1. www.akademiya2063.org
Africa Agricultural Trade Outlook Portal
(AfTOP)
2023 AGRODEP Annual Conference
‘Building Resilient African Food Systems amid Health, Conflict and Climate Disruptions’
Kigali, Rwanda | 21-23 March 2023
By
Ismael FOFANA
AKADEMIYA2063
Director, Capacity & Deployment

2. www.akademiya2063.org
Africa Agricultural Trade Outlook Portal (AfTOP)
2023 AGRODEP Annual Conference
‘Building Resilient African Food Systems amid Health, Conflict and Climate Disruptions’
Kigali, Rwanda | 21-23 March 2023
INTRODUCTION

3. www.akademiya2063.org
Rational
Serious disruptions of global food security through
agricultural and food trade and markets
 Russia-Ukraine war
 COVID-19 pandemic
 Climate-related shocks
Objective
Support stakeholders with access to timely and high-quality
data and analytics to guide responses to current and future
trade related shocks.

4. www.akademiya2063.org
Centralized, user-friendly and interactive online platform that
brings high-quality information on African trade of agricultural
and food commodities on four main components:
 Global trade outlook focusing on developments in global trade and
markets
 Regional trade outlook focusing on dynamics in regional trade and
markets
 Africa Agricultural Trade Monitor (AATM) on current trade
performance and issues
 African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement on
implementation issues
What is AfTOP?

5. www.akademiya2063.org
Contribution of AfTOP?
 Provide on a regular basis outlooks of global commodity markets
conditions and implications on African economies.
 Guide decision making and responses to external trade shocks.
 Facilitate access to data and resources related to key trade policy
interventions.
 Facilitate private-sector partnerships and business transaction
across countries and value chains by providing relevant information.

6. www.akademiya2063.org
AKADEMIYA2063 Past Experiences on Trade Analytics
 The Africa Agricultural Trade Monitor (AATM), a flagship publication of
AKADEMIYA2063 and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
 AKADEMIYA2063’s COVID-19 portal, a broad data, analytics and communications
agenda on the impacts of and responses to the COVID-19 pandemic among African
countries.
 AKADEMIYA2063’s Assessment of the Impact of Ukraine Crisis on African
Economies, Analysis of the effects of global market disruptions on country terms of
trade, growth and employment, and poverty and food security effects.

7. www.akademiya2063.org
Africa Agricultural Trade Outlook Portal (AfTOP)
2023 AGRODEP Annual Conference
‘Building Resilient African Food Systems amid Health, Conflict and Climate Disruptions’
Kigali, Rwanda | 21-23 March 2023
AfTOP COMPONENTS

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Component 1 - Global Trade Outlook
Purpose
 Assess the implications of global primary commodity price shocks in Africa and estimate
their ramifications for the broader economy
Tasks
 Provide price outlook of primary commodities
 Assess the socio-economic impact of global price changes
Tools
 Machine learning technique to forecast the prices of primary commodity
 Single-country CGE models for economy-wide assessment
 Micro-Simulation (MS) models for income inequality and poverty assessment
Outputs
 Price forecast for 46 to 68 primary commodities
 Macro effects, i.e. ToT, real exchange rate, GDP, Employment, etc.
 Micro effects, i.e. income distribution and inequality, and poverty reduction

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Component 2 - Regional Trade Outlook
Purpose
 Identify critical factors, challenges and opportunities that drive regional agri-food sector
competitiveness
 Identify priority value chains with potential to be competitive and to drive regional and
national economic growth
Tasks
 Assess the trade performance and competitiveness of regional agricultural value chains
 Evaluate the long-term regional trade outlook and identify priority agricultural value chain
Tools
 Descriptive analysis of regional and overall agricultural trade and evaluate the trade
performance and competitiveness using a series of specific indicators
 Regional trade model to explore how supply and demand trends would shape long term
regional agricultural trade competitiveness and performance
 Macro-Micro model to capture the overall economic impact of regional agricultural trade
expansion
Outputs
 Trade performance and competitiveness
 long-term outlook for intra-regional trade of agri-food products
 Prioritization of agri-food value chains at country and regional levels

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Component 3 - Africa Agricultural Trade Monitor (AATM)
Purpose
 Provide a user-friendly digital interface of the AATM publications
Tasks
 Design the web-based layout of the AATM Report
 Create interactive, engaging content to disseminate the AATM flagship
Outputs
 AATM publications publicly available on the portal
 Rich content stream to promote the AATM and redirect visitors to the portal

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Component 4 - Ex-ante Assessment of the AfCFTA Agreement
Purpose
 Estimate the potential for agri-food trade under the AfCFTA agreement implementation
 Identify agricultural value chains with the highest competitive potential for each country
 Assess the socioeconomic impact of the AfCFTA agreement implementation
Tasks
 Measure the ad valorem equivalent of non-tariff barriers
 Assess the trade expansion implications of tariff and non-tariff barriers removal
 Evaluate the economic impacts of tariff and non-tariff barriers removal
Tools
 Gravity model to evaluate the ad valorem equivalent of non-tariff barriers
 Economywide Multi-Market (EMM) model to assess the trade expansion implications
 Regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models to measure the economic impact
Outputs
 Provide an ex-ante impact assessment of the AfCFTA agreement implementation
 Monitor the ex-post impact assessment of the AfCFTA agreement implementation

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Timeline (12 months) Key expertise
2023
Key Personnel
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Research and Analysis
Component 1. Global trade outlook A2063 research staff
• Senior Scientist, Trade & Economy-wide modeling
• Senior Associate Scientist, Trade & Economy-wide modeling
• Senior Scientist, Trade & Data Analysis
• Senior Associate Scientist, Trade & Data Analysis
AGRODEP Members
• AGRODEP AfCFTA Network
• AGRODEP trade modeling group
Activity 1.1
Activity 1.2
Component 2. Regional Trade Outlook
Activity 2.1
Activity 2.2
Component 3. Africa Agricultural Trade Monitor
Activity 3.1
Activity 3.2
Component 4. AfCFTA implementation
Activity 4.1
Activity 4.2
AfTOP Portal
Research and Analysis
• A2063 research staff
• Data-Centric Web Applications Manager
• Information Systems and Spatial Data Specialist
• Communication team
Tasks: Meetings to discuss features, types of
visualization, update frequency, data format,
periodicity, and disaggregation
Design
Tasks: Branding, features, technology selection,
content structure, wireframing
Development
Testing and quality assurance: Test to eliminate
any bugs, check functionality, usability, and
performance
Deployment
Capabilities and Implementation Timeframe

13. www.akademiya2063.org
Africa Agricultural Trade Outlook Portal (AfTOP)
2023 AGRODEP Annual Conference
‘Building Resilient African Food Systems amid Health, Conflict and Climate Disruptions’
Kigali, Rwanda | 21-23 March 2023
THANK YOU
MERCI