Climate change nepal

Climate Change in Nepali Agriculture:
Policy and Practice
Arun GC
Agriculture Extension Officer
Ministry of Agricultural Development
Country Member, Economics of Climate Change Adaptation
1Arun GC gcarun88@gmail.com

TABLEOF
CONTENTS
01 – COUNTRY BACKGROUND
1.1 Geography
1.2 Climate
1.3 Nepalese Agriculture
02 – CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY
03 – ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
3.1 Impacts
3.2 Adoptions
04 - CONCLUSION

Background
Area: 147,181 sq.km
Geography: High
Himalaya (17%), Hill
(68%) and Low land
Terai (15%)
Population: 28 million
Water: 6,000+ river,
224 BCM annual runoff;
9,000 CM per capita
Avg. ppt: 1,800 mm (70-85% June
to Sept): Lumle: 5,000 mm and
Jomsom: 250 mm)

5
Background…
Mountain
Region
Hilly Region
Terai Region
8,848 m – Highest
Peak in the World
59 m (average sea
level)
Arun GC gcarun88@gmail.com

Macro-economics of Nepal

Climate of Nepal

Climate of Nepal
y = -0.2801x + 619.57 y = -2.3019x + 4667.9
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
Rainfall(mm)
Year

Climate of Nepal
y = 0.0476x + 19.218
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Temperature(°C)
Year
All Nepal Temperature Trend

Climate of Nepal
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Onsetday(June)
Year
Monsoon onset
May 31
Source: DHM

Climate of Nepal
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Withdrawalday
Year
Monsoon withdrawal
SeptemberOctober
Source: DHM

Highlight of Nepalese Agriculture
31%
69%
Structure of GDP
Agriculture
Non Agriculture
Land Use (‘1000 Ha)
Cultivated Agricultural Land 3,091
Uncultivated Ag. Land 1,030
Forest 5,828
- No of Household (2011) 542,702
- Total Ag Holdings No. 3,831,093
- Irrigated Area
-(2012/13) in Ha 1,368,914
-Mountain 35% 16 Districts
- Hills 42% 36 Districts
- Terai 23% 23 Districts
(Source: Ministry of Agricultural Development, 2015)15Arun GC gcarun88@gmail.com

16
Highlight of Nepalese Agriculture

1992 Signed UNFCCC
1994 Become Party to UNFCCC
2004 Initial National Communication
1996
-
2006
MoE => Focal Point for UNFCCC
Designated National Authority
to promote CDM
 2001 MDG and 2003 SDA
2009 Climate Change Council (25 meb)
2007
-
2009
1. Action plan for Capacity
building
2. Issued CDM project approval
process and procedure
3. NAPA preparation
4. Second National
Communication
5. Strengthening capacity for
managing climate change
2009 Cabinet meeting at Kalapatthar
2010 Climate Change Management
Division in MoE
 NAPA endorsed
 Mountain Alliance Initiative
lunched at COP15
Muti-stakeholder Climate
Change Initiatives Coordination
Committee (MCCICC)
PPCR
Poverty-Env. Initiative (PEI)
2011 Climate Change Policy
 Climate Resilient Planning Tool
 LAPA
Milestones in CC

Climate Change Policy, 2011
As an obligation UNFCC, Climate Change Policy was
endorsed in 2011.
Vision: climate justice, environmental
conservation, human development, and sustainable
development for prosperous society
Goal: to improve livelihoods, mitigating and
adapting climate change, adopting a low-carbon
emissions development

Climate Change Policy, 2011…
Goal Achievement
Climate Change Center in 1 year Not established yet
Initiation of community based local
adaptation (NAPA) through
managing financial resources by
2011
Initiated through NCCSP in
2013 (70 LAPA implemented
and additional 30 prepared)
Preparation of national strategy for
carbon trade in order to benefit from
the CDM by 2012
National strategy not yet
finalized. Few CDM projects in
operation
Formulation of low carbon economic
development strategy by 2014
Drafted
Assessment of losses and benefit
from CC in various geographical
areas and development sectors by
2013

Research Findings
 Due to the country’s steep rugged topography, Nepalese agriculture is one of the most
vulnerable sectors to climate change in South Asia ( (Chalise & Naranpanawa, 2016; Bhandari &
Cai, 2014; Chalise, Maraseni, & Maroulis, 2015).
 The regional climate-model projections show temperature increases of 1.6°C-2.0°C by 2030,
2.3°C-2.9°C by 2050 and 3.4°C-5.0°C by 2080 (Ahmed & Suphachalasai, 2014).
 Increases in temperature are likely to result in erratic precipitation, greater soil erosion and
droughts in the future (Chalise & Naranpanawa, 2016).
 Prolonged droughts could results in rapid evaporation and ultimately the drying of important
water bodies in the mid-eastern parts of Nepal (Gurung & Bhandari, 2009).
 Climatically suitable areas for banana and coffee will expand (Ranjitkar, et al., 2015).
 Increasing yield, noticeable shifts in growing and harvesting of major crops, change in
flowering and fruiting patterns, emergence of new species of tress eg. Uttis (Alnus Nepalenses),
vegetables and fruits was noted in the mountain region (Lama & Devkota, 2009)
 Average annual temperature increased by 0.01°C in the foothills, 0.02°C in the middle
mountains, and 0.04°C in the higher Himalayas, or 1.4-1.7°C increase for country predicted by
the 2030 which is much higher than the mean global rate of predicted increase and problem of
“Himalyan data gap” (Sudmeier-Rieux, Gaillard, Sharma, Dubois, & Jaboyedoff, 2012).
 Adaptation measures reported are : planting trees at water sources, reducing water supply to
livestock, constructing water retention ponds, delaying rice transplantation, reducing vegetable
area, giving up winter crops, adjusting cropping sequences, using hybrid seeds, using chemicals
(Poudel & Duex, 2016) 21Arun GC gcarun88@gmail.com

23
Impact of Climate Change

24
 Change in annual rainfall cycle
 Increased intense rainfall
 increased heavy rainfall (>100 mm/day)
 Increased longer drought
 Increased warmer days and nights
 Glacier lakes are expanding
 Snow and ice are melting

Average % Change
Paddy = -10.81% Wheat = -14.16%
Maize = -19.08 Other Agricultural sector = -14.67

Rice variety : Early: 6; Main Season: 50
Yield: 2.7 T/ha – 10 T/ha: Avg: 5.52 T/ha
Drought Tolerant Var: 6
Yield: 3.5 T/ha – 4.35 T/ha; Avg: 3.79 T/ha
Submerge Var: 2
Yield: 4.5 T/ha – 5 T/ha; Avg: 4.75 T/ha
Stress Tolerant Avg: 4.27T/ha
Attainable yield: 3.42 T/ha; (Stress)
Attainable yield: 8 T/ha (without Stress)
Area: 1.5 Million ha; Production loss: 6.9 Million Ton (current 4.8
Million Tons) 26Arun GC gcarun88@gmail.com

Decision Support System for Agro-Technology Transfer (DSSAT)
Rice:
CO2 : Yield
4C Temp : 3.4% in Terai; 17.8% in Hill ; 36.1% in Mountain
Maiz: Yield
CO2 : 9.0% in Terai; 4.9% in Hill; 15.5% in Mountain
(C4 photosysnthetic pathway-less effect of C02)
Wheat: Yield
CO2 : 41.% in Terai; 24.4% in Hill; 21.2% in Mountain

Autonomous Adaptations
1. Shifting planting date
2. Change in varieties
3. Change in cropping pattern
4. Water conservation practices : Mulching
5. Rainwater harvesting
6. River training
7. Agricultural technologies : Green house
8. Reduced water supply to livestock
9. Reduced vegetable area
10. Give up winter crops
11. Minimum or zero tillage

Conclusion
 Climate change is unavoidable and global but we can
reduce pace of change (anthropogenic )
 Agriculture sector will suffer heavily
 Poor farmers will be front line victim
 Climate change knowledge and public awareness
 Localized assessment is very important
 Bio-physical study of agriculture is limited
 Promotion of Climate Smart Agriculture
 Knowledge sharing and cooperation among nations

References
Ahmed, M., & Suphachalasai, S. (2014). Assessing the Costs of Climate Change and Adapation in South Asia.
Mandaluyong: Asian Development Bank.
Bhandari, J., & Cai, Y. (2014). The impact of climate change on food crop productivity, food prices and food
security in South Asia. Econ.Anal.Policy, 451-465.
Chalise, S., & Naranpanawa, A. (2016). Climate change adapation in agriculture: A computable general
equilibrium analysis of land-use change in Nepal. Land USe Policy, 241-250.
Chalise, S., Maraseni, T., & Maroulis, J. (2015). Adapating to climate variability: the views of peasant farmers
in Nepal. Int. J. Global Warm, 380-394.
Gurung, G., & Bhandari, D. (2009). Integrated approach to climate change adaptation. J. For. Livelihood, 90-
98.
Lama, S., & Devkota, B. (2009). Vulnerability of mountain communities to climate change and adaptation
strategies. Journal of Agriculture and Environment, 65-71.
Poudel, D. D., & Duex, T. W. (2016). Vanishing Springs in Nepalese Mountains: Assessement of water sources,
farmers' perceptions and climate change adaptation. Mountain Research and Development, 35-
46.
Ranjitkar, S., Sujakhu, N., Budhanagar, K., Rimal, S., Xu, J., Merz, J., & Zomer, R. (2015). Projected climate
change impacts on climatic suitablitiy and geographical distribution of banana and coffee
plantation in Nepal. ICRAF Working Paper 204, 1-32.
Sudmeier-Rieux, K., Gaillard, J.-C., Sharma, S., Dubois, J., & Jaboyedoff, M. (2012). Floods, landslides, and
adapting to climate change in Nepal: What role for climate change models? Environment and
Disaster Risk Managment, 119-140.
http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/napa/npl01.pdf
http://climatenepal.org.np/main/index.php
http://www.nepjol.info/index.php/AEJ/article/viewFile/2119/1952?loclang=en_gb

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