1. Brief comments on
coping with the impacts
of a changing climate …
as if the future matters
Michael (Mickey) Glantz
CCB, University of Colorado, Boulder
Asia Pacific Graduates' Youth Forum on
Green Economy
25-29 September 2012, Kathmandu,
Nepal
SEN ICIMOD CCB APN

2. UNEP’s Mission 1972
• “to provide leadership and encourage
partnership in caring for the environment by
inspiring, informing, and enabling nations and
peoples to improve their quality of life
without compromising that of future
generations.”

3. Shouldn’t there be a Hindsight component
to a Foresight Panel?
The Question:
Does environmental history
have a future?
The Answer:
Yes, if we want to know how
we got to this point in time
and to seek better informed
guidance in the face of an
uncertain future.
No, if you think that history
has no chance of repeating
itself.

4. Climate and Inequity
There are also inequities with regard to animals and other living things

5. “All roads lead to Rome”

6. The Challenge: Reaching Every Element of Civil Society

7. Linking or Sinking
link scientific concerns about the future with local societal concerns today
Communicating with civil society
about the importance of awareness
of climate change and its
foreseeable impacts is a central
factor in making climate change
science research findings science
that is usable by society, eg, usable
science

8. We need Social inventions
Ideas and concepts that
change human behavior.

9. Social Invention Examples
http://clairewaghorn.wordpress.com/
The Blue Marble
Global Change
Spaceship Earth
The Space Age Social e-networks

10. Foreseeability: use it as
a qualitative version of probability
• "FORESEEABLE RISK, i.e., risks whose consequences
a person of ordinary prudence would reasonably
expect might occur…
• In tort law… a party's actions may be deemed
negligent only where the injurious consequences of
those actions were foreseeable."
• For example, "established by proof that the actor or
person of reasonable intelligence and prudence,
should reasonably have anticipated danger to others
created by his or her negligent act.“
Focus on AOCs
• "Foreseeability encompasses not only that which Not on Hotspots!
the defendant foresaw, but that which the
defendant ought to have foreseen."
(Gifis, 1991)

11. Decisionmaking under foreseeability:
to run or not to run a stop sign?

12. Make explicit what you mean by adaptation
• UNFCCC: adaptation refers
to climate change related
impacts
– FCCC definition:
"adaptation" refers only
to new actions in
response to climate
changes that are
attributed to greenhouse
gas emissions.
• IPCC: adaptation refers to
any changes

13. Need for a better Understanding of the influences of Seasonality
global warming & “acclimatizing” seasons as we’ve come to expect them
Like ecosystems,
human activities are
also influenced by the
natural flow of the
seasons.
More so by humans,
because they have
expectations about that
flow that really
determine their
responses, good or bad,
to that natural flow.

14. Some living things can’t adapt:
who is responsible to care for them?

15. Adaptation to variability, change, extremes:
no recommendations without statements about ramifications if
recommendations are not followed
Recommendations are
just suggestions.
To increase the chance
they will be
implemented, it is
necessary to identify
the potential
consequences of not
acting on them.

16. We must identify & prepare to mitigate
the downstream impacts of an adaptation
• Adaptation is an on-going process,
not just a one-time event.
• Each adaptive strategy or tactic will
generate its own set of impacts.
• Societies must identify second- and
third-order impacts of adaptation
(downstream impacts).

17. Pay attention to Rates of change
Rates of change are
as important as the
change itself
The future is arriving …
earlier than expected!
The rates are most
likely to capture
political attention than
is the magnitude of
change.

18. 2020 is the new 2050!
Rates of change can be as important as the magnitude of change
Arctic sea ice
extent in 2007
was at a level not
expected to
occur till 2020;
13 years earlier!

19. Focus on Creeping environmental change
X
Focus on creeping changes and rates
of change instead of searching for a
“dread factor” to spark policy
changes.

20. • The Millennium Assessment
calls for ecosystems goods and
services for environmental well
being.
• This suggests that ecosystems
have little value if not of use to
society.
• It should be reversed: Human
goods & services for ecosystems
well being.
• Societies need Ecosystems more
than they need societies.
Human good & services for environmental well being,
and NOT the other way around !

21. Adapting to meet economic wants but not needs:
(decision making, as if the future of others did not matter)
Demise of the Aral Sea, Central Asia (1960-present)

22. Make explicit what you mean by Resilience:
3 variations on a theme
• Ability … to withstand
the consequences.
• Power to recovery
original shape & size.
• Capacity to adapt
without harm.

23. We may not agree on what resilience is,
But we can see what it isn’t !
Dynamite
fishing
in the
Philippines

24. Resilient Adaptation as a “social invention”
• Flexible, shifting interventions
• Plasticity
• Requires innovation
• Requires improvisation
• It attempts to “glimpse” the future
• It brings stability while coping with
changes in resilience

25. Planetary geo-engineering:
While there are many Plan, Bs there is no Planet B

26. Ignorance vs. “Ignore-ance”
what you don’t know (or ignore) can still hurt you
• Ignorance is not
knowing something.
• “Ignore-ance” is
knowing something
and not caring about it
Which one is this?

27. • Ignore-ance: paying attention only
to pieces of information that
support one’s views, wishes or
policies , e.g., “selective inattention

28. There is a need for early warnings about
…
early warning systems

29. Expect climate and other surprises:
some surprises are expectable (eg, foreseeable)
• A key element of “surprise” is the
“unexpected”.
• However, not all ‘surprises’ are
‘unexpected’.
• I was “semi-surprised”,
“almost surprised,”
“hardly surprised,” “a
little surprised,” “sort of
surprised,” “somewhat
surprised”
There are “foreseeable surprises”
Hurricane Katrina 2005, USA

30. 2011: Earthquake, Tsunami, Nuclear meltdown,
nuclear fallout: impact of GHG emissions
This was a complex
humanitarian crisis:
A Quadruple Whammy
Any one of these
events would be a
disaster in its own
right but the
combination was
truly unexpectable,
even outside the
range of a
conceivable scenario

31. Societies are constantly changing:
Climate is not the only thing changing
Shanghai Harbor
1988 2004

32. Dubai in 1990
Dubai in 2007

33. Identify Lessons about environmental “Lessons
learned about lessons learned”
• After each disaster lessons are
identified and reported.
• Similar disasters also end up
with many of the earlier
identified lessons being re-
stated.
• Lessons identified are not
lessons learned.
• The phrase lessons learned is
part of the problem because
people think someone is
applying the lessons but in
reality no one has the
responsibility to do so.

34. Planet Earth is now Global Warming’s “Ground zero”
no place to hide
(b)  In industrial and
agrarian societies
(a)
 On all continents
(c)
 Where humans and
ecosystems meet
 Especially in
Seems governments
vulnerable ecosystems
are choosing option (a)

35. Identify the Bright sides of climate
Governments must focus on
the bright side of climate not
just on its adversities (dark
side). Focus on enhancing
climate-related benefits
•Better seasonal forecasts
•Better use of indigenous local
science and coping
•Better food storage facilities
•Reintroducing the “lost crops”

36. Climate-related ideas …
that demand better understanding
1. Climate-proofing
2. Food security
3. Ground zero
4. Deniers
5. Extremes
6. The verb “to be”
7. Ecosystems goods & services
8. Drivers (of change)
9. Mitigation (of greenhouse gas emissions)
10. Adaptation (to climate change)
11. Geo-engineering
12. Purposely changing the atmosphere’s thermostat

37. My view about these climate-related ideas
1. Climate-proofing --- misleading
2. Food security --- misnomer
3. Ground zero --- misfocused
4. Deniers --- misapplied
5. Extremes --- misdirected
6. The verb “is” --- misused
7. Ecosystems goods & services --- misconception
8. Drivers (of change) --- misdirecting
9. Mitigation (of greenhouse gas emissions) --- misarticulated
10. Adaptation (to climate change) --- misunderstood
11. Geo-engineering --- misadventure
12. Purposely changing the atmosphere’s thermostat --- misguided

38. Why question these climate-related concepts
1. Climate-proofing --- misleading; can’t be totally immune from climate
2. Food security --- misnomer; it’s really a food-insecure world
3. Ground zero --- misfocused; every place sees itself as ground zero
4. Deniers --- misapplied; most skeptics are not deniers
5. Extremes --- misdirected; this overlooks high impact, non-extremes
6. The verb “is” --- misused; can be used to generate ambiguity
7. Ecosystems goods & services --- misconception; ecosystems need
protection
8. Drivers (of change) --- misdirected; underlying causes are as important
as proximate causes or catalysts
9. Mitigation (of greenhouse gas emissions) --- misarticulated; public
defines it as softening not as reducing CO2 emissions
10. Adaptation (to climate change) --- misunderstood; too many definitions
11. Geo-engineering --- misadventure; an attempt to by pass the problem and
avoid taking responsibility
12. Purposely changing the atmosphere’s thermostat --- misguided; cannot
choose a CO2 level to return to in order to pick the climate you want