -21.8%          7.2x       6.6x -27.1%     7.2%
 PTT Public Co. Ltd.                  SET:PTT      THB              313.00    28,207 -9.0% -13.8%     4.3%         7.4x       6.7x 11.4%     14.2%
 Average                                                                            -10.79% -14.82% -3.15%         7.7x       7.1x -4.2%      7.2%

 E&Ps
 CNOOC Ltd.                           SEHK:883     HKD               14.72     84,646 -9.6% -17.3%     4.4%        7.5x        7.5x   0.3%    0.3%
 Statoil ASA                          OB:STL       NOK              140.10     74,177 -8.4% -12.4% -2.2%           7.7x        7.4x -27.2%    1.0%
 Suncor Energy Inc.                   TSX:SU       CAD               29.19     44,482 -7.7% -18.1% -0.5%           8.4x        7.4x 21.9%    16.1%
 Apache Corp.                         NYSE:APA     USD               84.04     32,846 -11.5% -22.1% -9.6%          6.9x        6.3x   5.5%   11.8%
 Anadarko Petroleum Corporation       NYSE:APC     USD               64.45     32,197 -12.7% -23.4% -16.0%        16.1x       12.1x    NM    27.6%
 Woodside Petroleum Ltd.              ASX:WPL      AUD               32.48     26,356 -5.7% -12.8% -2.6%          13.7x       11.5x 31.0%    20.8%
 PTT E&P PCL                          SET:PTTEP    THB              157.00     16,445 -10.3% -14.9%    1.0%        9.3x        7.6x 22.6%    23.8%
 Hess Corporation                     NYSE:HES     USD               47.42     16,006 -8.0% -27.0% -17.4%          7.4x        6.1x 29.3%    22.6%
 Average                                                                              -9.23% -18.49% -5.38%        9.6x        7.7x 11.9%    15.5%

                                                        EV/EBITDA                 PBV           ROE        Gross Margin   Div Yield
 Company Name                                       FY2012      FY2013        FY2012 FY2013 FY2012 FY2013 FY2012 FY2013 FY2012 FY2013
 Integrateds
 Exxon Mobil Corporation              NYSE:XOM           4.4x         4.2x       2.3x    2.1x   22.6%   21.6%   42.70%    44.30%    2.56%    2.76%
 PetroChina Co. Ltd.                  SEHK:857           5.7x         5.3x       1.4x    1.3x   14.6%   14.6%   42.30%    47.05%    4.54%    4.94%
 Royal Dutch Shell plc                LSE:RDSA           3.5x         3.3x       1.0x    0.9x   16.1%   15.3%       N/A       N/A   5.38%    5.58%
 Chevron Corporation                  NYSE:CVX           3.1x         3.1x       1.4x    1.3x   20.4%   18.5%   44.30%    45.90%    3.49%    3.62%
 BP plc                               LSE:BP.            3.4x         3.4x       1.0x    0.9x   17.4%   16.7%   18.80%    19.70%    5.04%    5.55%
 China Petroleum & Chemical Corp.     SEHK:386           4.5x         4.1x       1.0x    0.9x   15.2%   14.8%   16.89%    19.47%    4.63%    5.06%
 ConocoPhillips                       NYSE:COP           3.8x         3.6x       1.1x    1.0x   13.3%   14.3%   27.30%    28.60%    5.02%    5.27%
 PTT Public Co. Ltd.                  SET:PTT            5.3x         4.8x       1.4x    1.2x   19.8%   19.3%    9.23%    10.19%    4.41%    5.01%
 Average                                                 4.2x         4.0x       1.3x    1.2x   17.4%   16.9%   28.79%    30.74%    4.38%    4.72%

 E&Ps
 CNOOC Ltd.                           SEHK:883           3.7x         3.7x       1.7x    1.5x   24.7%   21.0%   62.67%    61.45%    4.09%    4.34%
 Statoil ASA                          OB:STL             1.8x         1.8x       1.4x    1.3x   19.4%   18.0%   47.38%    46.07%    4.85%    5.06%
 Suncor Energy Inc.                   TSX:SU             4.3x         3.8x       1.0x    0.9x   13.3%   13.8%   60.80%    62.60%    1.68%    1.85%
 Apache Corp.                         NYSE:APA           3.1x         2.9x       1.0x    0.9x   15.7%   15.2%   79.30%        N/A   0.78%    0.78%
 Anadarko Petroleum Corporation       NYSE:APC           4.7x         4.3x       1.5x    1.3x   10.6%   11.6%   71.30%        N/A   0.56%    0.56%
 Woodside Petroleum Ltd.              ASX:WPL            7.8x         6.7x       1.8x    1.7x   14.8%   15.6%   74.25%    74.30%    3.80%    4.38%
 PTT E&P PCL                          SET:PTTEP          4.3x         3.5x       2.1x    1.8x   24.9%   25.4%   53.26%    54.44%    4.17%    5.10%
 Hess Corporation                     NYSE:HES           2.9x         2.6x       0.8x    0.7x   11.2%   11.6%   31.60%    33.50%    0.88%    0.88%
 Average                                                 4.1x         3.7x       1.4x    1.2x   16.8%   16.5%   60.07%    55.39%    2.60%    2.87%
 Source: S&P Capital IQ




                                           Standard & P oo r’s                                                            Equ ity Research
May 30, 2012                                                   Global Strategy




                                                                                            S&P Capital IQ Equity Research – S&P Capital IQ Equity Research U.S. includes
Glossary                                                                                    Standard & Poor’s Investment Advisory Services LLC; Standard & Poor’s Equity
                                                                                            Research Services Europe includes McGraw-Hill Financial Research Europe Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                 3

                                                                                            trading as Standard & Poor’s; Standard & Poor’s Equity Research Services Asia

S&P STARS     - Since January 1, 1987, S&P Capital IQ Equity Research has ranked a          includes McGraw-Hill Financial Singapore Pte. Limited’s offices in Singapore,

universe of U.S. common stocks, ADRs (American Depositary Receipts), and ADSs               Standard & Poor’s Investment Advisory Services (HK) Limited in Hong Kong,

(American Depositary Shares) based on a given equity’s potential for future                 Standard & Poor’s Malaysia Sdn Bhd, and Standard & Poor’s Information Services

performance. Similarly, S&P Capital IQ Equity Research has used STARS®                      (Australia) Pty Ltd.

methodology to rank Asian and European equities since June 30, 2002. Under
                                                                                            Abbreviations Used in S&P Capital IQ Equity Research Reports
proprietary STARS (STock Appreciation Ranking System), S&P equity analysts rank
                                                                                            CAGR- Compound Annual Growth Rate
equities according to their individual forecast of an equity’s future total return
                                                                                            CAPEX- Capital Expenditures
potential versus the expected total return of a relevant benchmark (e.g., a regional
                                                                                            CY- Calendar Year
index (S&P Asia 50 Index, S&P Europe 350® Index or S&P 500® Index)), based on a
                                                                                            DCF- Discounted Cash Flow
12-month time horizon. STARS was designed to meet the needs of investors looking
                                                                                            EBIT- Earnings Before Interest and Taxes
to put their investment decisions in perspective. Data used to assist in determining
                                                                                            EBITDA- Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization
the STARS ranking may be the result of the analyst’s own models as well as internal
                                                                                            EPS- Earnings Per Share
proprietary models resulting from dynamic data inputs.
                                                                                            EV- Enterprise Value

S&P Quality Rankings (also known as S&P Earnings & Dividend Rankings)-                      FCF- Free Cash Flow

Growth and stability of earnings and dividends are deemed key elements in                   FFO- Funds From Operations

establishing S&P’s earnings and dividend rankings for common stocks, which are              FY- Fiscal Year

designed to capsulize the nature of this record in a single symbol. It should be noted,     P/E- Price/Earnings

however, that the process also takes into consideration certain adjustments and             PEG Ratio- P/E-to-Growth Ratio

modifications deemed desirable in establishing such rankings. The final score for           PV- Present Value

each stock is measured against a scoring matrix determined by analysis of the scores        R&D- Research & Development

of a large and representative sample of stocks. The range of scores in the array of         ROE- Return on Equity

this sample has been aligned with the following ladder of rankings:                         ROI- Return on Investment
                                                                                            ROIC- Return on Invested Capital
A+ Highest                B+ Average                C Lowest                                ROA- Return on Assets
A High                    B Below Average           D In Reorganization                     SG&A- Selling, General & Administrative Expenses
A- Above Average          B- Lower                  NR Not Ranked                           WACC- Weighted Average Cost of Capital

S&P Issuer Credit Rating     - A Standard & Poor’s Issuer Credit Rating is a current
                                                                                            Dividends on American Depository Receipts (ADRs) and American Depository
opinion of an obligor’s overall financial capacity (its creditworthiness) to pay its
                                                                                            Shares (ADSs) are net of taxes (paid in the country of origin).
financial obligations. This opinion focuses on the obligor’s capacity and willingness
to meet its financial commitments as they come due. It does not apply to any specific
financial obligation, as it does not take into account the nature of and provisions of
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legality and enforceability of the obligation. In addition, it does not take into account
the creditworthiness of the guarantors, insurers, or other forms of credit
enhancement on the obligation.
                                                                                            Required Disclosures
S&P Capital IQ EPS Estimates – S&P Capital IQ earnings per share (EPS) estimates            In contrast to the qualitative STARS recommendations covered in this report, which
reflect analyst projections of future EPS from continuing operations, and generally         are determined and assigned by S&P Capital IQ equity analysts, S&P’s quantitative
exclude various items that are viewed as special, non-recurring, or extraordinary.          evaluations are derived from S&P’s proprietary Fair Value quantitative model. In
Also, S&P Capital IQ EPS estimates reflect either forecasts of S&P Capital IQ equity        particular, the Fair Value Ranking methodology is a relative ranking methodology,
analysts; or, the consensus (average) EPS estimate, which are independently                 whereas the STARS methodology is not. Because the Fair Value model and the
compiled by Capital IQ, a data provider to S&P Capital IQ Equity Research. Among            STARS methodology reflect different criteria, assumptions and analytical methods,
the items typically excluded from EPS estimates are asset sale gains; impairment,           quantitative evaluations may at times differ from (or even contradict) an equity
restructuring or merger-related charges; legal and insurance settlements; in process        analyst’s STARS recommendations. As a quantitative model, Fair Value relies on
research and development expenses; gains or losses on the extinguishment of debt;           history and consensus estimates and does not introduce an element of subjectivity
the cumulative effect of accounting changes; and earnings related to operations that        as can be the case with equity analysts in assigning STARS recommendations.
have been classified by the company as discontinued. The inclusion of some items,
such as stock option expense and recurring types of other charges, may vary, and
depend on such factors as industry practice, analyst judgment, and the extent to
                                                                                            S&P Global STARS Distribution
which some types of data is disclosed by companies.                                         In North America
                                                                                            As of March 31, 2012, research analysts at S&P Capital IQ Equity Research North
S&P Core Earnings     – S&P Capital IQ Core Earnings is a uniform methodology for           America recommended 34.5% of issuers with buy recommendations, 57.9% with
adjusting operating earnings by focusing on a company's after-tax earnings                  hold recommendations and 7.6% with sell recommendations.
generated from its principal businesses. Included in the S&P Capital IQ definition are
                                                                                            In Europe
employee stock option grant expenses, pension costs, restructuring charges from
                                                                                            As of March 31, 2012, research analysts at S&P Capital IQ Equity Research Europe
ongoing operations, write-downs of depreciable or amortizable operating assets,             recommended 30.1% of issuers with buy recommendations, 49.4% with hold
purchased research and development, M&A related expenses and unrealized                     recommendations and 20.5% with sell recommendations.
gains/losses from hedging activities. Excluded from the definition are pension gains,
impairment of goodwill charges, gains or losses from asset sales, reversal of prior-        In Asia
                                                                                            As of March 31, 2012, research analysts at S&P Capital IQ Equity Research Asia
year charges and provision from litigation or insurance settlements.                        recommended 35.9% of issuers with buy recommendations, 54.3% with hold
                                                                                            recommendations and 9.8% with sell recommendations.
S&P 12 Month Target Price – The S&P Capital IQ equity analyst’s projection of the
market price a given security will command 12 months hence, based on a                      Globally
combination of intrinsic, relative, and private market valuation metrics, including S&P     As of March 31, 2012, research analysts at S&P Capital IQ Equity Research globally
                                                                                            recommended 34.0% of issuers with buy recommendations, 56.3% with hold
Fair Value.
                                                                                            recommendations and 9.7% with sell recommendations.


                                                               Standard & Poor’s                                                                        Equ ity Research
May 30, 2012                                                    Global Strategy




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                                                                 Standard & Poor’s                                                                           Equ ity Research
May 30, 2012                                                       Global Strategy




particular person. Advice should be sought from a financial adviser regarding the
suitability of an investment, taking into account the specific investment objectives,                                 5
financial   situation   or   particular    needs   of   any    person   in    receipt   of   the
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                                                                   Standard & Poor’s               Equ ity Research
May 30, 2012   Global Strategy




               This page intentionally left blank            6




               Standard & Poor’s           Equity Research

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Energy 120530

  • 1. Global Strategy Equity Research Asia Sector Strategy May 30, 2012 O&G Weekly: Beijing feedback S&P 2012 GDP ESTIMATES:  Potential product price cut in June? WTI, Brent and Dubai all fell between China: 7.7%-8.2% 4% and 6% from May 9 - 29, higher than the 4% threshold required for the Hong Kong: 2.5%-3.0% NDRC to declare a change in product prices in China, although we have yet India: 6.8%-7.3% to exceed the 22-working day period requirement in this case. Should oil Indonesia: 6.0%-6.5% prices remain at current levels, potentially we could see a cut in oil prices of Japan: 1.5%-2.0% between CNY300/ton-CNY350/ton as early as the second week of June. While Korea: 2.8%-3.3% the State Council has a good opportunity to introduce further reform in the Malaysia: 4.4%-4.9% product pricing mechanism in China given weak crude oil prices, based on Singapore: 2.0%-2.5% our recent meetings in Beijing, we think this is unlikely in the short-term, as Taiwan: 2.3%-2.8% the government’s focus is likely to be on stability ahead of the Congress by Thailand: 3.5%-4.0% end 2012. U.S.: 2.1% Eurozone: 0.0%  A more difficult 2Q12 for the integrateds? Even if we do not see a cut in refined product prices in June, we expect 2Q12 to be a more difficult quarter 2012 INDEX TARGETS: for both PetroChina and Sinopec. May 9’s CNY330/ton and CNY310/ton cut S&P 500: 1,450 for gasoline and diesel comes at a time when the refiners are facing higher- S&P Euro 350: 1,170 priced April crude. Hence, we expect refining margin to be under pressure S&P Asia 50: 3,500 for 2Q12. Further, the chemical sector should also see bottomline pressure, as prices have weakened in May, after strengthening in April, following weak global export demand and also weaker Chinese economic growth prospects.  Natural gas reform is a long-term issue. Feedback from PetroChina indicate that the impact of the gas pricing trials announced in early 2012 is limited for the company, given it only supplies less than 2 bln cu m of gas to Guangdong and Guangxi, or less than 3% of its domestic production. We Energy think it unlikely that the gas pricing formula will be rolled out in one swoop; rather, we believe gas prices will be adjusted gradually on a province by Oil & Gas province basis, with poorer provinces to see a slower rate of adjustment. In the meantime, we expect PetroChina may record losses in 2H12 for its Overweight natural gas business as higher-priced imported gas increases. 1Q12 losses from the sale of imported gas amounted to CNY10.2 bln.  Offshore costs remain sticky. While onshore China’s lifting costs appear to be growing at a manageable, single-digit pace (especially in CNY terms), offshore per bbl lifting costs appear to remain sticky, with CNOOC Ltd Ahmad Abdul-Halim, CFA expecting 20%+ higher YoY for 2012, and it does not expect industry costs to Equity Analyst trend down in the near future, despite the weakness in oil prices. Sister company and rig owner COSL also confirmed this, and mentioned that labour costs are actually increasing, especially for its European operations.  Stay Overweight. We retain our Overweight call on the sector, and view the current weakness as a buying opportunity for a potentially stronger environment in 2H11. Our top pick remains CNOOC Ltd at 5-STARS (Strong Buy). Standard & Poor’s This report is for information purposes and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Neither Standard & Poor’s nor any other party guarantees its accuracy or makes warranties regarding results Equity Research Services from its usage. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission. Copyright © 2012. All required 30 Cecil Street disclosures and analyst certification appears on the last 3 pages of this report. Additional information is Prudential Tower, 17th Floor available on request. Singapore, 049712
  • 2. May 30, 2012 Global Strategy 2 Select Integrated Oil & Gas and E&P Price Performance and Key Capital IQ Consensus Ratios as at May 30, 2012 Price Performance PER (x) PAT Growth Market Trading Cap (USD Company Name CIQ Ticker Ccy Share Price mln) 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths FY2012 FY2013 FY2012 FY2013 Integrateds Exxon Mobil Corporation NYSE:XOM USD 81.93 383,118 -4.8% -5.3% 6.5% 9.9x 9.2x -6.5% 4.5% PetroChina Co. Ltd. SEHK:857 HKD 10.28 272,754 -11.7% -12.4% 6.5% 9.8x 9.1x 18.2% 6.1% Royal Dutch Shell plc LSE:RDSA GBP 20.15 203,491 -7.9% -11.9% -5.9% 6.9x 6.4x -9.4% 6.6% Chevron Corporation NYSE:CVX USD 100.24 197,741 -5.6% -8.1% 2.9% 7.5x 7.3x -1.9% 0.9% BP plc LSE:BP. GBP 4.07 121,019 -8.8% -17.4% -7.3% 6.0x 5.6x -19.2% 5.0% China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. SEHK:386 HKD 7.18 90,574 -12.4% -19.2% -10.5% 6.7x 6.1x 1.2% 13.2% ConocoPhillips NYSE:COP USD 53.27 67,363 -26.0% -30.4% -21.8% 7.2x 6.6x -27.1% 7.2% PTT Public Co. Ltd. SET:PTT THB 313.00 28,207 -9.0% -13.8% 4.3% 7.4x 6.7x 11.4% 14.2% Average -10.79% -14.82% -3.15% 7.7x 7.1x -4.2% 7.2% E&Ps CNOOC Ltd. SEHK:883 HKD 14.72 84,646 -9.6% -17.3% 4.4% 7.5x 7.5x 0.3% 0.3% Statoil ASA OB:STL NOK 140.10 74,177 -8.4% -12.4% -2.2% 7.7x 7.4x -27.2% 1.0% Suncor Energy Inc. TSX:SU CAD 29.19 44,482 -7.7% -18.1% -0.5% 8.4x 7.4x 21.9% 16.1% Apache Corp. NYSE:APA USD 84.04 32,846 -11.5% -22.1% -9.6% 6.9x 6.3x 5.5% 11.8% Anadarko Petroleum Corporation NYSE:APC USD 64.45 32,197 -12.7% -23.4% -16.0% 16.1x 12.1x NM 27.6% Woodside Petroleum Ltd. ASX:WPL AUD 32.48 26,356 -5.7% -12.8% -2.6% 13.7x 11.5x 31.0% 20.8% PTT E&P PCL SET:PTTEP THB 157.00 16,445 -10.3% -14.9% 1.0% 9.3x 7.6x 22.6% 23.8% Hess Corporation NYSE:HES USD 47.42 16,006 -8.0% -27.0% -17.4% 7.4x 6.1x 29.3% 22.6% Average -9.23% -18.49% -5.38% 9.6x 7.7x 11.9% 15.5% EV/EBITDA PBV ROE Gross Margin Div Yield Company Name FY2012 FY2013 FY2012 FY2013 FY2012 FY2013 FY2012 FY2013 FY2012 FY2013 Integrateds Exxon Mobil Corporation NYSE:XOM 4.4x 4.2x 2.3x 2.1x 22.6% 21.6% 42.70% 44.30% 2.56% 2.76% PetroChina Co. Ltd. SEHK:857 5.7x 5.3x 1.4x 1.3x 14.6% 14.6% 42.30% 47.05% 4.54% 4.94% Royal Dutch Shell plc LSE:RDSA 3.5x 3.3x 1.0x 0.9x 16.1% 15.3% N/A N/A 5.38% 5.58% Chevron Corporation NYSE:CVX 3.1x 3.1x 1.4x 1.3x 20.4% 18.5% 44.30% 45.90% 3.49% 3.62% BP plc LSE:BP. 3.4x 3.4x 1.0x 0.9x 17.4% 16.7% 18.80% 19.70% 5.04% 5.55% China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. SEHK:386 4.5x 4.1x 1.0x 0.9x 15.2% 14.8% 16.89% 19.47% 4.63% 5.06% ConocoPhillips NYSE:COP 3.8x 3.6x 1.1x 1.0x 13.3% 14.3% 27.30% 28.60% 5.02% 5.27% PTT Public Co. Ltd. SET:PTT 5.3x 4.8x 1.4x 1.2x 19.8% 19.3% 9.23% 10.19% 4.41% 5.01% Average 4.2x 4.0x 1.3x 1.2x 17.4% 16.9% 28.79% 30.74% 4.38% 4.72% E&Ps CNOOC Ltd. SEHK:883 3.7x 3.7x 1.7x 1.5x 24.7% 21.0% 62.67% 61.45% 4.09% 4.34% Statoil ASA OB:STL 1.8x 1.8x 1.4x 1.3x 19.4% 18.0% 47.38% 46.07% 4.85% 5.06% Suncor Energy Inc. TSX:SU 4.3x 3.8x 1.0x 0.9x 13.3% 13.8% 60.80% 62.60% 1.68% 1.85% Apache Corp. NYSE:APA 3.1x 2.9x 1.0x 0.9x 15.7% 15.2% 79.30% N/A 0.78% 0.78% Anadarko Petroleum Corporation NYSE:APC 4.7x 4.3x 1.5x 1.3x 10.6% 11.6% 71.30% N/A 0.56% 0.56% Woodside Petroleum Ltd. ASX:WPL 7.8x 6.7x 1.8x 1.7x 14.8% 15.6% 74.25% 74.30% 3.80% 4.38% PTT E&P PCL SET:PTTEP 4.3x 3.5x 2.1x 1.8x 24.9% 25.4% 53.26% 54.44% 4.17% 5.10% Hess Corporation NYSE:HES 2.9x 2.6x 0.8x 0.7x 11.2% 11.6% 31.60% 33.50% 0.88% 0.88% Average 4.1x 3.7x 1.4x 1.2x 16.8% 16.5% 60.07% 55.39% 2.60% 2.87% Source: S&P Capital IQ Standard & P oo r’s Equ ity Research
  • 3. May 30, 2012 Global Strategy S&P Capital IQ Equity Research – S&P Capital IQ Equity Research U.S. includes Glossary Standard & Poor’s Investment Advisory Services LLC; Standard & Poor’s Equity Research Services Europe includes McGraw-Hill Financial Research Europe Limited 3 trading as Standard & Poor’s; Standard & Poor’s Equity Research Services Asia S&P STARS - Since January 1, 1987, S&P Capital IQ Equity Research has ranked a includes McGraw-Hill Financial Singapore Pte. Limited’s offices in Singapore, universe of U.S. common stocks, ADRs (American Depositary Receipts), and ADSs Standard & Poor’s Investment Advisory Services (HK) Limited in Hong Kong, (American Depositary Shares) based on a given equity’s potential for future Standard & Poor’s Malaysia Sdn Bhd, and Standard & Poor’s Information Services performance. Similarly, S&P Capital IQ Equity Research has used STARS® (Australia) Pty Ltd. methodology to rank Asian and European equities since June 30, 2002. Under Abbreviations Used in S&P Capital IQ Equity Research Reports proprietary STARS (STock Appreciation Ranking System), S&P equity analysts rank CAGR- Compound Annual Growth Rate equities according to their individual forecast of an equity’s future total return CAPEX- Capital Expenditures potential versus the expected total return of a relevant benchmark (e.g., a regional CY- Calendar Year index (S&P Asia 50 Index, S&P Europe 350® Index or S&P 500® Index)), based on a DCF- Discounted Cash Flow 12-month time horizon. STARS was designed to meet the needs of investors looking EBIT- Earnings Before Interest and Taxes to put their investment decisions in perspective. Data used to assist in determining EBITDA- Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization the STARS ranking may be the result of the analyst’s own models as well as internal EPS- Earnings Per Share proprietary models resulting from dynamic data inputs. EV- Enterprise Value S&P Quality Rankings (also known as S&P Earnings & Dividend Rankings)- FCF- Free Cash Flow Growth and stability of earnings and dividends are deemed key elements in FFO- Funds From Operations establishing S&P’s earnings and dividend rankings for common stocks, which are FY- Fiscal Year designed to capsulize the nature of this record in a single symbol. It should be noted, P/E- Price/Earnings however, that the process also takes into consideration certain adjustments and PEG Ratio- P/E-to-Growth Ratio modifications deemed desirable in establishing such rankings. The final score for PV- Present Value each stock is measured against a scoring matrix determined by analysis of the scores R&D- Research & Development of a large and representative sample of stocks. The range of scores in the array of ROE- Return on Equity this sample has been aligned with the following ladder of rankings: ROI- Return on Investment ROIC- Return on Invested Capital A+ Highest B+ Average C Lowest ROA- Return on Assets A High B Below Average D In Reorganization SG&A- Selling, General & Administrative Expenses A- Above Average B- Lower NR Not Ranked WACC- Weighted Average Cost of Capital S&P Issuer Credit Rating - A Standard & Poor’s Issuer Credit Rating is a current Dividends on American Depository Receipts (ADRs) and American Depository opinion of an obligor’s overall financial capacity (its creditworthiness) to pay its Shares (ADSs) are net of taxes (paid in the country of origin). financial obligations. This opinion focuses on the obligor’s capacity and willingness to meet its financial commitments as they come due. It does not apply to any specific financial obligation, as it does not take into account the nature of and provisions of the obligation, its standing in bankruptcy or liquidation, statutory preferences, or the Disclosures/Disclaimers legality and enforceability of the obligation. In addition, it does not take into account the creditworthiness of the guarantors, insurers, or other forms of credit enhancement on the obligation. Required Disclosures S&P Capital IQ EPS Estimates – S&P Capital IQ earnings per share (EPS) estimates In contrast to the qualitative STARS recommendations covered in this report, which reflect analyst projections of future EPS from continuing operations, and generally are determined and assigned by S&P Capital IQ equity analysts, S&P’s quantitative exclude various items that are viewed as special, non-recurring, or extraordinary. evaluations are derived from S&P’s proprietary Fair Value quantitative model. In Also, S&P Capital IQ EPS estimates reflect either forecasts of S&P Capital IQ equity particular, the Fair Value Ranking methodology is a relative ranking methodology, analysts; or, the consensus (average) EPS estimate, which are independently whereas the STARS methodology is not. Because the Fair Value model and the compiled by Capital IQ, a data provider to S&P Capital IQ Equity Research. Among STARS methodology reflect different criteria, assumptions and analytical methods, the items typically excluded from EPS estimates are asset sale gains; impairment, quantitative evaluations may at times differ from (or even contradict) an equity restructuring or merger-related charges; legal and insurance settlements; in process analyst’s STARS recommendations. As a quantitative model, Fair Value relies on research and development expenses; gains or losses on the extinguishment of debt; history and consensus estimates and does not introduce an element of subjectivity the cumulative effect of accounting changes; and earnings related to operations that as can be the case with equity analysts in assigning STARS recommendations. have been classified by the company as discontinued. The inclusion of some items, such as stock option expense and recurring types of other charges, may vary, and depend on such factors as industry practice, analyst judgment, and the extent to S&P Global STARS Distribution which some types of data is disclosed by companies. In North America As of March 31, 2012, research analysts at S&P Capital IQ Equity Research North S&P Core Earnings – S&P Capital IQ Core Earnings is a uniform methodology for America recommended 34.5% of issuers with buy recommendations, 57.9% with adjusting operating earnings by focusing on a company's after-tax earnings hold recommendations and 7.6% with sell recommendations. generated from its principal businesses. Included in the S&P Capital IQ definition are In Europe employee stock option grant expenses, pension costs, restructuring charges from As of March 31, 2012, research analysts at S&P Capital IQ Equity Research Europe ongoing operations, write-downs of depreciable or amortizable operating assets, recommended 30.1% of issuers with buy recommendations, 49.4% with hold purchased research and development, M&A related expenses and unrealized recommendations and 20.5% with sell recommendations. gains/losses from hedging activities. Excluded from the definition are pension gains, impairment of goodwill charges, gains or losses from asset sales, reversal of prior- In Asia As of March 31, 2012, research analysts at S&P Capital IQ Equity Research Asia year charges and provision from litigation or insurance settlements. recommended 35.9% of issuers with buy recommendations, 54.3% with hold recommendations and 9.8% with sell recommendations. S&P 12 Month Target Price – The S&P Capital IQ equity analyst’s projection of the market price a given security will command 12 months hence, based on a Globally combination of intrinsic, relative, and private market valuation metrics, including S&P As of March 31, 2012, research analysts at S&P Capital IQ Equity Research globally recommended 34.0% of issuers with buy recommendations, 56.3% with hold Fair Value. recommendations and 9.7% with sell recommendations. Standard & Poor’s Equ ity Research
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