1.
Anaerobic Digestion Deployment in the United Kingdom
Lucy Hopwood
Lead Consultant – Bioenergy & Anaerobic Digestion
REA Biogas Group Meeting, London
01 December 2014

2.
Copyright © NNFCC 2014.
AD Deployment in the UK

3.
Copyright © NNFCC 2014.
AD Deployment in the UK
Definitions
Plant scale
•Small scale refers to installations with an installed capacity of 250kWe and below.
•Medium scale refers to installations with an installed capacity of above 250kWe to 500kWe.
•Large scale refers to installations with an installed capacity of above 500kWe.
Plant type
•Waste-fed refers to installations where the contribution of municipal (e.g. food waste; green waste), commercial (e.g. food waste) and industrial wastes (e.g. brewery waste; animal processing wastes) towards the total feedstock requirement is greater than 50%.
•Farm-fed refers to installations where the contribution of farm-based feedstocks (e.g. manure; slurry; energy crops; crop wastes) towards the total feedstock requirement is greater than 50%.

4.
Copyright © NNFCC 2014.
AD Deployment in the UK
•157 operational plants
–80 farm-fed (57.3 MWe)
–77 waste-fed (104.6 MWe)
•415 plants under development
–283 farm-fed (176.3 MWe)
–132 waste-fed (270.2 MWe
•29 biomethane-to-grid (BtG) projects
–5 operational plants
–24 plants under development

5.
Copyright © NNFCC 2014.
AD Deployment in the UK
•19 plants online since last report (15 farm-fed; 4 waste-fed)
•74 more plants undergoing development (70 farm-fed; 4 waste- fed)
•Clear movement towards the development of agricultural plant

6.
Copyright © NNFCC 2014.
AD Deployment in the UK
National Deployment
•Deployment currently strongest in England
•Attractive support under NIRO could see NI deployment increase over the next few years
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
United
Kingdom
England
Northern
Ireland
Scotland
Wales
Number of plants
Installed Capacity (MWe)
Operational (MWe)
In Development (MWe)
Operational
In Development
© NNFCC

7.
Copyright © NNFCC 2014.
AD Deployment in the UK
Regional Deployment
•Deployment strongest across the Midlands and Southern regions
•Deployment weakest in North East
•Broadly consistent distribution in other regions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
NW
NE
YH
WM
EM
EE
SW
SE
LDN
IoW
Number of plants
Installed Capacity (MWe)
Operational (MWe)
In Development (MWe)
Operational
In Development
© NNFCC

8.
Copyright © NNFCC 2014.
AD Deployment in the UK
Future Deployment
•If all plants under development completed capacity would quadruple by 2017
•However, only around 30- 50% of plants in pipeline expected to complete
•Consistent with existing linear deployment
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
pre
2005
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Cumulative Number of Plants
Cumulative Installed Capacity (MWe)
Farm-fed (MWe)
Waste-fed (MWe)
Farm-fed
Waste-fed
© NNFCC

9.
Copyright © NNFCC 2014.
AD Deployment in the UK
Deployment by scale
•Large scale plants currently dominate in terms of number and capacity
•Consistent growth across all scales, despite FiT degression for small and medium scale earlier in the year
•Deployment of small scale and BtG still at low level
•BtG sector anticipated for growth, although RHI tariff undergoing review
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Small scale
Medium scale
Large scale
BtG
Number of plants
Installed capacity (MWe)
Operational (MWe)
In Development (MWe)
Operational
In Development
© NNFCC

10.
Copyright © NNFCC 2014.
AD Deployment in the UK
Current feedstock requirements
•1,780,000 tpa food waste
•880,000 tpa energy crops
•830,000 tpa ‘other’ waste
•520,000 tpa manure/slurry
•220,000 tpa crop waste
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
pre
2005
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Feedstock Volumes (ktpa)
Manure/Slurry
Crop
Food Waste
Crop waste
Other
Manure/Slurry (Cum.)
Crop (Cum.)
Food Waste (Cum.)
Crop waste (Cum.)
Other (Cum.)
© NNFCC

11.
Copyright © NNFCC 2014.
AD Deployment in the UK
Projected (theoretical) feedstock requirements – March 2014
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
pre
2005
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Feedstock Volumes (ktpa)
Manure/Slurry
Crop
Food Waste
Crop waste
Other
Manure/Slurry (Cum.)
Crop (Cum.)
Food Waste (Cum.)
Crop waste (Cum.)
Other (Cum.)
© NNFCC

12.
Copyright © NNFCC 2014.
AD Deployment in the UK
Projected (theoretical) feedstock requirements – September 2014
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
pre
2005
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Feedstock Volumes (ktpa)
Manure/Slurry
Crop
Food Waste
Crop waste
Other
Manure/Slurry (Cum.)
Crop (Cum.)
Food Waste (Cum.)
Crop waste (Cum.)
Other (Cum.)
© NNFCC

13.
Copyright © NNFCC 2014.
AD Deployment in the UK
Projected feedstock requirements
•Balance of feedstock in projections changed noticeably over the last 6 months
– Food waste projections increased by under 200,000 tpa
–‘Other’ waste projections increased by 400,000 tpa
–Manure projections increased by just over 400,000 tpa
–Crop projections increased by almost 1.2 million tpa

14.
Copyright © NNFCC 2014.
AD Deployment in the UK
Food waste
•New report from Eunomia suggests the UK is near capacity with regards to volumes of available food waste entering AD
•NNFCC data provides further evidence for this notion
© Eunomia Research & Consulting; 2014

15.
Copyright © NNFCC 2014.
AD Deployment in the UK
Energy crops
•Large growth in anticipated demand for energy crops in AD
•Largely on account of the initiation of a number of very large scale crop- only projects in the East Midland and East of England
•Possible reasons:
–Large scale AD developers attracted towards crop feedstock as food waste approaches capacity
–FiT degression for small and medium scale AD has encouraged farm- based AD developers to consider larger scales than initially envisaged
–Biomethane-to-grid now becoming very attractive at scale

16.
Copyright © NNFCC 2014.
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
pre
2005
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Crop area (Ha)
Crop area
Crop area (Cum.)
AD Deployment in the UK
Required cropland
•Assuming an energy crop yield of 45 fresh tonnes/Ha the UK AD industry requires 19,500 Ha of land
•If all plants under development were to complete the UK AD industry would require 86,000 Ha of land (1.5% of UK crop land)
•Break crops often used for AD
© NNFCC

17.
Copyright © NNFCC 2014.
AD Deployment in the UK
Summary and future development
•Development pipeline remains strong despite FiT degression earlier in the year
•However, considerable challenges ahead for both the agriculture and food waste AD sectors
•Improved utilisation of slurries/manures, especially from poultry sector, could support increased deployment
•RHI could become a more stable form of support in the future and result in further BtG deployment

18.
Celebrating 10 years of Bioeconomy development
NNFCC is a UK based consultancy with expertise on the conversion of biomass to bioenergy, biofuels and biobased products.
We help industry solve complex business challenges and provide vital evidence for policy makers.
| | www.nnfcc.com | enquiries@nnfcc.co.uk
Lucy Hopwood, Lead Consultant – Bioenergy & Anaerobic Digestion l.hopwood@nnfcc.co.uk