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Anaerobic Digestion deployment in the UK

NNFCC
NNFCC

This paper on Anaerobic Digestion Deployment was presented to the Renewable Energy Association Biogas Group on 1st December 2014. It presents analysis from NNFCC’s AD Deployment report, illustrating recent trends, current status and future expectations of the AD industry in the UK. The analysis details the number and capacity of plants, by region, scale and type. Currently there are 157 operational plants and 415 plants in the development pipeline, all of which are included in this analysis.

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Anaerobic Digestion Deployment in the United Kingdom 
Lucy Hopwood 
Lead Consultant – Bioenergy & Anaerobic Digestion 
REA Biogas Group Meeting, London 
01 December 2014
Copyright © NNFCC 2014. 
AD Deployment in the UK
Copyright © NNFCC 2014. 
AD Deployment in the UK 
Definitions 
Plant scale 
•Small scale refers to installations with an installed capacity of 250kWe and below. 
•Medium scale refers to installations with an installed capacity of above 250kWe to 500kWe. 
•Large scale refers to installations with an installed capacity of above 500kWe. 
Plant type 
•Waste-fed refers to installations where the contribution of municipal (e.g. food waste; green waste), commercial (e.g. food waste) and industrial wastes (e.g. brewery waste; animal processing wastes) towards the total feedstock requirement is greater than 50%. 
•Farm-fed refers to installations where the contribution of farm-based feedstocks (e.g. manure; slurry; energy crops; crop wastes) towards the total feedstock requirement is greater than 50%.
Copyright © NNFCC 2014. 
AD Deployment in the UK 
•157 operational plants 
–80 farm-fed (57.3 MWe) 
–77 waste-fed (104.6 MWe) 
•415 plants under development 
–283 farm-fed (176.3 MWe) 
–132 waste-fed (270.2 MWe 
•29 biomethane-to-grid (BtG) projects 
–5 operational plants 
–24 plants under development
Copyright © NNFCC 2014. 
AD Deployment in the UK 
•19 plants online since last report (15 farm-fed; 4 waste-fed) 
•74 more plants undergoing development (70 farm-fed; 4 waste- fed) 
•Clear movement towards the development of agricultural plant
Copyright © NNFCC 2014. 
AD Deployment in the UK 
National Deployment 
•Deployment currently strongest in England 
•Attractive support under NIRO could see NI deployment increase over the next few years 
0 
50 
100 
150 
200 
250 
300 
350 
400 
450 
500 
0 
50 
100 
150 
200 
250 
300 
350 
400 
450 
500 
United 
Kingdom 
England 
Northern 
Ireland 
Scotland 
Wales 
Number of plants 
Installed Capacity (MWe) 
Operational (MWe) 
In Development (MWe) 
Operational 
In Development 
© NNFCC

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Anaerobic Digestion deployment in the UK

  • 1. Anaerobic Digestion Deployment in the United Kingdom Lucy Hopwood Lead Consultant – Bioenergy & Anaerobic Digestion REA Biogas Group Meeting, London 01 December 2014
  • 2. Copyright © NNFCC 2014. AD Deployment in the UK
  • 3. Copyright © NNFCC 2014. AD Deployment in the UK Definitions Plant scale •Small scale refers to installations with an installed capacity of 250kWe and below. •Medium scale refers to installations with an installed capacity of above 250kWe to 500kWe. •Large scale refers to installations with an installed capacity of above 500kWe. Plant type •Waste-fed refers to installations where the contribution of municipal (e.g. food waste; green waste), commercial (e.g. food waste) and industrial wastes (e.g. brewery waste; animal processing wastes) towards the total feedstock requirement is greater than 50%. •Farm-fed refers to installations where the contribution of farm-based feedstocks (e.g. manure; slurry; energy crops; crop wastes) towards the total feedstock requirement is greater than 50%.
  • 4. Copyright © NNFCC 2014. AD Deployment in the UK •157 operational plants –80 farm-fed (57.3 MWe) –77 waste-fed (104.6 MWe) •415 plants under development –283 farm-fed (176.3 MWe) –132 waste-fed (270.2 MWe •29 biomethane-to-grid (BtG) projects –5 operational plants –24 plants under development
  • 5. Copyright © NNFCC 2014. AD Deployment in the UK •19 plants online since last report (15 farm-fed; 4 waste-fed) •74 more plants undergoing development (70 farm-fed; 4 waste- fed) •Clear movement towards the development of agricultural plant
  • 6. Copyright © NNFCC 2014. AD Deployment in the UK National Deployment •Deployment currently strongest in England •Attractive support under NIRO could see NI deployment increase over the next few years 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 United Kingdom England Northern Ireland Scotland Wales Number of plants Installed Capacity (MWe) Operational (MWe) In Development (MWe) Operational In Development © NNFCC
  • 7. Copyright © NNFCC 2014. AD Deployment in the UK Regional Deployment •Deployment strongest across the Midlands and Southern regions •Deployment weakest in North East •Broadly consistent distribution in other regions 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 NW NE YH WM EM EE SW SE LDN IoW Number of plants Installed Capacity (MWe) Operational (MWe) In Development (MWe) Operational In Development © NNFCC
  • 8. Copyright © NNFCC 2014. AD Deployment in the UK Future Deployment •If all plants under development completed capacity would quadruple by 2017 •However, only around 30- 50% of plants in pipeline expected to complete •Consistent with existing linear deployment 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 pre 2005 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Cumulative Number of Plants Cumulative Installed Capacity (MWe) Farm-fed (MWe) Waste-fed (MWe) Farm-fed Waste-fed © NNFCC
  • 9. Copyright © NNFCC 2014. AD Deployment in the UK Deployment by scale •Large scale plants currently dominate in terms of number and capacity •Consistent growth across all scales, despite FiT degression for small and medium scale earlier in the year •Deployment of small scale and BtG still at low level •BtG sector anticipated for growth, although RHI tariff undergoing review 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Small scale Medium scale Large scale BtG Number of plants Installed capacity (MWe) Operational (MWe) In Development (MWe) Operational In Development © NNFCC
  • 10. Copyright © NNFCC 2014. AD Deployment in the UK Current feedstock requirements •1,780,000 tpa food waste •880,000 tpa energy crops •830,000 tpa ‘other’ waste •520,000 tpa manure/slurry •220,000 tpa crop waste 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 pre 2005 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Feedstock Volumes (ktpa) Manure/Slurry Crop Food Waste Crop waste Other Manure/Slurry (Cum.) Crop (Cum.) Food Waste (Cum.) Crop waste (Cum.) Other (Cum.) © NNFCC
  • 11. Copyright © NNFCC 2014. AD Deployment in the UK Projected (theoretical) feedstock requirements – March 2014 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 pre 2005 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Feedstock Volumes (ktpa) Manure/Slurry Crop Food Waste Crop waste Other Manure/Slurry (Cum.) Crop (Cum.) Food Waste (Cum.) Crop waste (Cum.) Other (Cum.) © NNFCC
  • 12. Copyright © NNFCC 2014. AD Deployment in the UK Projected (theoretical) feedstock requirements – September 2014 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 pre 2005 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Feedstock Volumes (ktpa) Manure/Slurry Crop Food Waste Crop waste Other Manure/Slurry (Cum.) Crop (Cum.) Food Waste (Cum.) Crop waste (Cum.) Other (Cum.) © NNFCC
  • 13. Copyright © NNFCC 2014. AD Deployment in the UK Projected feedstock requirements •Balance of feedstock in projections changed noticeably over the last 6 months – Food waste projections increased by under 200,000 tpa –‘Other’ waste projections increased by 400,000 tpa –Manure projections increased by just over 400,000 tpa –Crop projections increased by almost 1.2 million tpa
  • 14. Copyright © NNFCC 2014. AD Deployment in the UK Food waste •New report from Eunomia suggests the UK is near capacity with regards to volumes of available food waste entering AD •NNFCC data provides further evidence for this notion © Eunomia Research & Consulting; 2014
  • 15. Copyright © NNFCC 2014. AD Deployment in the UK Energy crops •Large growth in anticipated demand for energy crops in AD •Largely on account of the initiation of a number of very large scale crop- only projects in the East Midland and East of England •Possible reasons: –Large scale AD developers attracted towards crop feedstock as food waste approaches capacity –FiT degression for small and medium scale AD has encouraged farm- based AD developers to consider larger scales than initially envisaged –Biomethane-to-grid now becoming very attractive at scale
  • 16. Copyright © NNFCC 2014. 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 pre 2005 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Crop area (Ha) Crop area Crop area (Cum.) AD Deployment in the UK Required cropland •Assuming an energy crop yield of 45 fresh tonnes/Ha the UK AD industry requires 19,500 Ha of land •If all plants under development were to complete the UK AD industry would require 86,000 Ha of land (1.5% of UK crop land) •Break crops often used for AD © NNFCC
  • 17. Copyright © NNFCC 2014. AD Deployment in the UK Summary and future development •Development pipeline remains strong despite FiT degression earlier in the year •However, considerable challenges ahead for both the agriculture and food waste AD sectors •Improved utilisation of slurries/manures, especially from poultry sector, could support increased deployment •RHI could become a more stable form of support in the future and result in further BtG deployment
  • 18. Celebrating 10 years of Bioeconomy development NNFCC is a UK based consultancy with expertise on the conversion of biomass to bioenergy, biofuels and biobased products. We help industry solve complex business challenges and provide vital evidence for policy makers. | | www.nnfcc.com | enquiries@nnfcc.co.uk Lucy Hopwood, Lead Consultant – Bioenergy & Anaerobic Digestion l.hopwood@nnfcc.co.uk